Sam's 1st Round Mock Redux 1.1 4.23.08

[SamBamsFan]

ROUND ONE

1. Miami -
Picks (9)- 1, 32, 57, 64, 100, 195, 204, 208, 245
Needs- OT, CB, WR, QB, G
Key adds-
OG Justin Smiley,WR Ernest Wilford, QB Josh McCown , FS Chris Crocker, CB Nathan Jones, LB Reggie Torbor ,DT Randy Starks, DT Jason Ferguson
Losses-
MLB Zach Thomas, C Rex Hadnot, WR Marty Booker, QB Trent Green
Previous pick- Jake Long, OT, Michigan

Tuna likes them big. Helps mock drafters everywhere by giving them a gimmee on the first pick.

Pick- Jake Long, OT, Michigan

2. St. Louis -
Picks (9)- 2, 33, 65, 101, 137, 168, 180, 217, 252
Needs- DE/DT, WR, C, OLB, OT
Key adds-
K Josh Brown, G Jacob Bell, TE Anthony Becht, WR Reche Caldwell, CB David Macklin, QB Trent Green
Losses-
. LB Brandon Chillar, G Milford Brown, WR Isaac Bruce, QB Gus Frerotte
Previous pick- Chris Long, DE, Virginia

With Jake Long’s signing, did you notice the sudden intrigue/ interest in the top 10? Regardless, I am going with Dorsey, who I feel is the top defensive player in the draft. Adam Carriker shifts back outside to his familiar DE position.

Pick- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

3. Atlanta -
Picks (11)- 3, 34, 37, 48, 68, 98, 103, 138, 172, 212, 232
QB, DT, OT, G, TE
Key Adds-
RB Michael Turner, TE Ben Hartsock, C Alex Stepanovich, FS Erik Coleman, DT Kindal Moorehead, CB Von Hutchins, K Jason Elam
Losses-
CB DeAngelo Hall, LB Demorrio Williams, DT Rod Coleman, RB Warrick Dunn, TE Alge Crumpler, LT Wayne Gandy, QB Byron Leftwich
Previous pick- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU

With Dorsey off the board, Atlanta shifts to plan B. I think what you are hearing today from the Jets is just noise. Dorsey and Ryan both fit the Falcon’s needs. It would take a lot to get them to back up from this pick.

Pick- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

4. Oakland –

Picks (5)- 4, 104, 169, 213, 226
DE/DT, OT/G, SLB, WR, RB
Key adds-
CB DeAngelo Hall,WR Javon Walker, WR Drew Carter, OT Kwame Harris, C John Wade, FS Gibril Wilson, DT William Joseph and DE Kalimba Edwards
Losses-
DE Chris Clemons, DE Tyler Brayton, DB Chris Carr, WR Jerry Porter ,QB Josh McCown, DT Warren Sapp retired and OT Barry Sims.
Previous pick- Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State

Who knows what Al will do? All I know is that with turmoil that was going on last winter, Coordinator Ryan seemed to come away with more toys. I think that it will continue on Saturday with the most intriguing “D” prize of the year.

Pick- Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State

5. Kansas City -
Picks (10)- 5, 17, 35, 66, 105, 136, 140, 170, 187, 210, 239
OT, CB, DT, G/C, WR, QB
Key Adds-
WR Devard Darling, OLB Demorrio Williams
Losses-
TE Kris Wilson , OC Casey Wiegmann CB Ty Law, WR Eddie Kennison, LB Kendrell Bell and OT John Welbourn
Previous pick- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College

The trade of Allen last nite has many mockers scurrying. Most had KC going OT in this position as the need was glaring on the Oline. Because of value, I am going D Line here, and hope that O Line & DB can be addressed @ 17 & 35.
Pick- Chris Long, DE, Virginia

6. New York Jets -
Picks (6)- 6, 36, 102, 113, 171, 211
DE, CB, WR, FS, ILB, RB
Key Adds-
G Alan Faneca, RT Damien Woody, FB Tony Richardson, LB Calvin Pace, NT Kris Jenkins
Losses-
FS Erik Coleman, LB Jonathan Vilma, LB Victor Hobson, WR Justin McCareins
Previous pick- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

If Clemons is to succeed as a Jet he definitely needs an upgrade at the skill positions. With Ryan taken, and WR pretty much a “meh” position this year that means…

Pick- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas

7. Trade- New Orleans (from SF., through NE) –

Picks (6)- 7, 62, 78, 146, 178, 218
CB, DT, LB, TE, ROT, S
Key adds-
LB Dan Morgan, CB Randall Gay, DE Bobby McCray, LB Jonathan Vilma.
Losses-
C Jeff Faine, LB Brian Simmons and K Olindo Mare.
Previous pick- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC

NE is a little stuck here. Ellis would be the obvious pick talent- wise, but he is an unsure fit for the Pats 3-4 defense. Rivers doesn’t excite me, and the CB’s available I have rated starting @ 13. Thankfully Ellis is a fit for teams like NO, Cincinnati & Carolina. The Pats after listening to offers trade picks 7 & 62 for NO’s #10 & 40.
Pick- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC


8. Baltimore –

Picks (9)- 8, 38, 99, 106, 133, 173, 206, 215, 240
CB, QB, LOT, OLB/DE, ILB
Key add-
LB Brendon Ayanbadejo
Losses-
RB Mike Anderson, C Mike Flynn
Previous pick- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State

With Ryan taken, Ozzie sits in Baltimore & knows that he’ll either have his choice of Tackles, either on O, or D. After Ellis is chosen he selects…
Pick- Ryan Clady

9. Cincinnati –

Picks (10)- 9, 46, 77, 97, 112, 145, 177, 207, 244, 246
NT, DE, LB, WR, C
Key adds-
DE Antwan Odom, LB Darryl Blackstock and TE Ben Utecht
Losses-
DE Justin Smith, LB Landon Johnson, S Madieu Williams C Alex Stepanovich, & WR Chris Henry
Previous pick- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

Front 7 help. Bengals take the best available.
Pick- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC

10. Trade- New England (from NO) –

Picks (8)- 10, 40, 69, 94, 129, 164, 197, 238
ILB, OLB, CB, ROT, TE
Key adds-
CB Jason Webster, CB Lewis Sanders, CB Fernando Bryant, & SS Tank Williams
Losses-
CB Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay, FS Eugene Wilson, & WR Donte' Stallworth

Pardon me if I’m not excited by the choices. We have our pick of CB’s, a good selection of O linemen. Last time I felt like this was about 2005. Excuse me while I have a “Logan Mankins moment” (I think that he’d go at 15 to Detroit so it is not as much a reach as many would think).
Previous pick- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Pick- Jerod Mayo LB, Tenn

11. Buffalo –

Picks (10)- 11, 41, 72, 114, 132, 147, 179, 219, 224, 251
WR, TE, CB, DE, FS
Key add-
LB Kawika Mitchell, CB William James , DT Marcus Stroud, DT Spencer Johnson
Losses-
TE Michael Gaines
Previous pick- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

Everyone has them pegged for a CB, or reaching for the top WR. The Bills think a little differently than most of us. I am going to add speed to their D Line.
Pick- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

12. Denver –

Picks (9)- 12, 42, 108, 119, 139, 148, 183, 220, 227
OT, WR, DT, MLB, S
Key adds-
WR Keary Colbert, S Marlon McCree, C Casey Wiegmann, S Marquand Manuel, MLB Niko Koutouvides, & LB Boss Bailey
Losses-
LOT Matt Lepsis, OLB Ian Gold, WR Javon Walker, C Chris Myers , PK Jason Elam, S Nick Ferguson, GM Ted Sundquist
Previous pick- Chris Williams OT, Vanderbilt

Busy off season for the Broncos. They have been in a rut the past few years, now Shanahan has fired his GM Sundquist. I would guess that he wants to put his stamp on the draft. I just don’t know what that is. For Cutler to get better, he really must improve his O Line. Expect a move.
Pick- Branden Albert, OG, Virginia

13. Carolina -
Picks (10)- 13, 43, 67, 74, 109, 141, 181, 221, 241, 250
ROT, FS, DE, RB, TE
Key Adds-
WR D.J. Hackett, OLB Landon Johnson, WR Muhsin Muhammad, DE Tyler Brayton, DE Mike Rucker
Losses-
RB DeShaun Foster, C Justin Hartwig, LB Dan Morgan, QB David Carr , G Mike Wahle, Drew Carter , Keary Colbert, & DT Kris Jenkins
Previous pick- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida

Shut out in the Ellis sweepstakes, Fox & Co move to upgrade their O Line.
Pick- Chris Williams OT, Vanderbilt

14. Chicago -
Picks (11)- 14, 44, 70, 90, 110, 142, 175, 222, 243, 247, 248
OT, QB, RB, WR, G
Key adds-
WR Marty Booker, WR Brandon Lloyd
Losses-
WRs Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad. OL Ruben Brown, OL Fred Miller, TE John Gilmore, DTs Darwin Walker, Antonio Garay and Jimmy Kennedy,LB Brendon Ayanbadejo
Previous pick- Branden Albert, OG, Virginia

They need a tackle/ offensive line upgrade. They need a new QB. They lost both of their starting WR’s. I think they go in state for a RB.
Pick- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

15. Detroit -
Picks (8)- 15, 45, 76, 87, 111, 144, 176, 216
RB, DE, OT, LB, DT
Key adds-
S Dwight Smith,S Kalvin Pearson and CB Brian Kelly, CB Leigh Bodden, DT Chuck Darby, TE Michael Gaines
Losses-
Shaun Rogers, LB Boss Bailey LB Teddy Lehman, CB Fernando Bryant, DE Kalimba Edwards , and S Kenoy Kennedy , RB T.J. Duckett ,G Damien Woody , RB Kevin Jones, QB J.T. O'Sullivan, WR Troy Walters, G Blaine Saipaia
Previous pick- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois

Known for making some unusual choices, I think Millen might be at it again. He goes for the big upside play. Hey, every week people win the megabucks… most gambling with money they can’t afford to lose.
Pick- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon

 

[SamBamsFan]

16. Arizona -
Picks (7)- 16, 50, 81, 116, 149, 185, 225
CB, FS, RB, LOT, WR, S
Key adds-
LB Clark Haggans, DE Travis LaBoy
Losses-
LB Calvin Pace , WR Bryant Johnson, Safety Terrence Holt, LB Darryl Blackstock, DT Chris Cooper , Keydrick Vincent
Previous pick- Mike Jenkins, CB, USF

Arizone is stunned. Pick 16 & no CB’s have been taken. They promptly select the best available on my list.
Pick- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy

17. Trade- Kansas City (from Minn.) -
Previous pick- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St. (Minn. Pick)

This is the day for KC to pick up solid linemen. Hey, it’s not sexy but…
Pick- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

18. Houston -
Picks (5)- 18, 79, 118, 151, 223
CB, LOT, DE, OG/C, S
Key adds-
LB Chaun Thompson LB Kevin Bentley, CB Jacques Reeves, S Nick Ferguson, OL Chris Myers, RB Chris Brown
Previous pick- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh

The value has gone down for OT after the last few picks. I think that they go for best available CB. For many that would be the athletic DRC. I believe that Jenkins might be a better fit in their system.

Pick- Mike Jenkins, CB, USF

19. Philadelphia –

Picks (11)- 19, 49, 80, 115, 131, 152, 184, 191, 200, 203, 230
S, WR, LB, OT/G, DE
Key adds-
CB Asante Samuel, DE Chris Clemons, FB Dan Klecko
Losses-
LB Takeo Spikes, DE Jevon Kearse, FB Thomas Tapeh DB William James
Previous pick- Jerod Mayo, LB, Tenn

No huge needs for Philly, thought they have plenty of places to upgrade. No WRs taken. No problem. Philly takes the most athletic available.
Pick- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St.

20. Trade- Dallas (from TB)-
Picks (7)- 22, 28, 61, 92, 163, 167, 235
CB, WR, RB, OT, S
Key adds-
LB Zach Thomas
Losses-
CB Jacques Reeves, S Keith Davis,NT Jason Ferguson, RB Julius Jones
Previous pick- DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal (TB pick)

Both TB & Washington are known to want to move down. JJ offers TB their 4th (126) to move down 2 positions. Dallas grabs…
Pick- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State

21. Washington -
Picks (9)- 21, 51, 84, 96, 154, 186, 228, 242, 249
WR, S, DE, OL, CB
Key adds-
Losses-
WR Brandon Lloyd, QB Mark Brunell
Previous pick- Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma

Everyone has them picking a WR w/ size if they stay (rumored to want to move down). I’ll bite.
Pick- Limus Sweed

22. Trade- Tampa Bay (from Dallas) –
Picks (6)- 20, 52, 83, 120, 126 153
S, WR, LB, OT/G, DE
Key adds-
C Jeff Faine, TE Ben Troupe, TE John Gilmore RB Warrick Dunn QB Brian Griese, WR Antonio Bryant, DE Marques Douglas, DE Jimmy Wilkerson, LB Teddy Lehman, LB Leon Joe , CB/S Eugene Wilson
Losses-
FB Mike Alstott, TE Anthony Becht, OL Matt Lehr , LDE Greg Spires, CB Brian Kelly and S Kalvin Pearson
Previous pick- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon (Dallas pick)

I think they just picked up a 4th rounder, and got the choice they wanted anyway.
Pick- DeSean Jackson, WR, Cal

23. Pittsburgh-
Picks (6)- 23, 53, 88, 123, 156, 188
DE (3-4), OT, WR, G, FS
Key adds-
RB Mewelde Moore, ST Keyaron Fox C Justin Hartwig.
Losses-
LG Alan Faneca, WR Cedrick Wilson, OLB Clark Haggans
Previous pick- Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

I’m still going Merling here.
Pick- Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson

24 Trade- Atlanta(from Tenn)–

So there was Tenn. on the clock when offers start pouring in for teams that want to move for a QB. Oh, and Pittsburg had just taken the player they wanted. Atlanta has the ammunition in this years draft and trade their picks 34 & 68 for pick 24(and yes, I understand that this is a slight overpay when you look at the matrix).

Atlanta Picks- Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College


25. Seattle -
Picks (6)- 25, 55, 86, 121, 189, 233
TE, WR, DT, OL, S
Key adds-
RB T.J. Duckett RB Julius Jones G Mike Wahle, TE Jeb Putzier
Losses-
Shaun Alexander, K Josh Brown, WR D.J. Hackett TE Pollard, T Tom Ashworth
Previous pick- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Pick- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas

26. Jacksonville -
Picks (8)- 26, 58, 71, 89, 125, 143, 158, 159
DE, DT, SS, OT, WR
Key adds-
WR Troy Williamson, WR Jerry Porter, DT Jimmy Kennedy CB Drayton Florence, Cleo Lemon
Losses-
DT Marcus Stroud, S Sammy Knight, DE Bobby McCray, WR Ernest Wilford RB LaBrandon Toefield, G Chris Naeole, DT Grady Jackson and QB Quinn Gray
Previous pick- Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn

I have been hearing that Groves won’t get past this pick. Thus.
Pick- Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn

27. Trade- Miami (from SD) –

This pick has been for sale all spring it seems. The Tuna didn’t have enough ammunition to move up for Tenn.’s spot, but there are rumors that he is after this man anyway. Tenn receives Miami’s picks 32 & 100.

Pick- Chad Henne, QB, Michigan

28. Dallas -
Previous pick- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

Dallas had been shopping this pick but all the buyers seem to have jumped them.
Pick- Kenny Phillips, S, Miami

29. San Francisco -
Picks (6)- 29, 39, 75, 107, 174, 214
ROT, OLB, WR, OL, QB, CB
Key adds-
WR Isaac Bruce, WR Bryant Johnson, RB DeShaun Foster, DE Justin Smith
Losses-
DE Bryant Young. LB Derek Smith, Guard Justin Smiley T Kwame Harris, RB Maurice Hicks
Previous pick- Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
Pick- Lawrence Jackson DE USC

30. Green Bay -
Picks (8)- 30, 56, 60, 91, 128, 135, 162, 237
CB, S, OT, TE, QB
Previous pick- Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
Key adds-
None
Losses-
Brett Favre, DT Corey Williams, TE Bubba Franks

Lack of speed might hurt him in the pros. If so, he’ll be a dynamic Safety.

Pick- Brandon Flowers CB VA Tech

31. New England ***pick stolen***

32. New York Giants -
Picks (8)- 31, 63, 95, 130, 165, 194, 198, 199
S, OLB, CB, WR, G/T, DT
Key add-
S Sammy Knight
Losses-
S Gibril Wilson, LB Kawika Mitchell, LB Reggie Torbor
Previous pick- Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech

I’m just feeling defensive backfield with this pick.

Pick- Tyrell Johnson, S, Ark. St.

 

[patchick]

Sorry I missed this when you first posted! Really excellent work, one of the best I've seen.

 

[SamBamsFan]

Sorry I missed this when you first posted! Really excellent work, one of the best I've seen.

Thanks-
I'll probably have to redo my redux. For some reason I didn"t anticipate the Pacman trade, and a couple of other things have come up. Stay tuned...

 

[mac]

Sorry I missed this when you first posted! Really excellent work, one of the best I've seen.

I agree, a very professional job.

 

[modman]

Great job. The Pats grabbing Mayo at #10 is exactly the kind of unexpected pick you would expect from BB. I know some may think this is a reach but I disagree. Give this kid a year under the tutalege of Bruschi and Seau(assuming he comes back) and the Pats will have a real stud to lead their next generation of linebackers.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I don't think the Pats got enough value for moving down in the 1st round. Granted it's only 3 spots, but Sedrick Ellis is the last blue chip DT left in the entire draft. The Pats shouldn't have to throw in their 2nd rounder as well. I think the Pats are reaching for Mayo. They should trade down at least once more before settling for an ILB. I really don't think ILB is that urgent a need with Hobson in the fold. I'd rather they draft an OLB that can pin his ears back and get after the QB.

 

[PATRIOT64]

Excellent draft I must say but I do expect the Steelers to replace Faneca immediately by taking a first rounder on the OG or OT position.

Its not out of possibility that Pitt trades up to #7 with NE to grab one of the better OGs/OTs in this draft

 

[SamBamsFan]

Excellent draft I must say but I do expect the Steelers to replace Faneca immediately by taking a first rounder on the OG or OT position.

Its not out of possibility that Pitt trades up to #7 with NE to grab one of the better OGs/OTs in this draft

Thanks-
I agree with you that Pitt is looking for help on the offensive line. Merling just seems like such a natural fit for their D. I think that Pitt would be better served from a value perspective by drafting Merling here and addressing the O line @ 53 & 88. Pittsburg would have trouble trading up that high in the 1st. Looking at the Matrix they would have to add more than 700 points, which is more than the value of all their other picks combined.

 

[SamBamsFan]

I don't think the Pats got enough value for moving down in the 1st round. Granted it's only 3 spots, but Sedrick Ellis is the last blue chip DT left in the entire draft. The Pats shouldn't have to throw in their 2nd rounder as well. I think the Pats are reaching for Mayo. They should trade down at least once more before settling for an ILB. I really don't think ILB is that urgent a need with Hobson in the fold. I'd rather they draft an OLB that can pin his ears back and get after the QB.

I hate depending on the matrix but using it here, the difference in value between the 40th pick and the 62nd pick is 220 points. That basically makes it a fair trade. Given the competition for this spot if Ellis is still around, they might get an added 3rd next year, or something of that nature.

Reaching for Mayo? That's fair enough. The Pats have never had an issue with reaching for the player that they wanted in the past. Is Mayo that player? I guess we have to tune in Saturday...

On drafting an OLB. I agree that we need an edge rusher. I've wanted one for the past 5 drafts. This draft is just underway so it is hard to fill all the needs with one pick. I have two more rounds coming, and now have a juicy pick @#9 of the second round.