Clady, Ellis the keys?

[patchick]

We all like to talk about the Patriots trading down from #7, but realistically what you really have to ask is who would want to trade up, and why. Let's say the top 6 go something like this (I'm using Drew Boylhart's latest mock, fwiw):

1. Vernon Gholston
2. Chris Long
3. Matt Ryan
4. Glen Dorsey
5. Jake Long
6. Darren McFadden

To shell out the picks and $$$ to move up to #7, a team has to see a premier talent at a big-money position of need...and most of all, a big dropoff between that player and the next guy at the position. To me, there are just two guys who fill the bill: Clady and Ellis.

By my reckoning, teams picking 9-16 with a major need at DT & OT are (*=likely top priority):

9* - Bengals (DT)
10 - Saints (DT)
11 - Bills (DT)
12 - Broncos (DT, OT)
13* - Panthers (OT)
14* - Bears (OT)
15 - Lions (OT)
16 - Cardinals (OT)

Interesting, no? I really believe that every single one of those teams would take one of Ellis and Clady if they were available. Any thoughts on who might be willing to pull the trigger to move up?

 

[Crazyeechrispats1]

Like that synopsis this is very true,

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

If the mock draft went like that in no particular order, I would want to trade out as well and try to get Quinton Groves and two corners if their the best available players with the Pats second rounder and the next pick they get from the team willing to trade up. So my draft would look like this:

1st rounder: Groves
2nd rounder: CB or best available
2nd or third rounder (acquired from trade): CB or best available

So yes, Clady and Ellis could very be a factor of whether the Pats can trade out or not.

 

[Metaphors]

To shell out the picks and $$$ to move up to #7, a team has to see a premier talent at a big-money position of need...and most of all, a big dropoff between that player and the next guy at the position. To me, there are just two guys who fill the bill: Clady and Ellis.

By my reckoning, teams picking 9-16 with a major need at DT & OT are (*=likely top priority):

9* - Bengals (DT)
10 - Saints (DT)
11 - Bills (DT)
12 - Broncos (DT, OT)
13* - Panthers (OT)
14* - Bears (OT)
15 - Lions (OT)
16 - Cardinals (OT)

Interesting, no? I really believe that every single one of those teams would take one of Ellis and Clady if they were available. Any thoughts on who might be willing to pull the trigger to move up?

Agree on DT since there is a pretty good dropoff from Ellis to Balmer/Sims and a cliff after that. I think the Bengals would really want Ellis but might be inclined to stick and hope (they have big needs at LB and DE to fill as well). Denver is also a possibility but they seem to want Robertson. My best bet for going after Ellis would be Tampa. Let's say they swap #20 for #7 and give the Pats their 2009 #1 pick. Remember the 2009 draft is LOADED at ILB. The Bucs also have a chance to be reasonably bad this year so that 2009 pick could turn out to be hella sweet.

This draft is fairly deep at tackle (Otay, Williams, Baker, Cherilus) so I'm not sure anyone is going to be desperate to go after Clady. Maybe the Bears if they fall in love with Clady, but I'm not sold that will happen. The Lions at #15 would be ideal but I've got a feeling they already have "Mendenhall" written on their draft card.

I like discussing these types of possibilities. Mock drafts always get blown up by teams trading picks.

 

[Brad_Piff]

This draft is fairly deep at tackle (Otay, Williams, Baker, Cherilus) so I'm not sure anyone is going to be desperate to go after Clady. Maybe the Bears if they fall in love with Clady, but I'm not sold that will happen. The Lions at #15 would be ideal but I've got a feeling they already have "Mendenhall" written on their draft card.

Ive heard on more then one occasion Carolina absolutely loves Clady

 

[patsfaninpa]

Carolina has an extra 3 from the K.Jenkins trade too. Wouldn't they be interested in S.Ellis too? J.Peppers had a lousy year. I think they could consider a DL. Chicago and Minny have extra 3's from draft day trades last year. Detroit has one for S.Rogers. Another key is that all of these teams are in the NFL. It wouldn't bother me a bit if the player they drafted worked out great. Just makes a team willing to trade in the future with us.


I don't think Mendenhall is going to last until the Detroit pick. I think he is a real wild-card in this draft. Especially, with the latest news on J.Stewart injury. If the Saints dont think Deuce is healthy, they could use a bigger back. That would allow them to use R.Bush in the role he is best suited for. Receiver/change of pace back. Like his rookie year.

 

[Handel]

One thing sure, I want neither of them.

 

[BelichickFan]

I would have no problem taking Clady. Of our options, he - by far IMO - fits need (Kaczur could be upgraded), safeness (not changing position like the OLB conversions) and a generalized Belichick mantra (middle of the field, near the ball) more than CB. I understand the last one is a big generalization but it's my post

I would have no problem with Eliis except I don't know where we'd play him. He should attract some trade talk, though, if he's there at #7.

 

[DaBruinz]

Agree on DT since there is a pretty good dropoff from Ellis to Balmer/Sims and a cliff after that. I think the Bengals would really want Ellis but might be inclined to stick and hope (they have big needs at LB and DE to fill as well). Denver is also a possibility but they seem to want Robertson. My best bet for going after Ellis would be Tampa. Let's say they swap #20 for #7 and give the Pats their 2009 #1 pick. Remember the 2009 draft is LOADED at ILB. The Bucs also have a chance to be reasonably bad this year so that 2009 pick could turn out to be hella sweet.

This draft is fairly deep at tackle (Otay, Williams, Baker, Cherilus) so I'm not sure anyone is going to be desperate to go after Clady. Maybe the Bears if they fall in love with Clady, but I'm not sold that will happen. The Lions at #15 would be ideal but I've got a feeling they already have "Mendenhall" written on their draft card.

I like discussing these types of possibilities. Mock drafts always get blown up by teams trading picks.

Just a point of information, The 2009 draft is NOT loaded with ILBs. Laurenitus, Maualuga, Beckwith, and Philistin. And they are spread across the top 3 rounds right now.

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

If McFadden is on the board. Trade the pick to Dallas for Bobby Carpenter and both of their first rounders. Then draft Talib with one of the picks, and Groves with the other.

 

[everlong]

Mayotte swears KC will draft Otah if Long is gone because they feel he is more their type of O-Lineman than Clady. I find that a really big reach but you never know and it could be huge for the Pats if that happens.

 

[BelichickFan]

Mayotte swears KC will draft Otah if Long is gone because they feel he is more their type of O-Lineman than Clady. I find that a really big reach but you never know and it could be huge for the Pats if that happens.

If they want to get a serious run blocker in for LJ, it's probably the way to go. No use drafting a pass blocker when you have a ****ty QB

 

[DW Toys]

If McFadden is on the board. Trade the pick to Dallas for Bobby Carpenter and both of their first rounders. Then draft Talib with one of the picks, and Groves with the other.

Best idea I have seen in a long time but McFadden will be snagged by the Rats at #6. The only way is if they fall in love with Gohlston or one of the Longs drop to them.

DW Toys

 

[patchick]

If McFadden is on the board. Trade the pick to Dallas for Bobby Carpenter and both of their first rounders. Then draft Talib with one of the picks, and Groves with the other.

This has been the hot trade projection for either the Jets or Pats for months. In fact, the mock I quoted had the Jets making the exact trade you outlined, which is how McFadden goes #6! Personally, I think everybody is reading a little too much into stray comments by Jerry Jones (made before McFadden's character concerns started making headlines). But if they do want to pull that trigger, the Jets are the natural partner. They'd leap at it in a minute and they can make a much more credible threat to take DMC themselves.

Anyway, the original post presumed that McFadden is gone...so what's your trade scenario at #7?

 

[BelichickFan]

Anyway, the original post presumed that McFadden is gone...so what's your trade scenario at #7?

My trade scenario is not to trade, draft Clady and build the best pass blocking OL we can now that Brady is in his low 30s.

 

[patchick]

My trade scenario is not to trade, draft Clady and build the best pass blocking OL we can now that Brady is in his low 30s.

Clady is my fall-back pick at that position too. Starting back when the SF pick was projected as a top-5, I've said that the only positions I see as worth a high #1 for this team are LT and OLB. But I'd rather have Quentin Groves and an extra pick than Clady, which is why I'm still thinking trade.

 

[DaBruinz]

If McFadden is on the board. Trade the pick to Dallas for Bobby Carpenter and both of their first rounders. Then draft Talib with one of the picks, and Groves with the other.

Groves won't last until the 22nd pick. That's part of the problem. Talib should be there at 22.

Anyways, the draft is going to be interesting.

 

[Metaphors]

Just a point of information, The 2009 draft is NOT loaded with ILBs. Laurenitus, Maualuga, Beckwith, and Philistin. And they are spread across the top 3 rounds right now.

Laurinaitis, Maualuga and Beckwith are all 1st round picks (probably top half). When was the last time you saw 3 that high? If Spikes comes out (likely) he is in that mix as well.

Sean Lee will likely play at least some ILB for PSU this year. Brian Cushing is an OLB but has the build and skill set to play ILB for the Pats. They are both 1st round picks.

I guess "loaded" is in the eye of the beholder...but I can't remember ever seeing that many 1st round quality LBs in a single draft before.

 

[BritPat]

Maualuga is my binky.

Have to say, he might have gone top 10 had he come out this year.

 

[Seneschal2]

Any thoughts on who might be willing to pull the trigger to move up?

12 - Broncos (DT, OT)
13* - Panthers (OT)
14* - Bears (OT)
15 - Lions (OT)
16 - Cardinals (OT)

I think there's a sincere interest for Clady by teams 13 and 14...not sure about the Broncs at 12, or any of the others listed. With so many teams in succession needing an OT (will take your word for it), makes sense for at least one to attempt to leapfrog someone, and deal with the Pats.

I won't be surprised if the Pats take Clady, as he's only one of two I think we'd consider at 7. But if protecting Brady seems to be the order of the day, I'd still trade down, acquire extra picks, and select OT Chris Williams. He's consistently ranked as the 3rd best OT overall, while some scouts feel he may be the best pass blocking tackle in the draft.

Of course the listed teams could also take Williams, or even Otah rather than trade up for Clady. My suggested scenario only works if one team is enamored with Clady, and by nature, most teams do get attached to specific players.

If Clady's gone by #7, we better hope that someone wants McFadden, Ryan, or Ellis.