New U-H Horizontal Sort, 3/26

[dryheat44]

After re-working the board, and keeping with a Patriot-centric emphasis, here's how the board shapes up. Some high-profile guys, like McFadden and Ryan, are missing since they'll be gone long, long before the Patriots would consider drafting them. I could probably do the same with others on the list (Rodgers-Cromartie, Felix Jones), but given the rises and falls of the weeks leading up to the draft, I've kept them on, so if the man made the first version, he's still here. Remember, this is where their value to the 2008 New England Patriots would be, as seen through the eyes of the senile Uncle, so guys with injury or character issues are farther down than they would otherwise be so as to minimize risk, if they haven't been altogether removed.


Tier 1 -- Value #1-#8
Jake Long OT Michigan
Chris Long LB Virginia

Tier 2 -- Value #9-#20
Vernon Gholston LB Ohio St
Ryan Clady OT Boise St
Quentin Groves LB Auburn
Glenn Dorsey DE LSU
Sedric Ellis DE USC

Tier 3 -- Value #21-#35
Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Devin Thomas WR Michigan St
Brandon Albert G Virginia
Aqib Talib CB Kansas
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Antoine Cason CB Arizona

Tier 4 -- Value #36-#55
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Limas Sweed WR Texas
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
Early Doucett WR LSU
Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
Cliff Avril LB Purdue
Erin Henderson LB Maryland
Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
Johnathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
Branden Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Reggie Smith DB Oklahoma

Tier 5 -- Value #56-#75
Chad Henne QB Michigan
Joe Flacco QB Delaware
Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech
Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
Eric Young G Tennessee
Sam Baker G USC
Ezra Butler OLB Nevada
Derrick Harvey OLB Florida
Pat Sims DE Auburn
Trevor Laws DE Notre Dame
Kentwan Balmer DE North Carolina
Red Bryant NT Texas A&M
Tracy Porter CB Indiana
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee St
Quentin Demps S UTEP
Josh Barrett Arizona St

Tier 6 -- Value #76-#100
Matt Forte RB Tulane
Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
Oneil Cousins OL UTEP
Charles Godfrey CB Iowa
Chevis Jackson DB LSU
Tom Zbikowski S Notre Dame
Jamar Adams S Michigan

Tier 7 -- Value #101-#125
Kevin Smith RB Central Florida
Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
Tashard Choice RB Georgia Tech
Owen Schmitt FB/TE West Virginia
John Greco OT Toledo
Duane Brown OT Virginia Tech
Mike Pollack C Arizona St
Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
Jeremy Thompson LB Wake Forest
Ahtyba Rubin NT Iowa St
Frank Okam NT Texas
Jack Williams CB Kent St
Patrick Lee S Auburn
Derrick Doggett S Oregon St
Wesley Woodyard S Kentucky

Tier 8 -- Value #126-#150
Erik Ainge QB Tennessee
Josh Johnson QB San Diego
Ray Rice RB Rutgers
Lavelle Hawkins WR California
Darius Reynard WR West Virginia
Paul Hubbard WR Wisconsin
Kevin Robinson WR Utah St
Craig Stevens TE California
Jeremy Zuttah G Rutgers
Kory Lichtensteiger C Bowling Green
John Sullivan C Notre Dame
Chase Ortiz ILB TCU
Trevor Scott OLB Buffalo
Gary Guyton OLB Georgia Tech
Bryan Kehl OLB BYU
Nick Hayden DE Wisconsin
Marcus Harrison DE Arkansas
Kellen Dykes DE West Virginia
Dwight Lowery CB San Jose St.
Jonathan Zenon CB LSU
Jonathan Wilhite CB Auburn
Antwan Molden CB Eastern Kentucky
Craig Steltz S LSU

Tier 9 -- Value #151-#200
Sam Keller QB Nebraska
Thomas Brown RB Georgia
Jacob Hester RB LSU
Chauncey Washington RB USC
Jalen Parmele RB Toledo
Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina
Gary Barnidge TE Louisville
Kellen Davis TE Michigan St
Drew Miller C Florida
Drew Radovich G USC
Hilee Taylor LB North Carolina
Jeremy Leman LB Illinois
Jack Ikeguonu CB Wisconsin

Tier 10 -- Value #201-UDFA
Seth Adams QB Mississippi
Albert Young RB Iowa
Marcus Thomas RB UTEP
Keon Lattimore RB Maryland
Justin Beaver RB Wisconsin - Whitewater
Peyton Hillis FB Arkansas
Marcus Henry WR Kansas
Roderick Johnson ILB Oklahoma St
Kaleb Thornhill ILB Michigan St
Martail Burnett ILB Utah
Jeff Van Orsow ILB Oregon St
Rudy Hardie ILB Howard
Marc Magro ILB West Virginia
Casper Brinkley OLB South Carolina
Jonal Saint-Dic OLB Michigan St
Andy Studebaker OLB Wheaton
Bob Williams S Bethune-Cookman

 

[mike100915]

I think Gholston has to be in tier 1. He performance is just as good as Chris Long's. Also, I think Groves should be moved down to tier 3. I'm just not as high on him as the others are. As good as Jake Long is, I'm don't think he is a Franchise LT. He'll be an excellent pro, but he'll never be a lock down LT. Yes, he was good at Michigan, but he can be beat handly by speed rushers. In the NFL, he'll deal with them 85% of the time. I'll still love to see him there at #7, but I think when it comes to tier 1 players. It's Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, and Glenn Dorsey.

 

[dryheat44]

I think Gholston has to be in tier 1. He performance is just as good as Chris Long's. Also, I think Groves should be moved down to tier 3. I'm just not as high on him as the others are. As good as Jake Long is, I'm don't think he is a Franchise LT. He'll be an excellent pro, but he'll never be a lock down LT. Yes, he was good at Michigan, but he can be beat handly by speed rushers. In the NFL, he'll deal with them 85% of the time. I'll still love to see him there at #7, but I think when it comes to tier 1 players. It's Chris Long, Vernon Gholston, and Glenn Dorsey.

Dorsey's probably the best football player in the draft. I moved him down a tier because I don't think he represents top 8 draft pick value to the Patriots with Seymour, Warren, and Green all under contract. That being said, if they traded down to, say, 15, and he was still there by some fluky development, they'd probably take him and worry about it later.

 

[cstjohn17]

Wow, you love this stuff.

My interpretation (assuming no trade downs) is that you expect:
Pick #7 - the Pats to get a player from Tier 2 (maybe, maybe, maybe Tier 1)
Pick #62 - maybe Tier #4, likely Tier 5
Pick #69 - Tier 5
Pick #94 - Tier 6, maybe Tier 5

I could live with that, on paper we would get 1 starter and 2-3 quality reserves at LB and CB.

Comments
- you may be overating the LBs, it is easy to do because we focus so much energy on 'future' Patriot LBs
- you are clearly not high on Harvey, but Tier5? Wow, I can respect a man who holds a grudge

 

[BradyManny]

Thanks for posting - great stuff as usual.

 

[dryheat44]

Wow, you love this stuff.

My interpretation (assuming no trade downs) is that you expect:
Pick #7 - the Pats to get a player from Tier 2 (maybe, maybe, maybe Tier 1)
Pick #62 - maybe Tier #4, likely Tier 5
Pick #69 - Tier 5
Pick #94 - Tier 6, maybe Tier 5

you are clearly not high on Harvey, but Tier5? Wow, I can respect a man who holds a grudge

I wouldn't expect we would need to go below Tier 5 in the first three rounds. When I mocked it out, there was still a player or two in Tier 4 that were still there, although I've since adjusted. Different draft boards for different teams.

I'm unaware of the grudge of which you speak.

 

[mike100915]

I disagree with your assesement of Glenn Dorsey. Yes, he is more suited to be a 4-3 tackle, but so was Vince Wilfork. Give Dorsey a year in this system and he will be more dominant then Wilfork is. With the recent play and health concerns of Richard Seymour, I don't think passing on Dorsey would make any sense. He won't be there come #7 anyways, but he's a football player, who can play effectively in any system.

 

[BradyManny]

What do you think of Chris Williams for the Pats? I see you have him in Tier 4, but if the Pats could trade down to the middle or end of round 1, he would certainly be one of the guys on my list who I'd be hoping for them to get. I've been on the Clady bandwagon and in general think the OL could use some help, Williams later in the draft may present better value than Clady.

 

[mike100915]

What do you think of Chris Williams for the Pats? I see you have him in Tier 4, but if the Pats could trade down to the middle or end of round 1, he would certainly be one of the guys on my list who I'd be hoping for them to get. I've been on the Clady bandwagon and in general think the OL could use some help, Williams later in the draft may present better value than Clady.

I personally believe taking an OL at #7 would be a mistake. That have alot more issues on defense. OL wasn't a problem at all last year until the Super Bowl. They can add more depth in the OL in rounds 4 and 5.

 

[Metaphors]

Tier 1 -- Value #1-#8
Jake Long OT Michigan
Chris Long LB Virginia

First off, I think this type of exercise is more interesting than a mock draft. Miss the prediction on a guy early and it can domino the rest of the selections into oblivion.

Now...I agree with your selection Jake and also agree with others wanting to put Gholston in tier 1. I am still missing the love for Chris Long in the Patriots' system. I've seen him play in a handful of games in the last few years and I don't see an easy transition to OLB. He hasn't done it before and the success he has had at DE (inside penetration) translates marginally to OLB.

Chris Long is a fine player and I think he would do really well in St. Louis, Oakland or Cincinnati as a disruptive DE in both the passing and running game. I could see a team taking him on as a conversion project at pick #20 because he has refined skills and football seems very important to him. I can't see taking him at #1, #6 or #7 and crossing your fingers on a huge cash investment.

Gholston has played with his hand off the ground, but he seemed more effective playing as a traditional DE. That being said, his outside speed rush and ability to engage blockers on the edge seem to translate better to what is expected of a Pats OLB.

Anyone out there who has seen Chris Long play in games (highlights always look good and combine numbers are of marginal worth) have a different assessment about his game at UVA and how it would translate to a Pats OLB?

 

[dryheat44]

Anyone out there who has seen Chris Long play in games (highlights always look good and combine numbers are of marginal worth) have a different assessment about his game at UVA and how it would translate to a Pats OLB?

Yes several times. I am, and have this entire time, pegged Chris Long as a 3-4 ILB. Not that he couldn't play OLB, but I see him more in the role of taking on and overpowering guards and fullbacks near the line of scrimmage. He'd also be near unstoppable running stunts from the inside, much like the Giants used Justin Tuck at times this past season.

 

[dryheat44]

I disagree with your assesement of Glenn Dorsey. Yes, he is more suited to be a 4-3 tackle, but so was Vince Wilfork. Give Dorsey a year in this system and he will be more dominant then Wilfork is. With the recent play and health concerns of Richard Seymour, I don't think passing on Dorsey would make any sense. He won't be there come #7 anyways, but he's a football player, who can play effectively in any system.

Wilfork has about 50 lbs on Dorsey. Seymour and Warren have more bulk than Dorsey. Dorsey's position in the 3-4 is end, and it's hard to justify the Patriots taking a #4 defensive end at #7 overall this year.

 

[Metaphors]

Yes several times. I am, and have this entire time, pegged Chris Long as a 3-4 ILB. Not that he couldn't play OLB, but I see him more in the role of taking on and overpowering guards and fullbacks near the line of scrimmage. He'd also be near unstoppable running stunts from the inside, much like the Giants used Justin Tuck at times this past season.

My mistake. Everyone else seems to peg him as an OLB and I just don't see it...at least not without a lengthy conversion process.

Your description makes a lot more sense. I could see a transition to ILB being much easier. Not that he has done it before...just that his strength, moves and pursuit intensity (hate the term "motor") seem like a natural fit as a Pats ILB.

Now the question becomes one of cap value. Is the ILB projection for Long that much better than what they could get from someone like Goff in round 3? Taken another way...would you rather have:

ILB Long and CB Patrick Lee

or trade down, get additional picks and get something like:

CB Cromartie and ILB Goff
or
OLB Harvey and CB Cason

Very interesting to think about. Best part is that the 2008 defense should get a solid infusion of youth/speed regardless.

 

[mike100915]

Wilfork has about 50 lbs on Dorsey. Seymour and Warren have more bulk than Dorsey. Dorsey's position in the 3-4 is end, and it's hard to justify the Patriots taking a #4 defensive end at #7 overall this year.

I think Dorsey could play all 3 on the positions on the DL. With the lack of production coming out of Richard Seymour, picking Dorsey wouldn't be such a bad thing. It would also allow them to do even more thing on defense. It would also be a safer pick then say a Ryan Clady. They will not take a corner at #7, so passing on Dorsey would be foolish. This is probably a moot point, because he probably won't get past Atlanta anyways. His pro day is today as well.

 

[Metaphors]

I think Dorsey could play all 3 on the positions on the DL. With the lack of production coming out of Richard Seymour, picking Dorsey wouldn't be such a bad thing. It would also allow them to do even more thing on defense. It would also be a safer pick then say a Ryan Clady. They will not take a corner at #7, so passing on Dorsey would be foolish. This is probably a moot point, because he probably won't get past Atlanta anyways. His pro day is today as well.

Your description would be fine if the Pats were picking at #31...

<deep breath to let the bad feelings pass>

...but I would hope that if the Pats pick in the top 10 they will end up with a player who is a significant improvement over whoever is starting now at his position. You can go hatin' on Seymour but taking Dorsey doesn't work for me unless you trade someone first. I don't see that happening.

 

[BradyManny]

I personally believe taking an OL at #7 would be a mistake. That have alot more issues on defense. OL wasn't a problem at all last year until the Super Bowl. They can add more depth in the OL in rounds 4 and 5.

I agree the defense has more needs, but like with your rationale for selecting Dorsey at #7, I would consider taking the best OL available at 7 if Gholston is gone and we can't trade down (which I am increasingly becoming convinced we will be able to, so the point may be moot.)

My OL concerns are three-fold - one, I think Kaczur can be upgraded; two, Matt Light will eventually need a replacement at LT and if we have a chance to get a franchise LT, we should consider it and three, the injury to Neal in the SB, and whether it affects him in 08.

But I agree, there are a ton of middle round OL prospects that are great fits for the Pats, athletic and versatile linemen who are noted as good for zone blocking schemes. Oneil Cousins, Donald Thomas, Greco, Chad Rinehart, Duane Brown are a few guys who I'm guessing would be good fits for the Pats.

 

[mike100915]

I have to disagree with you to the fact the the Patriots will trade down. I think if certain people are not there they will want to trade down, but I don't think it's that easy. What team is going to want to move up? and for what player? Maybe if Matt Ryan is there yes, but I don't see a Carolina moving up to get an OT. The Patriots may almost be foreced to take a player at #7. I just want to say a guy around here who get no attention, but I think is an excellent player and someone I would consider at #7 is Keith Rivers.

 

[BradyManny]

I have to disagree with you to the fact the the Patriots will trade down. I think if certain people are not there they will want to trade down, but I don't think it's that easy. What team is going to want to move up? and for what player? Maybe if Matt Ryan is there yes, but I don't see a Carolina moving up to get an OT. The Patriots may almost be foreced to take a player at #7. I just want to say a guy around here who get no attention, but I think is an excellent player and someone I would consider at #7 is Keith Rivers.

This is a huge simplification, but here's my logic re: a trade down - There are four players that would be trade-up worthy if they were available at #7, Ryan, McFadden, Dorsey, Ellis. There are 3 players we'd take without question if they were available at #7 (and 2 of them most definitely won't), the two Longs and Gholston. So by my math, somebody is going to be there at 7 that we'll either want to take, or will at least garner some level of interest in a trade scenario.

 

[mike100915]

The player that will be available will be Sedrick Ellis. I am not sure how many teams would actually be interested in moving up to get him. Maybe the Bengals, maybe the Bears or Panthers move up to get an OT. I really don't see if likely at team wanting to move up. Even if McFadden falls to us, do you see a team really wanting to move up to get him? Dallas has said that they don't want to pay the cost to move up to the top 10. It would cost a whole bunch.

 

[jeffbiologist]

After re-working the board, and keeping with a Patriot-centric emphasis, here's how the board shapes up. Some high-profile guys, like McFadden and Ryan, are missing since they'll be gone long, long before the Patriots would consider drafting them. I could probably do the same with others on the list (Rodgers-Cromartie, Felix Jones), but given the rises and falls of the weeks leading up to the draft, I've kept them on, so if the man made the first version, he's still here. Remember, this is where their value to the 2008 New England Patriots would be, as seen through the eyes of the senile Uncle, so guys with injury or character issues are farther down than they would otherwise be so as to minimize risk, if they haven't been altogether removed.


Tier 1 -- Value #1-#8
Jake Long OT Michigan
Chris Long LB Virginia

Tier 2 -- Value #9-#20
Vernon Gholston LB Ohio St
Ryan Clady OT Boise St
Quentin Groves LB Auburn
Glenn Dorsey DE LSU
Sedric Ellis DE USC

Tier 3 -- Value #21-#35
Andre Caldwell WR Florida
Devin Thomas WR Michigan St
Brandon Albert G Virginia
Aqib Talib CB Kansas
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy
Antoine Cason CB Arizona

Tier 4 -- Value #36-#55
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon
Felix Jones RB Arkansas
Limas Sweed WR Texas
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma
Early Doucett WR LSU
Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt
Anthony Collins OT Kansas
Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College
Cliff Avril LB Purdue
Erin Henderson LB Maryland
Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee
Johnathan Goff LB Vanderbilt
Branden Flowers CB Virginia Tech
Reggie Smith DB Oklahoma

Tier 5 -- Value #56-#75
Chad Henne QB Michigan
Joe Flacco QB Delaware
Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech
Earl Bennett WR Vanderbilt
Eric Young G Tennessee
Sam Baker G USC
Ezra Butler OLB Nevada
Derrick Harvey OLB Florida
Pat Sims DE Auburn
Trevor Laws DE Notre Dame
Kentwan Balmer DE North Carolina
Red Bryant NT Texas A&M
Tracy Porter CB Indiana
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee St
Quentin Demps S UTEP
Josh Barrett Arizona St

Tier 6 -- Value #76-#100
Matt Forte RB Tulane
Brad Cottam TE Tennessee
Oneil Cousins OL UTEP
Charles Godfrey CB Iowa
Chevis Jackson DB LSU
Tom Zbikowski S Notre Dame
Jamar Adams S Michigan

Tier 7 -- Value #101-#125
Kevin Smith RB Central Florida
Chris Johnson RB East Carolina
Tashard Choice RB Georgia Tech
Owen Schmitt FB/TE West Virginia
John Greco OT Toledo
Duane Brown OT Virginia Tech
Mike Pollack C Arizona St
Stanford Keglar LB Purdue
Jeremy Thompson LB Wake Forest
Ahtyba Rubin NT Iowa St
Frank Okam NT Texas
Jack Williams CB Kent St
Patrick Lee S Auburn
Derrick Doggett S Oregon St
Wesley Woodyard S Kentucky

Tier 8 -- Value #126-#150
Erik Ainge QB Tennessee
Josh Johnson QB San Diego
Ray Rice RB Rutgers
Lavelle Hawkins WR California
Darius Reynard WR West Virginia
Paul Hubbard WR Wisconsin
Kevin Robinson WR Utah St
Craig Stevens TE California
Jeremy Zuttah G Rutgers
Kory Lichtensteiger C Bowling Green
John Sullivan C Notre Dame
Chase Ortiz ILB TCU
Trevor Scott OLB Buffalo
Gary Guyton OLB Georgia Tech
Bryan Kehl OLB BYU
Nick Hayden DE Wisconsin
Marcus Harrison DE Arkansas
Kellen Dykes DE West Virginia
Dwight Lowery CB San Jose St.
Jonathan Zenon CB LSU
Jonathan Wilhite CB Auburn
Antwan Molden CB Eastern Kentucky
Craig Steltz S LSU

Tier 9 -- Value #151-#200
Sam Keller QB Nebraska
Thomas Brown RB Georgia
Jacob Hester RB LSU
Chauncey Washington RB USC
Jalen Parmele RB Toledo
Jerome Simpson WR Coastal Carolina
Gary Barnidge TE Louisville
Kellen Davis TE Michigan St
Drew Miller C Florida
Drew Radovich G USC
Hilee Taylor LB North Carolina
Jeremy Leman LB Illinois
Jack Ikeguonu CB Wisconsin

Tier 10 -- Value #201-UDFA
Seth Adams QB Mississippi
Albert Young RB Iowa
Marcus Thomas RB UTEP
Keon Lattimore RB Maryland
Justin Beaver RB Wisconsin - Whitewater
Peyton Hillis FB Arkansas
Marcus Henry WR Kansas
Roderick Johnson ILB Oklahoma St
Kaleb Thornhill ILB Michigan St
Martail Burnett ILB Utah
Jeff Van Orsow ILB Oregon St
Rudy Hardie ILB Howard
Marc Magro ILB West Virginia
Casper Brinkley OLB South Carolina
Jonal Saint-Dic OLB Michigan St
Andy Studebaker OLB Wheaton
Bob Williams S Bethune-Cookman

First, great job as usual! This is so much more INTERESTING than a mock, and you put the work into it to put yourself out here for criticizm,lol. That said, have a couple problems.....
So are you saying that there is NO value for the pats to draft at 7 if the Longs are gone? I can see that. But that almost mandates a trade back where alot of other guys come into play. I dont have ANY WRs worthy of tier 3 never mind having Caldwell first. I cant see any of them ranking above Williams. And you have several other CBs missing...Thomas(USC),Jenkins(SFL)etc...some of these HAVE to have value 50-70 dont they?? You do have ILBs too high as someone said before, I would be shocked if we took one before the 3rd rd. You managed to include our Binkies,yours conveniently sandwiched between Barrett and Cromartie(!!??!!). My last question is a guy who I think is rising up some boards and being LB central should be on your radar....Howard out of GA, what do you think of him? Is there a reason why we wouldnt take a shot at him if he dropped....GA players have a pretty decent record in the NFL lately. THanks.