Day 2 strategies last year and this year

[ctpatsfan77]

Here's an interesting question for you: last year, the Pats entered the draft with four late comp picks, and a fairly clear understanding that there would be no comp picks in 2008.

Yet, after taking Brandon Meriweather and then trading away four consecutive picks, the Patriots then used every single remaining pick on players that--to any rational observer--had little chance of making the roster.*

So, my question with respect to 2007 is this: which do you think is more likely, that this was the Pats' strategy entering the draft, or that they tried to trade into 2008, and just couldn't find any good offers?

And now, in 2008, the Pats enter the draft knowing that--in all likelihood--they will once again be flush with comp picks in 2009 (and even better than the ones in 2007). Do you think that will affect their utilization of the late picks?



*Yeah, I'm still bitter that the Pats lost Justin Rogers because of Belichick's older LB fetish. (Just what the hell did Chad Brown contribute that was more worthy of a roster spot? ) But it's not all that germane to my argument.

 

[BradyManny]

This is sort of the question I asked recently on the main board - looking at their roster, there's so much talent, there aren't many spots.

I asked if the strategy is then to draft players on Day 2 that have the potential to be every down players, but can contribute enough on special teams to knock players like Alexander, Ventrone, Eckel, etc. off of the roster?

 

[BelichickFan]

People can say what they want about the strength, or lack thereof, of last year's draft but I saw second day players contributing for the Giants in the one loss we had this season. There is no way to describe last year's second day as anything but an embarassment and I doubt Belichick and Pioli are happy with it. Maybe Richardson will show some upside this year; and Gutierrez may work out as a UDFA. But we can't be pulling that sh!t every year, it was horrible. Of course, when I say "last year's second day" that includes decicions made later like cutting Rogers and Brown; I'm talking about the end result of them all being gone.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

People can say what they want about the strength, or lack thereof, of last year's draft but I saw second day players contributing for the Giants in the one loss we had this season.

That's like arguing that John Hannah played guard for the Patriots back in the '70s, so he should be able to play guard for them today.

 

[DaBruinz]

People can say what they want about the strength, or lack thereof, of last year's draft but I saw second day players contributing for the Giants in the one loss we had this season. There is no way to describe last year's second day as anything but an embarassment and I doubt Belichick and Pioli are happy with it. Maybe Richardson will show some upside this year; and Gutierrez may work out as a UDFA. But we can't be pulling that sh!t every year, it was horrible. Of course, when I say "last year's second day" that includes decicions made later like cutting Rogers and Brown; I'm talking about the end result of them all being gone.

When people say this sort of garbage, I have to just LAUGH. It was only an embarrassment if you bury your head in the sand and ignore the fact that the Patriots had a stacked team going into the draft and then they made it even stronger with the additions of Meriweather and Moss. The Giants had HUGE holes on their team and HAD to have their 2nd day players contribute.

I've asked this question of EVERY single person who has *****ed about the 2nd day of the draft last year and NOT ONE has answered it. So I will ask you as well.

Who would YOU have drafted on the 2nd day last year? Which player(s) would they have beaten out to make the Pats roster and contributed?

BTW, why mention Brown? He made the team and it was only because of injuries to the TE position (Thomas going to the IR and Watson going down) that the Pats needed to cut him to make room for another TE.

I will agree that I didn't like the Pats cutting Rogers, but they did so to try and get him to the practice squad. Unfortunately, they didn't realize how well the Boys had scouted Rogers..

Now, lets be realisitic, also. Picks from the 4th round on have less than a 25% chance of making the roster to begin with. The Pats had some REALLY GOOD years, but they also had some bombs. 2001. 2004. 2007. To act like its a thing that happens every year isn't being realistic.

 

[BelichickFan]

That's like arguing that John Hannah played guard for the Patriots back in the '70s, so he should be able to play guard for them today.

No it's not, there were plenty of good players on day two - I used the shaky argument of the Giants but there were other good players who we all knew about who were productive and showed upside last year for other teams. However weak you want to say last year's draft was, you can't throw away an entire second day of a draft. I know we came out fine due the the trade for Moss, etc, but we have to do better than this :

4 Kareem Brown - Cut
5 Clint Oldenburg - Cut
6 Justin Rogers - Cut
6 Mike Richardson - IR
6 Justise Hairston - Cut
6 Corey Hilliard - Cut
7 Oscar Lua - Cut
7 Mike Elgin - Cut

Do you think Belichick and Pioli are happy with that ?

 

[BelichickFan]

I've asked this question of EVERY single person who has *****ed about the 2nd day of the draft last year and NOT ONE has answered it. So I will ask you as well.

Who would YOU have drafted on the 2nd day last year? Which player(s) would they have beaten out to make the Pats roster and contributed?

I can't answer that because 1) I usually only can handle learning the players 3-4 rounds deep, 2) just because a player could play for one team doesn't mean he could play for the Patriots and 3) the Patriots aren't going to get every sleeper in every draft.

However if you had Belichick and/or Pioli under a truth serum and asked if they were happy with how last year's second day went (after the Moss trade) I highly doubt they'd consider it a success.

 

[Clonamery]

No it's not, there were plenty of good players on day two - I used the shaky argument of the Giants but there were other good players who we all knew about who were productive and showed upside last year for other teams. However weak you want to say last year's draft was, you can't throw away an entire second day of a draft. I know we came out fine due the the trade for Moss, etc, but we have to do better than this :

4 Kareem Brown - Cut
5 Clint Oldenburg - Cut
6 Justin Rogers - Cut
6 Mike Richardson - IR
6 Justise Hairston - Cut
6 Corey Hilliard - Cut
7 Oscar Lua - Cut
7 Mike Elgin - Cut

Do you think Belichick and Pioli are happy with that ?

Where does your frustration lie? With the players chosen or the number of players or that they weren't good enough to make the squad?

 

[DaBruinz]

No it's not, there were plenty of good players on day two - I used the shaky argument of the Giants but there were other good players who we all knew about who were productive and showed upside last year for other teams. However weak you want to say last year's draft was, you can't throw away an entire second day of a draft. I know we came out fine due the the trade for Moss, etc, but we have to do better than this :

4 Kareem Brown - Cut Originally made the team. Was cut because they needed the Roster space due to injuries at TE and they had depth at DE already with Warren, Green, Wright, and Smith. probably would have been cut upon Seymour's return anyways.
5 Clint Oldenburg - Cut Was a longshot at best. Brought in to provide competition and depth.
6 Justin Rogers - Cut Pats tried to stash him on the PS. Cowboys had scouted him heavily.
6 Mike Richardson - IR Injuries happen. Saying that BB and Pioli aren't happy because of them is implying that they should have had some clairvoyant vision where they'd see it happen, yet took the guy anyways.
6 Justise Hairston - Cut A longshot to make the team.
6 Corey Hilliard - Cut A longshot to make the team, but probably disappointed that he showed up out of shape.
7 Oscar Lua - Cut He was IRed first before being cut after failing his physical. Injury could also be worse than first feared. See injury info on Richardson.
7 Mike Elgin - Cut Was one of the last players cut by BB and Pioli. Granted, they didn't try to get him onto the practice squad. But he was a 7th round pick. A true longshot.

Do you think Belichick and Pioli are happy with that ?

Why is everything black and white to you? Just because they aren't happy, it doesn't mean they are pissed off or anything. They know the draft is a crap shoot. Particularly in the later rounds. They had a FULL ROSTER prior to going into the draft. There have been plenty of rumors that have come out that the Pats DID try and make some trades (move up in the 3rd round for Bradley) or get picks into this year. Problem was that 4 of the picks weren't tradable.

When you have a roster like the Patriots did going into the draft, you CAN'T have expectations that your draft picks are going to all make the team. Its not realistic in any way, shape, or form. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats knew that the likelihood of more than 4 players making the team out of that draft was about 10%. Just because of the roster they already had.

 

[BelichickFan]

Where does your frustration lie? With the players chosen or the number of players or that they weren't good enough to make the squad?

Eventually, cutting an entire draft class except for one will catch up with you.

We've generally gotten some useful players in round 4 and later :

2000 - Brady (6)
2002 - Green (4), Givens (6)
2003 - Samuel (4), Koppen (5), Banta Cain (7)
2005 - Sanders (4), Cassell (7)
2006 - O'Callaghan (5), Smith (6), Andrews (7)

I know most of the good ones there were higher than round 6 where we had most of our throwaways last year but I refuse to call a draft even average when the entire class makes it less than 12 months on the roster other than the #1 and a guy who was on IR all year.

 

[BelichickFan]

Why is everything black and white to you? Just because they aren't happy, it doesn't mean they are pissed off or anything.

I didn't say Pioli should be fired, I just said that it was a bad draft because they've cut just about the whole class. It is what it is and it wasn't good. Hopefully it works out better this year.

 

[DaBruinz]

I can't answer that because 1) I usually only can handle learning the players 3-4 rounds deep, 2) just because a player could play for one team doesn't mean he could play for the Patriots and 3) the Patriots aren't going to get every sleeper in every draft.

However if you had Belichick and/or Pioli under a truth serum and asked if they were happy with how last year's second day went (after the Moss trade) I highly doubt they'd consider it a success.

Yet, I doubt they'd consider it a failure either. They'd say it is what it is. They drafted players to provide depth at positions where they were already deep to help provide competition and maybe find a diamond in the rough who could step up.

If you are going to ***** about the later rounds of the draft, then you either have unrealistic expectations of the later rounds or you don't understand the depth the Patriots already had.

This year should be different. The Patriots should have several players from later in the draft make the team. Mainly because there are more roster spots open. I particularly think that depth at OT, OG, LB, CB, and Safety will allow that.

 

[Clonamery]

I didn't say Pioli should be fired, I just said that it was a bad draft because they've cut just about the whole class. It is what it is and it wasn't good. Hopefully it works out better this year.

It was what it was for a 16-0 team.

 

[DaBruinz]

I didn't say Pioli should be fired, I just said that it was a bad draft because they've cut just about the whole class. It is what it is and it wasn't good. Hopefully it works out better this year.

You really shouldn't put words in my mouth. No where did I imply that you said Pioli should be fired.

It only a bad draft class if they cut almost the entire class and they were left scrambling to fill those spots at the end of training camp. Was that the case? No. The case was that the Patriots roster was already very deep, the Pats had 4 comp picks they couldn't trade, the Patriots tried to move up to get the players they wanted and couldn't, and drafted the best value available based on their value chart.

As a result, I consider it only a mediocre draft. Neither good nor bad. Especially when I take into consideration that they added Randy Moss and Wes Welker via trades. They also added a 1st and 3rd round pick in the 2008 draft.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I think last years draft says a couple things:
1-We didnt think the draft was very good
2-We put our team together on paper not by competition in camp!!
This is what I think will surprise people. I think they had their minds set on maybe all but 2-3 positions coming into camp. Now having extra players is good if you get mulitiple injuries at the same positions, but there is a definate class system being set up. I think BB could bring in rookies to compete for STs...but even if they have a higher upside, they will lose the time/effort that they have put into guys like Woods/Alexander/Andrews,etc..
I think another telling stat is the number of starters below the 4th rd in the BB era(Koppen,Givens). Now most teams will pick up specialists in the lower rounds to provide balance and eventual replacements, we use FA to do that. The star system we have asks the starters to do EVERYTHING, to be flexible to the point where we dont need specialists.

 

[cstjohn17]

I don't think it matters, picks after round 4 are nice for folklore but rarely produce starters.

This post does a good job of describing the percentages:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showthread.php?p=812919#post812919

Going 1 for 7 like they did in 2007 is a bit extreme. Ideally 1 of 2 of these players could come in and take the 50th-53rd roster spots to save cap money. Instead of paying a veteran 800,000 a cheap rookie could potentially perform at the same level for 200-300 K.

But the Patriots prefer trusted and elderly veterans and who can argue with the results. The 2007 team was one of the deepest and most talented teams in NFL history, certainly the best on paper team since free agency started. It was a once in a lifetime roster, in some ways they went for broke and were a play away from winning the whole thing. I expect 2008 to be more of a normal year with some spots at the end of the roster going to some scrappy new (cheap) faces.

 

[DocE]

I don't know how anyone can argue that the Patriots did not have a poor draft last year. Winning teams get core players from rounds 4-7, and the Patriots might have wiffed on 8 picks in those 4 rounds last season (depending on what happens with Richardson). It's clear by how they drafted that the Patriots wanted a minimum of one Olineman to make the 53 man roster from last years draft class...and they went 0-3 at the position.


The Patriots should get a lot of credit for turning a late 1st rounder last year in to a high first rounder this year and a late 3rd rounder last year in to a high first rounder this year.

I think anyone associated with the Patriots would say that they badly underperfomed on the 2nd day of the draft in regards to their picks. What if one of those 3 Oline picks turned out to be a stud guard who would have filled in for Neal in the Super Bowl? It's certainly not a stretch to find a good guard late in a draft.

 

[IcyPatriot]

This draft is so rich in RB's, WR's and CB's that I see Belichick trading down somewhere to pick up some extra 5th or 6th rounders. Then picking from the above categories and looking for some luck. Either way he seems to have switched ST philosophy and I think might be adding more speed to the unit which makes extra DB picks the best bet in the later rounds.

Also ... I forgot to add what is the difference between drafting OL and DL in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds vs FA invitees? There is little to no difference there. So I think he picks the skill positions in the later rounds and looks for some fat guys in the FA signees route ... the undrafted.

 

[captain stone]

I've asked this question of EVERY single person who has *****ed about the 2nd day of the draft last year and NOT ONE has answered it. So I will ask you as well.

Who would YOU have drafted on the 2nd day last year? Which player(s) would they have beaten out to make the Pats roster and contributed?

I have answered this questioned before, and I will answer it again.

In the first round, I would have taken either WILB the Poz or SILB David Harris.

In the 4th round, I would have taken OG/C Josh Beekman, CB Tarell Brown or FS Josh Gattis. Kareem Brown was not worthy, relative to who was still available, of the 127th pick and did not fill a position (DE) of need.

In the 5th round and the top of the 6th round, I would have taken 2 of OT Adam Koets, OG/C Doug Datish, SS John Wendling or CB David Irons.
Clint Oldenburg was/is a UDFA talent who had no business whatsoever being drafted in the 5th/6th rounds;
Justin Rogers would probably have been available with one of the late 6th/top 7th round picks.

In the bottom of the 6th/top of the 7th rounds, I would have taken 4 of Rogers, ILB Brandon Siler, TE Ben Patrick, RB Deshawn Wynn, DB Courtney Brown, ILB Kelvin Smith, P Brandon Fields, FB Jason Snelling, S Michael Johnson or Kareem Brown (if available).
Mike Richardson was an undistinguished CB on a bad Notre Dame defense, and was not even the best available ND DB (Chinedum Ndukwe);
there were a half-dozen RBs better than Justice Hairston who were still on the board;
Corey Hilliard would have been a better value risk with the 2nd 7th-rounder;
and Oscar Lua couldn't start for an admittedly stacked USC LB group.

In the bottom of the 7th round, I would have taken Brown or Hilliard if available; if not, then one of RBs Darius Walker, Selvin Young or Ahmad Bradshaw, FB Cory Anderson, WRs Brandon Myles, Rhema McKnight, David Ball or Syvelle Newton, TE Joe Newton, LT/G Gabe Hall, Gs Mike Jones or Nathan Bennett, DEs Xzavie Jackson or Mike DeVito, LB Justin Hickman, CBs Anthony Arline, Travarous Bain or Kenny Scott, SS Chad Nkang or FS Chinedum Ndukwe.
Mike Elgin wasn't even the best available OLman from his own school.

Does this answer your question, again?

 

[Metaphors]

Does this answer your question, again?

So now you have 8 or so new players in training camp. Who do you cut from the 53 to make room for them? How many of those 8 new players make it on the gameday active 45?