Solve a bet (NFL Coin Toss)

DougGabriel2007 · Jan 18, 2009

How often does the team who wins the toss elect to receive?

Patjew · Jan 18, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
How often does the team who wins the toss elect to receive?

More often than you change your screen name?

JoePats · Jan 18, 2009

Nice line...

It used to be always. But now you can defer so it's still more than 50% but not close to always.

Up through last year if you chose to receive, and then the other team would choose to receive in the 2nd half. If you chose to kick, the other team would get the ball twice.

Now, you can choose to defer your decision to the 2nd half, which wasn't an option before.

Patjew · Jan 18, 2009

I think virtually every team defers now.

DougGabriel2007 · Jan 18, 2009

JoePats, are you sure about that?

I think choosing to receive the ball in the 2nd half was always an option...

JoePats · Jan 18, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
JoePats, are you sure about that?

I think choosing to receive the ball in the 2nd half was always an option...

Pretty sure. That's why they changed the rule.

xmarkd400x · Jan 18, 2009

Most teams defer to the second half.

I believe it's because you have a chance to get more possessions during the game.

DougGabriel2007 · Jan 19, 2009

You might be right....

I think teams always had the option to kick or receive to start the game though and get the ball in the second half and are just doing it more now....

Deus Irae · Jan 19, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
You might be right....

I think teams always had the option to kick or receive to start the game though and get the ball in the second half and are just doing it more now....

No, you did not have the option of taking the ball to begin the second half prior to the rule change.

DougGabriel2007 · Jan 19, 2009

Sure about that Deus? I thought you always had that option....

Hell, I know I did in video games...

signbabybrady · Jan 19, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
Sure about that Deus? I thought you always had that option....

Hell, I know I did in video games...

A video game like Madden doesn't revisit the choice in the second half it just goes the opposite of what was used in the first half at least it did in the past with differing an option I don't know if they added that into the game too.

You are probably thinking college if you think that was how it was in the past.

DougGabriel2007 · Jan 19, 2009

So basically prior to this year you HAD to take the ball in the first half or else you would possibly not get it in the first or second half?

If that is true, I am curious what % of teams chose to get the ball in the first half or to defer this year? Anyone know that?

signbabybrady · Jan 19, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
So basically prior to this year you HAD to take the ball in the first half or else you would possibly not get it in the first or second half?

If that is true, I am curious what % of teams chose to get the ball in the first half or to defer this year? Anyone know that?

I think you could chose the Wind.....The other team would than have to decide if they wanted the Ball (which they obviously would).

patchick · Jan 19, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
If that is true, I am curious what % of teams chose to get the ball in the first half or to defer this year? Anyone know that?

In college the overwhelming majority choose to defer, but NFL coaches are creatures of habit. Early in the season, at least, they were choosing to receive about half the time (15 out 32 games in the first 2 weeks of the season).

godef · Jan 20, 2009

xmarkd400x said:
Most teams defer to the second half.

I believe it's because you have a chance to get more possessions during the game.

No... the chances are still equal. Whoever gets the kick-off to begin a half will either have equal possessions or 1 more for that half. So both teams will get this opportunity of a 1-possesion advantage in a half, presuming the teams trade kick-offs in the two halves.

I think the reason teams like deferring to the second half is to avoid the chance of giving the other team suceeding possessions (to end the first half and start the second). This could be a huge momentum swing if that team scores in each of those drives. Deferring the kick-off to the second half eliminates this possibility for the team that wins the coin flip.

DougGabriel2007 · Jan 21, 2009

Anyone know what the % of teams choosing the ball or deferring to take it in the 2nd half was for the entire year?

tuckeverlasting · Jan 21, 2009

godef said:
No... the chances are still equal. Whoever gets the kick-off to begin a half will either have equal possessions or 1 more for that half. So both teams will get this opportunity of a 1-possesion advantage in a half, presuming the teams trade kick-offs in the two halves.

I think the reason teams like deferring to the second half is to avoid the chance of giving the other team suceeding possessions (to end the first half and start the second). This could be a huge momentum swing if that team scores in each of those drives. Deferring the kick-off to the second half eliminates this possibility for the team that wins the coin flip.

i like when the pats defer and receive in the second half because that's when most games are won or lost.

BradyBranch39 · Jan 21, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
So basically prior to this year you HAD to take the ball in the first half or else you would possibly not get it in the first or second half?

yes, but more than possibly. there would have had to be to be tornadic winds for you to get it in the 2nd after not taking it in the first.

Synovia · Jan 21, 2009

godef said:
No... the chances are still equal. Whoever gets the kick-off to begin a half will either have equal possessions or 1 more for that half. So both teams will get this opportunity of a 1-possesion advantage in a half, presuming the teams trade kick-offs in the two halves.

I think the reason teams like deferring to the second half is to avoid the chance of giving the other team suceeding possessions (to end the first half and start the second). This could be a huge momentum swing if that team scores in each of those drives. Deferring the kick-off to the second half eliminates this possibility for the team that wins the coin flip.

No, its because if you pick the wind first, then the other team chooses the ball. They get to pick in the second half, and they chose the ball again.

At this point, you can defer. When you defer, they have to chose to receive, or otherwise, you're going to be receiving in both halves. So you defer, they pick receive, you pick the wind. Second half, you receive, they chose the wind.

Previously, there was no way to chose the wind (if you won the toss) in the first half without kicking off to start both halves. Now, there is.

signbabybrady · Jan 21, 2009

DougGabriel2007 said:
Anyone know what the % of teams choosing the ball or deferring to take it in the 2nd half was for the entire year?

50 percent

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