Trading UP - Not DOWN

[PATSNUTme]

Last night I was looking over some mocks and some material in draft guides.

All the trade talk has been about the Patriots trying to trade down out of #7. But let me present the following possible senario:

1.Miami takes Jake Long
2.St. Louis takes Dorsey
3. Atlanta take Ryan.

So now that leaves both C. Long and Gholston on the board. If the Patriots trade up to #5 they will get one of them. If the Patriots trade to #4 they will have their choice between them.

Trading to #5 will cost the Patriots the #7 and #62. We could get the 4th rounder of KC if we give them our 6th rounder.

The same cost would apply to #4 only we would get the 5th rounder instead of the 4th rounder.

Would it be worth it?

 

[PonyExpress]

They may not have to trade up.

It could go

Mia: J. Long
StL: Dorsey
Atl: Ryan
Oak: McFadden
KC: Ellis

then the Pats will get one of either Gholston or C. Long. The only player I would consider trading up to #5 for is C. Long. Otherwise I'd just as soon trade down.

 

[PATSNUTme]

They may not have to trade up.

It could go

Mia: J. Long
StL: Dorsey
Atl: Ryan
Oak: McFadden
KC: Ellis

then the Pats will get one of either Gholston or C. Long. The only player I would consider trading up to #5 for is C. Long. Otherwise I'd just as soon trade down.

It could work that way but after #3 picks and it is clear that one of these will be there at #5, do you risk the Jets taking him?

 

[RussFrancis]

Wow. Very interesting question. Chris Long has an unbelievable motor and every possible characteristic you'd want in a football player. Im not sure he's even the perfect fit as OLB for our system, but Id lean toward saying move up to that 4 spot if he falls that far. I think Gholston is tremendous as well. I just love the energy and intensity of Long better than any other player Ive seen in a while. He did alot at a school like Virginina. Imagine how much he can do surrounded by some actual talent?

 

[JoeSixPat]

Well that's pretty much the idea I made in the thread making the case for trading both up and down

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=80357

Up in that we can leapfrong the Jets and grab Gholston

And back in that if McFadden is available we've got an interested partner in Dallas who just so happens to have two first round picks that generally equal the trade value of #7 when one factors in the increased cost of the rookie contract.

It all comes down to how the draft shakes out - and whether Belichick believes Gholston is the read deal, as some see him actually slipping in the draft.

But assuming Gholston is viewed to be the LB with the skills and smarts for our system? Yes - I would quickly trade up. Aside from the contract $ it would cost only 200 trade value points to go from #7 to #5 - that is a mid 3rd round draft pick.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Well that's pretty much the idea I made in the thread making the case for trading both up and down

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=80357

Up in that we can leapfrong the Jets and grab Gholston

And back in that if McFadden is available we've got an interested partner in Dallas who just so happens to have two first round picks that generally equal the trade value of #7 when one factors in the increased cost of the rookie contract.

It all comes down to how the draft shakes out - and whether Belichick believes Gholston is the read deal, as some see him actually slipping in the draft.

But assuming Gholston is viewed to be the LB with the skills and smarts for our system? Yes - I would quickly trade up. Aside from the contract $ it would cost only 200 trade value points to go from #7 to #5 - that is a mid 3rd round draft pick.

That was a good post and I'm sorry that I didn't see it. Thanks for reposting it.

 

[Metaphors]

Aside from the contract $ it would cost only 200 trade value points to go from #7 to #5 - that is a mid 3rd round draft pick.

Aside from the landing, falling from 50,000 feet without a parachute is a pretty sweet ride.

Seriously, the cap hit at the top of the draft is scary. I'm worried about what #7 is going to cost. I'd feel much better at #10 or below. The cap numbers are dramatically different once you get to the 9/10 range.

If you can get a transcendent player, you don't worry so much about the cap hit. I don't see CLong as that type of player and would need some convincing that Gholston could consistently reach that level.

So count me in for:

• Trading down to #10 (NO would bite if Ellis is available), getting NO's 3rd round pick
• Selecting Harvey/Groves/McKelvin/DRC/etc. at #10
• Packaging a 3rd to trade up in the 2nd round to get Cason
• Selecting Goff with the other early 3rd
• Dancing happily

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I'm starting to see more mock drafts and chatter on the radio that suggests Miami is moving toward J Long as opposed to C Long.

I do not know what is driving this shift, however I think Atlanta and St. Louis need to re-examine Dorsey and Ellis. Both had decent pro days and both are need areas for those teams.

Then if Oakland does take McFadden and KC takes either Ryan or Clady, we could be in fantastic positon.

IF Miami takes C Long and J Long slides to #5, it would be worth a 3rd rounder to trade up and take J Long and stick him at ROT for the next decade. (Slide Kazcur over to ROG if Neal can't go by opening day.)

 

[BradyManny]

IF Miami takes C Long and J Long slides to #5, it would be worth a 3rd rounder to trade up and take J Long and stick him at ROT for the next decade. (Slide Kazcur over to ROG if Neal can't go by opening day.)

That's not a bad plan, but what I keep coming back to is value. Wouldn't there be more value in trading down and grabbing Chris Williams and have him be your starting right or left tackle for years to come. As another poster eloquently pointed out in another thread - and forgive me to whichever one of you did, I've forgotten - the typical delineation between left and right tackle does not really exist on the Pats. Their right tackle needs to be as adept at dealing with edge rushers as the left, as a) our TE lines up on the leftside quite often b) we pass the ball so damn much.

So, I'd rather have Williams in a trade down than Jake Long in a trade up.

And you might find me applying that logic for Groves v. Gholston as well. I change my mind daily, and am really anxious for draft day just to see how all these plots play out. It should be pretty interesting to say the least.

 

[drew4008]

Chris Long will be gone before pick three if you ask me.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

That's not a bad plan, but what I keep coming back to is value. Wouldn't there be more value in trading down and grabbing Chris Williams and have him be your starting right or left tackle for years to come. As another poster eloquently pointed out in another thread - and forgive me to whichever one of you did, I've forgotten - the typical delineation between left and right tackle does not really exist on the Pats. Their right tackle needs to be as adept at dealing with edge rushers as the left, as a) our TE lines up on the leftside quite often b) we pass the ball so damn much.

So, I'd rather have Williams in a trade down than Jake Long in a trade up.

And you might find me applying that logic for Groves v. Gholston as well. I change my mind daily, and am really anxious for draft day just to see how all these plots play out. It should be pretty interesting to say the least.

If the Pats could find a suitable partner, I would not be against moving down, but I can't think of any teams craving anybody at #7 that is worth the expense of moving up and signing the rookie.

I only see two rookies that could start for the Pats next season, J Long at ROT and MCFadden at RB.

As for Williams, I watched him a lot in the SEC last season and even though scouts ding him for lacking it, I saw a guy that got a little nastier and started to drive block a little better. I would not mind seeing him at ROT for the next decade, however......
J Long is the premier drive blocking OT in this draft and on third and 1, his man is going to be moved off the LOS. J Long may be half a notch less a pass protector as Williams, but he is two notches better than Williams as a drive blocker, despite Williams improvement last season.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If the Pats could find a suitable partner, I would not be against moving down, but I can't think of any teams craving anybody at #7 that is worth the expense of moving up and signing the rookie.

Again, though, the question is not one of absolute value, it's a question of relative value. If you don't believe me, check out some of the c**p that gets sold on eBay.

To be serious, though, I can't currently see anyone willing to fork over a 2008 #1 and a 2009 #1 for anyone at #7. But I can certainly see some of the next 5-6 teams trying to move up a few slots ("Can we run the risk that team X won't draft player Y?").

 

[signbabybrady]

Last night I was looking over some mocks and some material in draft guides.

All the trade talk has been about the Patriots trying to trade down out of #7. But let me present the following possible senario:

1.Miami takes Jake Long
2.St. Louis takes Dorsey
3. Atlanta take Ryan.

So now that leaves both C. Long and Gholston on the board. If the Patriots trade up to #5 they will get one of them. If the Patriots trade to #4 they will have their choice between them.

Trading to #5 will cost the Patriots the #7 and #62. We could get the 4th rounder of KC if we give them our 6th rounder.

The same cost would apply to #4 only we would get the 5th rounder instead of the 4th rounder.

Would it be worth it?

I mentioned this somewhere the other day. This would be a great scenario and I can't imagine BB not trying to move up and get his choice between those two. :rocker:

I don't think we would be so lucky for this to unfold as we want and thus I think we stay at 7 and take the best guy that makes it. Could be Gohlston, McFadden, Jake Long, or we might reach a bit for Rivers who I heard a real great pro day.

 

[NePatriots]

Chris Long will be gone before pick three if you ask me.

I agree, I can't see him lasting past #2 in any scenario.

 

[BRiZ]

KC is a prime canidate to trade up with as long as Jake Long is taken early and is off the board, all it would take is our high 3rd and we could leapfrog Manguini. Id trade up for Chris Long or McFadden only, take them away from the Jets.

 

[b72s]

May be a moot point

I belive Belicheck said in recent press conference that there is a salary drop off between 6 and 7 so that means they are not willing to fork out dough for unproven commodities unless they are in love. if you is the seymour pick at 6 years ago I do not see anyone of his caliber willing to trade up for.......

 

[spacecrime]

It could work that way but after #3 picks and it is clear that one of these will be there at #5, do you risk the Jets taking him?

Mangini will snap up Chris Long in a heartbeat. If he is available at #4, look for the Jets to make a move to #4 spot to prevent the Pats from jumping ahead of him to #5.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: May be a moot point

I belive Belicheck said in recent press conference that there is a salary drop off between 6 and 7 so that means they are not willing to fork out dough for unproven commodities unless they are in love. if you is the seymour pick at 6 years ago I do not see anyone of his caliber willing to trade up for.......

There is a salary drop off from every spot to the one below it. #7 won't be that far behind #6 (or ahead of #8)

 

[PATSNUTme]

I just heard that both Kiper and McShay think that Miami will take Jake long. You can also add Pro Football Weekly's latest mock draft. Atlanta would probably take Mat Ryan. Who knows what Oakland will do.

So, the likelihood of C. Long and/or Gholston being around at #4 or #5 is getting more real, if they are right.

 

[mgteich]

Albert would start for us at RG.

If the Pats could find a suitable partner, I would not be against moving down, but I can't think of any teams craving anybody at #7 that is worth the expense of moving up and signing the rookie.

I only see two rookies that could start for the Pats next season, J Long at ROT and MCFadden at RB.

As for Williams, I watched him a lot in the SEC last season and even though scouts ding him for lacking it, I saw a guy that got a little nastier and started to drive block a little better. I would not mind seeing him at ROT for the next decade, however......
J Long is the premier drive blocking OT in this draft and on third and 1, his man is going to be moved off the LOS. J Long may be half a notch less a pass protector as Williams, but he is two notches better than Williams as a drive blocker, despite Williams improvement last season.