Re: Samuel looking for $30 million guaranteed
LMAO!!!! I just typed up this big thing based on the 8/80/22M guaranteed Clements deal last year. What the hell, I'll put it here anyway... Bear in mind that the posture of 10/100/30 is pure bullcrap, a first bargaining position.
I was trying to post the following and timed out, back when I thought he only wanted 8/80/22 -
We have absolutely no idea where this guy's head is at. We continually pretend that we do.
It's all a big if-then: IF he wants absolute top dollar, THEN he's gone. IF he can handle "Getting Rich To This," with the "This" being a reasonable contract for a very good, but not game-changing cornerback, THEN he stays.
I love to argue this crap as much as anybody and I hate to be a wet blanket, but we just have no idea.
Indications thus far have been that he is more than willing to play hardball (see 07 holdout threats,) and has no compunction about who he pi s s es off in pursuit of his goals. We forget, however, that his goal was an assurance of no serial-franchise-tag.
At the same time, his statement that Clement-like money was necessary to retain him could have been real, or could have been an opening posture.
We know the math on a Clement-like deal... it might not bankrupt us this year, and it would be an 8-year deal with at least some vanity money nobody will see in the last year or two... but it would end up putting the Pats on the hook for years to come. How much of a hook has to do with how it would be structured... but you know he'll want guaranteed money in the $22M range (hence the Clement starting point,) with somewhere in the neighborhood of 80M promised in the deal.
The guarantee will work out to a $2.5M dead money hit (if it's a simple amortization) per year we cut him early. The actual salary will make the total hit in same range we paid him as a franchised player last year, $8M/annum, for each year we keep him. That's the rough, 'order-of-magnitude' calculation on a Clement-like deal, assuming a whopping 30M in vanity money in years 7 and 8 - and by the way, skipping those 2 years costs us $5M in dead money:
20M amortized bonus(es) = 2.5 a year
2 M year 1 salary = 2M; total for year 1 = 4.5M
Yr. 2-6: amortization = 2.5
Yr. 2-6 sal. (avg.) = 5.6M
Avg. Annual hit: $8.1 M
Total paid by year 6: 2M sal., yr 1 + 28M yr2-6 +20M bonus = 50M
Year 7 and 8: Avg 15M/year salary he will not get, for total 80M
So, for the priviledge of wriggling out (if push comes to shove,) we pay $5M in dead money, with Asante gone after yr. 6
Granted, all of the above is plugging in random numbers, and derived from an imaginary and greatly simplified version of the contract he's said he's seeking. I can not emphasize this enough - I'm just a guy with a calculator, not a cap maven. But it seems like these are something like the rough neighborhood numbers we're talking about.
SO... is the above or something like it his real position, or the starting point from which we determine his real position? Can we rewrite some of his money in the form of incentives (playing time, INT.s, team wins, etc...?) Does he put any value on Super Bowl contention?
On the other side, if the 8/80/22 formula is his real position, can we afford it? Yeah sure. Is he worth it? The guys in the FO can judge that better than any of us. And yeah okay, it would have helped his case to basically secure our super bowl and 19-0 season with that non-interception. But it doesn't hurt it THAT much - he is the player he is. He makes the play X% and misses it Y%. So that one play, in a big game, is more important than say the equivalent in week 5. But not THAT much more important.
If he takes, say, 16M in guaranteed money, over 6 years, total contract value = 60M, that puts him in the same titular 10M/year APY territory as Clement, for bragging rights. But look what else happens:
Yr. 1 signing bonus = 14M
Yr. 1 salary = 2 M (= total 16M guaranteed);
$4.33 M cap hit (2.33M amortization + 2M sal.)
Yr. 2-3 2.33M/yr amort. + avg sal. $4.5M = $6.83 M cap hit/yr
Yr. 4 2.33M amort. + sal. $8M = 10.33 M cap hit: a doable year, but probably time to think about a new deal from the Pats' POV.
Yr 5 2.33M amort. + sal $10M = 12.33M cap hit - probably never happen
Yr 6 2.33M amort. + sal $17M = 19.33M cap hit - mythical year
Any way you slice it, the 10M APY deal gets exhorbitant eventually, IF the player is retained for the entirety of the deal. Of course, most players will restructure or ink a new deal before that happens, because they know the last year or two are always inflated.
In the above scenario, the team gets hit with 2 vanity years worth of dead money, (total 4.66) if it comes to it. Still far from something you wish to happen, but it's the worst case.
In exchange, they get Asante's services in years 1-4 for very liveable cap costs, except the 10.33M year 4. The Pats would end up shelling out 34M for 4 years, real cash money, with 4.66M dead money hitting the cap in the 5th year if they cut Samuel.
Real cap guys can correct me on these grossly simplified back-of-the-envelope calculations.
If Samuel can live with guaranteed $ bragging rights only approaching Clements', with the APY figure matching Clements, we can get 4 years' service, Samuel can get 34M real cash money plus a claim to a $10M/yr APY deal, and we can have annual cap hits of 4.33M, 6.83M, 6.83M and 10.33 M.
So, worst case (no new deal) scenario, he hits the cap in the area of 5M, 7M, 7M, 10M, 5M (dead money in yr 5 when cut.) 34M gets you 4 productive years (plus the dead money hit).
Okay. Enough mental masturbation. any or all of the numbers could be way off for the way these deals eventually get cut. The only point here is, the structure leaves you on a big hook at 22M guaranteed, and of course a smaller one at 16M guaranteed... translating to smaller cap hits, and a smaller dead money hit for cutting the guy prior to the vanity years.
Naturally, that's not in Asante's interest. I just typed up a lot of numbers to basically say, it all depends if Asante wants to be able to SAY he got the best deal of any corner in the league, or if he truly believes he must GET the best deal of any corner in the league.
Does he put any value on SB contention? That's the big question.
I don't think we can compete with those teams willing to mortgage 6 or 7 years' of pretty high cap hits to keep the guy on-board. But we can make him an offer that sounds great in the press and makes him look good, and doesn't leave him anywhere near the poorhouse.
'Nuff said, or more like way, way too much said.
PFnV
