The FA/draft cycle (Gratuitous Self-Congratulation Alert!)

[patchick]

Searching for something else, I stumbled on a thread I barely remember posting on March 7, 2007. It argued that past FA/draft patterns pointed toward the Pats trading aggressively out of the 2007 draft. They proceeded to trade away a 1st, 3rd and 4th. So first, let me shamelessly say: nice job, me! (Hey, I'm wrong so often I have to celebrate the moments of rightness.) More interestingly, the same analysis seems to point toward the Pats not trading out of 2008. See what you think:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?t=52173

Maybe I'm overthinking this, but...

The 2006 draft was widely regarded as one of the deepest ever.

Heading into the 2006 draft the Patriots let a ton of veterans go, and by my count 10 rookies ended the year on the roster or IR. 10!

The 2007 draft is regarded as weak in comparison. Just look at a guy like David Thomas, who was considered just barely good value at the bottom of the 3rd. This year he'd quite likely be the #2 TE off the board in the 2nd round.

Heading into the 2007 draft, the Patriots have gone on a free agent signing spree, including trading picks for vets.

The trick is, last year's vet purge leaves the team with a bunch of (untradeable) comp picks in this weak draft. Next year, we have to assume 0 comp picks. So what does the 2008 draft look like? If 2008 projects to be another banner crop, that has to affect the team's draft strategy. I'd expect some aggressive trading away of picks toward next year.

 

[cstjohn17]

Good job by you!

I will read your analysis in more detail but I agree with your theory for a couple of other reasons:
1) They went for broke last year (not in a reckless way) the team was stacked with veterans at almost every position. Likely the best roster since free agency started.
2) the need help and don't have the cap room to plug in players at every position.

You are right 2006 was a pretty good draft, most years we should expect 1 starter and 2-3 backups to emerge. We have 2 starts (Maroney and Ghost) with a much of backups.
Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota
2 36 Chad Jackson WR Florida
3 86 David Thomas TE Texas
4 106 Garrett Mills RB Tulsa
4 118 Stephen Gostkowski K Memphis
5 136 Ryan O'Callaghan T California
6 191 Jeremy Mincey LB Florida
6 205 Dan Stevenson G Notre Dame
6 206 Le Kevin Smith DT Nebraska
7 229 Willie Andrews CB Baylor

 

[alvinnf]

Since nobody knows the who or where, The most obvious place or direction of movement is up into the top of the second round. This draft is supposedly loaded from the 15-40 or so range. We have a great fissure between our first two picks, none in the strength of this draft. But if you look at the draft value chart it is'nt a stretch to think that we couldn't get up and into the top half of the second round. If I were to guess that is the most likely of all draft day scenerios.

 

[OsloRhino]

Good job by you!

I will read your analysis in more detail but I agree with your theory for a couple of other reasons:
1) They went for broke last year (not in a reckless way) the team was stacked with veterans at almost every position. Likely the best roster since free agency started.
2) the need help and don't have the cap room to plug in players at every position.

You are right 2006 was a pretty good draft, most years we should expect 1 starter and 2-3 backups to emerge. We have 2 starts (Maroney and Ghost) with a much of backups.
Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota
2 36 Chad Jackson WR Florida
3 86 David Thomas TE Texas
4 106 Garrett Mills RB Tulsa
4 118 Stephen Gostkowski K Memphis
5 136 Ryan O'Callaghan T California
6 191 Jeremy Mincey LB Florida
6 205 Dan Stevenson G Notre Dame
6 206 Le Kevin Smith DT Nebraska
7 229 Willie Andrews CB Baylor

Look how that one ended up.

 

[patchick]

We have a great fissure between our first two picks

This keeps leaping out at me, too. BB has been very clear on wanting to avoid that kind of hole in a draft.

 

[WhiZa]

Look how that one ended up.

You're a glass half empty type of person?

 

[Robdude]

In this case he is a glass 1/10 empty type of person

 

[WhiZa]

In this case he is a glass 1/10 empty type of person

throw in Piere Woods, Corey Mays, Gemara Williams and make it 1/13th

 

[cstjohn17]

Look how that one ended up.

Fans (including me) tend to overrate the impact of any given draft, we see 8 draft picks and expect 3 starters and 5 backups. But in reality if you look back at a roster two years down the road and most draft picks have a 50/50 of being with the team.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Fans (including me) tend to overrate the impact of any given draft, we see 8 draft picks and expect 3 starters and 5 backups. But in reality if you look back at a roster two years down the round most draft picks have a 50/50 of being with the team.

I agree. We should get 2-3 solid starters by year 2 out of this draft with a few more special teams/backup contributors that add depth. Anything more than that is gravy.

However if I was a defnsive rookie, either draft pick or UDFA, this would be a good year to try and crack the Pats lineup.

 

[NePatriots]

Agree... first rounds should net you a starter year one, 2nd and 3rd round should net you a backup at least, developing into a starter, 4th round should get you a backup/special teams guy. Anything you get after that is just bonus.

 

[sebman2112]

Agree... first rounds should net you a starter year one, 2nd and 3rd round should net you a backup at least, developing into a starter, 4th round should get you a backup/special teams guy. Anything you get after that is just bonus.

If you're picking in the top ten then yes, a first year starter should be found with that pick. But, I wouldn't say all first rounders should be year ond starters, especially where NE is concerned, as they tend to ease guys into the system by having them backup, or rotate with vets.