Re: If the Pats are Banking on Moss Giving them a Last Chance to Match....
Stallworth's deal is closer to $4.5-5M per with $10M in guarantees. That is far less than what Branch got. Berrian's deal is 6 years $42M but with $13M in guarantees it's really closer to a $6.5M deal or just about what Branch (and Wayne) got 2-3 years ago. Players get more up front money on long term deals. Both of these guys are not the elite talent Randy is, but they are also 3-4 years younger.
Deals today are all about the first three years. That is the standard by which they are measured once the agent driven early hype/spin gives way to the reality of the contract terms. Florio was opining on his site last night that if Berrian got $13M guaranteed Randy should get $20-30M... That is not the way it works. His age and length of contract and presumed future production, not what he did last season, are what will determine what his deal entails. If some GM decides to overpay based on what he did here, it is what it is. I don't think that will happen for a lot of reasons. Randy is not a good value on a 4 or more year deal because too many bad things can happen in that span of time that can change his attitude/impact perceptibly.
Teams don't like to be used to leverage other teams. GM's have their own short and long term team goals to accommodate. Perhaps Jerry Jones is intrigued by a potential pairing of TO and Randy, but he also has to deal with the reality that 34 year old TO is in the last year of a 3 year deal that only averaged $8M, that he is thinskinned and competitive to the point he will need to be at least on par with Randy where paychecks and touches are concerned, and that Wade is a lame duck HC who could be overwhelmed by a lot less than trying to balance those two egos in one clubhouse, not to mention young Romo having to placate two divas and a productive TE. They have placated TO in part up to now by treating/embracing him as the defacto leader of the team. What happens when one outshines the other or one drops a pass the other felt he was wide open for...or God forbid they sign a RB from Arkansas to create further buzz.
In Greenbay Brett is entering his last season, unless he decides not to. They have a solid core of young receivers who will be catching passes from Aaron Whatshisname in the forseeable future. They don't need a Randy Moss as anything more than a one and done sidebar to Brett's swan song season.
Indy - as if Polian's adversity to FA spending weren't enough, they are just $4M or so under the cap unless they restructure the combined $31M cap hits of Manning and Harrison. And with an opt out of the CBA looming, those contracts remain a killer unless Manning is restructured via extension PDQ. Harrison, who signed a heavily salary and bonus backloaded deal in his mid 30's is presently an $8M dead cap hit so if they push much of his 2008 salary forward he will remain that for 2009. The last two big ticket players he acquired through FA and pricey trade were one and done in Indy. And in the end they won a ring without either.
Jacksonville was a logical alternative for a lot of reasons, but they already moved to sign Porter to a $30M deal. They may have cap, but they lag way behind in cash. NO with Brees would be a possibility, but they too lack cash and that would likely not be the best environment for a player who has had issues. SD is another team with lots of cap and little cash - one reason they build through the draft - not to mention lots of egos they are already struggling with, and a QB who may not be ready to go before the season commences.
I think most of the speculation is just that, media driven story lines based as much on a media that wants to see something else happen other than Randy remaining in NE.
Aside from Fitzgerald, who only landed in a cap killing contract situation because the Cardinals ownership is almost patholocically inept, Marvin Harrison is the highest paid WR in the league by contract at $9M per and he averaged just under $11M per in his first 3 seasons and will average just under $10M per after 4 if in fact he is able to return after missing almost all of the third year of his deal. Marvin is not as elite a talent as Randy, but he had been consistent performer in Indy prior to last season. And his deal was largly incremental with just a $6M signing bonus and $19M in unguaranteed roster bonuses against low salaries over the first 3 seasons of a 7 year deal he will not finish.
If the Patriots offer to Randy was 3 years $30M with $12-13M in guarantees, I think it is a fair market offer. Maybe you bump the bonus money up by a couple of million in exchange for a 4th phony backloaded salary season for amortization purposes. But you don't do something stupid because even as this little situation unfolding has shown, Randy remains a potential high risk as well as potential high reward player to have to count on. Smart coaches and organizations tend to make critical judgements based less on potential than consistency and track record. Mediots create story lines by over hyping players and situations.
