Jeffbiologist's Mock draft V1

[jeffbiologist]

The senior bowl just ended so I figure this would be a great time to put a Mock up. For draft pick standings I uses nfldraftscout.com's new listings, but I am sure they are changing all the time. Until the combine, my gut on these guys wont change much.

Free Agent Re-signings

Moss-our #1 off season priority. I think this will be his last contract, he will give us a small hometown discount in exchange for years...5/35M with our option on 10M the last year.

Gaffney-3/7M of so should be fine for a #2-3 guy

Seau-1/minimum-he has gas left in tank

Paxton-1/minimum-havent found a position player to replace yet

Mitchell-3/3M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him more valuable

Woods-3/5M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him valuable too

T.Brown-1/1M- year off leaves him in great shape, multi positonal backup

GONE

Bruschi retires- great guy, great career

Samuel- just too costly

Wright-replaced by draft pick

Gay- I think someone will offer him more than we can

Stallworth- Cap casualty, should catch on somewhere easy(hope not jets)

Washington- too $$ for ST guy

K.Brady- cap casualty not worth 3M

Wilson- writing on wall when you go from starter to not dressing

RENEGOTIATING

Colvin- 2nd most important offseason move. FA and draft moves based on his health and acceptance of a paycut. 3M in dead money is going to hurt if he is cut, 7.5M is just too much for a 1 dimensional player(as good as he is a playmaker). Redone to 3/10-12, ??$$ guaranteed.

It would be a good time to extend both Brady and Wilfork as well

FREE AGENTS


ILB L.Foote-3/7M- another Pittsburgh LB castoff that flourishes a few years(hopefully).

CB-D.Florence-a great #2 CB pickup. He kept Cromartie on the bench a year and a half, that says alot.

CB-C.Scott-resigned for 1/2M- the guy knows our system and we hope he can stay healthy this time.....

TRADES

#7 to Chicago for #14 and #45

#14 then to Dallas for their #22 and their 2nd

Our 2(63) for say ATL(2) in 09


DRAFT

1(22)- T- Sam Baker-USC--best value of the linemen left on board, can play both guard and tackle

2(45)-CB A.Cason--best CB left, Cromartie shouldnt drop this far, Mckelvin and Jenkins drop Cason to 2nd rd.

2(60?)-DT-- Red Bryant-Texas A&M--upgrade over Wright and should push Vince in a contract year. Gives us negotiating leverage, by far the best NT this year.BIG. Great motor in senior bowl.

3(68 from Oakland)-OLB--S.Crable-Michigan--outside rusher, project but Michigan background and age help here. Luxury pick really.

3(95)-TE-Cottam-Tenn-- looks like the real deal in the senior bowl. Not much experience but great size, liked the way he used his hands too.

4(120?)-SS-Wesley Woodyard-Kentucky- This guy is a ball hawk,playmaker, nose for the ball but without the big hit. Could learn from Rodney.

5(150?)-ILB-Goff-Vanderbilt--kinda doubt he will be here but scoutsinc says he should,lol. We do need bodies here, hoping someone will turn out smart..

6(180?)-WR Arrington- Michigan--big reciever with decent speed.

7(210?) CB Ikegwuonu-Wisconsin-likely wont be here, blew out his MCL last week but we put him on IR and hope to get 1st round talent cheap, nothing to lose really....

7(230?)Compensatory-P-Dragosavich-N.Dakota St-- our punter continues to cost us field position, this guy looked great in the senior bowl setting a record.

DEPTH CHART

QB- Brady/Gutierrez/Cassel(looking for GUT to win backup role)
RB- Maroney/Morris/Faulk/Evans/Eckel or FA
TE- Watson/Thomas/Cottam
WR- Moss/Gaffney/Welker/Jackson/Arrington/Brown
LT- Light/OCallaghan
RT-Baker/Kazur
LG- Mankins/Hochstein
RG- Neal/Yates
C- Koppen

DT-Wilfork/Bryant
DE-Seymour/Warren/Green/Smith
OLB- Vrabel/Colvin/Crable/Woods
ILB- Thomas/Foote/Goff/Seau
CB- Hobbs/Terrell/Florence/Richardson/Scott/Andrews
S- Harrison/Sanders/Merriweather/Woodyard/Mitchell

K-Gostkowski
P-Dragosavich
LS-Paxton

Now I dont pretend to think that every pick down to the 7th round punter could make a super bowl team, but have to count numbers. There will be more FAs brought in and competition and injury will always change the ideal. To blend intelligence, flexibility, talent, speed and youth on defense is a must because its in a serious transition stage. We need backups to be starters, starters to become playmakers more than ever.

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

CB- Hobbs/Terrell/Florence/Richardson/Scott/Andrews

Great post. Enjoyed reading it. You probably mean Cason here instead of Terrell from SC, right?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The senior bowl just ended so I figure this would be a great time to put a Mock up. For draft pick standings I uses nfldraftscout.com's new listings, but I am sure they are changing all the time. Until the combine, my gut on these guys wont change much.

GONE

Wright-replaced by draft pick
Stallworth- Cap casualty, should catch on somewhere easy(hope not jets)
Washington- too $$ for ST guy
K.Brady- cap casualty not worth 3M

A couple of points here:

Wright is an RFA. They can tender him for ~$1M, and guarantee themselves a second-round pick if someone wants him more. [He also has three years in the system, which shouldn't be overlooked.]

It's unlikely the Pats let both Stallworth and Washington walk. Moreover, if they let Stallworth walk, then Washington can be worked into the rotation at WR. [FWIW, I expect it's more likely that Brown retires.]

As for Kyle Brady--they already paid him $3M for this season. I expect he will return.

DRAFT
7(230?)Compensatory-P-Dragosavich-N.Dakota St-- our punter continues to cost us field position, this guy looked great in the senior bowl setting a record.

There is no way the Pats get a compensatory pick this year. None.

 

[JoePats]

I read somewhere around week 14 or 15 I guess, that QBs were completing 82% of their passes thrown at Drayton Florence. Please don't sign him.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Yes, Cason not Terrell, can you tell I redid this? LOL

Wright for 1M? What happens if Vince gets hurt? Do you think you want Wright in the middle? I suggest getting a guy in the 2nd(Bryant) that pushes Vince to be better, protects the position if he gets hurt, and is more than a stop gap if we cant resign Vince. Worst case he works into the DL rotation. Maybe Wright battles Smith for the last DL spot??

Stallworth and Washington were teammates at UT. They are friends, and they both signed here within days of each other with the understanding that this was a 1 and done year to win a super bowl together. Both are on the books to make more than twice what they are worth next year. Would you pay Washington 3M(he hasnt caught a pass in like 2 years)as a ST and pay Vrabel 4M as a ALL PRO OLB?? Brady is on the books to make 3M this coming year, far too much for a 2/3 TE no matter how much we like him.

I think cap management will be huge with veterans reaching incentives and dead money increasing. Trading down in the draft helps. Being smart with FAs helps. Restructuring SOME guys helps, but its important that we understand that these guys are worth extra $$. Moss took a huge pay cut to come here, made a bit back in incentives, but we HAVE to pay him to have him retire a patriot and go into the HOF as a PATRIOT. There is going to be huge discrepencies between players pay and we need leaders to develop leaders to keep the peace. We have to let some players go to make room for cheaper draft picks--so we can pay the remaining veterans a bit more. By cutting Brady,Stallworth,and Washington we can save over 12M. That $$ can be used to sign Moss, a new LB and a new CB

PS, thought we would be due a 7th for losing at least one FA last year.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Dragosavich won't make it past the 4th round. The top kickers in the last few drafts were all drafted before the end of the 4th round.

The top two punters went with the 2 and 12th picks of the fourth round last year. We got the Ghost in the 4th round.

I've been in the Dragosavich camp for a while (ps he goes by "Drago"), he looked good in the Senoir bowl, I saw him kick one from his twenty to the other teams 15 yards line (the return guy had to turn and run to catch up with the kick over his head).

I think that the Pats are going to have to pick him with pick #95 (the end of the third round.

BTW ctpatsfan77 is absolutely correct, there is no way that the Pats get any comp picks this year, I haven't seen AdamJTs guesses yet, but there is no way that the Pats get any comp picks.

The acutal formula for awarding comp picks is unknown and complicated, however it is based on the number and prowess of the Free Agents you sign versus the ones you lose.

SO that Pats signed...

LB Adalius Thomas (Baltimore); TE Kyle Brady (Jacksonville); RB Sammy Morris (Miami); WR Donte Stallworth (Philadelphia); WR Kelly Washington (Cincinnati); CB Tory James (Cincinnati)

and lost...

LB Tully Banta-Cain (SF); TE Daniel Graham (Denver); P Todd Suaerbrun (Denver)

 

[PatriotsGod]

Great Post loved the depth and research you put into it especially with the trade down........which definately makes sense there is no way the pats want to pay a 1st rounder top ten dollars..................again GREAT POST THANKS

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yes, Cason not Terrell, can you tell I redid this? LOL

Wright for 1M? What happens if Vince gets hurt? Do you think you want Wright in the middle? I suggest getting a guy in the 2nd(Bryant) that pushes Vince to be better, protects the position if he gets hurt, and is more than a stop gap if we cant resign Vince. Worst case he works into the DL rotation. Maybe Wright battles Smith for the last DL spot??

I'm not arguing that Wright needs/should be kept. All I'm saying here is that it's not quite as simple an analysis as you suggest.

Would you pay Washington 3M(he hasnt caught a pass in like 2 years)as a ST and pay Vrabel 4M as a ALL PRO OLB?? Brady is on the books to make 3M this coming year, far too much for a 2/3 TE no matter how much we like him.

(A) Washington's cap hit for next year is $2M. IF Stallworth were to leave, AND Washington were to be a depth WR, that doesn't seem too pricey.
(B) About half of Stallworth's cap hit can be spread out across the rest of his contract, which would lower his hit to <$4M.
(C) If the Pats only intended these to be one-year contracts, rather than "do good and we'll keep you around long term" deals, it would have behooved them to actually make them one-year contracts like Moss'. As things stand, if they let Stallworth or Washington leave, they cannot get compensation.

By cutting Brady,Stallworth,and Washington we can save over 12M. That $$ can be used to sign Moss, a new LB and a new CB.

Actually, it's only about 10M, because of the proration of bonuses. I agree with your basic argument, though.

Let me just point this out--I'm not saying "You're wrong, this won't happen." What I'm trying to say here is "I'm not convinced you're right, and this is why." It's your mock, and you can make whatever assumptions you want. I just wanted to point out why I'm not sold on some of them. [FWIW, my guess is that Stallworth leaves, and Washington and Brady stay.]

 

[BradyToMoss]

I read somewhere around week 14 or 15 I guess, that QBs were completing 82% of their passes thrown at Drayton Florence. Please don't sign him.

I don't want Drayton Florence anywhere near Gillette Stadium. He's a touchdown waiting to happen.

 

[jeffbiologist]

First, no harm in arguing, not personal,LOL.

If Wright is to be kept(having drafted Red Bryant), he should be able to also play the DE position. I like him, but really fear our run D should big Vince go down.

Gaffney has played Stallworth out of a job, likely on purpose like the benching of Wilson this year....

Counting on Washington as a reciever loses you credibility. Troy Brown has played alot more DB than Washington has reciever in the last 2 years, and I like Troy...but wouldnt want him trying to cover Reggie Wayne any time soon. If Washington ever makes the field for us as a reciever a bomb has gone off in the locker room, VRABEL gets more time at reciever!! Like I said, Stallworth and Washington came in together to win a SB. Washingtons cap hit was only like 300K this year to balance the dead money next year when we release him. There is no way you pay him more than Izzo, Mitchell(both of whom have made Pro Bowl ST)and Brown COMBINED!!

Point taken with Florence, was just looking for a slight upgrade over Gay. I would like to keep him as our Nickel back but he may well get a better offer. If we need a guy to replace him, finding a #2 in FA and having a draft pick start at Nickel may be more realistic.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Counting on Washington as a reciever loses you credibility. Troy Brown has played alot more DB than Washington has reciever in the last 2 years, and I like Troy...but wouldnt want him trying to cover Reggie Wayne any time soon. If Washington ever makes the field for us as a reciever a bomb has gone off in the locker room, VRABEL gets more time at reciever!! Like I said, Stallworth and Washington came in together to win a SB. Washingtons cap hit was only like 300K this year to balance the dead money next year when we release him. There is no way you pay him more than Izzo, Mitchell(both of whom have made Pro Bowl ST)and Brown COMBINED!!

I guess we'll just have to disagree on this point--I'm of the opinion that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. (In this case, I don't think the fact that Washington hasn't seen the field at WR means he's incapable of being the #4 or #5 next year.)

 

[chowder]

The senior bowl just ended so I figure this would be a great time to put a Mock up. For draft pick standings I uses nfldraftscout.com's new listings, but I am sure they are changing all the time. Until the combine, my gut on these guys wont change much.

Free Agent Re-signings

Moss-our #1 off season priority. I think this will be his last contract, he will give us a small hometown discount in exchange for years...5/35M with our option on 10M the last year.

Gaffney-3/7M of so should be fine for a #2-3 guy

Seau-1/minimum-he has gas left in tank

Paxton-1/minimum-havent found a position player to replace yet

Mitchell-3/3M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him more valuable

Woods-3/5M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him valuable too

T.Brown-1/1M- year off leaves him in great shape, multi positonal backup

GONE

Bruschi retires- great guy, great career

Samuel- just too costly

Wright-replaced by draft pick

Gay- I think someone will offer him more than we can

Stallworth- Cap casualty, should catch on somewhere easy(hope not jets)

Washington- too $$ for ST guy

K.Brady- cap casualty not worth 3M

Wilson- writing on wall when you go from starter to not dressing

RENEGOTIATING

Colvin- 2nd most important offseason move. FA and draft moves based on his health and acceptance of a paycut. 3M in dead money is going to hurt if he is cut, 7.5M is just too much for a 1 dimensional player(as good as he is a playmaker). Redone to 3/10-12, ??$$ guaranteed.

It would be a good time to extend both Brady and Wilfork as well

FREE AGENTS


ILB L.Foote-3/7M- another Pittsburgh LB castoff that flourishes a few years(hopefully).

CB-D.Florence-a great #2 CB pickup. He kept Cromartie on the bench a year and a half, that says alot.

CB-C.Scott-resigned for 1/2M- the guy knows our system and we hope he can stay healthy this time.....

TRADES

#7 to Chicago for #14 and #45

#14 then to Dallas for their #22 and their 2nd

Our 2(63) for say ATL(2) in 09


DRAFT

1(22)- T- Sam Baker-USC--best value of the linemen left on board, can play both guard and tackle

2(45)-CB A.Cason--best CB left, Cromartie shouldnt drop this far, Mckelvin and Jenkins drop Cason to 2nd rd.

2(60?)-DT-- Red Bryant-Texas A&M--upgrade over Wright and should push Vince in a contract year. Gives us negotiating leverage, by far the best NT this year.BIG. Great motor in senior bowl.

3(68 from Oakland)-OLB--S.Crable-Michigan--outside rusher, project but Michigan background and age help here. Luxury pick really.

3(95)-TE-Cottam-Tenn-- looks like the real deal in the senior bowl. Not much experience but great size, liked the way he used his hands too.

4(120?)-SS-Wesley Woodyard-Kentucky- This guy is a ball hawk,playmaker, nose for the ball but without the big hit. Could learn from Rodney.

5(150?)-ILB-Goff-Vanderbilt--kinda doubt he will be here but scoutsinc says he should,lol. We do need bodies here, hoping someone will turn out smart..

6(180?)-WR Arrington- Michigan--big reciever with decent speed.

7(210?) CB Ikegwuonu-Wisconsin-likely wont be here, blew out his MCL last week but we put him on IR and hope to get 1st round talent cheap, nothing to lose really....

7(230?)Compensatory-P-Dragosavich-N.Dakota St-- our punter continues to cost us field position, this guy looked great in the senior bowl setting a record.

DEPTH CHART

QB- Brady/Gutierrez/Cassel(looking for GUT to win backup role)
RB- Maroney/Morris/Faulk/Evans/Eckel or FA
TE- Watson/Thomas/Cottam
WR- Moss/Gaffney/Welker/Jackson/Arrington/Brown
LT- Light/OCallaghan
RT-Baker/Kazur
LG- Mankins/Hochstein
RG- Neal/Yates
C- Koppen

DT-Wilfork/Bryant
DE-Seymour/Warren/Green/Smith
OLB- Vrabel/Colvin/Crable/Woods
ILB- Thomas/Foote/Goff/Seau
CB- Hobbs/Terrell/Florence/Richardson/Scott/Andrews
S- Harrison/Sanders/Merriweather/Woodyard/Mitchell

K-Gostkowski
P-Dragosavich
LS-Paxton

Now I dont pretend to think that every pick down to the 7th round punter could make a super bowl team, but have to count numbers. There will be more FAs brought in and competition and injury will always change the ideal. To blend intelligence, flexibility, talent, speed and youth on defense is a must because its in a serious transition stage. We need backups to be starters, starters to become playmakers more than ever.

i think i love just about every pick in your mock (especially from a value standpoint based on where they are taken) but i have a feeling that alot of the players in your mock may go higher than you projected. However, if we ended up with those players, i'd be absolutely delighted.

 

[DaBruinz]

The senior bowl just ended so I figure this would be a great time to put a Mock up. For draft pick standings I uses nfldraftscout.com's new listings, but I am sure they are changing all the time. Until the combine, my gut on these guys wont change much.

Free Agent Re-signings

Moss-our #1 off season priority. I think this will be his last contract, he will give us a small hometown discount in exchange for years...5/35M with our option on 10M the last year.

I think that is feasible.

Gaffney-3/7M of so should be fine for a #2-3 guy

This will depend on what the Pats do with Stallworth.

Seau-1/minimum-he has gas left in tank

I wouldn't mind seeing Seau back.

Paxton-1/minimum-havent found a position player to replace yet

Why would you only re-sign Paxton for a year? He's been an excellent long-snapper in this league. I don't remember but maybe 1 bad snap in his entire career.

Mitchell-3/3M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him more valuable

What makes you sure that Washington is gone? The Pats could re-structure his contract to keep him around easily.

Woods-3/5M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him valuable too

Pierre Woods is an Exclusive Rights free agent for this year. He'll be a Restricted free agent after 2008. No need to over-pay him.

T.Brown-1/1M- year off leaves him in great shape, multi positonal backup

Sorry, but I see Troy Retiring. Also, there just isn't space for him on the roster. If you've noticed, he's only been on the field but a few times. And one of the times, he muffed a punt that he normally would have made.

GONE

Bruschi retires- great guy, great career

You're probably right.

Samuel- just too costly

The Pats could easily sign Samuel to an extension if he wanted to be here. Also, it seems that the "Get Paid" tattoo rumor has been debunked as a figment of Jackie MacMullen's ego...errr.. imagination.

Wright-replaced by draft pick

Why would they do that? Wright is a restricted free agent. No need to get rid of him when the Pats can tender him as a 2nd round tender and then match or sign him to an offer. Or trade him for a 2nd round pick. Honestly, I think Wright sticks because of his special teams play.

Gay- I think someone will offer him more than we can

I think Gay will be staying around. Unless Parcells or Mangini try to get him. If that is the case, then the Pats will look at someone else.

Stallworth- Cap casualty, should catch on somewhere easy(hope not jets)

You're probably right here.

Washington- too $$ for ST guy

Can you REALLY put a price tag on what he brings on special teams? I don't think so. I think he's more important than Izzo there.

K.Brady- cap casualty not worth 3M

Brady isn't going to be cut. There's no need to cut him. Some of your "thoughts" seem to be done just for the sake of doing it.

Wilson- writing on wall when you go from starter to not dressing

Or Wilson was nursing injuries. Or the Pats felt other personnel gave them a better chance at certain times. But you are probably correct. Though, a lot will depend on the other DBs, like Mitchell, Gay and Samuel.

RENEGOTIATING

Colvin- 2nd most important offseason move. FA and draft moves based on his health and acceptance of a paycut. 3M in dead money is going to hurt if he is cut, 7.5M is just too much for a 1 dimensional player(as good as he is a playmaker). Redone to 3/10-12, ??$$ guaranteed.

You're numbers are wrong. Colvin had 5.4 Million in remaining SB amortization prior to the start of this year. Its likely only about 2.7 million if the Pats cut him, but it may not even be that much. Also, you're talking out your arse. Colvin isn't a one dimensional player. He's a very good all-around LB who has improved himself significantly against the run. Also, the Pats carried 4 million in dead cap money this year and could easily carry that next year as well.

It would be a good time to extend both Brady and Wilfork as well

Wilfork isn't done his rookie contract. He's signed through 2009. As such, it probably won't be until training camp that they start discussing numbers. Why? Because that's been the Patriots modus operandi. Seymour. Brady. Warren. Even Samuel and Branch. The Pats didn't start talking new contract with more than 2 years remaining on it. I DO believe that Wilfork will get an extension, but its unlikely to free up any money for the 2008 season. Especially since Wilfork hit some NLTBE bonuses this year.

As for Brady, he's got 3 more years on his contract. Why would they extend him NOW? Just for the sake of extending him? Yeah, if they need the cap room, but they don't need it.

FREE AGENTS


ILB L.Foote-3/7M- another Pittsburgh LB castoff that flourishes a few years(hopefully).

No thanks. Foote is one of the guys who runs his mouth. I'd rather a Karlos Dansby or a Chaun Thompson.

CB-D.Florence-a great #2 CB pickup. He kept Cromartie on the bench a year and a half, that says alot.

No it doesn't. In fact, Florence is more of a #3 CB. Not to mention that Cromartie was "kept on the bench" due to his recovering from a torn ACL. If the Pats had Florence as the #2 CB, then the entire secondary would be hurting because Hobbs isn't ready to be a #1 and probably is better suited as the #2 or #3 CB.

CB-C.Scott-resigned for 1/2M- the guy knows our system and we hope he can stay healthy this time.....

He's never been healthy for a full season. I don't see BB wasting the spot unless its for the vet minimum.

 

[sebman2112]

Moss-our #1 off season priority. I think this will be his last contract, he will give us a small hometown discount in exchange for years...5/35M with our option on 10M the last year.

I think NE's signing moss to a 2-3 year deal seems more likely.

Gaffney-3/7M of so should be fine for a #2-3 guy

Ah, $2-2.3M per isn't bad for Gaffney, and I'm sure he'd be happy to take the money.

Seau-1/minimum-he has gas left in tank

We'll see what happens, but it seems more likely Seau's going to retire.

Paxton-1/minimum-havent found a position player to replace yet

Agreed.

Mitchell-3/3M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him more valuable

Mitchell's a minimum salary guy, and there's a bunch of special teamers just as good available every year during free agency.

Woods-3/5M-loss of Washington/Izzo makes him valuable too

Hmm, I like the idea of bringing Woods back, and I think that seems like a somewhat accurate salary total. He's been a very good special teamer this year, but that's not the main reason for my wanting to resign him. He's still got some untapped potential, and with the increased quality of his play on special teams, maybe he's going to start developing. Remember, he was considered one of the best HS players in the nation before going to Michigan.

Edit: Considering Woods is an ERFA I don't think we'll have to worry about his going anywhere.

T.Brown-1/1M- year off leaves him in great shape, multi positonal backup

I think he's gone. I'll be sad to see him leave, but that's my opinion.

GONE

Bruschi retires- great guy, great career

I've thought there was a good chance Bruschi could retire after this season, but I'm not 100% about that, and it seems his return is more likely than Seau's.

Samuel- just too costly

Agreed. I'd like to see him on the Patriots roster for the remainder of his career, but someone else is going to offer him a blockbuster of a deal.

Wright-replaced by draft pick

I think they'll draft a D-linemen, but Wright should come back as an RFA. If not it's because NE tenders him low enough for someone else to grab him.

Gay- I think someone will offer him more than we can

I've thought there's a chance he could get a few decent offers, but I'm not sure he'll get many offers signifigant enough that NE wouldn't match them. Also, he's had quite the injury history, which should keep his pricetag down. I any case I think he'll resign.

Stallworth- Cap casualty, should catch on somewhere easy(hope not jets)

Stallworth's contract can actually be restructered without his salary taking a hit. I believe they can restructure him to the point where his 2008 cap hit would be something like $4.5M. Knowing this, I could see him coming back, but he could end up being a "cap casualty". That would kind of stink, as I think he could have an increased roll in NE's offense over the next few years. They'll probably at least try to work something out though, as NE wouldn't look to good if they just cut him outright.

Washington- too $$ for ST guy

He can be restructed, and maybe he'll be willing to do this. He's turned into one of NE's best special teamers, and he does provide good depth at WR, so I'd bring him back at a lower privetag.

K.Brady- cap casualty not worth 3M

The only way Kyle hits the road is if he retires. BB loves him, and has for a very long time. That's not to much money for the best blocking TE in the NFL either.

Wilson- writing on wall when you go from starter to not dressing

Agreed.

RENEGOTIATING

Colvin- 2nd most important offseason move. FA and draft moves based on his health and acceptance of a paycut. 3M in dead money is going to hurt if he is cut, 7.5M is just too much for a 1 dimensional player(as good as he is a playmaker). Redone to 3/10-12, ??$$ guaranteed.

It really seems like NE should be able to work something out with Colvin. Remember, his cap hit is only that high because he was a team player in the past when NE asked him to restructure, not because his actual salary is that high. $3.3M per isn't enough though (I think you're dreamin' on that one). Something like $5-5.5M per seems about accurate, and he's worth it. I sure wish he was playing sunday....

It would be a good time to extend both Brady and Wilfork as well

Yea, Tom could use an extension. That extension could lower his current cap hit, and allow NE the additional room they'll need to bring in some free agents. I'd also like to see them get something done with Big Vince, and hopefully he'll sign a deal similar to Warren's.

Free Agents
ILB L.Foote-3/7M- another Pittsburgh LB castoff that flourishes a few years(hopefully).

The NFLPA list Foote as being signed through the 2009 season, where are you seeing him listed as a free agent? Did the Steelers release him? Maybe you're thinking of Haggans, who is a free agent...

CB-D.Florence-a great #2 CB pickup. He kept Cromartie on the bench a year and a half, that says alot.

Not interested. There should be some very good CB's available in the draft, and other CB's available in free agency that make more sense for NE.

CB-C.Scott-resigned for 1/2M- the guy knows our system and we hope he can stay healthy this time.....

I could see NE bringing Scott back for another year. probably at the Vet Minimum, or $1.5M, but I doubt he'd cost anymore than that.

Some other free agent options:
LB Victor Hobson (as an ILB. He shouldn't be expensive.)
LB Kawika Mitchell
LB Karlos Dansby (probably to expensive though)
RB Justin Fargas (depending on Sammy's health, and recovery. He shouldn't be expensive, either.)
Safety Ken Hamlin (maybe)

TRADES

#7 to Chicago for #14 and #45

#14 then to Dallas for their #22 and their 2nd

Our 2(63) for say ATL(2) in 09

I like the idea of trading down, and that Chicago trade could possibly make sense. 14th overall seems like a good place to pick, and there should be a good amount of solid players left at 45th overall. I don't care about swinging that Dallas trade, and I think they're more interested in trading up for McFadden.

DRAFT

1(22)- T- Sam Baker-USC--best value of the linemen left on board, can play both guard and tackle

I like the idea of staying put at 14th overall, if Ne swings that Chicago trade, so Obviously I'm not interested in this pick.

2(45)-CB A.Cason--best CB left, Cromartie shouldnt drop this far, Mckelvin and Jenkins drop Cason to 2nd rd.

I still think he could go in the first round, but I'd be very happy if he makes it this far. In my opinion he's a better CB than Rodgers-Cromartie, and makes the most sense for NE's system.

Groves could be available at this pick, and if NE hasn't already drafted an OLB they'd probably think about making Quintin a Patriot. His pass rushing ability reminds me of Colvin, but he's faster(4.43), and slightly stronger against the run. The fact that he's coming off a season in which he fought through dislocated toes might allow NE to grab him this late. Before the season (and the first few weeks when he looked like a beast) scouts had him as the 2nd best pass rusher coming out, and listed him as a top 15 pick.

2(60?)-DT-- Red Bryant-Texas A&M--upgrade over Wright and should push Vince in a contract year. Gives us negotiating leverage, by far the best NT this year.BIG. Great motor in senior bowl.

If he's available I'm taking Jon Goff here.

3(68 from Oakland)-OLB--S.Crable-Michigan--outside rusher, project but Michigan background and age help here. Luxury pick really.

I like Crable, and this wouldn't be a bad pick (depending on who they already selected). Some other options would be selecting one of the many good RB's in this draft class, a Safety, or taking a CB from another position with depth this year.

5(150?)-ILB-Goff-Vanderbilt--kinda doubt he will be here but scoutsinc says he should,lol. We do need bodies here, hoping someone will turn out smart..

Scouts Inc says Goff will be available in the 5th round? That doesn't sound right to me. The guy's produced, has a high motor, good size, tackles well, strong intellect, and leadership ability. He should be gone in the 2nd round, and I've been waiting for someone to actually give me a reason to believe other wise.

7(210?) CB Ikegwuonu-Wisconsin-likely wont be here, blew out his MCL last week but we put him on IR and hope to get 1st round talent cheap, nothing to lose really....

He does seem like good second day value. Maybe NE drafts him a little earlier (6th round?), but with that injury I doubt he's a first day pick.

7(230?)Compensatory-P-Dragosavich-N.Dakota St-- our punter continues to cost us field position, this guy looked great in the senior bowl setting a record.

I highly doubt NE's getting a compensatory pick this year, and I could see Dragosavish going a little higher.

 

[DaBruinz]

TRADES

#7 to Chicago for #14 and #45

#14 then to Dallas for their #22 and their 2nd

Our 2(63) for say ATL(2) in 09

WAY too much wishful thinking on your part with these trades.

DRAFT

1(22)- T- Sam Baker-USC--best value of the linemen left on board, can play both guard and tackle

Best Value based on what? Based on the Pats needs at O-line? Or based on his draft status. What I read/hear about Baker makes me believe he's NOT what the Pats are looking for because he struggles with lateral movement and getting to the 2nd level for blocking assignments. The zone blocking scheme is all about lateral movement and the linemen getting the 2nd level, particulary on traps and pulls.

I'm not sure who would be good for the Pats, but it needs to be someone with good footwork and the ability to make it to the 2nd level for blocking assignments in the zone blocking scheme the Pats use.

2(45)-CB A.Cason--best CB left, Cromartie shouldnt drop this far, Mckelvin and Jenkins drop Cason to 2nd rd.

Real wishful thinking on your part. Cason will go in the 1st round and his status won't be hurt by McKelvin, Cromartie and Jenkins. Sorry.

2(60?)-DT-- Red Bryant-Texas A&M--upgrade over Wright and should push Vince in a contract year. Gives us negotiating leverage, by far the best NT this year.BIG. Great motor in senior bowl.

Vince is under contract through 2009. Not sure why you think this is a contract year for him. Also, I think you have discounted that Mike Wright plays on special teams and is quite effective there.

3(68 from Oakland)-OLB--S.Crable-Michigan--outside rusher, project but Michigan background and age help here. Luxury pick really.

Can the Pats afford a "luxury" pick in the 3rd round? Doesn't make much sense. Particularly when you look at what they've done with those picks. Especially with the Pats needing ILBs.

3(95)-TE-Cottam-Tenn-- looks like the real deal in the senior bowl. Not much experience but great size, liked the way he used his hands too.

BB does tend to draft TEs. However, Spach has been a real find. K. Brady will be here next year. The Pats have David Thomas and Ben Watson still. Not sure that he'd be the type of player the Pats are looking for based on some of the things I'm seeing on him..

4(120?)-SS-Wesley Woodyard-Kentucky- This guy is a ball hawk,playmaker, nose for the ball but without the big hit. Could learn from Rodney.

Reports are that this kid has very stiff hips and very little upper body flexibility and that he'd have a rough time becoming a SS since he's been an WOLB his entire career. What makes you believe he's a ball-hawk with only 1 int this past year?

5(150?)-ILB-Goff-Vanderbilt--kinda doubt he will be here but scoutsinc says he should,lol. We do need bodies here, hoping someone will turn out smart..

Goff will probably be off the board in the 3rd round.

6(180?)-WR Arrington- Michigan--big reciever with decent speed.

I don't see the Pats drafting a receiver unless they failed to retain Moss and Gaffney then cut Stallworth and Washington.

7(210?) CB Ikegwuonu-Wisconsin-likely wont be here, blew out his MCL last week but we put him on IR and hope to get 1st round talent cheap, nothing to lose really....

Kid is potentially facing a prison term for robbery and B&E. If he's found innocent, then maybe. Otherwise, no way.

7(230?)Compensatory-P-Dragosavich-N.Dakota St-- our punter continues to cost us field position, this guy looked great in the senior bowl setting a record.

Really? Our punter continues to cost us field position? You sure about that? BB doesn't seem to think so. In fact, I think BB likes Hanson. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a UDFA Punter.

Also, the Pats aren't due for any compensatory picks this year because they signed more than they lost.

Now I dont pretend to think that every pick down to the 7th round punter could make a super bowl team, but have to count numbers. There will be more FAs brought in and competition and injury will always change the ideal. To blend intelligence, flexibility, talent, speed and youth on defense is a must because its in a serious transition stage. We need backups to be starters, starters to become playmakers more than ever.

All true. However, you should remember that BB tries to go into the draft with a complete 53 man roster and that the picks (outside the 1st 3 rounds) have as much likelihood of being cut as making the team.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Corrections and explanations based on criticizm,LOL.
Washington-- is a bone of contention for some, but if he restructures at ST only $$ I wouldnt mind keeping him. Cap hit is 2m..too much
Mitchell--has made the PRO BOWL for ST, cant be easy to replace that
Moss--should give him more years to keep him happy, he plays well happy
Wright--not a great NT, to get Bryant a definate upgrade.
Gay/Florence--If we keep Gay no need, but we still need at least 1 day 1 pick
Foote--Saw him as a FA on another site, my bad
Woods--under contract, again my bad
Stallworth--no restructure as we make room for Jackson and a pick
Samuel--we all agree
Tom and Vince extensions--Tom's(14M) for cap room, Vince to save long term $$
K.Brady--cap hit is 3m, too much
T.Brown--wouldnt be surprised to see him back, he had a whole year off
Colvin--like 2.5M cap hit to cut, 7.5 cap hit to keep. He is worth about 1/2
Draft--of course optomistic
I think JJ falls in love with McKelvin if he doesnt get DMC
Trading back saves us big $$
Woodyard and Crable could be projects, maybe bigger upside than Sanders/Woods, understood not all will make it, competition is good
We dont have to draft for NEED, a OL in the 1st/DL in 2nd may be our best bet. CBs can be had in 2nd, QUALITY OL/DL always harder to find-not sexy
I think the 2 keys to the offseason is 1-Moss and 2-Colvin. What we do in the draft has alot to do if Colvin is in the fold. If he isnt, wouldnt be surprised to see us trade up to get DL Long. Now lets win just one more game!!

 

[DaBruinz]

Corrections and explanations based on criticizm,LOL.
Washington-- is a bone of contention for some, but if he restructures at ST only $$ I wouldnt mind keeping him. Cap hit is 2m..too much Its an option bonus that could EASILY be changed into a signing bonus and spread over the last few years of his contract.
Mitchell--has made the PRO BOWL for ST, cant be easy to replace that Mitchell hasn't made the Pro Bowl on Special Teams while a Patriot. In fact, his season ended last year before it started and this year saw him riding the bench for 6 games during the middle of the year. I think he's easier to replace than you believe.
Moss--should give him more years to keep him happy, he plays well happy
Wright--not a great NT, to get Bryant a definate upgrade. I have to disagree here unless you are saying that Bryant can play on special teams. Is that what you are saying? Mike Wright isn't great NT, but he's not pond scum either. Wright has versatility on the D-line and he also plays on special teams. Again, he's an RFA and there is no sense in just letting him go for nothing.
Gay/Florence--If we keep Gay no need, but we still need at least 1 day 1 pick One thought, Florence was one of the Chargers that took exception to the Patriots dancing at the 50 yard line 2 years ago. What makes you think he'll join the pats?
Foote--Saw him as a FA on another site, my bad I think you meant Clark Haggans, who is a FA. I remember there being an issue with him (legal?) but don't remember what exactly.
Woods--under contract, again my bad
Stallworth--no restructure as we make room for Jackson and a pick Again, I don't see the Pats spending a pick on a WR. Moss, Welker, Jackson, Washington, Gaffney is EXTREMELY solid. And there is still the outside potential that Bam Childress will be back.
Samuel--we all agree
Tom and Vince extensions--Tom's(14M) for cap room, Vince to save long term $$ The Pats won't do anything on Wilfork's contract before the start of the season. Not with 2 years remaining on it. After TC starts, they might, but don't be too sure. Also, there is no guarantee that Wilfork will want to sign this early. Especially if he feels he'll get more money.

As for Brady, You might want to check how much money is salary and how much is amortized signing bonus. 7.86 million of the 14.626 million (not including NLTBE bonuses that will automatically become LTBE due to being earned in 2007) is amortized signing bonus. So, there isn't much to push out to get cap room.

K.Brady--cap hit is 3m, too much Why is the 3 million too much? He's an excellent blocker and he does have some receiving abilities still. its cheaper than Daniel Graham.
T.Brown--wouldnt be surprised to see him back, he had a whole year off
Colvin--like 2.5M cap hit to cut, 7.5 cap hit to keep. He is worth about 1/2
Draft--of course optomistic
I think JJ falls in love with McKelvin if he doesnt get DMC
Trading back saves us big $$
Woodyard and Crable could be projects, maybe bigger upside than Sanders/Woods, understood not all will make it, competition is good
We dont have to draft for NEED, a OL in the 1st/DL in 2nd may be our best bet. CBs can be had in 2nd, QUALITY OL/DL always harder to find-not sexy
I think the 2 keys to the offseason is 1-Moss and 2-Colvin. What we do in the draft has alot to do if Colvin is in the fold. If he isnt, wouldnt be surprised to see us trade up to get DL Long. Now lets win just one more game!!

Why do you think that the Pats NEED to free up cap money? By Miguel's figures, the Pats are 10.2 million under the cap. Now, they did push 5.6 million into next year, but all of that is going to be taken up by the NLTBE bonuses that were earned this year AND the ones that will automatically switch from NLTBE to LTBE. Also, Miguel has mentioned previously that the 116.1 million mentioned as the salary cap for next season will, in all likelihood, go up because the league didn't use all the cap money this year, like it didn't use it all last year.

Colvin, in my opinion, will get a 3-4 year extension, which will lower his cap hit. He'll get the extension because he's developed into an every down LB who isn't just a pass rush specialist. That will free up money. But I don't believe that he'll be given the ultimatum of extend or be cut the way Milloy was. There isn't any need and won't be before the end of TC.

The Patriots draft based on VALUE as determined by THEM. Not by Scouts.INC. Not by NFLDraftSCout.com. Not by OUTSIDERS.COM. They have a very intircate system that they use in determining value and rating players. But the basics is that VALUE = Physical Attributes, Natural Attributes (Leadership, Football intelligence, etc) and need for the team. In other words, the PATS ALSO rate their own players by the same standards as the draft picks they make. And they make them based on how they believe they will fill in on the team. Yes, in a weak draft, you will see players like Elgin, Oldenburg, etc, taken to provide competition at certain positions.

I know that I don't do the Pats drafting system justice, but, then I think only Bill Belichick or Scott Pioli could TRULY offer an accurate explanation.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

BB does tend to draft TEs. However, Spach has been a real find. K. Brady will be here next year. The Pats have David Thomas and Ben Watson still. Not sure that he'd be the type of player the Pats are looking for based on some of the things I'm seeing on him.

I ask because I'm unsure, not as criticism--what makes you say that? And, with the pending return of Thomas, do you see Spach having a shot at making the roster next year?

 

[Patsmaniac]

I think David Thomas(if he is as good as advertised and can contribute) eliminated Spach from the roster, except as a guy we would pull in and out as needed. I dont see keeping 4 TEs as a priority. If we draft a TE I see us using the draft pick and spach as compeitition, and most lilely keeping one(draft pick) on the IR-practice squad. just my thoughts.

We need to have our young recievers--AKA Jackson/Thomas step up next year and be contributors. That will go along way for us over the next bunch of years.

 

[DaBruinz]

I ask because I'm unsure, not as criticism--what makes you say that? And, with the pending return of Thomas, do you see Spach having a shot at making the roster next year?

Spach has come in and done everything asked of him. Do I see him on the roster? Not likely unless K. Brady retires. But Spach has done what Marcellus Rivers wasn't able to do. And I think that Spach will be in TC this summer to provide depth.