New England season wins over/under 13.5

[SoCal Bong]

Jeff Haney on New England’s unprecedented over/under line for season wins at one sports book, and why there are worthy arguments for each side

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/may/14/jeff-haney-new-englands-unprecedented-overunder-li/

Interesting to see that the Hilton has posted lines on select games:
• The Patriots are a 9-point favorite on the road against the Jets on Sept. 14.

• They’re a 3-point favorite at San Diego on Oct. 12.

• They’re a 14-point favorite against the Broncos on Oct. 20.

• They’re a 14-point favorite against the Jets on Nov. 13.

• They’re a 7-point favorite at Seattle on Dec. 7.

• They’re a 10-point favorite at Oakland on Dec. 14.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

On a related note, that site also lists odds on winning the divisions . . . the Colts are 2:1 favorites to win the AFC South, the Chargers 4:1 favorites in the West . . . and the Pats are 10:1 favorites to win the AFC East.

 

[Dfresh429]

I'll take the over.

The schedule this year...on paper...is brutally easy. I can see 3 games where the patriots will be favored by less than 7. Seattle, Indy and San Diego...

I gotta believe they will win at least two of those.

Anything less than 14-2 this year to me is a disappointing regular season.

 

[tedylb]

I'll take the over.

The schedule this year...on paper...is brutally easy. I can see 3 games where the patriots will be favored by less than 7. Seattle, Indy and San Diego...

I gotta believe they will win at least two of those.

Anything less than 14-2 this year to me is a disappointing regular season.

13.5 is an intriguing #. Barring injuries, I'd take the over too. But what really matters is winning the last playoff game.

 

[Kontradiction]

We can be 10-6 for all I care just as long as we're hoisting the Lombardi in Tampa Bay.

 

[Dfresh429]

13.5 is an intriguing #. Barring injuries, I'd take the over too. But what really matters is winning the last playoff game.

I completely agree...I am just saying...

 

[JoePats]

That's a really high number, not that I'm surprised it's that high. The Pats can have a good year, go 13-3, and you would lose an over bet. But you can't really go any higher than that. If you bump it a half game to 14, you need them to go 15-1 to win. That's absurd.

FYI, here are numbers for the entire league:

Patriots 13.5

Cowboys 11.5

Chargers 11

Colts 11

Jaguars 10.5

Packers 9.5

Steelers 9.5

Buccaneers 9

Giants 9

Saints 9

Seahawks 9

Bears 8.5

Broncos 8.5

Browns 8.5

Eagles 8.5

Panthers 8.5

Vikings 8.5

Bengals 8

Bills 8

Cardinals 8

Redskins 8

Titans 8

Ravens 7

Texans 7

Chiefs 6.5

Jets 6.5

Rams 6.5

49ers 6

Lions 6

Raiders 5

Dolphins 4.5

Falcons 4

Off the top of my head, kind of like the Raiders over, Jets over, Chiefs under, Giants over, Steelers over, and I would if forced to pick, take the Pats under

 

[BelichickFan]

I'd take the under. Easy schedule but a few injuries or close games that go the wrong way, 3 games are easy to lose.

 

[signbabybrady]

I am not placing a bet with that kind of line. 14 wins is not something I am putting money on in the NFL but at the sametime this team is to good not think they will do it. Just stay away from that bet.

 

[Mr.Muhozi]

i say lucky number 13

 

[BWareofDWare]

I read an article recently on a historical study of these lines and the gist of it was if a teams line was set at more than 8 wins to take the under on them and if it was less than 8 wins to take the over. While parity in the NFL isn't perfect it was enough to sway the "expected" wins from year to year. One thing the article didn't take into consideration was what you have to lay for each over/under. For example, on BoDog right now the Patriots line is set at 12.5. However, you'd have to wager $12 to win $10 on under 12.5 games, but only $11 to win $10 on over 12.5 games. These lines always are geared towards homerism also. You might have enough Colts fans that'd bet $10 each on them winning X number of games, but you probably don't have enough Colts haters willing to be the opposite. Because the majority of the money comes from fans betting "their" team if you add up all the over/under's it will add up to more total games than there are to possibly win this season.

 

[SoCal Bong]

There's also a good chance that the Pats will wrap up home field advantage pretty early and will be able to play their bench for at least a game or two without being concerned about the win. Remember the Flutie dropkick and Cassell missed two point conversion game against the Dolphins? That was the difference between winning and losing the over/under that season.

 

[Keegs]

that is a foolish bet.

 

[DynastyDriven]

We can be 10-6 for all I care just as long as we're hoisting the Lombardi in Tampa Bay.

AMEN to that, I'm done with streaks and records I just care about getting the trophy back now.

I would be tempted to say 14-2 with this schedule if the Patriots didnt have to travel to the west coast a whopping 4 times, so I will say 12-4 and under.

 

[Patjew]

I guessed 13-3 for this season, so that feels right.

 

[rabthepat]

Take the under...Superbowl "Loser" jinx.

 

[blackglass3]

Take the under...Superbowl "Loser" jinx.

 

[LuthierJr]

13.5 sounds about right. Vegas did good on this prediction. I'd be hard pressed to lay down money either way.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

As Pats fans who saw 16, 14 and 14 wins the last several years, the 13.5 number is something reasonable to debate. But step back and take a look at that number:

13.5

That's a HUGE number. That's respect in spades.

Gotta love being a Pats fan during the Brady/BB era.

Regards,
Chris

 

[WhiskeyBreath]

Under. 13-3