My Pats Mock Draft Take 2

[NePatriots]

We trade #7 to Carolina for #13 and #67.

#13 - Branden Albert - OG/OT - Virginia

Trade #62 and #67 to Detroit Lions for #45 and #111

#45 - Cliff Avril - OLB/DE - Purdue

#69 - Charles Godfrey - CB - Iowa

#94 - Chevis Jackson - CB - LSU

Round 4a - Jonathan Goff - ILB - Vanderbilt

Round 4b - Kellen Davis - TE - Mich. St.

Round 5a - Erik Ainge - QB - Tenn

Round 5b - Owen Schmitt - FB - WVU

Round 6 - DRAGO - P - NDSU

Round 7 - Mike Klinkenborg - ILB - Iowa

 

[jeffbiologist]

I like the idea and the players but I think you are being a little greedy with the trades. The value chart says 7 and 62 = 13 and 45 more of less. We will be initiating the trade, so I would 86 #111 and hope to get Goff in the 5th instead of Ainge.

 

[NePatriots]

I like the idea and the players but I think you are being a little greedy with the trades. The value chart says 7 and 62 = 13 and 45 more of less. We will be initiating the trade, so I would 86 #111 and hope to get Goff in the 5th instead of Ainge.

which chart though? Even without the #111 I would be very happy.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Man this looks like a cookie cutter draft. What's up with all the group think - Branden Albert drafts? Drafting a guard with a high 1st rounder is hardly one of the Pats most pressing needs for 2008.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Man this looks like a cookie cutter draft. What's up with all the group think - Branden Albert drafts? Drafting a guard with a high 1st rounder is hardly one of the Pats most pressing needs for 2008.

WE don't draft for need. We draft for value. Albert is inching into the top ten on a lot of boards. Mayock has been on him for weeks, says he projects as a tackle. He seems to think we can address some needs like CB and pure pass rusher and ILB in the second and third rounds which would make those value picks.

 

[wiggins!]

Mo, I used to believe that "we don't draft for need" thing too but hear me out on this one and i'm only going 1st rounders.

Last year, Merriweather - turns out to be a starter at the beginning of the year (see rodney's suspension) and then basically a "5th or 6th man" in the secondary.

06, Maroney - splits time with CD rookie year (very good season by the way) and is now the starter.

05, Mankins - starter from the get-go at left guard.

There's obvious value with each of those picks and where they were made but as it turns out, there was a "need" wasn't there?

I don't think the "need" vs. "value" argument is as clear cut as everyone thinks.

I believe, IMO, if they pick in the top 15, it's best player available.

I still maintain this year, IF, and it's a big if, for some reason, McFadden's there at 7 an no trades are in the works, he's a Pat next year.

Just wanted to toss that out there and see what you think.

 

[State]

Great job. I love the idea of solidifying our OL, which is held together by damn good coaching (my man Dante S.) and chicken guts and bailing wire.

Stephen Neal, Nick Kaczur?

Matt Light probably should be a guard or right tackle.

If we get exposed this year like we did in the SB, then our unquestioned best asset--Tom Brady--is harmed. And I don't hope literally.

We've been lucky so far with a patched up OL and going high with defense, but let's turn the tables around and go interior line at offensive to bring some skill and athleticism.

Albert would be versatile enough to plug in at guard or right tackle. It's all about keeping Brady safe, unharried, to make the appropriate reads.

Here's what I suspect is the Patriots flow chart: If Gholston is available at 7, take him. Otherwise trade down to get more value. I think Keith Rivers or Brandon Albert are two players with good value a few spots later in the draft, though both are risky past #10. Hell, I wouldn't be upset if the Pats stayed where they are to draft either one.

I definitely don't like a CB at #7. I think the talent doesn't justify that.

So my guess is the Patriots will first draft Gholston, Rivers, or Albert.

 

[NePatriots]

Man this looks like a cookie cutter draft. What's up with all the group think - Branden Albert drafts? Drafting a guard with a high 1st rounder is hardly one of the Pats most pressing needs for 2008.

Ouch. I haven't been here long enough to go all 1984 yet. I know I want Avril/Godfrey so I had to find a way to get it done. I imagine my 4th-7th look like others just because there are only a few players that seem to fit our system and needs that late.

 

[DaBruinz]

Man this looks like a cookie cutter draft. What's up with all the group think - Branden Albert drafts? Drafting a guard with a high 1st rounder is hardly one of the Pats most pressing needs for 2008.

Just because you don't understand VALUE doesn't mean that the rest of us don't understand value.

If you think replacing an injury prone 31 year old guard isn't a pressing need, then so be it. Some of us think it is.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mo, I used to believe that "we don't draft for need" thing too but hear me out on this one and i'm only going 1st rounders.

Last year, Merriweather - turns out to be a starter at the beginning of the year (see rodney's suspension) and then basically a "5th or 6th man" in the secondary.

06, Maroney - splits time with CD rookie year (very good season by the way) and is now the starter.

05, Mankins - starter from the get-go at left guard.

There's obvious value with each of those picks and where they were made but as it turns out, there was a "need" wasn't there?

I don't think the "need" vs. "value" argument is as clear cut as everyone thinks.

I believe, IMO, if they pick in the top 15, it's best player available.

I still maintain this year, IF, and it's a big if, for some reason, McFadden's there at 7 an no trades are in the works, he's a Pat next year.

Just wanted to toss that out there and see what you think.

I think you are confusing want with need. We didn't need any of those players - we wanted them because they represented upgrades immediately or in the forseeable future. Merriweather was a redo on the Miami SS Bill passed up due to character concerns. He knew Rodney isn't getting any younger, and he likely knew Wilson and Samuel were on their farewell tour, but he expected Rodney back for at least one more season and he never anticipated a suspension... Maroney was something of a sea change - talent and speed as opposed to brute power which would allow us to run a two back tandem featuring very divergent styles. Opening up this offense - something we have done incrementally but consistently save a hiccup named Branch... Mankins was an acknowledgement that the franchise is a HOF QB who deserved more than coached up metaphors he did more for than visa versa (just like Moss and Stallworth and Welker were an acknowledgement that as good as he is it would be criminal to nickle and dime him on weapons given what he can do with chewing gum and string...).

As for McFadden, he represents neither want or need and therefore zero value in the first round let alone at #7. Too much money, to much risk of bust or injury at that position, no functional value on a team with Brady, Moss, Welker, Maroney, Faulk... They dropped 38 on the Giants in December and would have approached that again if the OL had not literally folded under pressure (up the middle moreso than from the edges even) in February. Improving the pass rush almost always pays dividends, but the existing defense cut their NYG points allowed in half over the same time span. Mayock has had McFadden well outside his top ten for months, and a concensus seems to be building that he is more hype than substance. Ditto the corners. Better value in the second and third. LOS is the value in the top ten of most drafts. All the know it all's laughed at Houston two years ago, now they have an all pro DE and New Orleans has a disappointing multi-millionaire RB dating Kim Kardashian (and Tennessee has an athletic project at QB entering his third season...).

 

[patchick]

WE don't draft for need. We draft for value.

I think you are confusing want with need. We didn't need any of those players - we wanted them because they represented upgrades immediately or in the forseeable future. Merriweather was a redo on the Miami SS Bill passed up due to character concerns. He knew Rodney isn't getting any younger, and he likely knew Wilson and Samuel were on their farewell tour....

OK Mo, I'm totally confused now. "Drafting for value, not need" means taking players who represent immediate upgrades at their positions? If drafting Meriweather because Samuel, Wilson and Harrison were all on their way out isn't drafting for need, what is?

If the only thing that counts as "drafting for need" is filling a gaping hole in your starting lineup day 1, then I guess the Patriots by definition can't draft for need because they don't have that kind of hole. But by your own description, they definitely do draft toward projected needs, which is very different from a BPA-type pure value philosophy.

 

[wiggins!]

LOL!

It's easier to debate "need" vs. "want" vs. value in rd 1 next sunday morning!

 

[State]

I think you are really on to something with the Cliff Avril second round pick. The Purdue product--from Florida though--(so Vince Wolfork will like him extra and Matt Light will be happy, too) looks to fit in well in a 3-4 defense. He'd be very good value. Keep going big with the top pick, and build from that in the second round.

http://nfldraft.rivals.com/cviewplayer.asp?sport=1&player=36154&type=scoutingreport#scouting

This kid has the football instinct and athleticism to play out in space against receivers in the flats or help muck up the run. So in our sophisticated defense he'd look to be a useful & versatile OLB, and we could bring Thomas or Vrabel to the inside.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

OK Mo, I'm totally confused now. "Drafting for value, not need" means taking players who represent immediate upgrades at their positions? If drafting Meriweather because Samuel, Wilson and Harrison were all on their way out isn't drafting for need, what is?

If the only thing that counts as "drafting for need" is filling a gaping hole in your starting lineup day 1, then I guess the Patriots by definition can't draft for need because they don't have that kind of hole. But by your own description, they definitely do draft toward projected needs, which is very different from a BPA-type pure value philosophy.

Everyone has projected needs which I characterize as wants to differentiate them from geniune or glaring need - you can take the field without further additions. Bill addresses immediate needs in FA or trade. But it would make no sense whatsoever to draft based on best available talent alone if that talent can't play a position in your system (something Bill repeats frequently) and your system is working so there is no rational desire to alter it. Especially when selecting at the top of the draft where the cost is prohibitive unless you get productivity approaching 8 year pro bowl level talent, as Bill said on All Access last night. I think he was overstating slightly for dramatic effect, but you catch his drift. Not too many of those are RB's let alone in a two back system with guys like Brady, Moss, Welker and Faulk already dividing the offensive pie with Maroney and Morris. Would be a stretch for a pure pass rusher to qualify in this system, and it could be a while before a conversion project DE/LB or college OLB to pro ILB pays those kinds of dividends. And the concensus is forming that the first round corners either have sufficient holes in their game or character concerns that the value there is in the second and third round corners.


If you can trade out of the top 10 it takes a little of the pressure off to hit a grand slam. If you're drafting in the second half of the round you hope for a solo HR. If we stand pat on drafting a $40M rookie with as much guaranteed money as Seymour got in his extension, he better be a huge difference maker out of the gate. To be that he has to be an every down player and not an intriguing talent option or a project in this system.

 

[Seneschal2]

I don't think the "need" vs. "value" argument is as clear cut as everyone thinks.

I believe, IMO, if they pick in the top 15, it's best player available.

Need is NOT separate -- it's incorporated into the value pick. And lots of considerations figure into that value. Will the player contribute immediately or take time to develop? Does that player have starter potential or will he always be a role player? Are there other options later on to fill that position, or do you fill it now because the position lacks depth?

From the consensus top 15 prospects list, there are only a handful of prospects who even fit the Pats system/profile. The Pats will select the highest rated player on their board -- not solely from consensus rankings.

 

[NePatriots]

I think you are really on to something with the Cliff Avril second round pick. The Purdue product--from Florida though--(so Vince Wolfork will like him extra and Matt Light will be happy, too) looks to fit in well in a 3-4 defense. He'd be very good value. Keep going big with the top pick, and build from that in the second round.

http://nfldraft.rivals.com/cviewplayer.asp?sport=1&player=36154&type=scoutingreport#scouting

This kid has the football instinct and athleticism to play out in space against receivers in the flats or help muck up the run. So in our sophisticated defense he'd look to be a useful & versatile OLB, and we could bring Thomas or Vrabel to the inside.

Matt Light will mainly be happy that HE doesn't have to block him on Sundays.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

We trade #7 to Carolina for #13 and #67.

#13 - Branden Albert - OG/OT - Virginia

Okay.

Trade #62 and #67 to Detroit Lions for #45 and #111

#45 - Cliff Avril - OLB/DE - Purdue

Okay, though I think I'd rather have Ray Rice.

#69 - Charles Godfrey - CB - Iowa

I'd take Chevis Jackson first, but Godfrey is okay.

#94 - Chevis Jackson - CB - LSU

Okay.

Round 4a - Jonathan Goff - ILB - Vanderbilt

Okay.

Round 4b - Kellen Davis - TE - Mich. St.

Harumph, the value is right, but I'd be surprised if he lasted this long.

Round 5a - Erik Ainge - QB - Tenn

Yuck, if you truly want a QB take a flyer on Paul Smith here - though I think the Pats are okay at QB and would do better to look at another DB or LB here.

Round 5b - Owen Schmitt - FB - WVU

I like him, but I don't see the value in taking a FB, another OL like Pedro Sosa makes more sense, or another LB prospect.

Round 6 - DRAGO - P - NDSU

He's slow getting the ball off, but Player's not in the fold yet so I agree with the concept.

Round 7 - Mike Klinkenborg - ILB - Iowa

The kid is considered a concussion risk. Take his teammate Humpal or get crazy and take Eric Foster.

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