What if we end up with Chris Long?

[ALP]

our scouts really, really, really need to do an incredible job this year
will that be a good thing or no?
i recently heard on nfl.com that miami is now said to be showing immense interest for jake long at the number 1 spot...

so lets make a sample mock (ITS KINDA LONG, SO BEAR WITH ME FOR A SEC)

1. miami - jake long LT
2. st luis - Glenn dorsey DT (showed a lot of great things at workouts, and is said to be climbing back up to the top)
3. atlanta - matt ryan QB - with dorsey gone, the falcons look to put the vick era behind them

and now things get interesting...

at 4 its the raiders, and im 100% positive if the top 3 go taht way, the raiders will take either mcfadden or gholston
4 raiders - mcfadden

then come the chiefs, who can select chris long, or gholston at this spot....yet what they want most is O-line help...and they know it, and they can get it later...

so why dont the pats give the chiefs a little call, and package number 7 and a SEVENTH ROUND PICK, and for number 5!!! u are saying that is a crazy deal? i say that it is most surely not, b/c now the chiefs can still get the O-line guy they want at 7, since the jets will take whoever is left after we choose between chris long and gholston, but the chiefs will have a MUCH smaller salary to pay whoever they pick

now in this scenario had the raiders selected gholston, we do the same thing, and trade 5 to the boys for their first 2 rounders and carpenter?

follow me?

 

[BelichickFan]

ProFW has us getting Long, interestingly :

Not sure I buy into The Jest taking Stewart, but . . .

"1. Miami Dolphins
OT Jake Long, Michigan

It doesn’t matter who the quarterback is if he doesn’t have time to throw. With Long protecting the blind side, QB Josh McCown may not have to run for his life for the first time in his career. The time-tested, proven way to build a football team is in the trenches, and Bill Parcells knows that as well as anyone.

2. St. Louis Rams
DT Glenn Dorsey, LSU

The Rams’ track record of drafting defensive tackles in the first round has been very suspect. However, the team’s brain trust is wise enough not to let past mistakes cloud its judgment of a legitimate talent with great passion.

3. Atlanta Falcons
QB Matt Ryan, Boston College

If the Falcons are to put the past behind them, nothing could do it better than a new face of the franchise at the most important position. Ryan has all the tools to become great.

4. Oakland Raiders
DE Vernon Gholston*, Ohio State

The Raiders’ ground game was not the problem last year, when they ranked sixth in the league in rushing. With Tyler Brayton (free agency) and Warren Sapp (retirement) gone, Tommy Kelly returning from a serious injury and a disgruntled Derrick Burgess having outplayed his contract, Gholston will provide the most help.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
RB Darren McFadden*, Arkansas

The Chiefs desperately want to trade down, but Carl Peterson has never shied away from the strategy of taking the best player overall. With the looming pressure to win immediately and Larry Johnson coming off injury, he may have to restrain himself from filling bigger needs at tackle and cornerback if forced to stay at the No. 5 slot.

6. New York Jets
RB Jonathan Stewart*, Oregon

Signing Calvin Pace filled a void at the OLB position. The Jets signed Alan Faneca and Damien Woody to establish a power-running game. All the offense lacks is a smashmouth back. After having surgery on his toe, Stewart is expected to be fully ready for training camp and could bring the blend of power and speed that’s missing from the Jets’ offense.

7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco)
OLB-DE Chris Long, Virginia

The Patriots have not drafted a linebacker in the first round since Bill Belichick came to New England, but Long’s versatility will be too attractive to pass up. A strategist like Belichick could utilize him in many ways."

 

[NePatriots]

If we get Long @ 5 or @ 7 I will be doing a happy dance... I think we might have to give up more like a 4th rounder or better to get in front of the Jets though. Long is one of two players that i think will be a pro-bowler within his first two years, and he is the only player that I would trade up for.

 

[lusdawg]

our scouts really, really, really need to do an incredible job this year
will that be a good thing or no?
i recently heard on nfl.com that miami is now said to be showing immense interest for jake long at the number 1 spot...

so lets make a sample mock (ITS KINDA LONG, SO BEAR WITH ME FOR A SEC)

1. miami - jake long LT
2. st luis - Glenn dorsey DT (showed a lot of great things at workouts, and is said to be climbing back up to the top)
3. atlanta - matt ryan QB - with dorsey gone, the falcons look to put the vick era behind them

and now things get interesting...

at 4 its the raiders, and im 100% positive if the top 3 go taht way, the raiders will take either mcfadden or gholston
4 raiders - mcfadden

then come the chiefs, who can select chris long, or gholston at this spot....yet what they want most is O-line help...and they know it, and they can get it later...

so why dont the pats give the chiefs a little call, and package number 7 and a SEVENTH ROUND PICK, and for number 5!!! u are saying that is a crazy deal? i say that it is most surely not, b/c now the chiefs can still get the O-line guy they want at 7, since the jets will take whoever is left after we choose between chris long and gholston, but the chiefs will have a MUCH smaller salary to pay whoever they pick

now in this scenario had the raiders selected gholston, we do the same thing, and trade 5 to the boys for their first 2 rounders and carpenter?

follow me?

I think it would probably take a 3rd or 4th round pick, in addition to the 7th overall, to trade up with the Chiefs. But, this would probably be worth it for C. Long. Just my $0.02.

Edit: Looks like we were typing at the same time.

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

5. Kansas City Chiefs
RB Darren McFadden*, Arkansas
[/I]

That mock draft lost all credibility with me with that selection. There is absolutely no way that this pick happens.

 

[fgssand]

Love all the scenario's, but I just don't see him dropping below #6 and the Jets (if he got that far).

I am in favor of trade - IF - NE felt the value was there to go and get the player.

However, keep in mind one thing BB said in his recent interview at the Owners meetings...he said there is a bit of a drop from #6 to #7 and they have the money allocated to business there.

So, I think we stay at #7 and I do not think he slides that far - sure wish that he did.

 

[BelichickFan]

That mock draft lost all credibility with me with that selection. There is absolutely no way that this pick happens.

It would be a weird pick but KC took LJ when Priest was in his prime and LJ and McFadden could be used together. I certainly don't expect this - nor do I expect The Jest to take Stewart - but Nawrocki isn't an idiot and he does talk to people. I agree it's a strange mock but he has been around long enough to be taken seriously.

 

[BelichickFan]

Also in PFW :

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL/AFC/AFC+West/Kansas+City/WWHI/2008/wwhi040408.htm

"It’s no secret that the Chiefs need a stellar draft class to have a fighter’s chance of making a playoff run in 2008. Coach Herm Edwards’ recent assertion that he hopes between 50-75 percent of his draftees earn starting roles only highlights that need. So, in a somewhat perverse line of logic, expect the Chiefs to treat quantity over quality in the draft. Michigan OT Jake Long is believed to be the top target on the Chiefs’ board, but assuming he’s gone, Kansas City will work the phones to try to move down. But not too far. “I think they’ll want to go about 5-to-7 spots down,” a source close to the team told PFW. “That way, they still should be able to take (Boise State OT) Ryan Clady or (Pittsburgh OT) Jeff Otah to help their line.” Also, don’t expect any veterans to come the Chiefs’ way via trade for draft picks. K.C. is firmly committed to making long-term progress, and wants to add extra picks rather than aging veterans."

 

[BradyManny]

Also in PFW :

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFL/AFC/AFC+West/Kansas+City/WWHI/2008/wwhi040408.htm

"It’s no secret that the Chiefs need a stellar draft class to have a fighter’s chance of making a playoff run in 2008. Coach Herm Edwards’ recent assertion that he hopes between 50-75 percent of his draftees earn starting roles only highlights that need. So, in a somewhat perverse line of logic, expect the Chiefs to treat quantity over quality in the draft. Michigan OT Jake Long is believed to be the top target on the Chiefs’ board, but assuming he’s gone, Kansas City will work the phones to try to move down. But not too far. “I think they’ll want to go about 5-to-7 spots down,” a source close to the team told PFW. “That way, they still should be able to take (Boise State OT) Ryan Clady or (Pittsburgh OT) Jeff Otah to help their line.” Also, don’t expect any veterans to come the Chiefs’ way via trade for draft picks. K.C. is firmly committed to making long-term progress, and wants to add extra picks rather than aging veterans."

I know what the draft value chart would tell us, but what would it really take to move up to #5?

 

[PonyExpress]

As far as the Jets are concerned:

Mumbles was extended only through 2009. A bad season and he could be gone. IMO he will not approach this draft the same way he approached the DBrick draft. His preference will be for a player who can impact as quickly as possible. Otherwise he could be drafting for the next coach.

That is why rb would make sense, because rbs historically have the quickest impact.

McFadden's character issues would scare away a decision maker as conservative as Mangini- unless he's desperate (as in the case of Jenkins, Pace, Woody). So Stewart may be in play.

One exception to this way of thinking is Matt Ryan, whom I believe Tan/Mangini would select if available. The development of a franchise QB would be a ready-made excuse to stick around for a few more years, no matter the outcome of the 08 season.

OTOH C. Long, while supremely gifted, will be making an unusual position change from 3-4 DL to 3-4 OLB, and the Jets may not feel he can have the immediate impact they are looking for. He does not have the elite burst of a pure pass rusher, which makes his potential impact less obvious for 4-3 teams.

The same goes for Gholston, whose inconsistent motor has raised some eyebrows. I am a fan of Gholston, but watching his performance vs Illinois and even at times LSU, he does not go full bore full time like most elite NFL players. He tends to cut back before the whistle blows, like he is pacing himself on a jog, and does not energize his teammates from a leadership standpoint. You can observe this clearly on the short Doucet TD, in which Gholston stopped his pursuit, assuming Doucet would go down- but Doucet broke the DB tackles and went in for the TD. Gholston could have stopped the play, but he gave up on it. A 3-4 team such as the Jets may hesitate to pay a junior eligible 40 million with that concern who will be making a position change and may not impact immediately.

The Pats management team is free of the "immediate impact" mentality, unlike most of the other teams in the top 5, all of whom got there by bad decision making. BB can afford to take the long view, just as Atlanta can, with a fresh power structure in place.

That is why the likelihood of Gholston, Long or both being available to the Pats is not as farfetched as some may believe.

 

[BelichickFan]

I know what the draft value chart would tell us, but what would it really take to move up to #5?

Not looking at the charts, I would expect the Raiders' #3 would do it unless the Chiefs have other offers.

 

[drew4008]

I would be ecstatic. But I'm not counting on it at all... the guy is a top 2 pick.

 

[PonyExpress]

Also, Adam Schein has recently been pimping Stewart, and he is a Jet rumpswab on SNY in NY.

 

[ALP]

thats what im trying to say, i think the Pats can get to number 5 SIMPLY b/c the chiefs can take their guy at 7, and pay him quite a bit less....

it would be wise for the chiefs to do this even if they get NOTHING else from the pats in the trade...

why would u want to pay the same guy more, when u have a 95% chance of getting him later and paying him for less?

 

[BionicPatriot]

I think they wil indeed trade up to #5. I don't see Long AND Gholston dropping to the Pats. I don't see why the Jets would improve a running attack when you have Thomas Jones. They still need defense, and a stud OLB only makes sense. The key here is to move up and hopefully get whoever drops. No way Mangini passes up on that oppurtunity. I think the Dolphins would be better off with Jake Long, because they don't even have an OL.

We'll see. I have never ever ever ever been this excited for draft day. Never before in my fan hood have I been able to analyze and realisticly expect an elite prospect

 

[Kontradiction]

I'll say it right now...

I don't care what mock you read or what "analyst" tells you this, but Chris Long is NOT dropping to us. And I'm pretty sure that he won't drop to the #5pick either.

 

[ALP]

I'll say it right now...

I don't care what mock you read or what "analyst" tells you this, but Chris Long is NOT dropping to us. And I'm pretty sure that he won't drop to the #5pick either.

if he did drop to 5 though, would u be interested?

 

[patchick]

I know what the draft value chart would tell us, but what would it really take to move up to #5?

In the highest reaches of the draft, value is wildly unpredictable. Suppose KC is fortunate enough to be shopping #5 after a top 4 like this:

1. Gholston
2. Dorsey
3. J. Long
4. McFadden

With C. Long, Ryan and Ellis all sitting at #5, a ton of teams could be in the bidding. KC could easily extract a pick from the Jets to secure Long, then reopen bidding for Ryan at #6.

i think the Pats can get to number 5 SIMPLY b/c the chiefs can take their guy at 7, and pay him quite a bit less....

See bolded above.

 

[Kontradiction]

if he did drop to 5 though, would u be interested?

Oh, most definitely! Howie Long is one of my favorite players of all time and his kid is a freak. Hopefully he's as nasty and punishing as his dad was if he falls to us (which I still don't think he will, but one can wonder).

 

[BelichickFan]

I'll say it right now...

I don't care what mock you read or what "analyst" tells you this, but Chris Long is NOT dropping to us. And I'm pretty sure that he won't drop to the #5pick either.

We all agree he probably won't but anyone who's watched drafts before knows that you never say never. Long doesn't fit the profile of someone who drops but with a very equal group of players in the top 6-7 there is absolutely no way we can say he won't drop.