Jake Long/Dolphins close on deal - C Long to Rams?

[BradyToMoss]

"NBCSports.com's Tom Curran reports the Dolphins are nearing a contract agreement with Michigan OT Jake Long.

The deal would make Long the No. 1 overall pick. The Dolphins began talks with Long's agent, Tom Condon, two weeks ago and never engaged in serious deliberations with any other player. Curran writes that with Long off the board, St. Louis is "a lock" to use the No. 2 pick on a defensive player. UVA DE Chris Long is reportedly "very confident" he'll be the Rams' choice."

Let the Atlanta struggle begin between Dorsey and Ryan.................

 

[BelichickFan]

Yeah, saw that - VERY interesting. I would think Atlanta would take Dorsey but with the injury thing still sitting there they may not want to risk it.

FWIW, Peter King's mock from today :

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/peter_king/04/20/mmqb/index.html

goes :

Long
Long
Ryan
Dorsey
Clady
McFadden
7. New England. DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State. I think the Patriots will sniff around a couple of guys this week, most notably Chris Long in the off-chance he makes it to No. 7, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade up to the Chiefs' pick if they think the Jets might be Gholston people. Remember how weak the Patriot rush was in the Super Bowl -- and fairly consistently weak at points late in the season? Richard Seymour's postseason: 12 quarters, zero quarterback pressures or sacks. New England has to address that.

The one thing that would stun me is a cornerback. Bill Belichick, in Cleveland and in New England, has had 14 first-round picks, and only once did he take a cornerback -- Antonio Langham, the just-OK DB from Alabama in 1994, picked way too high at No. 9 overall. The Patriots plucked Asante Samuel in the fourth round. They're far more likely to help their front seven if they pick at No. 7, then take a cornerback down the line.

 

[PatsDparty]

I think ATL would take Dorsey. Then it gets interesting:

You have OAK at 4, and they could take McFadden or Gholston. Let's assume they take McFadden, that's when you'll see if the Pats really like Gholston. B/c if they do like him enough, there's no way they'll let the Jets (out of all teams), scoop him up, and they might trade up with KC. However, KC could just stay and take Ryan. Should be fun to watch.

 

[PatsDparty]

Yeah, saw that - VERY interesting. I would think Atlanta would take Dorsey but with the injury thing still sitting there they may not want to risk it.

FWIW, Peter King's mock from today :

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/peter_king/04/20/mmqb/index.html

goes :

Long
Long
Ryan
Dorsey
Clady
McFadden
7. New England. DE Vernon Gholston, Ohio State. I think the Patriots will sniff around a couple of guys this week, most notably Chris Long in the off-chance he makes it to No. 7, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade up to the Chiefs' pick if they think the Jets might be Gholston people. Remember how weak the Patriot rush was in the Super Bowl -- and fairly consistently weak at points late in the season? Richard Seymour's postseason: 12 quarters, zero quarterback pressures or sacks. New England has to address that.

The one thing that would stun me is a cornerback. Bill Belichick, in Cleveland and in New England, has had 14 first-round picks, and only once did he take a cornerback -- Antonio Langham, the just-OK DB from Alabama in 1994, picked way too high at No. 9 overall. The Patriots plucked Asante Samuel in the fourth round. They're far more likely to help their front seven if they pick at No. 7, then take a cornerback down the line.

I'd be thrilled if that happens, but I wonder if the Jets would take McFadden over Gholston, despite the fact that they've been dining him out 3 times last week.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'd be thrilled if that happens, but I wonder if the Jets would take McFadden over Gholston, despite the fact that they've been dining him out 3 times last week.

I think they would take McFadden. They have nothing on offense. NOTHING. Last year their only real picks were defense. They signed mostly defensive FA. IMO they've made their bed with their defensive additions already and now need some kind of offensive threat.

 

[bakes781]

Why is it a certainty that St. Louis is taking Chris Long? I think Dorsey is the better fit for them.

 

[Zeke_Mowatt]

UVA DE Chris Long is reportedly "very confident" he'll be the Rams' choice."

Bummer, was hoping they'd take Dorsey or Ellis and leave us more options at #7 depending on whether Ryan or DMF was still on the board as well...

 

[mgteich]

We could get lucky and fine Chris Long or Gholston available at #7, but I would count on it. Why would someone trade with Oakland or KC? Why would the jets take Gholston, or even move up for him?

Jake Long is top 3
Dorsey is top 3
Chris Long or Gholston are top 3; the other is top 5.
Ryan could be #3 or #8 or #13

SCENARIO ONE - RYAN CHOSEN IN THE TOP THREE
Oakland will not pass on the widebody stud - Dorsey or Ellis.
If we want Gholston, we need to trade with KC.

SCENARIO TWO - RYAN NOT CHOSEN IN THE TOP THREE
Oakland would then have lost Dorsey. They might take Ellis or Gholston or McFadden.
Oakland will also listen to calls from the jets and the patriots.
We can gamble out Oakland's pick, but then the patriots and the jets are talking to KC.

SCENARIO - WAIT AND SEE
Forget Gholston.
We would see two of Ryan, MacFadden, Ellis and Clady available. Is that the pretty picture you want? If not, we need to trade up.

 

[NE39]

Ozzie Newsome thinks it is all a ruse by Miami, and they are going to take Chris Long if they can't trade out:

“I think one of the best parts of the draft is the intrigue that goes with it with what other teams are going to do," Newsome said. "Right now, probably half of you think Jake Long is going to be the No. 1 pick. I’d probably smile and say that’s not going to happen. And, [Miami is] negotiating with the kid right now, for whatever reason."

Newsome believes the Dolphins are still desperately trying to trade out of the top pick but would end up picking Chris Long if they have to stay at No. 1. Newsome's guess is as good as any because he bases how he handles the Baltimore draft, in part, on how Parcells has traditionally done things.

 

[BradyToMoss]

"Citing NFL personnel sources, the Miami Herald reports that the Ravens are actively pursuing a trade up in the draft.

The Ravens have reportedly called teams picking no higher than No. 3 overall so far, but the Herald says they might eventually try to get to No. 1. Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome denied wanting to trade up at Steve McNair's retirement presser last week."

Matt Ryan intrigue continues

 

[mgteich]

I think most are convinced Jake Long and either Chris Long or Gholston are the top two picks in either order. #3 to #10 should be fun! There will be lots and lots of trade talk.

 

[bakes781]

Bummer, was hoping they'd take Dorsey or Ellis and leave us more options at #7 depending on whether Ryan or DMF was still on the board as well...

Since when do we consider the prospect himself a credible source?

I think Dorsey goes #2 & then it's either Chris Long or Matt Ryan at #3. I agree that whatever Atlanta does at #3 will have a domino affect on the entire draft.

If Atl takes Long then Oakland likely takes McFadden IMO.

If Atl takes Ryan then Oakland takes Howie's son.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Once again, the smart picks are: Fins: J. Long, Rams: Dorsey- so what if he's not 100 percent healthy onb draft day, he is worth the pick and by far the most sure thing inthe draft, and Atlanta Ryan- the need a QB and the Ryan pick can also get the fan base excited again.

I agree that he Jets should take McFadden if the Raider don't. They need a play maker on offense and will stay .500 team at best until they get one.

 

[bakes781]

I know most have KC pencilled for an OL at #5 but couldn't they conceivably take McFadden & address OL later?

 

[BelichickFan]

I know most have KC pencilled for an OL at #5 but couldn't they conceivably take McFadden & address OL later?

That would be one weird pick with Larry Johnson there. Sure they'd be able to have different roles but for a bad team that's too many resources tied up in one position.

 

[Metaphors]

Once again, the smart picks are: Fins: J. Long, Rams: Dorsey- so what if he's not 100 percent healthy onb draft day, he is worth the pick and by far the most sure thing inthe draft, and Atlanta Ryan- the need a QB and the Ryan pick can also get the fan base excited again.

:agree:
Then the real fun happens from #4 to #7 with McFadden, CLong, Gholston and Ellis in play. KC taking McFadden is about the only scenario that doesn't make sense. Trading action a serious possibility. You even have until 3:30 eastern to work in the yard, play with the kids and get the honey-do list complete.

I typically get hyped for the draft but this year it is just silly. If Belichick and Pioli cough up a hairball this year I'm going to need therapy.

 

[bakes781]

That would be one weird pick with Larry Johnson there. Sure they'd be able to have different roles but for a bad team that's too many resources tied up in one position.

It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened. When they selected LJ I don't think that was highly anticipated at all either with Holmes there.

 

[Handel]

Why is it a certainty that St. Louis is taking Chris Long? I think Dorsey is the better fit for them.

They need pass rush. They already have Carriker inside from last year.

So, it can be Gholston too at 2.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

If Miami takes Jake Long and the Rams take Dorsey, which is as likely as anything else, then Ryan very well could go to Atlanta. That changes things because otherwise Ryan was projected to slip to 7 (if we trade down) or 8 (Ravens).

4-7 gets pretty interesting if Ryan is off the table:

4- Raiders
5- Chiefs
6- Jets
7- NE

with these prospects:

C Long
Ellis
McFaddden
Gholsten

Our chances of getting Gholsten (assuming BB wants him) go up dramatically if Ryan goes at #3.

 

[BelichickFan]

It's unlikely, but stranger things have happened. When they selected LJ I don't think that was highly anticipated at all either with Holmes there.

I know but they were a stronger team back then. They are weak in so many places, I just don't think there's any chance they decide they can afford that.