What's with the Pats inability to stop passes in the 10-20 yard range?

People keep asking this in various ways, but they really aren't asking the question: they are venting in disguise. The reasons for the struggles are obvious:

2 rookies at ILB
Thomas injured and replaced by Woods
Loss of Harrington
Loss of Tank
Meriweather pressed into full-time action alongside Sanders
No Junior
Injury to Wheatley
Inability to get DeAngelo Hall when he became available
Horrendous play by O'Neal

Or, to put it another way, does anyone really think this defense wouldn't be better with a lineup of

Warren
Wilfork
Seymour
Thomas
Vrabel
Bruschi/Guyton/Mayo/Seau
Hobbs
Hall
Wheatley (nickel)
Sanders/Meriweather/Harrison/Tank

I look at this defense and I see the lost opportunity, but I put most of the reason behind that on a series of injuries and the resultant liberal use of rookies, "rookies" and second year players rather than poor talent or poor lineup construction.

Deus Irae said:

Loss of Harrington

Click to expand...

You're not suggesting we should have picked up Joey over Cassel...

Typeos aside I don't really disagree with you, I'm just not all that comfortable leaving it at "injuries are making this happen". We won the Super Bowl with Ty Law on the sidelines and Troy Brown playing CB, along with guys like Poole and Gay who were subsequently cut a couple seasons later. Doesn't lineup construction include the depth to deal properly with injuries? Either way the coaches are suspect here.

Two Words.

Pass Rush.

Why can't we get some LB's like the Pittsburgh Steelers? see how fast they are off the Edge.

Deus Irae said:

People keep asking this in various ways, but they really aren't asking the question: they are venting in disguise. The reasons for the struggles are obvious:

2 rookies at ILB
Thomas injured and replaced by Woods
Loss of Harrington
Loss of Tank
Meriweather pressed into full-time action alongside Sanders
No Junior
Injury to Wheatley
Inability to get DeAngelo Hall when he became available
Horrendous play by O'Neal

Or, to put it another way, does anyone really think this defense wouldn't be better with a lineup of

Warren
Wilfork
Seymour
Thomas
Vrabel
Bruschi/Guyton/Mayo/Seau
Hobbs
Hall
Wheatley (nickel)
Sanders/Meriweather/Harrison/Tank

I look at this defense and I see the lost opportunity, but I put most of the reason behind that on a series of injuries and the resultant liberal use of rookies, "rookies" and second year players rather than poor talent or poor lineup construction.

Click to expand...

I totally agree with you. However, in 2001, BB did not have the correct personell he wanted in order to run HIS defense. What did he do? Adapted to the conditions and rotated with a 4-3 defense designed to bring pressure. This year, the defense hasn't adapted to those losses like it has in the past. I think that's more or less the question that's on most peoples minds. People that watch this team KNOW what's going on with the defense. As you said, they aren't asking the right questions. Right now, the question I have is: why are we having such trouble adapting to these injuries on the move?

According to NFL.com, the Patriots defense is the 4th worst in the league on 3rd down, better than only the Colts, Chiefs, and Bengals. I have to imagine the Patriots are the worst in 3rd and long situations.

Looking up the games and finding their 3rd and double-digit yards situations, this is what I found. Positive outcome Negative outcome

Week 1

4Q

3-13-KC 17 (10:12) (Shotgun) 11-D.Huard pass short right to 80-J.Webb to KC 23 for 6 yards (29-L.Sanders).
4-7-KC 23 (9:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NE 36, Center-51-J.Darche. 21-D.O'Neal to NE 38 for 2 yards (52-E.Walden, 51-J.Darche).

Week 2

2Q

3-18-NYJ 12 (3:07) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 29-L.Washington to NYJ 19 for 7 yards (37-R.Harrison).
4-11-NYJ 19 (2:21) 7-B.Graham punts 29 yards to NYJ 48, Center-85-J.Dearth, out of bounds.

3Q

3-22-NYJ 11 (11:30) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep left to 83-C.Stuckey to NYJ 39 for 28 yards (31-B.Meriweather).

4Q

3-23-NYJ 7 (5:18) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep left to 87-L.Coles (27-E.Hobbs).
4-23-NYJ 7 (3:57) 7-B.Graham punts 55 yards to NE 38, Center-85-J.Dearth. 33-K.Faulk to NYJ 47 for 15 yards (16-B.Smith, 15-W.Wright).

Week 3

N/A

Week 4

Bye

Week 5

4Q

3-11-SF 44 (1:34) 14-J.O'Sullivan pass incomplete deep left to 83-A.Battle.
4-11-SF 44 (1:30) 14-J.O'Sullivan pass incomplete short right to 88-I.Bruce.

Week 6

2Q

3-11-SD 48 (4:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 83-V.Jackson (31-B.Meriweather). NE-31-B.Meriweather was injured during the play.
4-11-SD 48 (4:48) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-50-D.Binn, downed by SD-81-K.Osgood.

3Q

3-10-NE 26 (4:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 80-M.Floyd to NE 17 for 9 yards (27-E.Hobbs).
4-1-NE 17 (4:22) 10-N.Kaeding 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

Week 7

2Q

3-10-DEN 10 (10:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler scrambles left end to DEN 17 for 7 yards (36-J.Sanders, 90-L.Smith). Penalty on DEN, Illegal Formation, declined.
4-3-DEN 17 (10:20) 1-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NE 33, Center-83-M.Leach. 83-W.Welker ran ob at NE 44 for 11 yards.

3-10-DEN 20 (6:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 19-E.Royal to DEN 33 for 13 yards (37-R.Harrison). NE-58-P.Woods was injured during the play.

3Q

3-14-DEN 8 (9:40) (Shotgun) 28-M.Pittman left guard to DEN 16 for 8 yards (59-G.Guyton, 37-R.Harrison).
4-6-DEN 16 (9:03) 1-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NE 28, Center-83-M.Leach. 83-W.Welker pushed ob at DEN 28 for 44 yards (83-M.Leach).

4Q

3-10-DEN 28 (7:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 15-B.Marshall ran ob at DEN 40 for 12 yards. PENALTY on DEN-28-M.Pittman, Chop Block, 14 yards, enforced at DEN 28 - No Play.
3-24-DEN 14 (7:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 89-D.Graham pushed ob at DEN 35 for 21 yards (35-M.Richardson). PENALTY on DEN-82-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 31.
3-17-DEN 21 (6:54) 6-J.Cutler sacked at DEN 15 for -6 yards (93-R.Seymour).
4-23-DEN 15 (6:35) 1-B.Kern punts 45 yards to NE 40, Center-83-M.Leach. 83-W.Welker to NE 48 for 8 yards (52-L.Green).

Week 8

2Q

3-10-STL 20 (11:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass deep middle to 14-K.Burton to STL 47 for 27 yards (31-B.Meriweather).

3-25-NE 38 (7:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger sacked at NE 40 for -2 yards (93-R.Seymour).
4-27-NE 40 (7:12) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-45-C.Massey, Touchback.

3Q

3-14-NE 37 (8:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass short left to 81-T.Holt pushed ob at NE 26 for 11 yards (24-J.Wilhite, 36-J.Sanders). STL 81-Holt now has 12,153 career receiving yards, passing Charlie Joiner for 15th all-time.
4-3-NE 26 (8:08) 3-J.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-5-D.Jones.

4Q

3-15-STL 15 (7:45) (Shotgun) PENALTY on STL-70-A.Barron, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at STL 15 - No Play.
3-20-STL 10 (7:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass short left to 82-D.Hall to STL 15 for 5 yards (24-J.Wilhite).
4-15-STL 15 (7:12) 5-D.Jones punts 46 yards to NE 39, Center-45-C.Massey. 83-W.Welker to NE 47 for 8 yards (52-C.Draft, 55-G.Stills).

3-10-STL 37 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass short middle to 82-D.Hall to 50 for 13 yards (96-A.Thomas).

3-10-NE 33 (1:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on STL-68-R.Incognito, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 33 - No Play.
3-15-NE 38 (1:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass deep right intended for 14-K.Burton INTERCEPTED by 21-D.O'Neal at NE 16. 21-D.O'Neal to STL 37 for 47 yards (10-M.Bulger).

Week 9

2Q

3-10-IND 48 19) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison to NE 26 for 26 yards (36-J.Sanders).

Week 10

2Q

3-10-NE 46 (1:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short middle to 81-J.Hardy to NE 39 for 7 yards (23-J.Webster, 58-P.Woods).
Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:04.
4-3-NE 39 (1:04) 8-B.Moorman punts 36 yards to NE 3, Center-72-R.Neill, downed by BUF-17-J.Jenkins.

3Q

3-12-BUF 17 (2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short right to 83-L.Evans ran ob at BUF 32 for 15 yards.

4Q

3-11-NE 42 (11:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete deep right to 84-R.Royal (51-J.Mayo).
4-11-NE 42 (11:11) 8-B.Moorman punts 34 yards to NE 8, Center-72-R.Neill, fair catch by 33-K.Faulk.

Week 11

2Q

3-9-NYJ 31 (1:56) PENALTY on NYJ-4-B.Favre, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 31 - No Play.
3-14-NYJ 26 (1:56) 29-L.Washington right guard to NYJ 33 for 7 yards (93-R.Seymour, 59-G.Guyton).
Timeout #2 by NE at 01:51.
4-7-NYJ 33 (1:51) 6-R.Hodges punts 35 yards to NE 32, Center-85-J.Dearth, fair catch by 33-K.Faulk.

3Q

3-14-NYJ 29 (11:45) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre sacked at NYJ 20 for -9 yards (93-R.Seymour).
4-23-NYJ 20 (11:26) 6-R.Hodges punts 46 yards to NE 34, Center-85-J.Dearth. 83-W.Welker to NE 36 for 2 yards (31-A.Carroll, 16-B.Smith).

OT

3-15-NYJ 15 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-D.Keller to NYJ 31 for 16 yards (31-B.Meriweather, 51-J.Mayo).

Week 12

1Q

3-14-MIA 25 (9:17) 10-C.Pennington pass short middle to 34-R.Williams to MIA 31 for 6 yards (50-M.Vrabel).
4-8-MIA 31 (8:45) (Punt formation) 2-B.Fields punts 52 yards to NE 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 83-W.Welker to NE 25 for 8 yards (56-C.Anderson).

2Q

3-12-MIA 41 (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass deep right to 83-G.Camarillo to NE 39 for 20 yards (21-D.O'Neal)

3-10-NE 49 16) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA-19-T.Ginn, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.
Timeout #2 by NE at 00:16.
3-15-MIA 46 16) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington sacked at MIA 39 for -7 yards (50-M.Vrabel).

3Q

3-20-NE 37 (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington sacked at NE 41 for -4 yards (93-R.Seymour). Penalty on MIA-65-J.Smiley, Offensive Holding, declined.
4-24-NE 41 (1:37) (Punt formation) 2-B.Fields punts 28 yards to NE 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 83-W.Welker.

4Q

3-10-MIA 24 (6:02) 10-C.Pennington pass short middle to 23-R.Brown to MIA 34 for 10 yards (59-G.Guyton). 1st Down Measurement.

3-10-MIA 44 (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass incomplete short right to 23-R.Brown.
4-10-MIA 44 (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass incomplete deep right to 15-D.Bess [93-R.Seymour]. Penalty on MIA-34-R.Williams, Chop Block, declined. Penalty on MIA-65-J.Smiley, Chop Block, declined.

Week 13

1Q

3-12-NE 27 (5:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 85-N.Washington to NE 11 for 16 yards (27-E.Hobbs, 31-B.Meriweather).

2Q

3-10-PIT 13 (11:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 10-S.Holmes (27-E.Hobbs).
4-10-PIT 13 (11:52) 17-M.Berger punts 38 yards to NE 49, Center-61-J.Retkofsky. 83-W.Welker to PIT 44 for 7 yards (61-J.Retkofsky, 92-J.Harrison). PENALTY on NE-28-A.Spann, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

I would imagine this would be much more damning if "3rd and long" included situations like 3rd and 6, 3rd and 7, and so forth.

BoTown said:

According to NFL.com, the Patriots defense is the 4th worst in the league on 3rd down, better than only the Colts, Chiefs, and Bengals. I have to imagine the Patriots are the worst in 3rd and long situations.

Looking up the games and finding their 3rd and double-digit yards situations, this is what I found. Positive outcome Negative outcome

Week 1

4Q

3-13-KC 17 (10:12) (Shotgun) 11-D.Huard pass short right to 80-J.Webb to KC 23 for 6 yards (29-L.Sanders).
4-7-KC 23 (9:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NE 36, Center-51-J.Darche. 21-D.O'Neal to NE 38 for 2 yards (52-E.Walden, 51-J.Darche).

Week 2

2Q

3-18-NYJ 12 (3:07) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 29-L.Washington to NYJ 19 for 7 yards (37-R.Harrison).
4-11-NYJ 19 (2:21) 7-B.Graham punts 29 yards to NYJ 48, Center-85-J.Dearth, out of bounds.

3Q

3-22-NYJ 11 (11:30) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass deep left to 83-C.Stuckey to NYJ 39 for 28 yards (31-B.Meriweather).

4Q

3-23-NYJ 7 (5:18) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep left to 87-L.Coles (27-E.Hobbs).
4-23-NYJ 7 (3:57) 7-B.Graham punts 55 yards to NE 38, Center-85-J.Dearth. 33-K.Faulk to NYJ 47 for 15 yards (16-B.Smith, 15-W.Wright).

Week 3

N/A

Week 4

Bye

Week 5

4Q

3-11-SF 44 (1:34) 14-J.O'Sullivan pass incomplete deep left to 83-A.Battle.
4-11-SF 44 (1:30) 14-J.O'Sullivan pass incomplete short right to 88-I.Bruce.

Week 6

2Q

3-11-SD 48 (4:55) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 83-V.Jackson (31-B.Meriweather). NE-31-B.Meriweather was injured during the play.
4-11-SD 48 (4:48) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to NE 6, Center-50-D.Binn, downed by SD-81-K.Osgood.

3Q

3-10-NE 26 (4:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 80-M.Floyd to NE 17 for 9 yards (27-E.Hobbs).
4-1-NE 17 (4:22) 10-N.Kaeding 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-D.Binn, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

Week 7

2Q

3-10-DEN 10 (10:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler scrambles left end to DEN 17 for 7 yards (36-J.Sanders, 90-L.Smith). Penalty on DEN, Illegal Formation, declined.
4-3-DEN 17 (10:20) 1-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NE 33, Center-83-M.Leach. 83-W.Welker ran ob at NE 44 for 11 yards.

3-10-DEN 20 (6:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 19-E.Royal to DEN 33 for 13 yards (37-R.Harrison). NE-58-P.Woods was injured during the play.

3Q

3-14-DEN 8 (9:40) (Shotgun) 28-M.Pittman left guard to DEN 16 for 8 yards (59-G.Guyton, 37-R.Harrison).
4-6-DEN 16 (9:03) 1-B.Kern punts 56 yards to NE 28, Center-83-M.Leach. 83-W.Welker pushed ob at DEN 28 for 44 yards (83-M.Leach).

4Q

3-10-DEN 28 (7:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 15-B.Marshall ran ob at DEN 40 for 12 yards. PENALTY on DEN-28-M.Pittman, Chop Block, 14 yards, enforced at DEN 28 - No Play.
3-24-DEN 14 (7:25) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 89-D.Graham pushed ob at DEN 35 for 21 yards (35-M.Richardson). PENALTY on DEN-82-D.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 31.
3-17-DEN 21 (6:54) 6-J.Cutler sacked at DEN 15 for -6 yards (93-R.Seymour).
4-23-DEN 15 (6:35) 1-B.Kern punts 45 yards to NE 40, Center-83-M.Leach. 83-W.Welker to NE 48 for 8 yards (52-L.Green).

Week 8

2Q

3-10-STL 20 (11:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass deep middle to 14-K.Burton to STL 47 for 27 yards (31-B.Meriweather).

3-25-NE 38 (7:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger sacked at NE 40 for -2 yards (93-R.Seymour).
4-27-NE 40 (7:12) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-45-C.Massey, Touchback.

3Q

3-14-NE 37 (8:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass short left to 81-T.Holt pushed ob at NE 26 for 11 yards (24-J.Wilhite, 36-J.Sanders). STL 81-Holt now has 12,153 career receiving yards, passing Charlie Joiner for 15th all-time.
4-3-NE 26 (8:08) 3-J.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Massey, Holder-5-D.Jones.

4Q

3-15-STL 15 (7:45) (Shotgun) PENALTY on STL-70-A.Barron, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at STL 15 - No Play.
3-20-STL 10 (7:45) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass short left to 82-D.Hall to STL 15 for 5 yards (24-J.Wilhite).
4-15-STL 15 (7:12) 5-D.Jones punts 46 yards to NE 39, Center-45-C.Massey. 83-W.Welker to NE 47 for 8 yards (52-C.Draft, 55-G.Stills).

3-10-STL 37 (2:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass short middle to 82-D.Hall to 50 for 13 yards (96-A.Thomas).

3-10-NE 33 (1:26) (Shotgun) PENALTY on STL-68-R.Incognito, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 33 - No Play.
3-15-NE 38 (1:26) (Shotgun) 10-M.Bulger pass deep right intended for 14-K.Burton INTERCEPTED by 21-D.O'Neal at NE 16. 21-D.O'Neal to STL 37 for 47 yards (10-M.Bulger).

Week 9

2Q

3-10-IND 48 19) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-M.Harrison to NE 26 for 26 yards (36-J.Sanders).

Week 10

2Q

3-10-NE 46 (1:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short middle to 81-J.Hardy to NE 39 for 7 yards (23-J.Webster, 58-P.Woods).
Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:04.
4-3-NE 39 (1:04) 8-B.Moorman punts 36 yards to NE 3, Center-72-R.Neill, downed by BUF-17-J.Jenkins.

3Q

3-12-BUF 17 (2:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass short right to 83-L.Evans ran ob at BUF 32 for 15 yards.

4Q

3-11-NE 42 (11:18) (Shotgun) 5-T.Edwards pass incomplete deep right to 84-R.Royal (51-J.Mayo).
4-11-NE 42 (11:11) 8-B.Moorman punts 34 yards to NE 8, Center-72-R.Neill, fair catch by 33-K.Faulk.

Week 11

2Q

3-9-NYJ 31 (1:56) PENALTY on NYJ-4-B.Favre, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 31 - No Play.
3-14-NYJ 26 (1:56) 29-L.Washington right guard to NYJ 33 for 7 yards (93-R.Seymour, 59-G.Guyton).
Timeout #2 by NE at 01:51.
4-7-NYJ 33 (1:51) 6-R.Hodges punts 35 yards to NE 32, Center-85-J.Dearth, fair catch by 33-K.Faulk.

3Q

3-14-NYJ 29 (11:45) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre sacked at NYJ 20 for -9 yards (93-R.Seymour).
4-23-NYJ 20 (11:26) 6-R.Hodges punts 46 yards to NE 34, Center-85-J.Dearth. 83-W.Welker to NE 36 for 2 yards (31-A.Carroll, 16-B.Smith).

OT

3-15-NYJ 15 (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 81-D.Keller to NYJ 31 for 16 yards (31-B.Meriweather, 51-J.Mayo).

Week 12

1Q

3-14-MIA 25 (9:17) 10-C.Pennington pass short middle to 34-R.Williams to MIA 31 for 6 yards (50-M.Vrabel).
4-8-MIA 31 (8:45) (Punt formation) 2-B.Fields punts 52 yards to NE 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 83-W.Welker to NE 25 for 8 yards (56-C.Anderson).

2Q

3-12-MIA 41 (9:36) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass deep right to 83-G.Camarillo to NE 39 for 20 yards (21-D.O'Neal)

3-10-NE 49 16) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA-19-T.Ginn, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 49 - No Play.
Timeout #2 by NE at 00:16.
3-15-MIA 46 16) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington sacked at MIA 39 for -7 yards (50-M.Vrabel).

3Q

3-20-NE 37 (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington sacked at NE 41 for -4 yards (93-R.Seymour). Penalty on MIA-65-J.Smiley, Offensive Holding, declined.
4-24-NE 41 (1:37) (Punt formation) 2-B.Fields punts 28 yards to NE 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 83-W.Welker.

4Q

3-10-MIA 24 (6:02) 10-C.Pennington pass short middle to 23-R.Brown to MIA 34 for 10 yards (59-G.Guyton). 1st Down Measurement.

3-10-MIA 44 (4:15) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass incomplete short right to 23-R.Brown.
4-10-MIA 44 (4:10) (Shotgun) 10-C.Pennington pass incomplete deep right to 15-D.Bess [93-R.Seymour]. Penalty on MIA-34-R.Williams, Chop Block, declined. Penalty on MIA-65-J.Smiley, Chop Block, declined.

Week 13

1Q

3-12-NE 27 (5:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 85-N.Washington to NE 11 for 16 yards (27-E.Hobbs, 31-B.Meriweather).

2Q

3-10-PIT 13 (11:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 10-S.Holmes (27-E.Hobbs).
4-10-PIT 13 (11:52) 17-M.Berger punts 38 yards to NE 49, Center-61-J.Retkofsky. 83-W.Welker to PIT 44 for 7 yards (61-J.Retkofsky, 92-J.Harrison). PENALTY on NE-28-A.Spann, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

I would imagine this would be much more damning if "3rd and long" included situations like 3rd and 6, 3rd and 7, and so forth.

Click to expand...

Very nice analysis.

Wish there were less negatives....


Also liked how you used red and green. Way to get into the Christmas spirit!

CheerforTom said:

You're not suggesting we should have picked up Joey over Cassel...

Typeos aside I don't really disagree with you, I'm just not all that comfortable leaving it at "injuries are making this happen". We won the Super Bowl with Ty Law on the sidelines and Troy Brown playing CB, along with guys like Poole and Gay who were subsequently cut a couple seasons later. Doesn't lineup construction include the depth to deal properly with injuries? Either way the coaches are suspect here.

Click to expand...

The problem is that the depth has gone down as well as the starters. Both Harrison and Tank went down, for example. However, depth is generally a pipe dream in today's NFL.

As for the coaches, I would put it this way: I think they blew it with the cornerback position by allowing both Gay AND Samuel leave without having at least one more cornerback in the fold, but it might have worked out alright if Wheatley hadn't gotten injured.

KontradictioN said:

I totally agree with you. However, in 2001, BB did not have the correct personell he wanted in order to run HIS defense. What did he do? Adapted to the conditions and rotated with a 4-3 defense designed to bring pressure. This year, the defense hasn't adapted to those losses like it has in the past. I think that's more or less the question that's on most peoples minds. People that watch this team KNOW what's going on with the defense. As you said, they aren't asking the right questions. Right now, the question I have is: why are we having such trouble adapting to these injuries on the move?

Click to expand...

Location! Location! Location!

The biggest turnover, in regards to the passing game, has been right down the middle. Both ILB spots are rookies and the safeties haven't worked together (and Meriweather is still developing). Furthermore, while DW Toys does go overboard with his assault on Sanders, it is true that Sanders is a major step down from what Harrison was just 2 seasons ago.

If the middle was more trustworthy, the team could roll the coverage over to O'Neal's side the way they used to roll it over to Samuel's side. People talk about pass rush, but it's tough to send your experienced OLBs when your inexperienced ILBs have shown that they can't get the job done yet.

I expect that Mayo will be vastly improved in coverage come next season, and that Guyton's speed will be better harnessed next year after he's gotten his rookie season under his belt. I expect Meriweather to look like a real veteran next season. I just don't know what the team is going to do at the Sanders' position.

I'd expect an ILB/TE/OL to be taken in round 1, a CB to be taken in round 2 along with one of the ILB/TE/OL group that wasn't chosen in round 1, and the third of the ILB/TE/OL group to be taken in round 3, unless they fill some of these spots in free agency. All bets on that expectation are off if the team lets Sanders walk, though.

Deus Irae said:

Location! Location! Location!

The biggest turnover, in regards to the passing game, has been right down the middle. Both ILB spots are rookies and the safeties haven't worked together (and Meriweather is still developing). Furthermore, while DW Toys does go overboard with his assault on Sanders, it is true that Sanders is a major step down from what Harrison was just 2 seasons ago.

If the middle was more trustworthy, the team could roll the coverage over to O'Neal's side the way they used to roll it over to Samuel's side. People talk about pass rush, but it's tough to send your experienced OLBs when your inexperienced ILBs have shown that they can't get the job done yet.

I expect that Mayo will be vastly improved in coverage come next season, and that Guyton's speed will be better harnessed next year after he's gotten his rookie season under his belt. I expect Meriweather to look like a real veteran next season. I just don't know what the team is going to do at the Sanders' position.

I'd expect an ILB/TE/OL to be taken in round 1, a CB to be taken in round 2 along with one of the ILB/TE/OL group that wasn't chosen in round 1, and the third of the ILB/TE/OL group to be taken in round 3, unless they fill some of these spots in free agency. All bets on that expectation are off if the team lets Sanders walk, though.

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I'll trust your analysis, bro. Your's usually turns out to be correct. In this situation, however, I hope the changes you speak of (besides the draft) take place during the postseason this year, should we get in, and not next season. But hey, if we have to wait until next season, at least #12 will be back full force.

BB doesnt mind giving up FG's, his bend but dont break defensive philosophy means you cramp down in the redzone and keep them from scoring a TD. So we play a ton of zone coverage which gets absolutely shredded all the time, we keep the safties deep to keep everything infront of us and let nothing get behind us. We have drafted corners that play this style of defense.

It stinks, the best way to play D is man up, play man to man press physical defense and get to the QB in a split second and sack him. Chicago Bears play defense the right way, they play a 4-3 with physical corners that can play man and destroy the QB. Us in our 3-4 sit back and play little tricky zone crap.

So we don't get beat deep, and probably a lack of pressure from our front 7.

Lifer said:

Simple. The Patriots defense is just not that good anymore. The cracks that were revealed in Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game they blew and started to show more and more last year and were revealed again at the end of the Super Bowl have completely blown open this year. I havent felt confident in this defense since that January day in 2007 in Indy and this is not about Belichick, its about talent.
The San Diego game, and the home losses to Miami, the Jets, and Pittsburgh would not have been ANY different had Brady or Cassel or Joe Montana had been the QB.

the defense isnt that good anymore. Time has marched on.

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Just wait, someones are going to blast you with a bunch of BS stats and tell you that what you are now seeing and have been for quite some time (& preceding many of these injuries) - with your own lying eyes - is, in fact, an above average defense. It goes something like this, "it's not the defense that had 5 turnovers, blah, blah, blah..."

CheerforTom said:

The symbolic thing about this season is that it will be decided by the defense's inability to stop 3rd and 15 in overtime against the Jets who will likely go on to win the division by a single game.

The bend but don't break has been getting more and more ineffective over the last couple years. They need aggression and swagger like they used to have.

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amen brother

The front line is good at stopping/taking away the run but has done very little in terms of getting to the QB this year. When they got to Roth yesterday they whiffed. Any half decent QB in this league will pick apart a defense if they have time to sit there and go through all the reads no matter how good your supposed 'shut down' corners are. When you have below average corners it compounds this problem even more.

SoCal Pmen said:

The front line is good at stopping/taking away the run but has done very little in terms of getting to the QB this year. When they got to Roth yesterday they whiffed. Any half decent QB in this league will pick apart a defense if they have time to sit there and go through all the reads no matter how good your supposed 'shut down' corners are. When you have below average corners it compounds this problem even more.

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Ala Philip Rivers, A.J. Feeley, and Kyle Boller.

Well the current scheme seems to consistently yield 10+ play drives lasting 7+ minutes. It's frustrating to watch good defensive plays on 1st and 2nd down only to know the other team will convert on 3rd and 8-12 yards. O'Neil always seems 8+ yards off the ball and is backing up furiously at the snap. The receiver just runs straight at him and at about 2 yards past the first down yardage turns around and viola! A first down. Then there was the play in the second half when the Steelers had a 3rd and 2 and came out with an empty backfield Hines Ward was about 4 yards outside the left tackle and there was another wide receiver split out farther. There was one patriot defender, a linebacker I think, near Ward and at the snap the linebacker blitzed without even chucking Ward. Ward was completely uncovered. He just runs 3 yards and turns around and catches the ball for a first down. What kind of scheme leaves Ward wide open on 3rd and 2? Unless someone blew their assignment, that's just a bad scheme. The nearest defender was a safety who was 10 yards away. It seems like no matter where they are on the field they are defending the goal line instead of the first down marker. Inside the 20, they are defending the middle of the endzone instead of the goal ling.

Sivy said:

I've noticed over the years, both watching and playing football that zone coverage is garbage.

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Pitts zone blitzing scheme seems to be working great for them.

Umm they can rush the passer and we cant did you see the game?

BRiZ said:

It stinks, the best way to play D is man up, play man to man press physical defense and get to the QB in a split second and sack him. Chicago Bears play defense the right way, they play a 4-3 with physical corners that can play man and destroy the QB. Us in our 3-4 sit back and play little tricky zone crap.

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The Chicago Bears play the Tampa 2 deep zone almost 100% of the time - they virtually never play man.

Two of the biggest things has been the steady decline of pressure from the front 7 (IE the linebackers) and a very precipitous quality of play from our safeties.

As much as I love Bruschi he needs to have someone rotate in with him and we dont have anyone.....our lack of edge rush from the LB's this season has also been more than evident.....we really miss Colvin and his outside rush...especially since Thomas went down.

The biggest thing is how poor the safety play has been this season. Sanders is just not cutting it back there (blown coverage/late getting over) and that should be priority one coming into the draft getting a top notch SS. The secondary requires excellent safety play since our corners have always been lackluster aside from Law. We played with Gay, Otis, T Brown, et all at corner because we had Milloy or Harrison back there keep the ship sailing right. Sanders are Merriweather together are a far cry from that.