Schilling could be lost for season

[Real World]

This could be a big loss if true.

Schilling could be lost for season


By Tony Massarotti
Thursday, February 7, 2008 - Updated 3m ago

Sports columnist Tony Massarotti has been a must-read for years in the pages of the Boston Herald.

Roughly a week before pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training in Fort Myers, the Herald has learned today that Red Sox [team stats] right-hander Curt Schilling [stats] has a significant shoulder injury that could end the veteran’s season and is causing tension and friction between the player and the team.

While neither Schilling nor Sox officials could be reached for comment, baseball sources have indicated that the club has at least inquired about the possibility of voiding the one-year, $8 million contract Schilling signed last November. It is not known to what lengths the Sox have gone on the matter, but their threat has been serious enough to create a conflict between Schilling and the Red Sox.

While the precise nature of Schilling’s injury is not known, it is believed that the right-hander is suffering from an injury to the rotator cuff and/or labrum that might require surgery. It is possible that the sides disagree on how to treat Schilling’s ailment and that a course of treatment, too, is a part of their disagreement.

If Schilling has surgery on his shoulder, it is almost certain that he would be unable to pitch this season.



http://bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1071967&srvc=home&position=1

 

[patsfanofNC12]

You beat me to it, here is another link for it http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/02/07/schilling_sidelined_with_more_shoulder_issues/

This would mean that Wake and Buchholz started, but it would be a devistating blow to our starting rotation.

 

[LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks]

Worst week ever?

 

[STFarmy]

Yeah this is no good. Too much campaigning for McCain did him in.

How's the pitching situation looking on the Yanks RW?

 

[sdaniels7114]

I don't understand how this happens now. How can his shoulder be worse now than it was in October?

 

[reflexblue]

I don't understand how this happens now. How can his shoulder be worse now than it was in October?

I think it had something to do with lifting wgts, which he wasn't suppose to do. And it was after he signed his contract,he informed the sox within the lst week or two. At least thats what I thought i heard on eei this afternoon.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Every Schilling start replaced by a Buchholz start is a probably a net positive. Every start replaced with a Tavarez, Snyder, Hansack, or Pauley start is a sizable negative. Considering Buchholz will be limited by innings and would have made some starts anyway this could really hurt. Let's pray the starting five stays healthy.

Even if you assume you'd get only 160-180 innings at a 4.25 ERA from Schilling that isn't easy to replace and is better than you can expect from the replacements.

It doesn't hurt as much as it would hurt most teams to lose their #3 starter because of the depth the Sox have. It definitely hurts when the team thought it had 6 quality starters and could afford to baby the young guys.

At least we're only counting on two kids in the rotation and not three .

 

[patsfanofNC12]

We haven't lost him for season, just most likely until all-star break, no surgery needed

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/02/07/schilling_sidelined_with_more_shoulder_issues/

 

[Real World]

Yeah this is no good. Too much campaigning for McCain did him in.

How's the pitching situation looking on the Yanks RW?

Similar to the Sox. Strong at the top, young questions in the middle, and a Social Security recipient at the end.

I actually got into a debate about this with some friends today. I said that the two rotations, as of right now, on paper, were a wash. My buddy (Sox fan) said the Sox was better. To me, it could end up being better, but they look pretty similar in make up and overall quality.

Wang vs Beckett

Pettitte vs Dice K

Hughes vs Lester

Chamberlain vs Buckholz

Mussina vs Wakefield

** Kennedy could be in there somewhere for the Yanks

Anyhow, they look like a toss up, regular season wise. Beckett is the clear ace come playoff time, but in terms of regular season production, Wang isn't too far behind. It should be an interesting year.

 

[patsfanofNC12]

I think Mussina is a little worse off than Wakefield is at the time.

 

[Real World]

I think Mussina is a little worse off than Wakefield is at the time.

Based on last year I certainly agree, but people tend to forget that Mussina was 4th in the American League in ERA the year before last, or 2006, when he went 15-7 with a 3.51 & 8.46 hits per 9 IP. He hurt his hamstring early last year, like half the team, and I think it affected his velocity. He was throwing 85-86 all year long, as opposed to 89-91 the year prior. While the drop in mph could have simply been due to age, I think it's conceivable that Mussina could bounce back & have a decent year if the hammy was his problem. We'll see. I have my doubts. If I had to pick, I'd say it's more age than anything though. Mussina is also in a contract year which bodes well for the Yankees. All in all, we're talking 5th starters for both teams. Guys who would be expected to have an ERA somewhere in the 4.50 range to be considered productive.

 

[Foley]

I think the one thing that gives the Sox the advantage in the rotation is that both Hughes and Chamberlain pitched only about 110IP last year. They may be very good next year, but unless the FO wants to gamble with their long term health they should only pitch around 140IP each (Hughes maybe a little more since he already threw around 140IP in 2006, but not a whole lot more). Kennedy will probably be a much bigger factor than those two because he pitched about 160IP last year. The same holds true for Lester and Buchholz, but they each pitched about 150IP last year, so they're ahead of the game in terms of being stretched out.

As far as the top of the rotation, Wang is nice, but he owns a career 4.62ERA and 1.45WHIP away from home. Beckett had a sizable home/away split too, but not nearly as bad as Wang's.

After the month of May, Pettitte had a monthly ERA under 4.76 just once. Granted, that one month was when he went 6-0 with a 2.36 and (I believe) was AL pitcher of the month, but he was pretty bad in 3 of the final 4 months of the season. In that same time span (final 4 months of the season) Matsuzaka finished with an ERA over 4.45 just once in a month.

And this may be blatant fanboyism (although most projections like ZIPS, Fangraphs and PECOTA agree with me), but Matsuzaka is a decent bet to improve on his 2007 performance, while Pettitte is likely to decline from his.

 

[Real World]

I think the one thing that gives the Sox the advantage in the rotation is that both Hughes and Chamberlain pitched only about 110IP last year. They may be very good next year, but unless the FO wants to gamble with their long term health they should only pitch around 140IP each (Hughes maybe a little more since he already threw around 140IP in 2006, but not a whole lot more). Kennedy will probably be a much bigger factor than those two because he pitched about 160IP last year. The same holds true for Lester and Buchholz, but they each pitched about 150IP last year, so they're ahead of the game in terms of being stretched out.

As far as the top of the rotation, Wang is nice, but he owns a career 4.62ERA and 1.45WHIP away from home. Beckett had a sizable home/away split too, but not nearly as bad as Wang's.

After the month of May, Pettitte had a monthly ERA under 4.76 just once. Granted, that one month was when he went 6-0 with a 2.36 and (I believe) was AL pitcher of the month, but he was pretty bad in 3 of the final 4 months of the season. In that same time span (final 4 months of the season) Matsuzaka finished with an ERA over 4.45 just once in a month.

And this may be blatant fanboyism (although most projections like ZIPS, Fangraphs and PECOTA agree with me), but Matsuzaka is a decent bet to improve on his 2007 performance, while Pettitte is likely to decline from his.

Innings are obviously going to be capped for the youngters on both sides. Kennedy should be near 190-200, Hughes threw 146 in 2006, so it'll be interesting to see what they do with him and last years 116. My guess is that they'll stretch him a bit to the 180 range. Joba is interesting. He tossed 127 in 2006, and 116 last year. Maybe 150 for him? I've been saying the Yankees should look into signing a rehabbing vet like Freddy Garcia, or even Kris Benson as insurance. The Sox might be well inclined to do the same. The one luxury, if you call it that, which the Yankees do have, is 6 starters. Plus, that is their strong suit in the minors. They've got a lot of good arms in AA & AAA. I never look at that as a certifiable plus because of how unpredictable minor league arms always are.

Pettitte had 3.85 ERA after the Allstar break. He would have had a sub 4 ERA had he not given up 8 runs in his last start of the season. By contrast, Dice-K was 5.16 post Allstar. You're spinning the numbers in Dice-K's favor. He was 4.45 in August and 7.72 in September. It's more about a 162 game season, and pre/post allstar than it is about months. IMO. I understand what you're saying though. My only point is that going into the 2008 regular season (not playoffs where Beckett is lights out and Wang struggles), the two rotations are pretty comparable overall. Wangs struggles on the road are irrelevent to the overall production in a season. 19 wins and a 3.6ish ERA are 19 wins and a 3.65 ERA. He's had back to back identical seasons so it's a safe to say he should end up with the same this year.

 

[Real World]

And this may be blatant fanboyism (although most projections like ZIPS, Fangraphs and PECOTA agree with me), but Matsuzaka is a decent bet to improve on his 2007 performance, while Pettitte is likely to decline from his.

PECOTA stats are kinda dumb in a sense. They project far too conservatively for individual statistics, and maybe too liberally with respect to records. They say the Yankees are going to win 103 games & the Sox 101, yet they don't have a starter winning more than 12 games on the Yankees. I think they had Wang going 12-8 to lead the team. They have the Yankees scoring 960 runs, yet no .300 hitter, and only one player with more than 20 homers (AROD at 36). Josh Beckett 14 wins to lead the team, yet 101 wins for the Sox?

http://yanksfansoxfan.typepad.com/ysfs/2008/02/projecting-the.html

 

[Foley]

Innings are obviously going to be capped for the youngters on both sides. Kennedy should be near 190-200, Hughes threw 146 in 2006, so it'll be interesting to see what they do with him and last years 116. My guess is that they'll stretch him a bit to the 180 range. Joba is interesting. He tossed 127 in 2006, and 116 last year. Maybe 150 for him? I've been saying the Yankees should look into signing a rehabbing vet like Freddy Garcia, or even Kris Benson as insurance. The Sox might be well inclined to do the same. The one luxury, if you call it that, which the Yankees do have, is 6 starters. Plus, that is their strong suit in the minors. They've got a lot of good arms in AA & AAA. I never look at that as a certifiable plus because of how unpredictable minor league arms always are.

180IP for Hughes is a lot. I know that he threw 146 two years ago, but a jump of 60+IP from one year to the next is pretty big, especially at his age.

Pettitte had 3.85 ERA after the Allstar break. He would have had a sub 4 ERA had he not given up 8 runs in his last start of the season. By contrast, Dice-K was 5.16 post Allstar. You're spinning the numbers in Dice-K's favor. He was 4.45 in August and 7.72 in September. It's more about a 162 game season, and pre/post allstar than it is about months. IMO. I understand what you're saying though.

And the fact that it can be easily spun in either direction shows that the two weren't far off. Pettitte had a 4.84ERA the final 3 months of the season, Matsuzaka had a 5.05ERA the last 3 months. There wasn't a huge disparity between them as the season went on. I didn't mean my post to sound like I was saying Matsuzaka was better than Pettitte in 2007, just that they both had ups and downs, and had fairly comparable seasons.

My only point is that going into the 2008 regular season (not playoffs where Beckett is lights out and Wang struggles), the two rotations are pretty comparable overall. Wangs struggles on the road are irrelevent to the overall production in a season. 19 wins and a 3.6ish ERA are 19 wins and a 3.65 ERA. He's had back to back identical seasons so it's a safe to say he should end up with the same this year.

Its not irrelevant. When a pitcher is an ace at home (2.75ERA) and well below average on the road (4.91ERA) its a big hole in their game. It may all average out to be decent production, but theres a difference in being good, and being great half the time and horrible the other half. Consistency is a quality that shouldn't be brushed off as irrelevant.

PECOTA stats are kinda dumb in a sense. They project far too conservatively for individual statistics, and maybe too liberally with respect to records. They say the Yankees are going to win 103 games & the Sox 101, yet they don't have a starter winning more than 12 games on the Yankees. I think they had Wang going 12-8 to lead the team. They have the Yankees scoring 960 runs, yet no .300 hitter, and only one player with more than 20 homers (AROD at 36). Josh Beckett 14 wins to lead the team, yet 101 wins for the Sox?

http://yanksfansoxfan.typepad.com/ysfs/2008/02/projecting-the.html

I'm not a huge fan of PECOTA or most other projection systems, but when almost all of them are in complete agreement on something then I tend to put some validity in it. And every projection I've looked at has Matsuzaka having a better year than Pettitte (although there very well may be others that show the contrary, I just haven't seen them).

And its difficult to project records for pitchers because W-L is almost completely reliant on the rest of the team. Only 3 pitchers (Sabathia, Santana and Peavy) are projected by PECOTA to win over 14 games, and they all have nearly identical records (15-8, 16-8, 15-8). Projections are really only useful in terms of actual performance stats, not records.

 

[Lifer]

This could be a big loss if true.

Schilling could be lost for season


By Tony Massarotti
Thursday, February 7, 2008 - Updated 3m ago

Sports columnist Tony Massarotti has been a must-read for years in the pages of the Boston Herald.

Roughly a week before pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training in Fort Myers, the Herald has learned today that Red Sox [team stats] right-hander Curt Schilling [stats] has a significant shoulder injury that could end the veteran’s season and is causing tension and friction between the player and the team.

While neither Schilling nor Sox officials could be reached for comment, baseball sources have indicated that the club has at least inquired about the possibility of voiding the one-year, $8 million contract Schilling signed last November. It is not known to what lengths the Sox have gone on the matter, but their threat has been serious enough to create a conflict between Schilling and the Red Sox.

While the precise nature of Schilling’s injury is not known, it is believed that the right-hander is suffering from an injury to the rotator cuff and/or labrum that might require surgery. It is possible that the sides disagree on how to treat Schilling’s ailment and that a course of treatment, too, is a part of their disagreement.

If Schilling has surgery on his shoulder, it is almost certain that he would be unable to pitch this season.



http://bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1071967&srvc=home&position=1

Well, thank goodness we didnt trade any youngsters to get Santana. Pheeewww, that was a close call

 

[patriotspride]

the sox have coco to trade. they will figure out something .i love schill but its not the end of the world.

 

[Real World]

180IP for Hughes is a lot. I know that he threw 146 two years ago, but a jump of 60+IP from one year to the next is pretty big, especially at his age.

And the fact that it can be easily spun in either direction shows that the two weren't far off. Pettitte had a 4.84ERA the final 3 months of the season, Matsuzaka had a 5.05ERA the last 3 months. There wasn't a huge disparity between them as the season went on. I didn't mean my post to sound like I was saying Matsuzaka was better than Pettitte in 2007, just that they both had ups and downs, and had fairly comparable seasons.
Its not irrelevant. When a pitcher is an ace at home (2.75ERA) and well below average on the road (4.91ERA) its a big hole in their game. It may all average out to be decent production, but theres a difference in being good, and being great half the time and horrible the other half. Consistency is a quality that shouldn't be brushed off as irrelevant.


I'm not a huge fan of PECOTA or most other projection systems, but when almost all of them are in complete agreement on something then I tend to put some validity in it. And every projection I've looked at has Matsuzaka having a better year than Pettitte (although there very well may be others that show the contrary, I just haven't seen them).

And its difficult to project records for pitchers because W-L is almost completely reliant on the rest of the team. Only 3 pitchers (Sabathia, Santana and Peavy) are projected by PECOTA to win over 14 games, and they all have nearly identical records (15-8, 16-8, 15-8). Projections are really only useful in terms of actual performance stats, not records.

The 60 IP jump could be a lot. That's why it will be interesting to see how the Yankees handle him. If it were up to me, I'd choose to skip starts for youngsters, as opposed to limit innings per start. When you limit innings per start, you hurt your bullpen. Let the kids pitch 7 innings+ if they can, and then skip a start here or there. Teams don't really do that though. They only let the kids pitch 6 innings, or go 100 pitches max. It should be interesting to see what the Yanks do with him never the less.

Numbers can always be manipulated to look better or worse depending on the POV. We're pretty much on the same page though with respect to Andy & Dice K.

I will disagree though regarding the relevency of splits when discussing season long numbers & production. In the end everyone plays 162 games. If Wang is lights out at home, and awful on the road, but consistently a 19 game, 220 IP, 3.6 ERA pitcher when the 162nd game is over, then that's what matters. If your giving awards, or judging the individual quality of a player, then road, home, day, AL, NL, etc. splits would be more important. That's why regular season and post season are two different animals. The Yankees are a softball team built to win in the regular season, which they do. The Sox are built for the playoffs, and they've shown that over the last handful of years.

It's just hard for me to take those individual projections seriously when they have the Yanks winning 100+ games and no pitcher winning more than 12. Whatever their system might be, I can't take their individual projections at face value when that happens. To me, common sense would say that Dice K, younger, and with a year under his belt in the majors, should have a much better season than last year, while Pettitte, a year older, should be somewhere near last year, or slightly worse. The variable though is that Dice K isn't a traditional pitcher that comes up from the minors. He's a pro from Japan in another country & league, so we don't know if that's a benefit or not. Will he be harder to hit the second time around, as he gets more comfortable, and understands american baseball better, or will he be easier to hit, since teams have seen him. I'd like to think he'd be better this time around, but we just don't know. I think he's got excellent movement on his pitches, but that his fastball is average at best. He was advertised as a consistent 96 mph, and he's really not. I'm curious to see how he performs this season. He could be like Beckett in 2006. Always with that bad inning, only to figure it all out the next year. We'll see though.

 

[groundgame]

They were going to go very lightly with Schilling even if he was healthy. The Sox know his true value comes after Labor Day. The Sox probably would have had Schilling go under the knife if the second opinion doctor from the NY Mets had not also agreed that rest was better than surgery.

 

[QuinielaBox]

I'm afraid this is it for the Schill. Good career Schill, time to give it a rest or be an assistant pitching coach.

The burden will shift to Matsuzaka as the number 2.

Tavarez and Wakefield will be inning eaters this year.