If you look at the roster there are 17 players on it that are thirty years old or older. Most dynasties die, because the coaches get sentimental for their old veterans and then their is a forced massive exodus in a year or two and the team can't accommodate it, and still recover.
BB has done less of that than most but still age is catching up on the Pats. By 2010 there will have to be a lot of turnover of front line players. If BB decided to start making plans to turnover those 17 places within the next three years then 5 or 6 have to go this season. Can you name five 30 or older vets to cut?
Izzo, Pollard, Seau, Ross, Clement, Kenny Martin are all marginal players, that could yield to a youth movement, without much pain. But then the clump of the key players of the Pats Dynasty start showing up. Then there are Neal, Harrison, Bruschi, Webster who will need replacement by no later than the end of the next season. Followed by Faulk, Morris, Light, Hochstein, Vrabel, AD probably a year later.
Then Moss and Brady...
You look at the roster situation and (rightly so) see an upcoming transition. I believe though that if you look across the league this is a natural situation for successful teams. Your team core gets old together and/or contracts expire and the team success drives up the price for players to the point where you can't keep the team intact.
The thing I like about Belichick is that he tends to have an ongoing transition plan, even in the good times. Assuming 2003 was the intended completion date of the original transition (and 2001 was a pleasant surprise), then the Pats are about to enter year 6 of their championship run. Barring a disaster, they are stacked for the next 2 years. That is 7 years of uninterrupted title contention. That is seriously sweet.
So who is under contract for the transition years (2010-11):
- Koppen
- Welker
- Warren
- AD
- Mayo
- Crable
- Meriweather
- Wheatley
Guys (IMO) who need to also be a part of that transition:
- Wilfork - Absolutely must get a deal done, no question
- Mankins - Same here, as long as the money isn't silly
- Gostkowski - You don't want uncertain kicking game during a transition time
In an ideal world, Brady will also be part of this time on a new (and probably final) contract...but you can't be sure when Brady will want to move onto the next big thing in his life (especially if the Pats add another title or two).
If the Pats can keep the players above on the team through 2011 and if Brady still has the championship fire, the team still looks solid to me. So what needs to be done in the next 2 years to complete this transition:
1) Offensive tackle overhaul. Look for high draft picks to be used here in the next couple of years.
2) Continue the LB youth movement. Probably a mix of draft picks for gradual injection of youth and vets for stability.
3) 3-4 DE (even if Seymour re-signed). Not a pressing need but there are only so many of these type of guys on the planet. If one becomes available in the draft, look for the Pats to pounce.
4) QB future. Got 4 years to see if O'Connell is the guy. Keep bringing in developmental players and try to find another diamond in the rough.
Less pressing considerations include TE (can DThomas or Watson stay healthy enough to stick?) and CB (retain Hobbs or look for FA help?). Skill positions should be fine whether or not Maroney/CJack stay. Lots of candidates in draft and FA.
Assuming the Brady situation works out, I see a pretty healthy roster situation. The 2009 draft with an extra #2 and likely solid comp picks will be key making that transition a success.
The Colts, Cowboys and Chargers are all watching their championship clocks tick away. Their transition during this same timeframe is likely to be much trickier.
