Sox Batting Order

maverick4 said:

Well, many would say that a predictor of future performance is past performance, and aside from injury, Ortiz and Bay have been great producers.

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Past performance needs to be adjusted for circumstance, and normal performance for a 34 year old DH built like Papi is decline. Papi is past his prime, and any projection should contain that.

Youkilis's past, OTOH, shows that hes still improving, and just entering his prime.


Bay should be great though.

I'm very excited for this year's team. Lots of great young pitching all the way across the board, and the core of the team is now the young guys.

I still think Ortiz has a great year left in him though, his wrist is healed now and he is hitting the crap out of the ball in pre-season.

Synovia said:

What david ortiz and jason bay HAVE DONE is irrelevant. What they will do next year is what is relevant, and David Ortiz is old, declined last year, and has injury issues. Kevin Youkilis, on the other hand, is a stud just coming into his prime, and has improved every year.

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I just want to point out that Youk's 2008 could very easily be a repeat of Trot Nixon's 2003. Both players, in their age 29 season, had a career year well above past performance. Nixon never again reached that level of production, and the assumption that Youk definitely will seems misguided.

I agree that age has possibly removed Ortiz from the equation, but I feel much more comfortable assuming Bay will have another great season due to his past performance. Bay's past tells us that he can sustain excellence.

Youk's one season of greatness could be the beginning of a great 3-year stretch or it could be an age 29 career year.

Synovia said:

Youkilis's past, OTOH, shows that hes still improving, and just entering his prime.

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He's 29. He entered his prime a couple years ago. He just realized his potential last year, likely due to his late start in becoming a full-time player at 27.

The Trot Nixon example is a great point. I hope Youk doesn't regress, but you never know based on 1 great year.

Trot Nixon's production fell off the table because he had back problems.

TomBrady'sGoat said:

I just want to point out that Youk's 2008 could very easily be a repeat of Trot Nixon's 2003. Both players, in their age 29 season, had a career year well above past performance. Nixon never again reached that level of production, and the assumption that Youk definitely will seems misguided..

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I'm not saying Youk definitely will, I'm saying the chances of him hitting .300/.380/.550 (he hit 310/390/570 last year) are greater than the chances of Ortiz hitting the same. David Ortiz is the exact type of build that declines rapidly (big, slow, most value based on power), and he missed time due to multiple injuries last year.

Ortiz's potential production is higher than Youk's, but the chance that he hits it is much much lower.



As to entering his prime a while ago, SABR believes the prime age is 28.5....IE right where Youk is. Power tends to develop right around that age, not earlier.

WhiskeyBreath said:

Trot Nixon's production fell off the table because he had back problems.

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but he didn't fall off a table. he went back to where he was before his career year, before eventually falling off in 2006. Injuries kept him off the field a bit in '04 and '05 but didn't noticably affect his play when he was healthy. Nixon followed a fairly normal career path.

Synovia said:

I'm not saying Youk definitely will, I'm saying the chances of him hitting .300/.380/.550 (he hit 310/390/570 last year) are greater than the chances of Ortiz hitting the same. David Ortiz is the exact type of build that declines rapidly (big, slow, most value based on power), and he missed time due to multiple injuries last year.

Ortiz's potential production is higher than Youk's, but the chance that he hits it is much much lower.



As to entering his prime a while ago, SABR believes the prime age is 28.5....IE right where Youk is. Power tends to develop right around that age, not earlier.

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I agree with you on Ortiz, which is why I went away from him and focused on Bay as someone who can be expected to be great due to consistant past greatness (something which Youk doesn't have).

Youk is 30. He was just as close to his prime at 27 as he is now. And since you said he was entering his prime (which happens around 27) I felt the correction was necessary. If you figure a player's prime is 27-30 he is actually at the end of it.

I think (and hope) Youk can have another outstanding year, I just won't be surprised if he drops off a bit. And expecting him to improve (your words - "he's still improving") seems a bit farfetched.

TomBrady'sGoat said:

but he didn't fall off a table. he went back to where he was before his career year, before eventually falling off in 2006. Injuries kept him off the field a bit in '04 and '05 but didn't noticably affect his play when he was healthy. Nixon followed a fairly normal career path.

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That's incorrect.

WhiskeyBreath said:

That's incorrect.

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care to elaborate?

Year - OPS+

1999 - 107
2000 - 106
2001 - 128
2002 - 110
2003 - 149
2004 - 123 (only 167 PAs in 48 games)
2005 - 109
2006 - 96

That supports my statement pretty well. Did you think I didn't bother to look up his stats before I said that?

Nixon put up 3 pretty good seasons just as he was entering his prime. He herniated a disk the next year and never was the same type of hitter again. How the hell is that not falling off the table because of a back injury?

WhiskeyBreath said:

Nixon put up 3 pretty good seasons just as he was entering his prime. He herniated a disk the next year and never was the same type of hitter again. How the hell is that not falling off the table because of a back injury?

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Except for the fact that he posted the same OPS+ two years after his career year that he did the year before his career year. He lost some slugging but was still a good hitter until 2006

And people here have really got to stop abusing the phrase "entering his prime." 29-30 is not entering prime years. 29-30 is ending one's prime. 26-27 is entering one's prime. People act like a player's prime is their 4th or 5th year in the majors regardless age.

Nixon and Youk are both players who went to college and spent awhile in the minors so they didn't play full-time until 25 or 26. They entered their prime in their 2nd or 3rd year. If you assume a prime is 3 years then they're exiting theirs by years 4 or 5.

From '01 to '03, Nixon's age 27-29 seasons and his 3rd-5th years playing full-time, he had a very good (OPS+ 128), good (110), and great season (149). Those were his prime years. He then tailed off (in part due to injuries, which happen more frequently as you age) with seasons of 123 and 109 before falling off in '06 with a 96. That is a normal career path.

TomBrady'sGoat said:

E
And people here have really got to stop abusing the phrase "entering his prime." 29-30 is not entering prime years. 29-30 is ending one's prime. 26-27 is entering one's prime. People act like a player's prime is their 4th or 5th year in the majors regardless age.

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I think the steroids era has skewed the idea of when the prime years are. I think with more crackdown on the drugs, the prime years are going to be around 27'ish, what it used to be. And careers will probably end a lot earlier, like before, around 35'ish.

TomBrady'sGoat said:

And people here have really got to stop abusing the phrase "entering his prime." 29-30 is not entering prime years. 29-30 is ending one's prime. 26-27 is entering one's prime. People act like a player's prime is their 4th or 5th year in the majors regardless age.

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SABR disagrees.


Players often don't reach their power potential till about 30. Power is the last of the tools to develope.

I don't really agree with the idea of prime years. A player is more likely to put up great numbers at 27 than at 32 because they have less wear and tear on their bodies, not because 32 is past their prime. If a player can remain healthy, their performance at 32 will be just as good, if not better than it was at 27. The problem is that staying healthy into your 30s is extremely difficult.

When studies attempt to find "prime years" they see that most guys hit better at 27-29 as opposed to 30+, and they conclude that a player looses their skills in their early 30s. If it takes into account injuries, it will show that a healthy 32 year old can match their performance from 27.

The inevitability of injuries make it unlikely that Youkilis 2011 will hit like Youkilis 2008, not that he reached a pre-set prime year.

Foley said:

I don't really agree with the idea of prime years. A player is more likely to put up great numbers at 27 than at 32 because they have less wear and tear on their bodies, not because 32 is past their prime. If a player can remain healthy, their performance at 32 will be just as good, if not better than it was at 27. The problem is that staying healthy into your 30s is extremely difficult.

When studies attempt to find "prime years" they see that most guys hit better at 27-29 as opposed to 30+, and they conclude that a player looses their skills in their early 30s. If it takes into account injuries, it will show that a healthy 32 year old can match their performance from 27.

The inevitability of injuries make it unlikely that Youkilis 2011 will hit like Youkilis 2008, not that he reached a pre-set prime year.

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I never limited being past your prime with just a decline in skills. I think the wear and tear factor, and the body's decreasing ability to recuperate is also part of being past your prime. Semantical argument maybe. A lot of players have a huge power surge around age 29 though, and usually age 27 is when raw skills and peak physical condition first meet experience.

Wildo7 said:

I never limited being past your prime with just a decline in skills. I think the wear and tear factor, and the body's decreasing ability to recuperate is also part of being past your prime. Semantical argument maybe. A lot of players have a huge power surge around age 29 though, and usually age 27 is when raw skills and peak physical condition first meet experience.

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True. My main argument is that I think the wear and tear and injury aspect are almost completely to blame for a player to decline in their early 30s. I just don't think that a player is a sure bet to fall down hill after 30-31, unless they have an injury history that would give you reason to believe that is the case.

TomBrady'sGoat said:

Except for the fact that he posted the same OPS+ two years after his career year that he did the year before his career year. He lost some slugging but was still a good hitter until 2006

And people here have really got to stop abusing the phrase "entering his prime." 29-30 is not entering prime years. 29-30 is ending one's prime. 26-27 is entering one's prime. People act like a player's prime is their 4th or 5th year in the majors regardless age.

Nixon and Youk are both players who went to college and spent awhile in the minors so they didn't play full-time until 25 or 26. They entered their prime in their 2nd or 3rd year. If you assume a prime is 3 years then they're exiting theirs by years 4 or 5.

From '01 to '03, Nixon's age 27-29 seasons and his 3rd-5th years playing full-time, he had a very good (OPS+ 128), good (110), and great season (149). Those were his prime years. He then tailed off (in part due to injuries, which happen more frequently as you age) with seasons of 123 and 109 before falling off in '06 with a 96. That is a normal career path.

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You seem to be too fixated on just OPS+. After Trot's back started to act up, he no longer was a home run threat. However, he did maintain a good walk rate and a decent average.

how stupid is this thread lmao. youk is on fire.

I'm not exactly sure if I would change the batting order. I would love to see bay in the 5 spot however as i think he'll play more games than Nancy will this year. I know thelefty right thing :blahblah: I also think Bay could hit for more power if that was his job. Would it change our production much ??? We're not the old Red Sox here and i think that is what fans need to get used to. We still have that bash the ball mentality for some reason ... this team is not about that anymore. This team is based on consitency and production which will be there ... a bit better if Ortiz gets it going and a bit less if his career peaked several years ago.

I'm worried about Papi. Today (Patriots Day) he got his second extra base hit in 13 games-no homers and hitting .191. Injuries? I dunno, but we'll never make the playoffs if he keeps this up while batting in the three hole.

Meanwhile the pen has been outstanding-four game sweep against the O's, and only one earned run by the relievers.