Draft Strategy - Why It Doesn't Matter If Your Pick Is Considered 'A Reach'

[maverick4]

It's not just Mayo, but even both corners, the ST phenom, and also the QB we picked up. Basically, this entire draft is a good example of the Pats taking THEIR players, in every round, regardless of how much others think we 'reached'. It shows how much confidence they have in their own analysis.

 

[ivesaidway2much]

Also if we were to take the 32nd least prepared FO in terms of draft scouting and compare it to the best TV analyst's draft scouting we would find even the worst team has done considerably more in terms of homework for the draft than the "experts" that call picks "a steal" or "a reach".

I don't know. I'm pretty sure I would take Mike Mayock over Matt Millen any day of the week. Heck, I'd consider a monkey throwing its own poop at names on a draft board over Matt Millen.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Good post Maverick ... I don't want to steal your idea here.
So may I suggest you make a thread:

Patriots Draft Reach Success and Failures ...

Deion Branch was considered a reach ... success.
Dan Graham was considered a reach ... success.
Logan Mankins was considered a reach ... success.

Chad Jackson was considered a reach ... so far failure, could change.

 

[patsfan13]

very good stuff MAv, I would also add that in the context of building a roster the draft is only 1 component, there is the process of deciding which players to resign, which Fa's to go after and how to allocate the cap space to produce the strongest team.

I am not a draftnick who reads all the junk and tries to reach conclusions about players I haven't seen in person or studied extensivly on tape. What I do enjoy about the draft is looking at the decision making process of the FO to try to understand what BB consders important in building the roster this year and the years beyond.

 

[Disco Volante]

Well the contracts get lower as the picks do so that kind of matters.

If you could choose between

A: Selecting Mayo @ #10 for more money
B: Selecting Mayo @ #14 for less money

You always choose B of course.

That wasn't an option for us seeing as no team with a lower pick than the Saints wanted to swap with us so it doesn't matter anyways and all is fine.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Well the contracts get lower as the picks do so that kind of matters.

If you could choose between

A: Selecting Mayo @ #10 for more money
B: Selecting Mayo @ #14 for less money

You always choose B of course.

That wasn't an option for us seeing as no team with a lower pick than the Saints wanted to swap with us at a price BB and SP would accept so it doesn't matter anyways and all is fine.

I elaborated on your post slightly for you.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FWIW, I remember an analogy (related to college admissions) that seems particularly appropriate here, especially in terms of deciding between positions:

Deciding who to admit isn't as simple as comparing apples and oranges. What you're basically doing is comparing apples and oranges, and then trying to decide which one, when fed to a cow, will produce the tastier steak a few years down the road.

If that isn't a fair assessment of what BB and SP are doing each year, I don't know what is.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

It doesn't matter. If you need a linebacker and he's projected to be at 15 but you pick him at 10, you got what you needed. It's dumb logic not to pick someone you like because he was projected at a certain spot if you think he won't be there when you pick next.

 

[maverick4]

if you think he won't be there when you pick next.

That is the key point. Doesn't matter if other 3rd party people think you took someone 5, 10, even 30 picks too early, as long as you project that your highest rated fit won't be around the next pick.

Also, to F.B.N: No problem, I don't care at all if you go and make that thread about historical reaches by the Pats who turned out great.

 

[MosiT]

Very good post and very well written.

While we as fans and the so called experts are always quick to judge how a particular team's draft was handled, it really is proven out come training camp and pre season.

There are those that will agree with the selections and those that will disagree with the selections but in the end, it is the players themselves, by virtue of their performance, that will make the final determination as to whether the selections were a reach a bust or well done.

Fans will always have differing opinions because it is human nature to do so.

But as I said in the end the validity or non validity of the player selections will come forth.

What may be a reach for one team with a particular player at a certain slot in the draft, may not be a reach for another team in the same slot.

I, for one, think the Mayo pick was a good one while the Wheatley pick was not, a reach so to speak.

But that will be found out in camp. Hopefully Wheatly will do what the team wants from him.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Good post Maverick ... I don't want to steal your idea here.
So may I suggest you make a thread:

Patriots Draft Reach Success and Failures ...

Deion Branch was considered a reach ... success.
Dan Graham was considered a reach ... success.
Logan Mankins was considered a reach ... success.

Chad Jackson was considered a reach ... so far failure, could change.

Actually, I believe that many felt Chad Jackson slipped to where the Patriots got him. He wasn't a reach.

 

[ATippett56]

Matt Slater was a huge reach in the fifth round. Don't try to sugarcoat that draft selection. In the meantime, the Patriots did not have to trade up in the fifth round to select inside linebacker Jonathan Goff from Vanderbilt.

 

[ATippett56]

Actually, I believe that many felt Chad Jackson slipped to where the Patriots got him. He wasn't a reach.

Chad Jackson was the highest wide receiver rated in the 2006 NFL Draft.

 

[FirstAndGoal]

That is the key point. Doesn't matter if other 3rd party people think you took someone 5, 10, even 30 picks too early, as long as you project that your highest rated fit won't be around the next pick.

Also, to F.B.N: No problem, I don't care at all if you go and make that thread about historical reaches by the Pats who turned out great.

That's it. The guy was projected by most to be a mid round pick. that puts him at 15 - 20 or close to that. The best offer the Pats had was from the Saints and that would have taken the Pats to the 40th pick. He definitely been gone by then. It was the right move if they really wanted him.

 

[maverick4]

If you encounter anyone who thinks Mayo was a 'reach', point them to this article by Chris Gasper:
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/05/01/working_man/?page=1

It's almost like Mayo was custom built his entire life to be a Patriot.

 

[maverick4]

I don't know. I'm pretty sure I would take Mike Mayock over Matt Millen any day of the week. Heck, I'd consider a monkey throwing its own poop at names on a draft board over Matt Millen.

Is Miillen still working!? Unbelievable.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Something related to this just came to thought. Couldn't it also be said that the reason the players who have left the team have not had as much success as they have had here is for the same reason?

When they are here they play like a higher draft pick because their talents are utilized as to the system. When they leave the team their value reverts to what it really is otherwise. Deion Branch played like a #1 pick here ... was picked in the 2nd round ... otherwise plays like a #3 pick where his real value was.

Same for many of the others that left here and became ordinary players. Belichick knows their value to the team and drafts accordingly in relation to will they be there come next pick?

 

[Double G]

If the Patriots indentified their #1 need going into the draft as inside linebacker and they had Mayo rated as the #1 guy at that position, it's not a reach for them, they were filling their biggest need with the best guy at that position.

If the top rated player at #10 was a quarterback, the Patriots would be fools to take him, despite what the mediots have to say...........

 

[stinkypete]

ILB seemed like a desperate need last offseason, and David Harris was sitting there at #28, why didn't the Pats draft him? Because he didn't carry the value on Belichick's board to justify taking him at that spot.

The only reach is when a team takes a player who is valued LOWER on their board to fill a need. If Mayo was drafted at #10, then I firmly believe that Belichick had him rated as his #10 or higher.

Pre-draft rankings are meaningless as far as we fans are concerned. These rankings are put together by bloggers and reporters with no affiliation to any NFL team. Just because Kiper had Mayo at #19 means nothing. Mayo could be a future hall of famer. He could also be a bust. His pre draft ranking has no bearing on that outcome.

If you listened to Belichick's interview on WEEI, he talked about how at the start of day 2, teams begin moving aggressively to get the guys who are much higher on their boards than on the boards of other teams. The point, value is relative.

 

[Deus Irae]

The point, value is relative.

This quote is true, for the most part. However, we all know that the teams don't hand out their draft boards to the media prior to the draft. What they do hand out is as much misinformation as possible, in the hopes of throwing other teams off about the players they want. They then follow up the draft with a host of new lies ("he was the #1 receiver on our board even though we picked him in the 7th round", etc...).

This is why we can't evaluate 'reaches' on a team by team basis, and have to base it on the general pool of knowledge. Teams leave the media, and the fans, no choice but to use an alternate method of evaluating how the draft went, as far as 'winners', 'losers', 'reaches', 'sliders', etc... The fact that the system being used isn't perfect does not mean that the system should be tossed out. Sometimes in life, second-rate is the best you can do.