The return game: A what if?

[ctpatsfan77]

To set up the scenario, here are some stats, courtesy of Football Outsiders, about the 2007 season:

Average starting LOS on their drives
Chicago: 34.43
NE: 31.96

Average yards gained per drive
Chicago: 22.57 (only SF, at 18.41, was worse)
NE: 41.63

In other words, a large part of the reason "kick off out of bounds" works is that the Bears offense is so brutally awful that giving them the ball at the 40 isn't a terrible idea.

So, here's my question . . . what do you think opposing coaches would do if Wheatley and/or Slater turn out to be the Pats' equivalent of Hester--i.e., a player who routinely gives the Pats good field possession on KOs? Would you just give the Pats the ball at the 40, knowing that they would almost certainly end up in scoring range, or kick off, and hope that your team could bring the return man down behind the 30?

 

[Major **********]

To set up the scenario, here are some stats, courtesy of Football Outsiders, about the 2007 season:

Average starting LOS on their drives
Chicago: 34.43
NE: 31.96

Average yards gained per drive
Chicago: 22.57 (only SF, at 18.41, was worse)
NE: 41.63

In other words, a large part of the reason "kick off out of bounds" works is that the Bears offense is so brutally awful that giving them the ball at the 40 isn't a terrible idea.

So, here's my question . . . what do you think opposing coaches would do if Wheatley and/or Slater turn out to be the Pats' equivalent of Hester--i.e., a player who routinely gives the Pats good field possession on KOs? Would you just give the Pats the ball at the 40, knowing that they would almost certainly end up in scoring range, or kick off, and hope that your team could bring the return man down behind the 30?

Kick it! Tom Brady ,Randy Moss and Wes Welker don't play ST. I'd take my chances against Devin Hester (if he played for the Pats) than against the offense starting at the 40.

 

[PatsFan37]

You have two options if you play a very good to great team. Play conservative and try to keep the score from being embarrassing. Play aggressive and try to win.

Any coach that tries to play the Pats conservative should be fired.

Kick the ball in bounds or onside. Hope for a penalty to drive the Pats back. That's what I would do. The teams that gave the Pats fits last year played them aggressive.

 

[Blizzzard]

The problem with that theory is that unlike the Bears, the Pats have the best offense in the league.... not the worst. So this theory doesn't work based on your own observations.

 

[JSn]

Yeah, I'd say it's a pin them in the back scenario.

I mean it's basically a matter who scares you more? A Hesterian KR or Brady/Moss/Welker/Faulk/Gaffney/Maroney/Jordan.

No contest! Kick it deep.

Plus, shouldn't we talking about punt returns? No team will be kicking off more than twice in a game against us this year anyway.

 

[Kontradiction]

Kick it! Tom Brady ,Randy Moss and Wes Welker don't play ST. I'd take my chances against Devin Hester (if he played for the Pats) than against the offense starting at the 40.

It's like the option of staying close to the Death Star or engaging a fleet of Star Destroyers... engaging the fleet is a much better option as you know your chances against the mighty Death Star (slim to none).