Kevin O'Connell Why?

[captain stone]

When we get a draft pick for Cassell nobody will complain that we took O'Connell.

That'll work for me; I love acquiring draft picks.

I just don't think that we'll get a 3rd, or even a 4th, for Cassell.

 

[captain stone]

I don't include Stokes or Ross as players, just camp bodies. I am concerned that there is now a noticable drop off when Hochstien comes in for the oft injured Neal, and career to date, Yates has not proven he can play a full season.

I would love to see O'Callaghan or Britt win the ROT spot and move Kazcur to ROG in Neal can not come back from injury.

I agree, on all counts.

 

[captain stone]

Good point, who starts at ROG if Neal goes PUP? Hochstein?" Yates? Neither makes me feel very comfortable.
If I am KC, I stunt Dorsey to Yates' side on every passing play.

If I am any team's DC, I attack the right side of our OL on every passing play.

 

[captain stone]

BTW, I should say that the name I was shouting at the screen at #94 was Red Bryant. I think the lack of an NT draftee was at least as surprising as the the lack of OL.

Bryant would have been a good value pick for us at #94: one of the better players available & at a position of need.

I personally was rooting for UConn DB Tyvon Branch. I'm tired of seeing the FO acquire injury-prone midgets at CB.

OLmen Cousins & McGlynn, and DE/DT Dre Moore also would've been better value picks than O'Connell.

I too am concerned about the lack of a quality backup NT. LeKevin Smith appears to be taking more snaps at DE than at NT so far, and Steven Fifita isn't the answer. My solution would have been to sign UFA Grady Jackson, who was available as late as last week before Tom Dimitroff in Atlanta signed him, and/or draft Ahtyba Rubin with our 5th-rounder.

 

[Metaphors]

BTW, I should say that the name I was shouting at the screen at #94 was Red Bryant. I think the lack of an NT draftee was at least as surprising as the the lack of OL.

I think the lack of a NT draftee is the result of the Steve Martin (2002) experience. Not saying Steve Martin is a NT (or a good player for that matter), just saying that screwing up the middle of the DL for this defense can destroy the whole scheme. Instead of "doing your job", people start compensating and the house of cards collapses.

If Wilfork goes down for any amount of time (that sound you hear is me knocking on all available wood for his health), I think you will see the scheme compensate rather than a player step in to replace him. More 4-3. Slide Seymour inside and play AD more on the LOS. Stuff like that.

If a technically sound vet NT is available as a FA or if a stud NT slips within range of the Pats in the draft, I think they would pounce. It just doesn't seem like a position that can be developed with a great success rate. In other words, the Pats need the "best", not the "best available", at NT.

On a side note, I really hope people understand just how valuable Wilfork really is and how important it is that he is re-signed. Seeing the Casey Hampton situation in Pittsburgh (Google "Casey Hampton Fat" for related information) just drives that point home even further. I think the Steelers are one cheeseburger away from missing the playoffs.

 

[Metaphors]

This is driving me insane, I know BB & SP are not fools but why a QB in round 3? why? This has caused me to lose sleep.

Instead of "why a QB in round 3"...how about "why THAT QB in round 3".

In the last 16 years (AKA, the free agency era), the Super Bowl winner has had at QB either:

• A high 1st round draft pick (Aikman, Young, Elway, Dilfer, Meathead, Goober and Goober Jr.)
• A low round/undrafted player (Warner, Brady, B.Johnson)
• Brett Favre

Since the Pats hope to never be in position to draft that high in the 1st round (or pay that money for a QB to develop), you have to think the Pats would have to strike gold again in finding their post-Brady QB. So Kingsbury, Cassel and Gutierrez shouldn't be a surprise.

In addition to showing how beneficial financially it can be to build a team around a QB picked outside the top half of the 1st round, Brady also provided a prototype for what the Pats should be looking for. Brady, Cassel, Gutierrez and O'Connell could probably share clothes. That isn't by accident.

But Cassel and Gutierrez were late round flyers. Why pick O'Connell? He fits the prototype and is a superior athlete, but is technically raw. If the Pats can coach him up and get his footwork and release correct and consistent, he will be a starting caliber QB in the NFL. If the Pats have guessed right and he has the intangibles necessary to process information quickly and make good decisions, he will be a Pro Bowl caliber QB in the NFL. Those are pretty big "if's" and that is why he didn't go on the 1st day of the draft.

Why the 3rd round when he was projected to go in the 5th? Simple. That is the spot the Pats knew they had to take O'Connell to minimize the risk someone else would trump them. That says the Pats feel good about their ability to coach him up and O'Connell's ability to take good coaching and apply it on the field.

If they are wrong, they blew a 3rd round pick. Is that a disaster? Two words...Brock Williams. Two more...Guss Scott. Both of those players were drafted in years the Pats won the Super Bowl.

If they are right about O'Connell, they will have a gem at the most important position in football. His rookie contract will be up right around the time Brady may be starting to think about his life in politics. Or judging beauty contests around the world. Regardless, O'Connell is an investment that could pay off big in the future.

 

[cstjohn17]

Instead of "why a QB in round 3"...how about "why THAT QB in round 3".

Sounds like the musings of someone bored at work, believe I have been there.

Sorry, I am not buying. I don't expect all their draft picks to stick, in fact I put the percentages to be an NFL starter something like:
round 1 - 80%
round 2 -60%
round 3 - 40%
round 4 - 30%
round 5+ - 10%

I don't see the value in picking a development project, outside of Brady the Patriots have developed exactly 0 QBs. Brady was a 1 in million, not a blueprint.

Why not give Dante some tools to work with? He has had 1 first rounder (Mankins - Probowl), a 2nd rounder (Matt Light - Probowl). I think a 3rd round pick of OL is higher % than a QB, especially when your QB is in his prime. O'Connell is signed for 4 years, what are the odds he throws more than 30 passes as a Patriot? 15:1

 

[Metaphors]

I don't see the value in picking a development project, outside of Brady the Patriots have developed exactly 0 QBs. Brady was a 1 in million, not a blueprint.

You are missing my point. The Pats didn't take O'Connell in the 3rd round because he was the highest QB on their list and they wanted just any QB to develop. The Pats took O'Connell in the 3rd round because they wanted to get O'Connell specifically and they guessed that it would take pick 94 to be sure of getting him. They see something in O'Connell that you don't see.

As far as Brady not being a blueprint, you really think it is just happenstance that all 4 Patriot QBs are almost precisely the same height/weight profile? They aren't looking for another Brady (as you mention that would be a foolish expectation). They have seen the physical attributes and intangibles in Brady that have made him successful. That gives them something to start with during evaluations. It would be equally foolish for them to look for a 6'2" mobile QB with a sidearm throwing motion with a gambling attitude.

Why not give Dante some tools to work with? He has had 1 first rounder (Mankins - Probowl), a 2nd rounder (Matt Light - Probowl). I think a 3rd round pick of OL is higher % than a QB, especially when your QB is in his prime. O'Connell is signed for 4 years, what are the odds he throws more than 30 passes as a Patriot? 15:1

A point that has been mentioned countless time (now countless + 1), the Pats had any number of opportunities to get a lineman. They chose not to. I don't know why and with the current injuries I'm not sure if they already regret the decision. Pick #94 was not their only or even best opportunity for bringing in some OLine help. They just didn't want anyone available at the positions where they selected.

As for the number of passes O'Connell makes in the next 4 years, hopefully he only makes 30 passes in mop-up duty and collects 4 championships along the way. The real point will be in 2011, what will the Pats have in O'Connell. A solid QB that has been Brady's backup for a year or two? That is worth a 3rd. Then the Pats can chose whether to re-sign him long term to try to trade his rights.

Anything more than a reliable backup and the Pats have a steal. If he never rises to 2nd string then he is a bust and you move on. Either way it will be interesting to see his progression.

 

[patchick]

Why not give Dante some tools to work with? He has had 1 first rounder (Mankins - Probowl), a 2nd rounder (Matt Light - Probowl). I think a 3rd round pick of OL is higher % than a QB, especially when your QB is in his prime.

But he has his 3rd-round OT too -- Kaczur. The days when Dante was expected to piece together an OL out of UDFAs, spit and string are long gone.

 

[cstjohn17]

But he has his 3rd-round OT too -- Kaczur. The days when Dante was expected to piece together an OL out of UDFAs, spit and string are long gone.

What about warm bodies walking the streets in August?

Kaczur is an adequate NFL starter, that is more than what is expected from a 3rd rounder.

1:17 AM? You must have kids or something.

 

[cstjohn17]

You are missing my point. The Pats didn't take O'Connell in the 3rd round because he was the highest QB on their list and they wanted just any QB to develop. The Pats took O'Connell in the 3rd round because they wanted to get O'Connell specifically and they guessed that it would take pick 94 to be sure of getting him. They see something in O'Connell that you don't see.

As far as Brady not being a blueprint, you really think it is just happenstance that all 4 Patriot QBs are almost precisely the same height/weight profile? They aren't looking for another Brady (as you mention that would be a foolish expectation). They have seen the physical attributes and intangibles in Brady that have made him successful. That gives them something to start with during evaluations. It would be equally foolish for them to look for a 6'2" mobile QB with a sidearm throwing motion with a gambling attitude.



A point that has been mentioned countless time (now countless + 1), the Pats had any number of opportunities to get a lineman. They chose not to. I don't know why and with the current injuries I'm not sure if they already regret the decision. Pick #94 was not their only or even best opportunity for bringing in some OLine help. They just didn't want anyone available at the positions where they selected.

As for the number of passes O'Connell makes in the next 4 years, hopefully he only makes 30 passes in mop-up duty and collects 4 championships along the way. The real point will be in 2011, what will the Pats have in O'Connell. A solid QB that has been Brady's backup for a year or two? That is worth a 3rd. Then the Pats can chose whether to re-sign him long term to try to trade his rights.

Anything more than a reliable backup and the Pats have a steal. If he never rises to 2nd string then he is a bust and you move on. Either way it will be interesting to see his progression.

This makes sense, I don't like it but it makes sense. For most positions they have a general physical makeup that they prefer. Your points are likely in-line with their thinking which answers my question of "Why?" and hits the key point.

Should more have been done to improve the O Line? Maybe
Even if the team starts Neal on the PUP and Kaczur is suspended they will survive. Indy went 13-3 with a rookie left tackle and several injuries. The Patriots are good and can manage through any weakness. If Neal misses 6 weeks and then comes back strong for the rest of the season that would be a huge boost.

My approach would be to have a veteran du jour be the backup with a youngster as option 3. Not my call though, BB must have lost my phone number.

 

[Metaphors]

My approach would be to have a veteran du jour be the backup with a youngster as option 3. Not my call though, BB must have lost my phone number.

There are still likely to be a good number of vet QBs looking for work before week 1, so I wouldn't give up just yet. I think the QB positions will be filled in house, but wouldn't be surprised in the least if Favre domino effect kicks loose a vet that the Pats would be interested in for a 1-year deal.

 

[cstjohn17]

There are still likely to be a good number of vet QBs looking for work before week 1, so I wouldn't give up just yet. I think the QB positions will be filled in house, but wouldn't be surprised in the least if Favre domino effect kicks loose a vet that the Pats would be interested in for a 1-year deal.

That would be truly crazy, why draft a QB in round 3? They have been content with Rohan Davey / Cassell as the primary backups. Why cut one of the young players now?

Again my approach would have been different but they are kind of pot committed now.

 

[patchick]

What about warm bodies walking the streets in August?

Eh, they have four OTs currently not practicing because of injury. That's not a planning/draft issue.

By the way, I was just ruminating on this:

I don't see the value in picking a development project, outside of Brady the Patriots have developed exactly 0 QBs.

Don't you think that, perhaps, that's the problem and O'Connell is supposed to be the solution? They've taken plenty of stabs at hitting the jackpot on 7th-round and beyond guys, and nobody feels very confident with the results. Ergo, it's time to step up and actually draft a prospect you're excited about.

 

[Metaphors]

That would be truly crazy, why draft a QB in round 3? They have been content with Rohan Davey / Cassell as the primary backups. Why cut one of the young players now?

Again my approach would have been different but they are kind of pot committed now.

O'Connell is the #3 and is technically too raw to see the field this year. If Cassel looks like he has hit his ceiling, he certainly won't be back in 2009. If Gutierrez doesn't show the ability to step up and be a backup, then he likely won't make the team this year.

That leaves the backup job to Cassel in the final year of his contract or a vet FA on a one-year deal. Again, I don't think they will sign a vet, but isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

What about Brady's Wolverine pal Griese after the Favre circus moves to Tampa? He isn't 6'4", 230 lb but nobody's perfect...

 

[Metaphors]

Don't you think that, perhaps, that's the problem and O'Connell is supposed to be the solution? They've taken plenty of stabs at hitting the jackpot on 7th-round and beyond guys, and nobody feels very confident with the results. Ergo, it's time to step up and actually draft a prospect you're excited about.

I also think the time was right. Brady will be 35 when O'Connell's rookie contract is up. I don't see Brady pulling a Favre so I think that is about the time the Pats need to be ready for Brady hanging 'em up. If O'Connell is "next", he should be ready to step in and likely won't break the bank on his first starter contract.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I also think the time was right. Brady will be 35 when O'Connell's rookie contract is up. I don't see Brady pulling a Favre so I think that is about the time the Pats need to be ready for Brady hanging 'em up. If O'Connell is "next", he should be ready to step in and likely won't break the bank on his first starter contract.

Unless he is injured, I see Brady playing deep into his 30's; especially if Manning goes deep as well.

The real question I have is can O'Connell throw the ball accurately. We know he can scramble and toss jump balls for his Wide outs to fight for, but what can he do in a structured environment that forces him to read defenses?

Granted I only saw 2 of his college games, but what I saw made me question O'Connell's ability to reead defenses and why we spent a 3rd orunder on the guy. Memories of Brock Williams and other past 3rd round busts are more easily called to mind than 3rd round hits in the BB era.

 

[cstjohn17]

Unless he is injured, I see Brady playing deep into his 30's; especially if Manning goes deep as well.

The real question I have is can O'Connell throw the ball accurately. We know he can scramble and toss jump balls for his Wide outs to fight for, but what can he do in a structured environment that forces him to read defenses?

Granted I only saw 2 of his college games, but what I saw made me question O'Connell's ability to reead defenses and why we spent a 3rd orunder on the guy. Memories of Brock Williams and other past 3rd round busts are more easily called to mind than 3rd round hits in the BB era.

Forget I was wromg, I just saw Cassell play. They have been watching Cassell in practice and without even seeing O'Connell play I know he is a better backup.

 

[patchick]

Forget I was wromg, I just saw Cassell play. They have been watching Cassell in practice and without even seeing O'Connell play I know he is a better backup.

LOL! I stopped by here specifically to see if you'd had such a thought.

For a minor-conference kid just coming off a major overhaul of his mechanics, O'Connell looked surprisingly good. And as Cassel is sadly demonstrating, decent backup QBs don't grow on trees.

 

[cstjohn17]

LOL! I stopped by here specifically to see if you'd had such a thought.

For a minor-conference kid just coming off a major overhaul of his mechanics, O'Connell looked surprisingly good. And as Cassel is sadly demonstrating, decent backup QBs don't grow on trees.

I have never been sold on Cassell but I did expect him to have the capability of coming into a game, handing the ball off 30 times and letting the defense try to win. That is completely out of the question now.

At least O'Connell can run, and with some of the holes in the O line he must feel like he was back at SD State.

It is so sad but I would kill for a backup QB that is at least on the same level as Joey Harrington or Rex Grossman.