Key to beating NE - "Be patient"

[richpats]

I've watched the Pats escape defeat 4 times this year and I'm amazed how the 4th quarter plays out every time. They all follow a similar pattern of events. If I were an opposing coach, here's what I'd focus on if I wanted to beat NE:

1. Be patient on defense - NE will move the ball, but stopping them in the red zone will keep the game close. They had 4 scores in the 1st half Saturday, but 3 were FG's and they found themselves down 12.

2. Be patient on offense - NE will allow a team to move the chains if that team is patient enough. Take advantage of NE's red-zone D. The Giants went 4-for-4 scoring TD's in the red zone Saturday.

3. Be patient in the 4th - don't go for the kill on a big play, NE has forced a takeaway in each of those games, all on passing plays. Keep moving the chains but don't become predictable. Mix up runs and short passes.

4. Be patient that NE will make a mistake - those 4 games all had plays that came at the expense of NE's mistakes: Addai's 73-yard TD, Philly's onside kick recovery, the 53-yarder on 3rd down in Baltimore and the Giants big pass play early, along with the kickoff return for TD. The Pats focus on 3 things: protecting the ball on offense, preventing big plays on D and error-free special teams play. If they slip in any of those areas, that will give their opponent a chance.

 

[Truck]

1. How do you propose a team stop them in the red zone? If a team was able to stop them in the red zone with any degree of certainty, wouldnt they also be able to stop them outside the red zone?

2. okay

3. Unfortunately if you go for only runs and short passes, NE will bring 8 in the box and the DBs close to the line

4. okay



So in conclusion; your keys to winning the game:
1. Prevent NE from scoring TDs and limit to FGs
2. Score TDs instead of FGs
3. Don't make mistakes
4. Score when NE makes a mistake


Damn you should be hired as a coach!

 

[richpats]

1. How do you propose a team stop them in the red zone? If a team was able to stop them in the red zone with any degree of certainty, wouldnt they also be able to stop them outside the red zone?

Bend-don't-break, that's about as close as you can get. San Diego has a comparable defense - they allow TD's but they also can force turnovers.

3. Unfortunately if you go for only runs and short passes, NE will bring 8 in the box and the DBs close to the line

Granted, but a good o-line or a team that had a running QB could do some damage. Garrard is that type of QB.

So in conclusion; your keys to winning the game:
1. Prevent NE from scoring TDs and limit to FGs
2. Score TDs instead of FGs
3. Don't make mistakes
4. Score when NE makes a mistake

Damn you should be hired as a coach!

I think some teams try to hard to STOP New England when they only need to worry about BEATING New England. It would likely be a high-scoring, one-possession ballgame and a team has to prepare for a 60-minute battle. I think some teams want to beat NE with only 50-55 minutes of great play.

 

[SmokeShowin]

Someone leaked the blueprint!

 

[hwc]

The Giants had 18 yards rushing in the first half.

First half time of possession:

Pats 20:00
Giants 10:00

The fourth quarter script was already written at halftime. The Giants defense was too gassed to be patient. The shot their wad early.

 

[DaedalusX]

The reality of the situation is that unless you have a fool-proof means, through talent and game planning, of keeping the Pats from scoring in under 2 minutes at will, while guaranteeing you can score in under 2 minutes at will, and do all of this for a full 60 minutes without making a mistake, you will not beat the Patriots.

I think teams have spent too much time trying to bring the Pats offense down to earth and not enough time planning on and planning to win a shootout. Unless you can find a way to score as fast as the Pats can, at will, and control the clock strategically -- in terms of when you possess the ball, not how long you possess the ball -- you will lose.

In short, you need to be able to match the Pats in scoring and plan to have the ball last. That requires excellent pre-game planning and in-game coaching, and a quarterback who can control the clock to perfection. That's why Indy is the only team capable of competing with this team. And I don't think Dungy and Peyton are as good at this as Belichick and Brady.

 

[psychoPat]

Quite an interesting topic, of course.
How Can You Beat Me?

Doing so obviously requires special circumstances to come together.
What strikes me about all those close games is
the opponents' powerful QB play.

Put Peyton aside ... maybe Romo too.
But what ever did possess Feeley ... Boller ... and Eli
to play so out of their minds, so far beyond their normal competence?

 

[NYPatsFan]

I've watched the Pats escape defeat 4 times this year and I'm amazed how the 4th quarter plays out every time. They all follow a similar pattern of events. If I were an opposing coach, here's what I'd focus on if I wanted to beat NE:

1. Be patient on defense - NE will move the ball, but stopping them in the red zone will keep the game close. They had 4 scores in the 1st half Saturday, but 3 were FG's and they found themselves down 12.

2. Be patient on offense - NE will allow a team to move the chains if that team is patient enough. Take advantage of NE's red-zone D. The Giants went 4-for-4 scoring TD's in the red zone Saturday.

3. Be patient in the 4th - don't go for the kill on a big play, NE has forced a takeaway in each of those games, all on passing plays. Keep moving the chains but don't become predictable. Mix up runs and short passes.

4. Be patient that NE will make a mistake - those 4 games all had plays that came at the expense of NE's mistakes: Addai's 73-yard TD, Philly's onside kick recovery, the 53-yarder on 3rd down in Baltimore and the Giants big pass play early, along with the kickoff return for TD. The Pats focus on 3 things: protecting the ball on offense, preventing big plays on D and error-free special teams play. If they slip in any of those areas, that will give their opponent a chance.

Thank you John Madden. Boom!

 

[Crazyeechrispats1]

Don't you know we can't be beat in fair play?
Do you pay attention to tv at all?

 

[FrontSeven]

1. Be patient

I think you're right. I also think that you cannot artificially manufacture patience. It has to be earned and cultured over time.

You have to have confidence before you can be patient.

You have to have success before you can be confident.

You have to win big games in the fourth quarter repeatedly before you can have success.

The way I see it only Indy has the type of patience that the Pats have. They have the only two QBs that can stare down any defense in any situation with time expiring and not make mistakes. That's partly where their patience comes from, and I think other teams rattle just knowing about that. They can talk patience all they want but under the pressure of the clock and staring at the Patriots on the other side, they rattle. And they should. That's their job.

 

[richpats]

Just wanted to take a look at the playoff games with respect to the "Keys to beating NE". Scoring on a 0-1 scale (0=failed, 0.5=even, 1=success).

1. Jax allowed 4 TD's in 6 red zone trips. Not good. Only a botched FG and a Welker drop prevented this game from being 38-20. San Diego didn't fare any better, 3 TD's in 4 trips, but did force a turnover to keep themselves in the game.

Jax: 0
SD: 0

2. Jax was good in the first half, 2/2; second half, 0/2. San Diego failed miserably, 0/4.

Jax: 0.5
SD: 0

3. Both teams were non-existent on offense in the 4th quarter. Jax had 3 points but also a pick. San Diego ran 4 plays in the 4th.

Jax: 0
SD: 0

4. NE missed a FG, gave up a big 4th-down conversion against Jax. SD picked Brady off 3 times, but never did anything big on special teams or offensively.

Jax: 0.5
SD: 0.5

So if victory depends on success in all 4 areas (i.e. a score of 4.0), the Jags only scored a 1.0 while San Diego had a 0.5. Here's how I'd score the Giants' performance in Week 17:

1. 0.5 (did well in 1st, lousy in 2nd)
2. 1.0 (did well all game)
3. 0.0 (the pick killed them)
4. 0.5 (hit big plays in the 1st half, quiet in the 2nd)

So the Giants had a 2.0, and the Pats pulled away after a scare.

Here are the conclusions I can draw from our last 3 games:

The Pats will not be held out of the end zone all game, an opponent MUST score at least 4 TD's to win.
If you want to beat the Pats, you better do well offensively in the 4th.
The Pats do make mistakes, just not over the course of the whole game.
The Pats' red zone D is much better than it has been all year.

 

[Watson's IQ]

Here are the conclusions I can draw from our last 3 games:

The Pats will not be held out of the end zone all game, an opponent MUST score at least 4 TD's to win.
If you want to beat the Pats, you better do well offensively in the 4th.
The Pats do make mistakes, just not over the course of the whole game.
The Pats' red zone D is much better than it has been all year.

Interesting analysis. My takes on your updated conclusions:

1. Agreed. I find it very hard to believe that the Giants will hold the Patriots under 30 given the week off and the conditions, etc, unless Brady's ankle is more serious than we think. If the Giants want to win, they need to put up AT LEAST 4 TDs.

2. This would seem to be a given, but we've seen too many teams late in the season go into what I like to call the "OMG we're beating (or hanging tough with) the Patriots! shell" The ultimate example, of course, is Norv calling that punt on 4th-and-10 trailing by 9 in Pats territory in the fourth quarter. Seems to me that this strategy is hinged on the Patriots somehow coughing up the win, which is not a winning strategy. Of course, it's happened, and no one needs me to recount the instances, but if I were the Giants I wouldn't be hanging my SB hopes on it. Really, you'd like to say "be aggressive in the 4th quarter", but then look what happened during the Eagles game (and the first Giants game) with the late turnovers. So I guess you need to be "aggressive AND smart in the 4th quarter." Exactly two quarterbacks can do that consistently - Brady and Manning (not this Manning, thankfully).

3. I think what you're trying to say here is that while the Pats commit turnovers, they aren't the game-changers you might see from other teams. I think that this is probably more a product of the results of the game, because I'm telling you right now that the three Brady picks in the AFCCG seemed pretty significant at the time. In hindsight, sure, they didn't spell disaster, but it didn't make them any less big at the time. One thing to be glad about - the Patriots almost never fumble.

4. Well, it would certainly have been hard for it to be much worse than it was early in the year. But I agree, if we played RZ defense all year like we did in the SD game, the "greatest team ever" debate would be over. That said, in the Jax game Garrard made a couple of red zone TD tosses that made my stomach curdle. Thankfully, I think Eli is more Rivers than Garrard (and I don't mean that in a good way).

 

[richpats]

Interesting analysis. My takes on your updated conclusions:

.....

2. This would seem to be a given, but we've seen too many teams late in the season go into what I like to call the "OMG we're beating (or hanging tough with) the Patriots! shell" .....

3. .... I think that this is probably more a product of the results of the game, because I'm telling you right now that the three Brady picks in the AFCCG seemed pretty significant at the time. .....

.....

2. I call it the same thing, teams become "self-aware" of what they're doing and then blow it.

3. Maybe it was because SD wasn't really threatening on offense, I saw those picks as annoying, like "oh come on already, let's finish this thing". Worst case, even if SD had found the end zone after one of those picks, NE would have been down 7 at most.

The thing that scares me the most is fumbling, or lack thereof. It hasn't been a problem ALL season, and I guarantee if the Pats somehow lose Sunday, they will have at least 3 fumbles.

 

[Fixit]

You know what this reminds me of? A scene in a movie where a guy's running from a monster, only there's a locked door, and he has the bigass key ring, and he keeps trying key after key, and none of them work, and then he finds the right key, but before he can use it...BAM! Headless.

 

[Watson's IQ]

You know what this reminds me of? A scene in a movie where a guy's running from a monster, only there's a locked door, and he has the bigass key ring, and he keeps trying key after key, and none of them work, and then he finds the right key, but before he can use it...BAM! Headless.

In all seriousness, that's just about the most perfect analogy for trying to beat the 2007 Patriots that I've heard all year. Hope you don't mind if I steal that one.

 

[Fixit]

In all seriousness, that's just about the most perfect analogy for trying to beat the 2007 Patriots that I've heard all year. Hope you don't mind if I steal that one.

Be my guest.

 

[spacecrime]

Patience. A lot of patience. It make take years, but eventually the tide may turn.

If I were an opposing coach, here's what I'd focus on if I wanted to beat NE:

1. Be patient on defense - In four or five years, Seymour, Wifork, Warren and Green will all be gone.

2. Be patient on offense - Brady is thirty. Surely in 10-12 years you stand a chance of beating him.

3. Be patient in the 4th - If you aren't up by at least 30 points in the fourth, just give up this game as lost. Be patient. One of these years you'll be up so high in the fourth that the Pats won't bed able to come back and beat you.

4. Be patient that NE will make a mistake - just realize they will beat you anyway because you will be making three mistakes to their one

 

[richpats]

You know what this reminds me of? A scene in a movie where a guy's running from a monster, only there's a locked door, and he has the bigass key ring, and he keeps trying key after key, and none of them work, and then he finds the right key, but before he can use it...BAM! Headless.

My take would be opening the door, and then discovering the monster on the other side then BAM! Headless.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Patience is NOT how you beat the Patriots. The Giants only hope is for Brady to aggrivate his injuries. They gotta do a whole lot of praying and hoping.

If that doesn't happen, they would have to get aggresive and kidnap Brady. Or maybe just run him over in the parking lot.

 

[Metaphors]

Patience is how you try to keep the game close and claim a moral victory.

To win you need to have 3 distinct gameplans...one for the first half, one for the 3rd quarter and one for the 4th quarter.

In the first half, you need plays that are different that what you would normally do. You also need to involve different players than just your stars.

In the 3rd quarter, you need to play physical. Big blocks and big hits. Can't let the game turn into a track meet.

In the 4th quarter, you tell your kicker and punter that their services will no longer be required (at least until the 2 minute warning). Call plays with the intention that you are using 4 downs to get 10 yards. Getting a TD and a turnover on downs is better than a FG and a punt.

This takes guts. Coaches are much more comfortable following a conventional gameplan to keep it close and hoping to get a few breaks (officials, lucky bounce, etc.) to get them the win.