Ellis, Dorsey, McFadden could be there at 7

[mgteich]

We can only hope that if this happens, that there are those below #7 who want them enough to trade up.

 

[goldenaleus]

Cincy is being pegged for Ellis. Denver is also looking for a DT.

Arizona could be a dark horse trading partner for McFadden. They may wait until round two for a corner.

 

[BelichickFan]

I do agree that I hope it happens but it's high risk too. Most likely we could trade down as top DL and top athletes are commodities teams will generally trade up for. However there's a risk to rooting for that because we don't need any of them and if we aren't able to trade down, more of the need guys will be gone (by definition of these guys not going - six have to be gone) and then we may be stuck taking someone who it's tough to get on the field consistently.

It's a risk I hope comes to fruition though. Also, you could add Ryan to that list.

 

[Kontradiction]

Does anybody think that taking Dorsey could pay off if Seymour has another down year?

 

[miDeuce]

Does anybody think that taking Dorsey could pay off if Seymour has another down year?

I think they would have to consider him for sure if he's there. Players like that are the hardest to find. Seymour and Jarvis are only signed for two more years, I don't think it's out of the question that they could take Dorsey if he's there. However I still think a) Dorsey will be long gone and b)a trade down or OLB is more likely...

 

[BelichickFan]

Does anybody think that taking Dorsey could pay off if Seymour has another down year?

The only thing about Dorsey is at 6-1 1/2 (that's what I saw him listed as) he doesn't really fit the profile of our DE who are in the 6'3"-6'5" range. That is NOT to say Belichick wouldn't feel the player can overcome a little size but it makes me wonder if he's enough of a fit; he's probably the least likely to make it to us anyway, IMO - although Ellis is even shorter.

 

[PonyExpress]

I've warmed up to Ellis. If he's there I'd just as soon the Pats take him.

Dorsey to me is a very overrated player.

 

[Metaphors]

I've warmed up to Ellis. If he's there I'd just as soon the Pats take him.

Dorsey to me is a very overrated player.

Funny you should say that since I've recently gotten to that point as well. I would first look to trade out but if stuck at #7, Ellis is a pretty nice consolation prize.

Here are my likely scenarios for the top 7 players:

JLong - His floor is #5
Dorsey - His floor is #5 unless both he and JLong slide (unlikely)
Ryan - Trade to Carolina for #13 and #67
McFadden - Trade to Detroit for #15 and #45
Gholston - Stick at #7 and take him
CLong - Not a big fan for CLong as a Pat, but will likely pick him at #7
Ellis - Trade to NO for #10 and #78

My favorite is the McFadden trade but except for taking CLong (not a bad player, just my anxiety for his transition to ILB for the Pats) I would be happy with any of these. I would also try to trade down before taking Gholston, but can't see an ideal trading partner.

 

[PonyExpress]

Funny you should say that since I've recently gotten to that point as well. I would first look to trade out but if stuck at #7, Ellis is a pretty nice consolation prize.

Here are my likely scenarios for the top 7 players:

JLong - His floor is #5
Dorsey - His floor is #5 unless both he and JLong slide (unlikely)
Ryan - Trade to Carolina for #13 and #67
McFadden - Trade to Detroit for #15 and #45
Gholston - Stick at #7 and take him
CLong - Not a big fan for CLong as a Pat, but will likely pick him at #7
Ellis - Trade to NO for #10 and #78

My favorite is the McFadden trade but except for taking CLong (not a bad player, just my anxiety for his transition to ILB for the Pats) I would be happy with any of these. I would also try to trade down before taking Gholston, but can't see an ideal trading partner.

I like your thinking. I have one wild card, that is Clady. I really like this guy. To me he looks better than every other T in the draft. He is more natural, he's got the long arms, he's very agile, he's got a nasty streak. I realize he doesn't have the pedigree of J. Long so teams are reluctant to invest millions. He reminds me of J. Brown, maybe not quite as mean and intense, but a bit more agile. Obviously he lacks the pedigree, and there are some reports doubting his "passion for the game". But it looks like he plays with passion to me. He was the anchor of the Boise State O that beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. If he's there and the pats take him, I will be very happy. Brady's health to me is the most important issue for this team every week of every season. Clady would make me rest easier. Having M. Light over there vs Gholston, if the Jets draft him, is a terrifying proposition.

 

[JoePats]

Arizona could be a dark horse trading partner for McFadden. They may wait until round two for a corner.

If they want to move up from 16 to 7 I would hope they don't have a 2nd round pick to use on a corner.

 

[DaBruinz]

Does anybody think that taking Dorsey could pay off if Seymour has another down year?

Seymour spent the last two years playing through injuries because the team needed him to play. Its kind of hard to fault the guy for his 2006 performance when you step back and see te injuries he was dealing with.

Once he was healthy last year, he was very close to being where we would expect him to be. With another healthy off-season, I expect Seymour to be back to his dominating self.

 

[PonyExpress]

Seymour spent the last two years playing through injuries because the team needed him to play. Its kind of hard to fault the guy for his 2006 performance when you step back and see te injuries he was dealing with.

Once he was healthy last year, he was very close to being where we would expect him to be. With another healthy off-season, I expect Seymour to be back to his dominating self.

The fact Seymour has declared himself healthy, and has dedicated himself to the offseason program, is a great sign. Hopefully in 2008 he'll embarrass his critics over the past two seasons, like myself. Nothing would make me happier than to eat that crow.

 

[Kontradiction]

Seymour spent the last two years playing through injuries because the team needed him to play. Its kind of hard to fault the guy for his 2006 performance when you step back and see te injuries he was dealing with.

Once he was healthy last year, he was very close to being where we would expect him to be. With another healthy off-season, I expect Seymour to be back to his dominating self.

I was speaking of his injuries. Not saying that he sucked. I love Seymour and would love to see him injury free. But if he gets hurt again this season, it begs the question of: do we need to upgrade the spot? Personally, I hope he doesn't. But considering the past couple of years, it's not impossible.

 

[Metaphors]

I have one wild card, that is Clady. I really like this guy.

Nothing against Clady, but the Pats have an opportunity this year (#7 overall pick + extra high 3rd) and next (likely high comp picks) to transform the back eight on defense. The offense should be top notch for the next 3 years and the DL is young, effective and signed through 2009 at least.

I agree with your thoughts on Clady being a talent upgrade over Light and Kaczur, but the tackles (including O'Callaghan and Britt) are good enough IMO. The draft value (I know the chart is a bit bogus) of the #7 pick is worth more than the entire collection of picks in a typical Pats draft. Now is the time to start building a defense that will carry the Pats through the Brady/Moss/Seymour/Bruschi/Harrison golden years.

 

[PonyExpress]

Nothing against Clady, but the Pats have an opportunity this year (#7 overall pick + extra high 3rd) and next (likely high comp picks) to transform the back eight on defense. The offense should be top notch for the next 3 years and the DL is young, effective and signed through 2009 at least.

I agree with your thoughts on Clady being a talent upgrade over Light and Kaczur, but the tackles (including O'Callaghan and Britt) are good enough IMO. The draft value (I know the chart is a bit bogus) of the #7 pick is worth more than the entire collection of picks in a typical Pats draft. Now is the time to start building a defense that will carry the Pats through the Brady/Moss/Seymour/Bruschi/Harrison golden years.

I don't disagree. My preference would be for an elite D-player. But if they're all gone before #7, Clady is my fallback. My concern is that Brady has been taking a beating, sacks or no sacks, since '05 and those golden years won't look so good if the golden-boy gets injured.

In that scenario, you could take Clady at #7, and devote your 3 other Day 1 picks to defense. You might come out with Cason Avril and Okam.

 

[miDeuce]

From PFW today:

Pats Zeroing In On Ellis

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL/AFC/AFC+East/New+England/WWHI/default.htm


With one of the most loaded defensive lines in the NFL, it would seem odd for the Patriots to pick up yet another defensive lineman with the seventh pick in the draft. But a source close to the club said the Pats are taking a hard look at USC DT Sedrick Ellis. Ellis has been one of the fastest-rising prospects since the end of the season — a strong, quick player who could conceivably man any of the three down lineman positions in the 3-4 defense. One of the biggest reasons for the interest is the belief that the personnel on the now-dominant line will be shifting in two years. The contracts of both DE Richard Seymour and NT Vince Wilfork are up after the 2009 season, and it’s likely the Pats won’t be able to re-sign both. Seymour, specifically, has reason to doubt his future with the team. Injuries have taken a toll on him, and the Pats will be reluctant to spend top dollar on a guy with injury baggage. Wilfork, perhaps the most talented nose tackle in the game today who’s only now entering the prime of his career, is critical to the Pats' future, but will require a megadeal to keep around. The situation couldn’t be more different than the situation with DLE Ty Warren, whose extension a season ago was considered team-friendly. Ellis is by no means a lock to be around by the seventh pick as Oakland at No. 4 and Kansas City at No. 5 are interested in him, but if he is around and the Pats are unable to trade down, look for him to be the pick.

 

[fgssand]

From PFW today:

Pats Zeroing In On Ellis

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL/AFC/AFC+East/New+England/WWHI/default.htm


With one of the most loaded defensive lines in the NFL, it would seem odd for the Patriots to pick up yet another defensive lineman with the seventh pick in the draft. But a source close to the club said the Pats are taking a hard look at USC DT Sedrick Ellis. Ellis has been one of the fastest-rising prospects since the end of the season — a strong, quick player who could conceivably man any of the three down lineman positions in the 3-4 defense. One of the biggest reasons for the interest is the belief that the personnel on the now-dominant line will be shifting in two years. The contracts of both DE Richard Seymour and NT Vince Wilfork are up after the 2009 season, and it’s likely the Pats won’t be able to re-sign both. Seymour, specifically, has reason to doubt his future with the team. Injuries have taken a toll on him, and the Pats will be reluctant to spend top dollar on a guy with injury baggage. Wilfork, perhaps the most talented nose tackle in the game today who’s only now entering the prime of his career, is critical to the Pats' future, but will require a megadeal to keep around. The situation couldn’t be more different than the situation with DLE Ty Warren, whose extension a season ago was considered team-friendly. Ellis is by no means a lock to be around by the seventh pick as Oakland at No. 4 and Kansas City at No. 5 are interested in him, but if he is around and the Pats are unable to trade down, look for him to be the pick.

I do not understand why PFW feels Wilfork will be harder to keep than Warren? I have seen no indication of any animosity between NE & Vince at all. I see no reason at all not to offer him a deal a year early as they did with RS & TW.

I see no reason not to find a way to keep Seymour as well, assuming a healthy RS returns to the all pro dominating force that he has always been until injuries took their toll.

As for Ellis, if it plays out that Gholston & both Longs are gone and Clady, Ellis & Dorsey are there.....I think the pick may go to Ellis. He may be just too good to let him go by. I do think he is better than Dorsey, I am not sure if he is better as a DL as compared to Clady as an OL. It very well may come down to that evaluation for the Pats.