New U-H Horizontal Sort, 3/26

[patchick]

The player that will be available will be Sedrick Ellis. I am not sure how many teams would actually be interested in moving up to get him. Maybe the Bengals, maybe the Bears or Panthers move up to get an OT. I really don't see if likely at team wanting to move up.

Here's a recent thread on the topic:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=79675

There's a big dropoff at DT after Ellis, and a lot of teams in need at the position. I think the Pats would have little trouble trading down if they accepted a fairly modest return -- an exchange of 2nd-round picks, for instance, would close up the gap in their draft.

 

[ayjackson]

DH, a couple of questions. First, in the past you've said that sometimes you leave a player off if he's sure to be gone by the tier you value him. That said, I see DRC on your draft board in Tier 5. Comments?

Second, how do you evaluate Terrell Thomas, CB, USC? I read a very encouraging scouting report at New Era Scouting (whoever they are), but you don't have him listed anywhere.

 

[Ring 6]

I wouldnt even have Gholston on the list.
He is absolutely, absolutely, absolutely not going to be a good 3-4 OLB in a 2gap system.
I would agree he is in the top 10, probably top 5 in the overall draft, but for a 3-4 2 gap team, he probably isnt in the top 25.
Gholston is about speed, one-gap discipline and a big risk/big reward player.
I have seen probably 85% of his college snaps, and have little faith he can make the transition to 3-4 OLB, and zero faith he could excel in a 2gap system.
He could be a Freeney kind of guy, and that makes him valuable to 1 gap 4-3 teams, but I would almost consider him off our board due to not having a postion he can play well that translates into our system.
I actually like the player a lot, but he would be a square peg jammed into a round hole with the Pats.

 

[patchick]

I wouldnt even have Gholston on the list.
He is absolutely, absolutely, absolutely not going to be a good 3-4 OLB in a 2gap system.
I would agree he is in the top 10, probably top 5 in the overall draft, but for a 3-4 2 gap team, he probably isnt in the top 25.
Gholston is about speed, one-gap discipline and a big risk/big reward player.
I have seen probably 85% of his college snaps, and have little faith he can make the transition to 3-4 OLB, and zero faith he could excel in a 2gap system.
He could be a Freeney kind of guy, and that makes him valuable to 1 gap 4-3 teams, but I would almost consider him off our board due to not having a postion he can play well that translates into our system.
I actually like the player a lot, but he would be a square peg jammed into a round hole with the Pats.

Interesting...what's your take on Groves?

 

[Metaphors]

Gholston is about speed, one-gap discipline and a big risk/big reward player.

Speed is a good thing.
Having one-gap discipline in a one-gap system is a good thing.
Big reward is a good thing.

As for the big risk, I don't see it being any higher than the other top 10 picks. At worst, you can line Gholston up wide and have him haul ass after the QB on passing downs. That is his absolute floor and is still a useful and needed skill set.

I can see not taking Gholston at #7 because he is an unknown at OLB in the Pats system. I can't see how you can predict with certainty that he would fail in the transition. He played within the system at OSU and was extremely successful.

Just because a guy is a top-flight poker player doesn't mean he can't be a very successful accountant.

 

[dryheat44]

I wouldnt even have Gholston on the list.
He is absolutely, absolutely, absolutely not going to be a good 3-4 OLB in a 2gap system.
I would agree he is in the top 10, probably top 5 in the overall draft, but for a 3-4 2 gap team, he probably isnt in the top 25.
Gholston is about speed, one-gap discipline and a big risk/big reward player.
I have seen probably 85% of his college snaps, and have little faith he can make the transition to 3-4 OLB, and zero faith he could excel in a 2gap system.
He could be a Freeney kind of guy, and that makes him valuable to 1 gap 4-3 teams, but I would almost consider him off our board due to not having a postion he can play well that translates into our system.
I actually like the player a lot, but he would be a square peg jammed into a round hole with the Pats.

Wow. I respect your opinion, especially since you've seen him play so much. I've seen probably half of his games the last two years, and I've never been more confident of a successful DE to OLB conversion in years. Speed and explosion are good, one-gap discipline won't matter at OLB, he can play the run, and he's really a heads-up kind of player. I think he's much more Mike Vrabel than Dwight Freeney.

 

[Metaphors]

Wow. I respect your opinion, especially since you've seen him play so much. I've seen probably half of his games the last two years, and I've never been more confident of a successful DE to OLB conversion in years. Speed and explosion are good, one-gap discipline won't matter at OLB, he can play the run, and he's really a heads-up kind of player. I think he's much more Mike Vrabel than Dwight Freeney.

I fall exactly between you and AJ. His physical skills could make him a dominant force playing outside Seymour. But haven't seen him do some of the things that will be asked of him (seal the edge on runs, drop out into zone coverage, etc.) to feel 100% confident on the conversion.

The thing that sways me is how he showed up in big games. Seemed like he was "in frame" on every play and made some good offenses look out of sync. If he can translate that to the Pats OLB position, that will translate into turnovers for the opposing offense.

Far too many drives in 2007 were painfully sustained. The opening drive in the SB was a game-changer...not because of the 3 points but because of the tone it set. It is hard to stop a team from gaining 10 yards in 4 plays without turning them over. This is the top need area for 2008 IMO and I believe Gholston can help even without a 100% successful OLB transition.

 

[mike100915]

DH, why don't you have Ali Highsmith listed?

 

[dryheat44]

DH, why don't you have Ali Highsmith listed?

Because he's small, slow, and unathletic. Where would he play in this defense? I don't want a guy under six feet and 230 lbs playing ILB, and I don't want someone who's a 4.8 guy with no explosion playing OLB.

 

[everlong]

Tier 3 -- Value #21-#35
Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Devin Thomas WR Michigan St
Brandon Albert G Virginia
Aqib Talib CB Kansas
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Antoine Cason CB Arizona

Tier 4 -- Value #36-#55
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Limas Sweed WR Texas
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
Early Doucett WR LSU
Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
Cliff Avril LB Purdue
Erin Henderson LB Maryland
Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
Johnathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
Branden Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Reggie Smith DB Oklahoma

Clearly there is a HUGE sweet spot in this range this year so I pray we can some how trade down and get move picks in this range. If somehow the Dallas trade for #22 and #29 ever came to fruition I'd be doing cartwheels.

 

[dryheat44]

Clearly there is a HUGE sweet spot in this range this year so I pray we can some how trade down and get move picks in this range. If somehow the Dallas trade for #22 and #29 ever came to fruition I'd be doing cartwheels.

No doubt. I remember Pioli in past years saying something to the effect that the real value of the draft is found in pick 13 through 50.

 

[Ring 6]

Speed is a good thing.
Having one-gap discipline in a one-gap system is a good thing.
Big reward is a good thing.

As for the big risk, I don't see it being any higher than the other top 10 picks. At worst, you can line Gholston up wide and have him haul ass after the QB on passing downs. That is his absolute floor and is still a useful and needed skill set.

I can see not taking Gholston at #7 because he is an unknown at OLB in the Pats system. I can't see how you can predict with certainty that he would fail in the transition. He played within the system at OSU and was extremely successful.

Just because a guy is a top-flight poker player doesn't mean he can't be a very successful accountant.

I dont mean big risk/big reward draft choice, I mean big risk/big reward style of play, like a DE in the Tampa2 one gap system.
I'm saying he would fail in a 2 gap system.
Let me put it another way. If you had a 280lb DT that was lightining quick, dispurptive in the pass rush, but clearly not big and strong enough to be a solid 2 gap defender, he could be a superstar on some teams, but would be a failure in our 2 gap 34. That is analogous in my opinion to Gholston. We would be asking him to use the skills he is weakest at most often, and the ones he excels at rarely. Square peg, round hole.

 

[Ring 6]

Wow. I respect your opinion, especially since you've seen him play so much. I've seen probably half of his games the last two years, and I've never been more confident of a successful DE to OLB conversion in years. Speed and explosion are good, one-gap discipline won't matter at OLB, he can play the run, and he's really a heads-up kind of player. I think he's much more Mike Vrabel than Dwight Freeney.

Sure one gap vs 2 matters, because as a one gap 43 DE, he has to worry about nothing but rushing the passer every down. And he would struggle terribly at the point of attack playing OLB as a 2gapper.
He did not hold up well at all at the point of attack at OSU when asked to, and made almost all of his plays using one gap techniques. I suppose its not impossible for him to develop those abilities but if you cant sustain the poa in college, good luck in the NFL.

 

[jczxohn1]

With K.Brady gone, Thomas coming off an injury to what will be a rookie season, and Watson having undergone ankle surgery, a TE seems almost a first day lock. You don't show a TE on your board til Tier 6. Is that because higher rated ones weren't an earlier fit, or is the Tenn. kid the BPA? Also, with CB and LB needs, TE developments may guarantee a trade down unless a FA becomes available.

After looking at the other sort,I see only 4 TE's on the board.Slim pickings may put more pressure on this important aspect of the offense. We have only 2 signed.

 

[sebman2112]

Speaking of Gholston, some pro scouts are calling him more of an undersized 3 tech DT with speed, and not simply an edge rusher.

 

[Metaphors]

We would be asking him to use the skills he is weakest at most often, and the ones he excels at rarely. Square peg, round hole.

I think you are way too narrow on what it takes to be successful as a Pats OLB. Agree with your NT comments and would extend them to include DE as well...which is exactly why we have a DL full of high-mid 1st round picks. There are very few folks on Earth that can do those jobs and you get them when you can.

LBs aren't so specialized. There have been many LBs that have been successful since 2000 and they have come in all kinds of shapes, sizes, skills and abilities. I don't think there is a rigid prototype. There is a physical template they all seem to fit into (6'2" - 6'5", 250 - 270) and Gholston fits right in that range.

McGinest, Vrabel, Phifer, TBC, Colvin, AD...all brought different skill sets to the table and all blended into the scheme nicely. Your POA comment confuses me since that would only be applicable on a sweep or off-tackle run. The OLB has the responsibility of sealing the edge and forcing the action back inside, not making the tackle. When have you seen Gholston get flattened by a pulling guard or a fullback? Sealing the edge is really more about discipline and technique...and Gholston wasn't asked to play that technique at OSU.

Ghoston may be a flop as a Pats OLB, but I (for one) would gladly give up the occasional botched assignment for a physical talent that can cause havoc all over the field.

Just for my information...who do you think WOULD be a successful Pats OLB in this draft class?

 

[Metaphors]

Speaking of Gholston, some pro scouts are calling him more of an undersized 3 tech DT with speed, and not simply an edge rusher.

I like to think of him as an oversized cover 2 safety with marginal speed and questionable ball skills.

Or maybe a gigantic punter with amazing speed and no kicking ability.

Or an enormous shortstop with limited range and ...

Ah, never mind.

 

[sebman2112]

I like to think of him as an oversized cover 2 safety with marginal speed and questionable ball skills.

Or maybe a gigantic punter with amazing speed and no kicking ability.

Or an enormous shortstop with limited range and ...

Ah, never mind.

An undersized 3 tech DT is what Tom Marino has called Gholston.

 

[Metaphors]

An undersized 3 tech DT is what Tom Marino has called Gholston.

but earlier you posted

some pro scouts are calling him more of an undersized 3 tech DT

which made it seem like it was it was the opinion of multiple sources.

I don't know the context of what Marino said. If he was making an abstract point about Gholston's skill set, that is fine. "3-technique" generally means athletic and penetrating which could be used to describe Gholston.

If he was saying that Gholston could line up inside on long yardage situations, that is at least semi-plausible. Tuck showed in the SB that you can cause havoc between the tackle and guard. However, Tuck is bigger/stronger and generally makes his living outside.

If he thinks that Gholston could play DT as his core position, he is drunk. More times than not he would get engulfed and allow giant holes in the center of the line. Speed doesn't help you when you are lined up 2 feet from the OL. You need the hands to gain leverage, strength to create movement and quickness to exploit the gap.

Marino certainly knows more about scouting than I do, but I am confident in saying he is ALONE in this evaluation of Gholston.