CHFF: Pulse of the 2008 Pats

WEEI 850AM Sports Radio - Taking Pulse of the 2008 Patriots

THE OVERALL PROGNOSIS


We’ll give it to you straight, folks: the vitals signs are not good.


Quite frankly, the Patriots display all the symptoms of a football team on the back nine of a dynasty or a suddenly limp patient of pigskin who realizes that he a needs little blue pill to perform like he did in the past.


As recently as 2005, the Patriots could proudly proclaim that they had won three of the past four Super Bowls.


But in 2006, they suffered the greatest second-half collapse in conference championship game history, losing to the Colts 38-35 after holding a 21-3 first-half lead.


Then in 2007, they became the greatest team not to win a Super Bowl.


And here in 2008, they became the best team in the Super Bowl Era that failed to reach the playoffs.


That’s a long list of negative superlatives in recent years. And the defense has been the culprit. It fell apart in the second half of the 2006 AFC title game. Then it surrendered two fourth-quarter touchdowns to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII, after holding New York to three points through three quarters. And, finally, the defense this year hijacked what could have been a Super Bowl-worthy team.


The most disconcerting part is that somewhere along the way, after their 2004 Super Bowl title, the Patriots organization made a deal with the devil that simply hasn’t worked out, putting the bulk of its efforts into building a high-powered offense at the expense of its defense.


Perhaps the organization was tired of the biggest complaint about it from 2001 to 2004: the complaints that they were boring and that they won ugly.


But they won.


The Patriots will have a Super Bowl-caliber offense for the foreseeable future, apparently no matter who plays quarterback. The key now is to build a defense that’s consistently Super Bowl-worthy, like it was earlier in the decade.

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i long to see a baltimore style defense here in NE .its been a while now

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

Sadly, all the other teams in the NFL would give their right testicle just to have a 'failing' record like that, but here it's a sign of decay. I don't see a downward trend, just a need for less injuries. For me the sky is the limit. Every year is different.

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

were getting there

slowly, but surely

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

I guess technically they improved the offense at the expense of the defense. But really it was two moves, Moss and Welker. Moss came for a 4th round pick and took a big pay-cut. A no-brainer. And Welker, a 2nd round pick and a ridiculously bargain contract. Another no-brainer. They didn't overpay for either one. Everyone else on the offense was either already in place (Brady, some OL), or playing at very inexpensive contracts.

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Some one please explain to me how a team goes 11-5 with out the MVP of the league last year (due to freak injury and not deteriating body which would be reason to say back 9) and is in the back 9. if we are in the back 9 it is hole 10 and not 18 which would put us right in the middle of it.

Brady, Moss, Welker, and the O-line return next season so no real concerns on offense and you have the rookie of the year on defense to go with some other studs who will return next year and really only need a star in the secondary to make it right and everything else will make it nasty.

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

SVN said:

i long to see a baltimoe style defense here in NE .its been a while now

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Regarding that article about the 'deal with the devil'....

I agree. We need to keep McDaniels out of the scouting/drafting process and out of the draft room. We have wasted so many high picks on offensive players ever since McDaniels got OC control in 2005. He knows that he looks good when we spend more resources on his side of the ball, but that has weakened the team.

We need to go back to punishing defense and ball control offense

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It seems to me that the last few years the Patriots have been more focused on improving the defense.

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To be fair its not far off

We need a CB, SS and OLB and we'd have a quality defense in my book.

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

signbabybrady said:

Some one please explain to me how a team goes 11-5 with out the MVP of the league last year (due to freak injury and not deteriating body which would be reason to say back 9) and is in the back 9.

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Same reason a Florida resident calls 70 degree weather "cold", and an Arizona team that wins their division at 9-7 is considered an "accomplishment".

Relativity. When you get accustomed to a good thing, you become disgusted with what you once would kill for.

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

maverick4 said:

Regarding that article about the 'deal with the devil'....

I agree. We need to keep McDaniels out of the scouting/drafting process and out of the draft room. We have wasted so many high picks on offensive players ever since McDaniels got OC control in 2005. He knows that he looks good when we spend more resources on his side of the ball, but that has weakened the team.

We need to go back to punishing defense and ball control offense

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The other day it was ever since Dimitroff left we started picking offensive guys in draft. Now it is McDaniels fault? Do you really think McDaniels overrules BB and Pioli on draft day? Did we not take Graham and Watson in the first round prior to McDaniels becoming the OC? Not to mention that last year's draft was all defense except for O'Connel. The year before they took Merriweather in the first round. I see an equal balance between offense and defense in our drafts from the past few of seasons.

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

JoeShmoe said:

To be fair its not far off

We need a CB, SS and OLB and we'd have a quality defense in my book.

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Good. And let's draft a DL, preferably someone with some pass rushing skills. And on the other side, a young, reliable RB who can not only run, but also block and catch passes. And a stud LT, and a TE who can block and catch, and WR with hands of glue....

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

Keep the hate coming, it's fuel for the fire.

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Between naming Pollard DPOY and this garbage (13 players to the IR including TFB, Adalius Thomas, Maroney, first team to miss the playoffs with 11 wins since the new format, as the team was starting to peak and round into form, etc. and we're a team on the decline?!?!?!?), CHFF has jumped the shark in a huge huge huge way.

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What an intellectually dishonest line of crap that guy's selling.

Was our defense a liability this year? Yes. But it doesn't logically follow that the Pats haven't been putting enough effort or resources into it. Not all investments deliver returns at equal rates, after all.

Look, since Belichick took over, here's how our 1st round picks have gone:

Offense:
Dan Graham, TE (21st)
Ben Watson, TE (32st)
Logan Mankins, OT (32nd)
Laurence Maroney, RB (21st)

Richard Seymour, DE (7th)
Ty Warren, DE (13th)
Vince Wilfork (21st)
Brandon Merriweather (24th)
Jerod Mayo (10th)

Notice a trend? Any time the Pats have picked in the top half of the draft, they've gone defense. So the 5 picks to 4 split is even more favored towards the defensive end in terms of overall value.

Now, let's look at major FA acquisitions. The Pats gave up top market level contracts to Rosevelt Colvin in '03, and Adalius Thomas in '07. Can you name a single time the Pats paid out a big, long-term contract to an offensive FA? The closest we really came was Donte' Stallworth, but the Pats bailed on that before having to pay any serious bonus money.

What about trades, you ask. For the offense, the Pats traded 2nd rounds picks for Corey Dillon + Wes Welker, and a 4th round pick for Randy Moss, but also traded WR Deion Branch for a 1st round pick. On the defensive end, the Pats traded a 4th round player for Ted Washington, a 3rd round player for Duane Starks.

What stands out here isn't a disproportionate value of draft picks being invested in the offense so much as a RIDICULOUSLY high rate of returns on the offensive side. Wes Welker for a 2nd now is recognizable as a steal, and Randy Moss for a 4th was an absurdly lucky circumstance -- do you think if a disgruntled Ed Reed were available for a 4th and $3 million, that Belichick wouldn't have pulled the trigger on that one?

Meanwhile, the disproportionate rate of returns has also run the same way in terms of bargain-basement FA pickups. The Pats sign guys like Fernando Bryant, Monte Beisel, Chad Brown, Chad Scott, etc. and none of them work out. Meanwhile, Jabar Gaffney, Sammie Morris and now Lamont Jordan all seem to pan out rather well considering their low initial cost.

So before you go spouting off about some "unholy deal with the devil" about improving the offense at the expense of the defense, why don't you take the time to briefly go over the actual resources devoted to each, instead of just assuming that because the defense has made you unhappy, it must therefore have been neglected.

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CHFF was once "must read" material for me, and their work on the Manning/Brady comparisons was truly comprehensive and quality work. However, the quality of that site has really declined in the past two seasons. I hope that they are able to reverse that, because it has fallen from "must read" to "Ehh... I've read every other bookmarked site on my browser, so I might as well".

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

Sicilian said:

Same reason a Florida resident calls 70 degree weather "cold", and an Arizona team that wins their division at 9-7 is considered an "accomplishment".

Relativity. When you get accustomed to a good thing, you become disgusted with what you once would kill for.

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Yeah, weird column. In the past three years, the Pats have lacked players and have certainly lacked the breaks necessary to win Super Bowls. They drafted three LBs and signed one more after the draft. They drafted two DBs in the first four rounds. This year they have three picks in the first two rounds, and if they get a late third for Asante, that's five picks in three rounds.

How would the Niners have done losing Montana and Ronnie Lott?
Any question that NE has a chance to be much improved next year?

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

Deus Irae said:

CHFF was once "must read" material for me, and their work on the Manning/Brady comparisons was truly comprehensive and quality work. However, the quality of that site has really declined in the past two seasons. I hope that they are able to reverse that, because it has fallen from "must read" to "Ehh... I've read every other bookmarked site on my browser, so I might as well".

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Unfortunately CHFF is Pats-centric and true to it's "cold, hard" name. When the Pats were dominant they wrote about their dominance. When the Pats were struggling they wrote about that. So over the past 4 years they've leaned more towards "Pats struggling". Keep in mind it's "struggling" relative to the SB-winning years.

Re: CHFFulse of the 2008 Pats

Deus Irae said:

CHFF was once "must read" material for me, and their work on the Manning/Brady comparisons was truly comprehensive and quality work. However, the quality of that site has really declined in the past two seasons. I hope that they are able to reverse that, because it has fallen from "must read" to "Ehh... I've read every other bookmarked site on my browser, so I might as well".

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Agreed.

Their thesis has some points but ignores the 2008 draft emphasis on D which requires time (except for Mayo!!!) to pay full dividends. I expect 2009 to produce at least 1 drafted D frequent player, probably 2 by year's end and likely a FA starter on D as well. It also ignores the devastating rash of IR guys and those who were still on the IR bubble (Bruschi) just before the playoffs.

Would CHFF have wanted our 2007 2nd and 4th picks used on Welker & Moss to have gone anywhere else??? NFW!

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That's one way of looking at it. But guess what? Geting to and winning a Super Bowl is hard -- you need a few breaks along the way. Had Asante caught the duck lofted by the great Eli in the fourth quarter, the Pats win the SB and they are the Greatest Team of All Time at 19-0. One dropped ball changed the story line.

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It is all about rings. Look at our record over the last few years and ask how many teams would like to be in that sort of decline. 2001 was not as talented a team, but won a championship. WHen you win championships, flaws are invisible, when you don't, they are magnified.