Mayock on NFLN: *IF* the 'lphins take J. Long

[ctpatsfan77]

According to Mayock, he asked four scouts who they thought Parcells would draft. He says all four of them told him they expected Miami to pick Jake Long.

That's not the interesting part, per se; what was interesting is that he says, in that case, he sees STL taking Dorsey, and ATL taking Ryan. . . . which leaves a very good chance that at #5 and #6 both C. Long and Gholston will be available.

So, in that case, what would you do?

 

[NePatriots]

If Gholston and Long are available at #5 I do nothing, as the Chiefs won't take either. Herm is not a BPA disciple and would probably take Clady, Otah, or Williams. Unless they trade the pick, we'd get one of them.

 

[nickw308810]

What about the Raiders?

 

[BelichickFan]

What about the Raiders?

I assume he figures they'd taken McFadden (Al loves speed) but I think they would take Howie's son; and wouldn't mind Gholston for themselves either.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Raiders take Howie Long's son if available. That would be a fantastic pick for the Raiders organization. But if the Raiders took McFadden, I would stay put if I were the Pats. In fact, I would trade down, not up. Because the Pats basically threw away their '07 draft, they need all the picks they can gather for this years draft. If the Pats can trade down twice they can pick up possibly two thirds or a 3rd and a 4th at worst. Then they can take those picks and move up higher in the second round to get a CB/LB or the best available player. As much as I liked Gholston a few months ago, I'm starting to lean towards trading down and getting Quentin Groves because he has had experience in a 3-4. In addition, Groves says he is willing to play inside or outside, which we know the Pats really like.

Regarding the Jets, if they had to chose between McFadden and Gholston, they would take McFadden. The despretely need a playmaker on offense.

 

[The Great Fork]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Raiders take Howie Long's son if available. That would be a fantastic pick for the Raiders organization. But if the Raiders took McFadden, I would stay put if I were the Pats. In fact, I would trade down, not up. Because the Pats basically threw away their '07 draft, they need all the picks they can gather for this years draft. If the Pats can trade down twice they can pick up possibly two thirds or a 3rd and a 4th at worst. Then they can take those picks and move up higher in the second round to get a CB/LB or the best available player. As much as I liked Gholston a few months ago, I'm starting to lean towards trading down and getting Quentin Groves because he has had experience in a 3-4. In addition, Groves says he is willing to play inside or outside, which we know the Pats really like.

Regarding the Jets, if they had to chose between McFadden and Gholston, they would take McFadden. The despretely need a playmaker on offense.

Threw away the 07 draft? How do you figure? We got Brandon Meriweather, who a lot of people like and a lot of people think has a bright future, and we traded a round 4 pick for Randy Moss, who only caught an NFL record number of TDs. I thought that was a good draft for what we got.

 

[Metaphors]

Threw away the 07 draft? How do you figure? We got Brandon Meriweather, who a lot of people like and a lot of people think has a bright future, and we traded a round 4 pick for Randy Moss, who only caught an NFL record number of TDs. I thought that was a good draft for what we got.

You don't want to do down this road. It is a dark and confusing place with no end in sight. Reason and logic are the first to be sacrificed. The pain grows until you beg for death to end it...but it refuses to come.

<fwiw...just be happy with the knowledge and good sense you possess>

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Alright, let me rephrase what I said about throwing away the draft. Aside from Moss, Welker and Merriweather, the Pats didn't seem to high on the '07 draft. And looking at it know, it seems as the though the Pats made the right decision and didn't miss out on any on anyone special. Moss was a no brainer for a 4th round pick. Some people thought a 2nd round pick might have been too much for Wes Welker; no one would disagree with that decision now.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Well, if that does happen what Mayock inferred was that KC is going to deal their pick....and with every team behind us drooling over C.Long/Gholston it would behoove us to be the trade up guys if we covet them. I can EASILY see Baltimore jumping up to 5 to get him! And if they offer their 2 we cant beat that....Cincy NEEDS 3 LBs, NO, even Carolina would be crazy not to jump up there. If we dont tradeup that will be one less team for US to trade backwards with....

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I guess the question comes down to just how many of the Top 10ish players the Pats have their eyes on, and how closely together they're ranked.

If three (or more) guys the Pats want are still there at #5, they can just sit and wait and take whoever's left. If there's only one or two available, then they have to decide if they want to pull the trigger.

Presumably, though, they'll have already figured out which players are worth drafting there (e.g., they may say that Gholston is worth #5*, Chris Long #4*, etc.). [*Numbers chosen for illustrative purposes only]

 

[DaBruinz]

Well, if that does happen what Mayock inferred was that KC is going to deal their pick....and with every team behind us drooling over C.Long/Gholston it would behoove us to be the trade up guys if we covet them. I can EASILY see Baltimore jumping up to 5 to get him! And if they offer their 2 we cant beat that....Cincy NEEDS 3 LBs, NO, even Carolina would be crazy not to jump up there. If we dont tradeup that will be one less team for US to trade backwards with....

For a person who is so high on the draft value chart, you really don't make much sense by saying that Cincy, NO, and Carolina would jump up there. You previous logic actually works against that possibility since all 3 have numerous needs and don't have the picks to trade.

Cincy brought back Dhani Jones and David Pollack was given Medical clearance to play. They also signed Daryl Blackstock.

So, which is it going to be? Are you going to follow your most adored Draft Value Chart or are you being sensible and realizing that the chart is out-dated.

 

[Metaphors]

For a person who is so high on the draft value chart, you really don't make much sense by saying that Cincy, NO, and Carolina would jump up there. You previous logic actually works against that possibility since all 3 have numerous needs and don't have the picks to trade.

NO would likely have to give up their 3rd round pick to jump from #10 to #7 by the chart. Since NO has a strong need for a DT and the DT class after Ellis is weak, I believe NO would be fairly motivated to jump ahead of Cincy if Ellis is on the board at #7.

Knowing this is a possibility, Cincy would be motivated to get to #7 first.

Carolina is a little different in that it would cost more to move to #7 (maybe their 2nd round pick?) and they may be more content to sit and pick up an OT that falls to them.

I think that the value chart is still a good tool when evaluating trades. The difference is that you need to additionally consider contract implications as part of the trade. Since these implications would vary by draft class, you really can't quantify them in the chart.

 

[p8ryts]

Threw away the 07 draft? How do you figure? We got Brandon Meriweather, who a lot of people like and a lot of people think has a bright future, and we traded a round 4 pick for Randy Moss, who only caught an NFL record number of TDs. I thought that was a good draft for what we got.

Yes, its not like there are many positions up for grab each year and Bill likes to build from the practice squad. 07 draft was fine, not too many years we draft Moss and Welker.

 

[jeffbiologist]

For a person who is so high on the draft value chart, you really don't make much sense by saying that Cincy, NO, and Carolina would jump up there. You previous logic actually works against that possibility since all 3 have numerous needs and don't have the picks to trade.

Cincy brought back Dhani Jones and David Pollack was given Medical clearance to play. They also signed Daryl Blackstock.

So, which is it going to be? Are you going to follow your most adored Draft Value Chart or are you being sensible and realizing that the chart is out-dated.

Well, is not MY value chart, its the one most people on most boards referrence. In a way its out of date, but that doesnt make it irrelevant. Now NO and Cin are many players away from being competitive, but Baltimore is only 1 season removed from 13-3. I think our competitors for any LBs in the first round will be the Jets and Baltimore. KC is definately going to trade their pick in this scenario, we would be foolish to lose out on a guy IF we do indeed want him. But then again it could be a bluff, we might just drive the price up,lol.

 

[Kontradiction]

There is one thing and one thing only that all of these so called "scouts" and "draft forecasters" have in common: none of them know how the draft is going to pan out. Miami has a lot of needs in the draft and can go a lot of different directions. That said, I think Jake Long is the most logical choice out of all of them. It doesn't matter who Miami has at QB. If he is on his back, he will never be able to make throws. And that offensive line of the 'Fins isn't exactly stout.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

There is one thing and one thing only that all of these so called "scouts" and "draft forecasters" have in common: none of them know how the draft is going to pan out. Miami has a lot of needs in the draft and can go a lot of different directions. That said, I think Jake Long is the most logical choice out of all of them. It doesn't matter who Miami has at QB. If he is on his back, he will never be able to make throws. And that offensive line of the 'Fins isn't exactly stout.

Hence, my "*IF*".

In any case, though, Mayock, in his video mock on NFL.com, has the 'lphins going with Chris Long, and then has the Pats taking Brandon Albert. :bricks:

 

[Kontradiction]

Hence, my "*IF*".

In any case, though, Mayock, in his video mock on NFL.com, has the 'lphins going with Chris Long, and then has the Pats taking Brandon Albert. :bricks:

Oh I know. It wasn't a slam on you at all. Just a slam on people like Kiper and Mayock (although I prefer the former over the latter).