The Fourth Annual Uncle Heatster Seven Round Mock

[dryheat44]

The entire draft is here if you're into self-abuse: http://www.199overall.com/?q=node/33

Patriots picks:

Patriots trade #7 and #62 to Detroit for #15 and #45

15. Quentin Groves OLB Auburn
45. Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
69. Eddie Royal WR/KR/PR Virginia Tech
94. Eric Young OL Tennessee
129. Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
164. Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
197. Derrick Doggett SS Oregon St
238. Jeremy Leman ILB Illinois

 

[bakes781]

Good stuff as always! I think you may have went a little trade happy, but I myself am guilty of that in past mocks. lol I think Pats fans would definitely be pleased with this outcome.

 

[Irish Hooligan]

This draft would have me dancing in the streets, topless, in my own neighborhood. :singing:

 

[zydecochris]

I'm not familiar enough with the players to comment too much beyond the second round, but I thought this was by far the most reasonable of any of the mock drafts I have seen for the first two rounds. Plus, your explanations in the first round seemed spot-on and obviously very well thought out, and I liked the fact that you seem to implicitly carefully consider "putting yourself in their shoes" when it comes to who (GM/Coach) is doing the drafting. I'm amazed at how many so-called professional mock drafts (just look at the "Hail to the Redskins" Mock Database to see some terrible ones) make obviously nonsensical picks with little regard to factors such as job security of the GM and Coach, offensive and defensive philosophies, etc.

The trade twist with the Jets and Patriots was especially interesting. I could easily see the Patriot/Detroit trade if McFadden is still there.

I guess I had two questions for you. The first is: do you really think that the Jets would pass on McFadden? I agree that the trade you propose for the Jets and picking Ellis would be the best move for them. However, McFadden seems like the type of "quick impact" pick that somebody who is worried about just surviving the year (Mangini) would make.

My second question is: do you really think that Stewart will drop all the way to 52 to Tampa because of the surgery? I thought I had read that it wasn't really that big of a deal, and Stewart seems like the type of player that would be picked earlier.

Anyway, great job on the Mock, by far the most reasonable one that I have seen.

 

[BradyManny]

The entire draft is here if you're into self-abuse: http://www.199overall.com/?q=node/33

Patriots picks:

Patriots trade #7 and #62 to Detroit for #15 and #45

15. Quentin Groves OLB Auburn
45. Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
69. Eddie Royal WR/KR/PR Virginia Tech
94. Eric Young OL Tennessee
129. Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
164. Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
197. Derrick Doggett SS Oregon St
238. Jeremy Leman ILB Illinois

Love it. As usual, your mocks kick ass. Let's hope something to this effect happens.

 

[dryheat44]

I guess I had two questions for you. The first is: do you really think that the Jets would pass on McFadden? I agree that the trade you propose for the Jets and picking Ellis would be the best move for them. However, McFadden seems like the type of "quick impact" pick that somebody who is worried about just surviving the year (Mangini) would make.

My second question is: do you really think that Stewart will drop all the way to 52 to Tampa because of the surgery? I thought I had read that it wasn't really that big of a deal, and Stewart seems like the type of player that would be picked earlier.

.

1. Yes. In fact, the Jets owner came out publicly in support of his GM and HC this week, stating that they're not going anywhere regardless of how this season turns out. Now, that's obviously a non-binding statement, but I think we can take it at face value. Here's a secret that smart GMs (which I consider the Jets brain trust to be) know: Running back is the most fungible position on the field. Success at the position depends so much on line play and the threat of a passing game, that similar running backs are pretty much exchangeable, and there's no need to draft one in a premium position. Once in a while a Barry Sanders or LaDainian Tomlinson comes along as an exception, but McFadden IMO is not in that class. People want to compare McFadden to Peterson, but they're not similar backs, and Peterson stepped into a great situation. For every Adrian Peterson, we can find three Blair Thomases. The Jets need too much defensive help to draft a running back #7. Getting one of those rare body-type players, like Sedric Ellis, is a great pick for them.

2. I really don't know. It seems that toe surgery is a pretty serious one for a running back, as plenty of NFLers have taken a long time to recover. With this year's RB depth, I could see Stewart dropping. I could also see him going in the top 20.

 

[sebman2112]

You don't think they would take further advantage of the depth at CB?
They also wouldn't take any advantage of the depth at RB?

Why select both Keglar and Leman?

Eddie Royal's interesting, but shouldn't he be available later in the round, or maybe in the fourth? Are you thinking of him as simply a return specialist, or do you also like him at WR? At wideout, he's not a precise route-runner, and wasn't very productive in college. He suffered a concussion in 2004, missed '05 spring practices with compartment syndrome in his left leg, and sprained his toe in 2006. So, Royal has some injury concerns.

That's not a bad spot for Cottam, but I still wonder if his past injury problems won't be more of a concern? Also, he really didn't have all that much production, or starts in college, and has some blocking ability, but isn't an outstanding blocker, despite having tremendous size.

 

[BradyManny]

Eddie Royal's interesting, but shouldn't he be available later in the round, or maybe in the fourth?

I like Royal myself b/c return specialist is something we have to address at some point in the draft. Hobbs is a great KR, but I don't think we have the luxury of putting him back there given the past two seasons he's been hobbled (no pun intended) and we'll need him as #1 CB.

But do we have space for another wideout on the roster? That's my Q. I definitely want to target one of the quick guys for KR duties, but if you count Aiken as a wideout, thats 6 guys likely to make the team at WR.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I think you're giving up too much in that trade. Draft table has 7 and 62 at 1786 points. 15 and 45 at 1510 points. I know those are a little outdated. But, that's a 276 pt differeence. That's the total value of the 63rd pick. A fairer deal would be our 3rd 120 pts +1500. Not, our 2nd. Would allow us to get a little better ol by your board. Say, a D.Brown from Va. Tech.

Love the picks. And, the idea of trading down. Appreciate the hard work it takes to do something like that. I think you're being too nice to Detroit. Sub our 3rd instead of 2nd and they have a deal.
I know we save money. But, our points are still less that what we get.

 

[dryheat44]

You don't think they would take further advantage of the depth at CB?
They also wouldn't take any advantage of the depth at RB?

Why select both Keglar and Leman?

Sure they would, if the draft worked out where that's where the value was. Working through the mock, I felt the value was elsewhere. Regarding RBs, the position is so deep, that there will be some good UDFA types.

Why not? Take two guys with late round picks and evaluate them. Leman's ankle injury might be serious enough to redshirt him. Keglar can play OLB, as well as ILB in passing situations, so if they both show promise, there's no reason we can't make room for them. If we end up getting Seward, then we probably wouldn't draft both. Otherwise, why put our eggs in one basket?

 

[dryheat44]

I think you're giving up too much in that trade. Draft table has 7 and 62 at 1786 points. 15 and 45 at 1510 points. I know those are a little outdated. But, that's a 276 pt differeence. That's the total value of the 63rd pick. A fairer deal would be our 3rd 120 pts +1500. Not, our 2nd. Would allow us to get a little better ol by your board. Say, a D.Brown from Va. Tech.

Love the picks. And, the idea of trading down. Appreciate the hard work it takes to do something like that. I think you're being too nice to Detroit. Sub our 3rd instead of 2nd and they have a deal.
I know we save money. But, our points are still less that what we get.

Good observation. I happen to think it's a buyer's market, and we'll have to give up some value in order to make the trade. Otherwise, Detroit might just sit tight and grab another RB. I doubt Belichick cares much about the trade chart. If Groves is his option at #7 (and I'm guessing he would be in this scenario), why not trade back to where you think you can draft him and pay him less, plus improve draft position elsewhere, even if you don't get "chart value"?

 

[bakes781]

Good observation. I happen to think it's a buyer's market, and we'll have to give up some value in order to make the trade. Otherwise, Detroit might just sit tight and grab another RB. I doubt Belichick cares much about the trade chart. If Groves is his option at #7, why not trade back to where you think you can draft him and pay him less, plus improve draft position elsewhere, even if you don't get "chart value".

you could always include future picks since Detroit is so sure they're gonna have 10+ wins every year lol

 

[WhiZa]

Nice draft. It would be interesting to see if some of those trades actually happen.

Martin Rucker is the first TE selected and with all the TEs available do you feel he fits best for Buffalo? He seems to be lacking the some of the tools needed (blocking and to some degree receiving) to be selected that high.

 

[PatsandTrojans55]

The entire draft is here if you're into self-abuse: http://www.199overall.com/?q=node/33

Patriots picks:

Patriots trade #7 and #62 to Detroit for #15 and #45

15. Quentin Groves OLB Auburn
45. Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
69. Eddie Royal WR/KR/PR Virginia Tech
94. Eric Young OL Tennessee
129. Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
164. Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
197. Derrick Doggett SS Oregon St
238. Jeremy Leman ILB Illinois

Great Job Heatster!!!!!! You have the right idea.

If I may offer some things to keep in mind.
1. If they get get Adam Seward it will eliminate Keglar but I still hear the name Leman.
2. If Jonathan Stewart fell to 45, he would be a player they alter the strategy for and I believe he would be the pick. (They will replace Morris in the near future not Faulk because they have Faulk's replacement already in Maroney. He will get more opportunities to receive out of the backfield and he's already more explosive than Faulk with the ball the problem is Faulk is a devastating blocker and Maroney isn't there yet).
3. In your scenerio it would be perfect because they really like Terrell Thomas and could get him with #69.
4. Another TE to keep in mind if Cottam is passed on is Craig Stevens-Cal. He is a very good blocker in the zone-blocking scheme that could gain 10 extra pounds and uses very good technique and leverage as opposed to being a mauler.
5. About the trade chart: I agree to an extent but you gave the scenerio of a desperate team and BB LOVES desperate teams and I bet he gets a future first day pick for 2009 to make up the chart difference.

Again, very good job. And, I could tell you with GREAT confidence your on the right thought pattern.
PT55

 

[Ochmed Jones]

2. I really don't know. It seems that toe surgery is a pretty serious one for a running back, as plenty of NFLers have taken a long time to recover. With this year's RB depth, I could see Stewart dropping. I could also see him going in the top 20.

As a former FB, I can say that toe surgery, can have a devastating impact on a RB, if it affects his ability to cut or start and stop.

More than likely, teams will want fresh medical reports,X-rays and MRI data the night before the draft.

 

[zarakotas5]

As a former FB, I can say that toe surgery, can have a devastating impact on a RB, if it affects his ability to cut or start and stop.

More than likely, teams will want fresh medical reports,X-rays and MRI data the night before the draft.

I'll second that. Toes never heal properly and are continually painful and degenerative.

It's a minor injury, akin to a hangnail. BUT...hangnails are aggravating and distracting, aren't they? In a world where inches are miles, etc., this hangnail becomes a sprained ankle, at best.

Wanted to say this before, but.

EDIT: PS: This SHOULD be taken taken into consideration regarding Groves. Beyond his bogglingly frustrating lackadaisacal mental on-field play.

 

[tjones7]

I like the first 3 rounds but then i know nothing about anyone else you picked, am i just dumb or are they up and comers?

 

[zarakotas5]

The entire draft is here if you're into self-abuse: http://www.199overall.com/?q=node/33

Patriots picks:

Patriots trade #7 and #62 to Detroit for #15 and #45

15. Quentin Groves OLB Auburn
45. Brandon Flowers CB Virginia Tech
69. Eddie Royal WR/KR/PR Virginia Tech
94. Eric Young OL Tennessee
129. Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
164. Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
197. Derrick Doggett SS Oregon St
238. Jeremy Leman ILB Illinois

I read through the 199 deal.

At that position etc., Royal, Cottam, Keglar , even Leman have some value, IMO.

Maybe I'm wrong, but Groves has no place on a Pats draft board. If we still had #31, all day, great value. At 7-25, no. He's a great physical talent, of course, and his game would be an asset. Except, I've watched every game he's played last year, save one. On the field, the boy is in la-la land. I've said it before, and I say it now. Crable in the third > Groves in the first.

Flowers is an enigma. things to love, things to hate. Again, if the Pats had the 31st, I think Reggie Smith would be awesome. But they don't. Of course, you project him (rare on Patsfans) to be unavailable. Similar to Groves, better options elsewhere, possibly Cason (who I'd love on the Pats, in your trade scenario).

Doggitt: Bro, I freely admit knowing NOTHING. I watched 2 OST games and didn't notice him.

 

[zydecochris]

I know that the Jets owner came out in support of his GM and HC this week, but I guess whenever I see the off-dreaded "vote of confidence from the owner" I guess I consider that more of a sign of job insecurity than security, although perhaps I'm getting too cynical

Plus, it seemed like the change in direction from last off-season to the free agency Jets spending extravaganza this year seemed to smack of a bit of panic.

However, I completely agree with you that Ellis would be a much stronger choice for the Jets than McFadden, so perhaps I'm not giving the Jets brain trust enough credit.

Again, great job on the mock.

1. Yes. In fact, the Jets owner came out publicly in support of his GM and HC this week, stating that they're not going anywhere regardless of how this season turns out. Now, that's obviously a non-binding statement, but I think we can take it at face value. Here's a secret that smart GMs (which I consider the Jets brain trust to be) know: Running back is the most fungible position on the field. Success at the position depends so much on line play and the threat of a passing game, that similar running backs are pretty much exchangeable, and there's no need to draft one in a premium position. Once in a while a Barry Sanders or LaDainian Tomlinson comes along as an exception, but McFadden IMO is not in that class. People want to compare McFadden to Peterson, but they're not similar backs, and Peterson stepped into a great situation. For every Adrian Peterson, we can find three Blair Thomases. The Jets need too much defensive help to draft a running back #7. Getting one of those rare body-type players, like Sedric Ellis, is a great pick for them.

2. I really don't know. It seems that toe surgery is a pretty serious one for a running back, as plenty of NFLers have taken a long time to recover. With this year's RB depth, I could see Stewart dropping. I could also see him going in the top 20.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Great job as usual, alot of work into that thing!
My questions:
You have a couple OL in the bottom of rd 1 who I havent seen that high on anyone elses boards. Nicks has legal trouble....
First time I see us not taking Demps, but you have him going BEFORE Barrett?
You have us taking 2 Va Tech guys.....I dont know about you but I really dont want ANY. You have Adibi going very low, and you know of the problems with those guys. Royal is right there with your other guy Hawkins....is it because of return ability?
I think the trades are realistic but here is something that will definately change this year...with teams only picking 2 rounds you will see ALOT more sat nite trading of picks, ALOT more trading in the 3rd round this year than ever before. And I have to think they will try a trade for a future pick(not becuase I want it--good draft--but thats their thing), trading down could very well include one of those, just not a first.
Very realistic. I like it.