2007 1st-round pick contract numbers

[patchick]

Cstjohn17 posted this in an earlier thread; I'm giving it its own thread and sticky for reference purposes.

All Salary data from http://www.rotoworld.com/
# Team Player Pos Length Total Contract Average Cap Comments
1 Oakland JaMarcus Russell QB 6 $61.00 $10.17 $7M available in incentives
2 Detroit Calvin Johnson WR 6 $55.00 $9.17
3 Cleveland Joe Thomas OT 5 $42.50 $8.50
4 Tampa Bay Gaines Adams DE 6 $46.00 $7.67
5 Arizona Levi Brown OT 6 $62.00 $10.33 The deal includes $18.1 million in guarantees.
6 Washington LaRon Landry FS 5 $41.50 $8.30
7 Minnesota Adrian Peterson RB 6 $40.50 $6.75
8 Atlanta Jamaal Anderson DE 5 $31.00 $6.20
9 Miami Ted Ginn Jr. WR 5 Unknown Unknown $14M guarantees
10 Houston Amobi Okoye DT 6 $15.40 $2.57
11 San Francisco Patrick Willis ILB 5 $16.65 $3.33
12 Buffalo Marshawn Lynch RB 6 $18.90 $3.15
13 St. Louis Adam Carriker DE 5 $12.80 $2.56
14 N.Y. Jets Darrelle Revis CB 6 $30.00 $5.00
15 Pittsburgh Lawrence Timmons OLB 5 $12.00 $2.40
16 Green Bay Justin Harrell DT 6 $14.50 $2.42
17 Denver Jarvis Moss DE 5 $15.00 $3.00
18 Cincinnati Leon Hall CB 5 $13.60 $2.72
19 Tennessee Michael Griffin FS 5 $7.50 $1.50
20 N.Y. Giants Aaron Ross CB 5 $13.50 $2.70
21 Jacksonville Reggie Nelson FS 5 $9.55 $1.91
22 Cleveland Brady Quinn QB 5 $9.20 $1.84
23 Kansas City Dwayne Bowe WR 5 $9.00 $1.80
24 New England Brandon Meriweather FS 5 $8.75 $1.75
25 Carolina Jon Beason OLB 5 $12.50 $2.50
26 Dallas Anthony Spencer DE 5 $9.00 $1.80 $6M guarantees
27 New Orleans Robert Meachem WR 5 $11.30 $2.26
28 San Francisco Joe Staley OT 5 $8.00 $1.60
29 Baltimore Ben Grubbs G 5 $8.00 $1.60
30 San Diego Craig Davis WR 5 $7.83 $1.57
31 Chicago Greg Olsen TE 5 $7.77 $1.55
32 Indianapolis Anthony Gonzalez WR 5 $7.50 $1.50

 

[patsfaninpa]

Great idea. This will come in handy after free-agency starts. When we see what our cap situation is going into the draft.

 

[Jacs_10]

I just don’t see BB giving a rookie a 40,5 mill contract. That’s not going to happen. The more I look at the number, the more I am convinced, pats will trade down to around the 15 pick. A pick to keep away from is the 14. pick, because Darrelle Revis got a big contract by the Jets because of his holdout.

 

[nittanylions52]

I just don’t see BB giving a rookie a 40,5 mill contract. That’s not going to happen. The more I look at the number, the more I am convinced, pats will trade down to around the 15 pick. A pick to keep away from is the 14. pick, because Darrelle Revis got a big contract by the Jets because of his holdout.

First of all, not every guy who is picked at 14 will hold out just because Revis did. If any guy holds out, he'll generally get the money. It's just a matter of what his attitude is, or maybe his agent's stubbornness.

Secondly, trading down requires two teams to agree. I'm not sure why people think the Pats will so readily be able to trade out of the #7 pick. A lot of teams are going to look at what happened with San Fran and they won't bother wanting to trade up to #7, especially since it would cost a decent amount to do so (probably a future first rounder).

 

[chunkypony]

Yea, I don't think the Pats are staying at 7....

 

[Miguel]

The problem with these numbers is that some total numbers presume that the player will reach a good number, if not all, of his escalators and some do not.

 

[Miguel]

If you wish to see the 1st year cap hit for the last two 1st round draft classes,
visit
http://www.patscap.com/1stround.gif

 

[PatsFaninME]

Secondly, trading down requires two teams to agree. I'm not sure why people think the Pats will so readily be able to trade out of the #7 pick. A lot of teams are going to look at what happened with San Fran and they won't bother wanting to trade up to #7, especially since it would cost a decent amount to do so (probably a future first rounder).

I totally agree that it takes two teams but every year there are teams that feel they are one player away and they teams that fall in love with certain guys. Plus there are coaches/GM's who feel they may not be around in a year or two if they don't win now. That's why trades happen. If everyone was as comfortable as Belichick/Pioli, then nobody would trade up.

Just watch the Tuna, for example. He knows he's not going to be there in 3 years so he's going to try to make a name for himself by turning a 1-15 team into a playoff team in 2 years. He'll sell his teams future (ehich he won't be part of) for the present. He's done it with other teams (Jets) and will do it again. Mark my words.

I too think the Pats will find takers to move down. They may not find suckers like the Ravens of 49ers of the past 2 years but they will find reasonable offers to move down. I can't see them spending that much cash on a CB and only Gholston is even close to worth the money a #7 pick will get (and I;m not sure he's worth it). I think they will move down a few times to eliminate the "punishment" of losing the 31st pick.

 

[NePatriots]

Once again Miguel, you are the man. Anywhere out of the top 10 will be great and we will still get our top needs filled.

 

[cstjohn17]

If you wish to see the 1st year cap hit for the last two 1st round draft classes,
visit
http://www.patscap.com/1stround.gif

Pretty cool, do you have any idea on what the futures years look like? Capology is like science gone mad.

 

[Miguel]

Pretty cool, do you have any idea on what the futures years look like? Capology is like science gone mad.

All I know is that the max that the rookie pool can go up is 5% a year. Last year it went up only 2.5%. Also a draft pick's minimum salary went up 3.5% (285,000 to 295,000).

 

[cstjohn17]

All I know is that the max that the rookie pool can go up is 5% a year. Last year it went up only 2.5%. Also a draft pick's minimum salary went up 3.5% (285,000 to 295,000).

I meant more in terms of what the future years contracts look like for a specific draft class, the salaries often start small and then escalate.

 

[Miguel]

I meant more in terms of what the future years contracts look like for a specific draft class, the salaries often start small and then escalate.

The problem with that doing that analysis is that some players sign extensions and that some players are no longer in the league. Look at the 2004 draft. A couple of first rounders (Big Ben, Fitzgerald) from that class have signed extensions and a couple of first rounders (Carroll, Woods) are no longer in the league.

 

[NePatriots]

I hope we get creative with our 1st round pick's contract... we need to push some money onto next years cap.

 

[patfanmike]

Moderator, can you start this topic as a new thread?
I don't have enough posts to start a new thread. If I was able to do so I would title it What would you Give to trade down?

All Salary data from rotoworld.com

# - Team- - - - Player - - - - - - - Pos - Len- - Total- - Contract Average - Cap Comments
1 - Oakland - - -JaMarcus Russell - QB - - 6 - - $61.00 - $10.17 - - - $7M available in incentives
2 - Detroit - - - Calvin Johnson - - WR - - 6 - - $55.00 - $9.17
3 - Cleveland-- -Joe Thomas - - - -OT - - 5 - - $42.50 - $8.50
4 - Tampa Bay - Gaines Adams - - -DE - - 6 - - $46.00 - $7.67
5 - Arizona - - - Levi Brown - - - - OT - - 6 - - $62.00 - $10.33 - - - The deal includes $18.1 million in guarantees.
6 - Washington- LaRon Landry - - -FS - - 5 - - $41.50 - $8.30
7 - Minnesota - - Adrian Peterson- -RB - - 6 - - $40.50 - $6.75
8 - Atlanta - - - Jamaal Anderson- -DE - - 5 - - $31.00 - $6.20

eg: This year the Dolphins would like to trade down but no-one wants to pay what the #1 choice will cost. If you were BP what draft choice(s) would you Give to trade down to the #2 selection, #3, #4? Last year that move would have given Oakland another $1M cap room to spend on a veteran free agent.

Last year #7 (Minn) to #8 (Atl) was $.5M in cap space savings and $9.5M saved in salary to an unproven rookie. If you were BB what would you be willing to Give to move from #7 to #8? Would you give a 7'th round dc or 6'th round choice to save $9.5M and $.5M cap space so that we have more money to sign another experienced UFA or RFA?

 

[DW Toys]

The problem with that doing that analysis is that some players sign extensions and that some players are no longer in the league. Look at the 2004 draft. A couple of first rounders (Big Ben, Fitzgerald) from that class have signed extensions and a couple of first rounders (Carroll, Woods) are no longer in the league.

I don't completely understand this and I got a stern lecture from the CEO and President of the New England Patriots Forums "Mr. DaBrunz". I understand that Peterson (last years #7) was given a six year contract of $6.75mm and a total $40.5 mm contract. My question to you is, lets say that LB Suggs from Ravens will agree to a contract to play here if the Ravens will trade him for our first round #7. Lets say he wants a contract for $7.5mm-$8.2mm. Will the Patriots be better off to pay the difference of the $6.75mm to the $7.5mm for a proven product rather than spend those kind of dollars on a gamble in the long run at least CAP wise? You don't have to comment on the trade idea if you don't want. I just want to see if the million or so difference hedges the bet.
DW Toys
I love it when DaBrunz is strict with me.

 

[stinkypete]

No doubt, if the money is similar, you trade the pick for a proven commodity (Suggs) over taking a talented project like Gholston.

On a similar note, if the team wanted a $40 million CB, Asante would never have left town.

Interesting how much the cost drops at #10. I'd be aggressively presuing a trade with the Saints to move down to #10. The Saints are said to be interested in Sedric Ellis, and it is very reasonable that Ellis would land with Cincy otherwise. I say take the short end of the value chart, move down a few spots and pick up some depth.

 

[Miguel]

I don't completely understand this and I got a stern lecture from the CEO and President of the New England Patriots Forums "Mr. DaBrunz". I understand that Peterson (last years #7) was given a six year contract of $6.75mm and a total $40.5 mm contract. My question to you is, lets say that LB Suggs from Ravens will agree to a contract to play here if the Ravens will trade him for our first round #7. Lets say he wants a contract for $7.5mm-$8.2mm. Will the Patriots be better off to pay the difference of the $6.75mm to the $7.5mm for a proven product rather than spend those kind of dollars on a gamble in the long run at least CAP wise? You don't have to comment on the trade idea if you don't want. I just want to see if the million or so difference hedges the bet.
DW Toys
I love it when DaBrunz is strict with me.

See
http://www.patscap.com/adrianversusadalius.png

Personally, I prefer the unproven rookie.

 

[The 12th Man]

Interesting how much the cost drops at #10. I'd be aggressively presuing a trade with the Saints to move down to #10. The Saints are said to be interested in Sedric Ellis, and it is very reasonable that Ellis would land with Cincy otherwise. I say take the short end of the value chart, move down a few spots and pick up some depth.

Wow, you were right on. And almost a full month prior to the draft. Amazing.

 

[Patriot Missile]

The only pick from last season after 10 that sticks out like a sore thumb is Darrel Revis. 30mill and 5 mill bonus. Wow.! I know he probably won't see all of it,but still......