If you try to make an argument for the Giants using straight-up
reasoning, you really can't come up with one. Cold Hard Football
Facts has demonstrated that, statistically, this is the biggest
mismatch in Super Bowl history. I won't duplicate their article, but
you can check it out here:
http://coldhardfootballfacts.com/Art...tch_of_the_Cen...
Here are my reasons for why the Patriots will win, and then the
argument for how the Giants *can* win. First, for the Patriots:
1. Extra preparation time. Since 2001, the Patriots are 12-1 after a
bye week, with the only loss being a 24-16 loss to Denver in 2002, the
worst year New England had over that span. This includes a 6-0 record
in the playoffs, including two Super Bowl victories (the win over the
Rams did not include a bye week in-between the AFCCG and SB). The
average score of the Patriots' games after a bye week is: NE 26.3,
Opp 13.8 - an average margin of victory of 12.5 ppg. In the playoffs,
the average score is: NE 23.3, Opp 16.7 - an average margin of
victory of 6.6 ppg. And that's over the top competition the NFL has
to offer. Meanwhile, the Giants under Tom Coughlin are 1-3 after a
bye week, with an average score of: NYG 16.3, Opp 19.5 - an average
margin of -3.2 ppg. It seems, then, that the advantage of having a
bye week is clearly in the Patriots' favor. Now, this doesn't even
take into account the present situation of: (a) the Giants' momentum
being slowed by an extra week off, and (b) the need for Brady's ankle
to get a little better. Overall, this is a huge plus for the
Patriots, not the Giants.
2. The prospect of the legacy. I know this can be spun both ways:
for the Giants, they are playing with "house money" (so the experts
say) with nothing to lose, so they'll be loose and fired up, ready to
go; meanwhile, the Patriots will feel all the pressure of playing for
the undefeated season and they'll be tight. Here's all I have to say
about that: never, not one time, have the Patriots, during the
Belichick/Brady era, lost a playoff game they were favored to win.
Not one time. The only two playoff losses they have suffered were
both road games when they were underdogs. In every single other
playoff game where they were the heavy, they did what the favorite is
supposed to do: win. They don't always cover the spread, but then
again, who cares? I'm not betting on the game, so I could care less
if they win by 1 or 51. They just win. The pressure obviously does
not get to these guys. Yes, they'll have "pressure" this week, but at
this point, both the Pats and Giants are playing for the Lombardi
Trophy. Guys like Strahan know that this is their last shot at a
title, and you better believe they'll feel it just as badly as New
England will. You mean to tell me that if the Giants are down by 5
with 5:30 to go and Eli has the ball at his own 17 yard line, that he
won't feel the pressure of the moment? He may not give in to it, but
he won't sit there and think, hey, we're the Giants, we're not
supposed to win, so who cares? Let's just have fun guys! No, he'll
understand the gravity of the moment. If the Giants lose, they'll be
just as disappointed as the Pats would be if they lost. Losing the SB
must stink under any circumstances. The Giants are playing for a
Lombardi, just like the Pats, but the Pats know they can cement their
legacy for all-time with a win here. That's not extra pressure; it's
added motivation.
3. The Patriots are, in fact, the "hotter" team. Despite what experts
say, the Patriots are the hottest team in the league. The Giants
boast a winning streak of 3 games; the Patriots boast a winning streak
of 18 games. The Giants have defeated 3 playoff teams in their last 3
games (TB, Dal, GB) by an average score of 22.7-17.0, for an average
margin of +5.7. Meanwhile, the Patriots have defeated 3 playoff teams
in their last 3 games (NYG, Jax, SD) by an average score of 30.0-22.3,
for an average margin of victory of +7.7. I wasn't a math major in
college, but to me, 7.7 > 5.7. The last month, the Patriots are
beating playoff teams by *more* points than the Giants are.
4. They have better players and the better coach. No need to run
through the rosters or give the resumes of Coughlin and Belichick. BB
is considered (with good reason as he has numerous SB rings) to be the
best coach in football today. Coughlin is good, for sure, but he's
not in the same league as Belichick. As far as the players go, the
Pats have the best QB, the best WR, the best left side of the
offensive line (I'd run left all day behind KBrady, Light, Mankins,
and Koppen), the better secondary, the better D-line (although New
York's is very good), the better kicker, and more. In short, their
personnel is much better, and it's coached by a better coach. When
the Pats beat the Rams, the Rams had better personnel, but the Pats
had the better coach. When the Giants beat the Bills, the Bills had
the better personnel, but the Giants had the better coach. In this
matchup, the Patriots have the better personnel *and* the better
coach. Doesn't guarantee a victory, but it sure helps.
Now, here's how the Giants *can* win the game:
1. Pressure Brady with their front four. If you consistently blitz
Brady, you'll get burned badly. But if you can drop 7 into coverage
and get pressure with just four, now you're in business. Fortunately
for the Giants, they are a team that generates tremendous pressure,
especially from their defensive line. Light has trouble with speed
guys, and Umenyiora is a speed guy. They don't have to sack Brady,
but if they're constantly in his face, they can cause major problems.
Their defense isn't a turnover-generating defense, but they can force
bad throws and lots of incompletions. Maybe they can get a pick or
two as well.
2. Make sure Jacobs and Bradshaw run well. The Pats don't tend to get
run over too often, but the Giants have the ability to pound away and
get big plays from their running game. And once they have that going,
they could hit the Pats with #3 below.
3. Throw medium-to-deep in-cuts all day long. The Patriots seem to
have lots of problems with these types of passes, and the Giants have
three guys who can exploit this: Burress, Toomer, and Boss (a good
receiver for a TE). I can envision lots of play-action to Jacobs and
Bradshaw, leading to 13-16 yard in patterns to these guys. I can
envision big chunks of yardage carved up by Eli if he has time to
throw.
4. Get a big special teams play. Hixson averaged 24.8 yards a return,
and we all remember the TD he scored against the Patriots the last
time they met. You can never count on special teams touchdowns, but
it would be huge if the Giants could get one of those. If not a TD,
at least a big return or two to get deep into New England territory.
5. Win the turnover battle. If the Giants force a Brady pick and
maybe get a Faulk fumble, and manage to hold onto the ball themselves,
they can alter field position or maybe even get a defensive score.
Again, you can't count on these things, but given how Eli has played
(turnover-free), I can imagine New York winning the turnover battle.
If those things happen, the Giants can win a game something like 31-30
or 30-27. Even if everything goes right for them, I cannot imagine a
Giants blowout win. I *can* imagine a blowout Patriots win, but I
think the most likely scenario is a Patriots win between 3 and 10
points.
Therefore, my official prediction is this: Patriots 31, Giants 24.
(also posted in the Patriots newsgroup: a.s.f.p.n, and in another thread in this forum)
However while I think we will see some running by the Giants. If they are really going to go for the WIN, I think we will have to see more passing from the Giants...just like they did in week 17. IIRC they had way more passing yds than rushing yds.
