My 8/21 guess at the 53

[pats1]

This is my first guess of the offseason - I think. Assuming Neal doesn't start the year on PUP (if he does, then his roster spot would be replaced by Welbourn):

QB (3): Brady, Gutierrez, O'Connell
RB/FB (5): Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Evans, Jordan
WR (6): Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Washington, Aiken, Slater
TE (2): Watson, Thomas
OT (4): Light, Kaczur, Britt, O'Callaghan
OG/C (6): Koppen, Mankins, Neal, Hochstein, Yates, Flynn
DL (6): Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, L. Smith
OLB (4): Vrabel, A. Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB (5): Bruschi, Mayo, (Seau???), Guyton, Izzo, Alexander
CB (4): Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5): Harrison, J. Sanders, Meriweather, Lynch, Spann
ST (3): Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton

Obviously there are some tough roster decisions to make. Meriweather and Spann's versatility mean that 4 CBs can be kept, although I could see Spann off the roster (he has PS eligibility) in favor of a 3rd TE like Spach (or Seau). That also means Webster (who hasn't practiced or played in the month of August, IIRC) and Lew Sanders are out of jobs. But if Lynch's participation in nickel packages is any indication, there isn't any pressing need to carry 5 real CBs.

Hobson, I think, is gone. I think Seau comes back at some point though, which could push Guyton off the roster. Or someone else.

I tried like all hell to fit Ventrone on the roster as a 53rd guy who can play STs, WR, and DB, but he still has PS eligibility, so I think that's where he's headed. But if that's what actually happens, I think it's likely he gets a 53-style salary for his 3rd PS season, a la Yates in 2006. That's also possible with Spann.

I just don't see a spot on this roster for Chad Jackson. He got lucky by being on the PUP to start last season, but I don't think the Pats are going to carry 7 WRs (Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Stallworth, Washington, Jackson, Troy) like they did at the end of last season. I see both Aiken (assuming he is healthy) and Washington making the team, as well as Slater for his return game potential - but he's definitely on the bubble. Aiken and Washington could see time as 4th WRs, but generally they'll play on STs as most predict the Pats using more of a balanced offensive attack this season. On that note, Stephen Spach is someone who could sneak back onto the roster as a 3rd TE at some point, but initially I don't think he'll stick. I have Flynn on there as a 10th OL for now because of the OL injury situation, but once some semblance of health returns, they could go back to 9 OL.

LaMont Jordan, for now, I think makes it over Eckel. But as I said in that epic signing thread, he will have little to no role with the team as a 4th HB, and could fill the same role from his living room couch.

Six DLs is adequate at least to start the season. If the DL starts to wear down, then I'm sure Santonio will be on speed dial...or Kareem Brown if he's released by the Jets.

There's no way Cassel makes this team.

 

[tombonneau]

I really don't see Chad Jackson getting cut this year. Makes no sense for the team. I think one of Slater/Aiken might bump a ST LB such as Izzo or Alexander to make room.

Also, I think the board's other favorite whipping boy Cassel makes the team and Guiterrez goes to the PS.

Otherwise, I think this is fairly spot on.

 

[pats1]

I really don't see Chad Jackson getting cut this year. Makes no sense for the team. I think one of Slater/Aiken might bump a ST LB such as Izzo or Alexander to make room.

First off, Izzo isn't getting cut - take that to the bank.

I've been as ardent a Jackson supporter as anyone else, but I don't see why cutting him at this point "makes no sense." Washington has extensive experience as a WR with the Bengals, and last season was really his first as a pure STer. In the event of a Moss, Welker, or Gaffney injury, Washington is decent insurance (as is someone on the free agent market). If Jackson isn't cut, then he's going to return to essentially the same role he had at the end of last season - either being inactive or active but playing a minimal role - you're not going to see as much of a spread offense as we did last year, essentially making Stallworth's roster spot expendable. And with the OL injury situation being as it is, the Pats can't afford to drag around an unproductive Jackson every week just because he has potential.

Also, I think the board's other favorite whipping boy Cassel makes the team and Guiterrez goes to the PS.

That's certainly possible, but I think the Pats like Gutierrez too much for them to risk him becoming the next Justin Rogers or Dan Stevenson and being picked up on the Sunday after final cuts Saturday.

 

[bradmahn]

This is my first guess of the offseason - I think. Assuming Neal doesn't start the year on PUP (if he does, then his roster spot would be replaced by Welbourn):

QB (3): Brady, Gutierrez, O'Connell
RB/FB (5): Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Evans, Jordan
WR (6): Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Washington, Aiken, Slater
TE (2): Watson, Thomas
OT (4): Light, Kaczur, Britt, O'Callaghan
OG/C (6): Koppen, Mankins, Neal, Hochstein, Yates, Flynn
DL (6): Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, L. Smith
OLB (4): Vrabel, A. Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB (5): Bruschi, Mayo, Guyton, Izzo, Alexander
CB (4): Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5): Harrison, J. Sanders, Meriweather, Lynch, Spann
ST (3): Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton


There's no way Cassel makes this team.

I haven't seen enough from Gutz to justify releasing Cassel in favor of the other Matt, so that's one difference.

I also hesitate to have Washington or Aiken as the fourth receiver, especially provided Aiken's injury and Washington's having missed time this camp and the lack of time either has spent with the offense. I think they make the team, but as emergency, emergency WRs (at first, at least) and aces on special teams. It may just be depth, but I also see Aiken and Guyton both working at punt protector (about the only tangible plus to Larry Izzo's game at this point in his career) as the death knoll for our special teams captain. The play of others on 'teams and the addition of Aiken, in my opinion, allow for Jackson to take his spot on the roster.

Though my opinion means very little, I'm operating under the assumption that Neal starts the season on PUP and agree entirely that Welbourne would take that spot.

Besides those few differences, I see the rest of the roster shaking out the same way as your prediction here. Good job.

 

[bradmahn]

I really don't see Chad Jackson getting cut this year. Makes no sense for the team. I think one of Slater/Aiken might bump a ST LB such as Izzo or Alexander to make room.

Also, I think the board's other favorite whipping boy Cassel makes the team and Guiterrez goes to the PS.

Otherwise, I think this is fairly spot on.

Goddamnit, I need to type faster or stop putzing around the internet with a reply open.

Nine minutes late to say the exact same thing.

Here's to great minds thinking alike. :eat3:

 

[Rob0729]

A couple of things:

1.) I think the Pats give Jackson the year to prove himself.
2.) Slater is all but assured to be PS bound. I know he is a fan favorite right now, but he hasn't actually done anything in the first two games to justify a roster spot. Bam Childress did more in the 2006 preseason with a far inferior receiving corp than we have now and didn't make the 53 man roster.
3.) Aiken is a toss up right now. If they have enough special team specialists on the roster, he is gone. The guy sucks as a receiver and is a pure special teamer.
4.) I still don't see Guttierez as a #2 QB. Nor Cassel. I still expect them to get someone from outside.
5.) I still think Hobson can make the team if he improves on Friday. If he doesn't show progress, he is probably cut.
6.) I'm not sure Flynn makes the roster. He seems like a temporary body to be eventhough he has starting experience. But who knows. Too soon to tell.

 

[DW Toys]

This is my first guess of the offseason - I think. Assuming Neal doesn't start the year on PUP (if he does, then his roster spot would be replaced by Welbourn):

QB (3): Brady, Gutierrez, O'Connell
RB/FB (5): Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Evans, Jordan
WR (6): Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Washington, Aiken, Slater
TE (2): Watson, Thomas
OT (4): Light, Kaczur, Britt, O'Callaghan
OG/C (6): Koppen, Mankins, Neal, Hochstein, Yates, Flynn
DL (6): Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, L. Smith
OLB (4): Vrabel, A. Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB (5): Bruschi, Mayo, (Seau???), Guyton, Izzo, Alexander
CB (4): Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5): Harrison, J. Sanders, Meriweather, Lynch, Spann
ST (3): Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton

Obviously there are some tough roster decisions to make. Meriweather and Spann's versatility mean that 4 CBs can be kept, although I could see Spann off the roster (he has PS eligibility) in favor of a 3rd TE like Spach (or Seau). That also means Webster (who hasn't practiced or played in the month of August, IIRC) and Lew Sanders are out of jobs. But if Lynch's participation in nickel packages is any indication, there isn't any pressing need to carry 5 real CBs.

Hobson, I think, is gone. I think Seau comes back at some point though, which could push Guyton off the roster. Or someone else.

I tried like all hell to fit Ventrone on the roster as a 53rd guy who can play STs, WR, and DB, but he still has PS eligibility, so I think that's where he's headed. But if that's what actually happens, I think it's likely he gets a 53-style salary for his 3rd PS season, a la Yates in 2006. That's also possible with Spann.

I just don't see a spot on this roster for Chad Jackson. He got lucky by being on the PUP to start last season, but I don't think the Pats are going to carry 7 WRs (Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Stallworth, Washington, Jackson, Troy) like they did at the end of last season. I see both Aiken (assuming he is healthy) and Washington making the team, as well as Slater for his return game potential - but he's definitely on the bubble. Aiken and Washington could see time as 4th WRs, but generally they'll play on STs as most predict the Pats using more of a balanced offensive attack this season. On that note, Stephen Spach is someone who could sneak back onto the roster as a 3rd TE at some point, but initially I don't think he'll stick. I have Flynn on there as a 10th OL for now because of the OL injury situation, but once some semblance of health returns, they could go back to 9 OL.

LaMont Jordan, for now, I think makes it over Eckel. But as I said in that epic signing thread, he will have little to no role with the team as a 4th HB, and could fill the same role from his living room couch.

Six DLs is adequate at least to start the season. If the DL starts to wear down, then I'm sure Santonio will be on speed dial...or Kareem Brown if he's released by the Jets.

There's no way Cassel makes this team.

Cousin,
I agree on the most part. Welbourn makes it. Neal goes to IR. Alexander is gone and why Izzo? I thnk Redd makes it. Eckel goes to PS. Perhaps so does Cassel. Yates is not an upgrade over Welboun and Webourn can play OT as well. CJ? I give him another year. I think Aiken and Webster and Richardson go IR. Ventrone makes it. Wilhite is IR , and a surprise, Shoate makes it.
DW Toys

 

[pats1]

A couple of things:

1.) I think the Pats give Jackson the year to prove himself.

How is he going to prove himself? They're not going to keep running him out there like he's Clay Buchholz. It's a 16-game season, and Gaffney gives them the best chance to win.

2.) Slater is all but assured to be PS bound. I know he is a fan favorite right now, but he hasn't actually done anything in the first two games to justify a roster spot. Bam Childress did more in the 2006 preseason with a far inferior receiving corp than we have now and didn't make the 53 man roster.

With 31 teams out there looking for the next Devin Hester, I could see one of them taking a flyer on Slater looking to strike gold.

3.) Aiken is a toss up right now. If they have enough special team specialists on the roster, he is gone. The guy sucks as a receiver and is a pure special teamer.

If he's healthy, then I think he's a core member of the ST unit.

4.) I still don't see Guttierez as a #2 QB. Nor Cassel. I still expect them to get someone from outside.

I totally agree, but I'm not being paid to predict who they could bring in.

5.) I still think Hobson can make the team if he improves on Friday. If he doesn't show progress, he is probably cut.

He's buried on the depth chart and it will take a minor miracle for him to win over the coaching staff, IMO.

6.) I'm not sure Flynn makes the roster. He seems like a temporary body to be eventhough he has starting experience. But who knows. Too soon to tell.

Definitely - it's all predicated on the health of Light, Neal, Hochstein, and Yates. The Pats, I'm sure, want to avoid carrying 10 OL at all costs, as generally 300 pounders don't make ideal special teamers. But they could use the depth as Light & co. return early in the season.

 

[pats1]

Cousin,
I agree on the most part. Welbourn makes it. Neal goes to IR. Alexander is gone and why Izzo? I thnk Redd makes it. Eckel goes to PS. Perhaps so does Cassel. Yates is not an upgrade over Welboun and Webourn can play OT as well. CJ? I give him another year. I think Aiken and Webster and Richardson go IR. Ventrone makes it. Wilhite is IR , and a surprise, Shoate makes it.
DW Toys

No point in having Neal go to IR yet considering he's still Reserve/PUP eligible.

Why Izzo? I don't know, maybe we should cut Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton, and all the other special teamers and have all starters play on STs like it's the 1930s.

Yates is an upgrade over Welbourn at this point in time, or else Welbourn would have been around for a lot longer than he has.

That's a ton of players going to IR, though. As much as the "stashing" theory has gained popularity, I don't see the Pats recklessly IRing players in favor of the Jeff Shoates of the world just because such players have been injured at one point or another in the preseason. Why IR players when you can cut them and have the possibility of getting them back later on in the season?

Redd hasn't shown anything and has barely been a presence on special teams.

Eckel isn't practice squad eligible.

 

[Pats726]

This is my first guess of the offseason - I think. Assuming Neal doesn't start the year on PUP (if he does, then his roster spot would be replaced by Welbourn):

QB (3): Brady, Gutierrez, O'Connell
RB/FB (5): Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Evans, Jordan
WR (6): Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Washington, Aiken, Slater
TE (2): Watson, Thomas
OT (4): Light, Kaczur, Britt, O'Callaghan
OG/C (6): Koppen, Mankins, Neal, Hochstein, Yates, Flynn
DL (6): Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, L. Smith
OLB (4): Vrabel, A. Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB (5): Bruschi, Mayo, (Seau???), Guyton, Izzo, Alexander
CB (4): Hobbs, Bryant, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (5): Harrison, J. Sanders, Meriweather, Lynch, Spann
ST (3): Gostkowski, Hanson, Paxton

Obviously there are some tough roster decisions to make. Meriweather and Spann's versatility mean that 4 CBs can be kept, although I could see Spann off the roster (he has PS eligibility) in favor of a 3rd TE like Spach (or Seau). That also means Webster (who hasn't practiced or played in the month of August, IIRC) and Lew Sanders are out of jobs. But if Lynch's participation in nickel packages is any indication, there isn't any pressing need to carry 5 real CBs.

Hobson, I think, is gone. I think Seau comes back at some point though, which could push Guyton off the roster. Or someone else.

I tried like all hell to fit Ventrone on the roster as a 53rd guy who can play STs, WR, and DB, but he still has PS eligibility, so I think that's where he's headed. But if that's what actually happens, I think it's likely he gets a 53-style salary for his 3rd PS season, a la Yates in 2006. That's also possible with Spann.

I just don't see a spot on this roster for Chad Jackson. He got lucky by being on the PUP to start last season, but I don't think the Pats are going to carry 7 WRs (Moss, Welker, Gaffney, Stallworth, Washington, Jackson, Troy) like they did at the end of last season. I see both Aiken (assuming he is healthy) and Washington making the team, as well as Slater for his return game potential - but he's definitely on the bubble. Aiken and Washington could see time as 4th WRs, but generally they'll play on STs as most predict the Pats using more of a balanced offensive attack this season. On that note, Stephen Spach is someone who could sneak back onto the roster as a 3rd TE at some point, but initially I don't think he'll stick. I have Flynn on there as a 10th OL for now because of the OL injury situation, but once some semblance of health returns, they could go back to 9 OL.

LaMont Jordan, for now, I think makes it over Eckel. But as I said in that epic signing thread, he will have little to no role with the team as a 4th HB, and could fill the same role from his living room couch.

Six DLs is adequate at least to start the season. If the DL starts to wear down, then I'm sure Santonio will be on speed dial...or Kareem Brown if he's released by the Jets.

There's no way Cassel makes this team.

A tough call....and really closer to what I might do..but I think a LOT depends on injuries..and that is why I think Neal is PUPed..because even if he is healthy, I think it'll take a few weeks to get ready. They need 7 healthy linemen a game..so really a lot depends on if Light, O'Callaghan, Yates and Hochstein are all ready to go on opening day. Yjay is why I think they may keep 10 without Neal or Ross. I also have debated the 2 TE and 6 DL possibilities and I think both could happen. I also believe they will go with 5 RBs. Jackson? He really has to show something to justify a spot; I like the fact of the 3 STers being WRs as well. I agree Izzo is a lock..I think many miss the importance of a really experienced ST player..and I think Aiken takes the torch from him next year. I agree with 9 DBs..maybe LSanders for Spann? There are some small things..but I think this might be the way it happens. Very good...it is a tough call on some.

 

[tombonneau]

A couple of things:

1.) I think the Pats give Jackson the year to prove himself.
2.) Slater is all but assured to be PS bound. I know he is a fan favorite right now, but he hasn't actually done anything in the first two games to justify a roster spot. Bam Childress did more in the 2006 preseason with a far inferior receiving corp than we have now and didn't make the 53 man roster.
3.) Aiken is a toss up right now. If they have enough special team specialists on the roster, he is gone. The guy sucks as a receiver and is a pure special teamer.
4.) I still don't see Guttierez as a #2 QB. Nor Cassel. I still expect them to get someone from outside.
5.) I still think Hobson can make the team if he improves on Friday. If he doesn't show progress, he is probably cut.
6.) I'm not sure Flynn makes the roster. He seems like a temporary body to be eventhough he has starting experience. But who knows. Too soon to tell.

Agree on #2 that Slater might not have done enough in games to merit a spot. He might have ooh'd and ahh'd at camp, but he very well could be a goner.

To respond to Pats1 re: Jackson, it doesn't make sense to the team in that they traded up for a guy, he was dinged his rookie year but showed potential, was injured his second year, and I can't see totally giving up on your investment in Year 3 unless the guy is coming with baggage which I don't think Cjax is.

As far as his playing time will be limited, there are always injuries, and Gaffney cut into Stallworths touches in 07, no reason to think of CJax starts to click he couldn't do the same.

As far as Cass vs. Gutz, I really don't care enough about either to debate the point. Kind of like arguing over who is the hottest fat chick at the mall.

 

[pats1]

A tough call....and really closer to what I might do..but I think a LOT depends on injuries..and that is why I think Neal is PUPed..because even if he is healthy, I think it'll take a few weeks to get ready. They need 7 healthy linemen a game..so really a lot depends on if Light, O'Callaghan, Yates and Hochstein are all ready to go on opening day. Yjay is why I think they may keep 10 without Neal or Ross. I also have debated the 2 TE and 6 DL possibilities and I think both could happen. I also believe they will go with 5 RBs. Jackson? He really has to show something to justify a spot; I like the fact of the 3 STers being WRs as well. I agree Izzo is a lock..I think many miss the importance of a really experienced ST player..and I think Aiken takes the torch from him next year. I agree with 9 DBs..maybe LSanders for Spann? There are some small things..but I think this might be the way it happens. Very good...it is a tough call on some.

I think the OL is still a very fluid situation (see today's Flynn signing), and as we get closer to August 30, we'll get a better idea of how things will shape up injury-wise. But as we saw with Bob Hallen and Rabih Abdullah in 2004 (or Reche Caldwell, Marcellus Rivers, Chris Hanson, and David Herron in 2007), the roster is far from set on final cuts Saturday.

 

[pats1]

To respond to Pats1 re: Jackson, it doesn't make sense to the team in that they traded up for a guy, he was dinged his rookie year but showed potential, was injured his second year, and I can't see totally giving up on your investment in Year 3 unless the guy is coming with baggage which I don't think Cjax is.

As far as his playing time will be limited, there are always injuries, and Gaffney cut into Stallworths touches in 07, no reason to think of CJax starts to click he couldn't do the same.

I agree that it's too early to give up on Jackson. But these are the Patriots, and while Jackson could probably have a great shot at a starting spot on most teams, he's buried on the Pats. They handed him the #3 job behind Moss and Welker in May, and on August 21, that spot is again occupied by Gaffney. I can certainly envision the powers that be deciding very simply that the time has come.

 

[Crowpointer]

Obviously there are some tough roster decisions to make. Meriweather and Spann's versatility mean that 4 CBs can be kept, although I could see Spann off the roster (he has PS eligibility) in favor of a 3rd TE like Spach [/B )

I agree with all the other names but I would change to this as the more likely roster selections.

 

[bradmahn]

I agree that it's too early to give up on Jackson. But these are the Patriots, and while Jackson could probably have a great shot at a starting spot on most teams, he's buried on the Pats. They handed him the #3 job behind Moss and Welker in May, and on August 21, that spot is again occupied by Gaffney. I can certainly envision the powers that be deciding very simply that the time has come.

As of right now, it certainly looks like he's the fourth receiver on a team that plays a lot of three WR sets. I don't see that as too much to overcome.

Besides being on the other side, what have Washington or Aiken done to show that the grass would be greener with them? I agree with tombonneau that it seems way too early to give up on him, New England Patriots or otherwise.

 

[Pats726]

I think the OL is still a very fluid situation (see today's Flynn signing), and as we get closer to August 30, we'll get a better idea of how things will shape up injury-wise. But as we saw with Bob Hallen and Rabih Abdullah in 2004 (or Reche Caldwell, Marcellus Rivers, Chris Hanson, and David Herron in 2007), the roster is far from set on final cuts Saturday.

Very true...there are tweakings to the roster not only after cut down and before the first game..but also into the season's first few games.

 

[pats1]

As of right now, it certainly looks like he's the fourth receiver on a team that plays a lot of three WR sets. I don't see that as too much to overcome.

Besides being on the other side, what have Washington or Aiken done to show that the grass would be greener with them? I agree with tombonneau that it seems way too early to give up on him, New England Patriots or otherwise.

Apples v. Oranges. Aiken and Washington and special teams presences.

 

[Pats726]

That's a ton of players going to IR, though. As much as the "stashing" theory has gained popularity, I don't see the Pats recklessly IRing players in favor of the Jeff Shoates of the world just because such players have been injured at one point or another in the preseason. Why IR players when you can cut them and have the possibility of getting them back later on in the season?

I am not sure what the rules are of cutting players who are injured...for some reason I do not think one can do that preseason. I KNOW after the first game when salaries in place, teams can cut an injured player and bring them back later when healed..the Pats did that a lot in the past. But cutting players who are injured before the cut down to 53? For some reason I thought that was a no no..that they would have to be IRed and the only way they could be activated was with an injury settlement. Rules..riues rules..it's what to do with so many injured players now?? SOmeone must know the rules for that.. I remember DL Dana Stubblefield...OL Bill Conaty and rook WR Dan Stricker all on IR and cut via injury settlements.

 

[pats1]

I am not sure what the rules are of cutting players who are injured...for some reason I do not think one can do that preseason. I KNOW after the first game when salaries in place, teams can cut an injured player and bring them back later when healed..the Pats did that a lot in the past. But cutting players who are injured before the cut down to 53? For some reason I thought that was a no no..that they would have to be IRed and the only way they could be activated was with an injury settlement. Rules..riues rules..it's what to do with so many injured players now?? SOmeone must know the rules for that.. I remember DL Dana Stubblefield...OL Bill Conaty and rook WR Dan Stricker all on IR and cut via injury settlements.

C'mon now. You dropping that Dan Stricker means I'm gonna have to drop a Scott McCready or Mark Bartosic.

(Or worse yet: Ryan Tujague.)

 

[jeffbiologist]

The bottom of the roster is far from set. It wouldnt surprise me to see them cut to 51 to put some guys on the PS and pick a couple guys cast off other teams.....particularly if any OL are around. It may be a good time to try and trade for one too.The Browns got a CB from Miami yesterday......