Some Prediction-type Ramblings

[Ring 6]

OK, here are some ramblings thoughts about my expectations of Pats/Bolts.

The easiset: Brady will be awesome. Specifically, I expect a lot of big plays in the passing game. We have switched from game to game between efficient and explosive in the passing game. I think this one will be explosive. (By the way, watching some of the replay of last years po game in SD, it was unbelievable the difference in our passing game. Compared to this year, it looked like Brady was trying to get it done with Division 2 college players as receivers. There were not an awful lot of plays out there for him to make, but he made them. I saw about 25 pass plays in the part I watched, and I don't think more than 3 of them had receivers as open as they are on our average pass play this year) How the game goes has so much to do with stats, but the number I can most confidently predict is yards per attempt. If we throw an awful lot (meaning we include more short passes than if we run more) I'd expect to see about 8+ ypa, but if we are balanced, Id expect 10+. I see lots of intermediate (12-18 yard) throws, and a good amount of deep balls.
I expect Maroney to to be a factor. Again how the game goes will dictate this. If we run a lot, he will get a lot of tough yards, and move the chains, and if we are throwing, he will break some bigs plays. I'd guess there are 2 distinct possiblities. Something like 15 rushes for 80 yards or 28 for 100. The gameplan and how the game develops would determine which, but as I see it either would be an equally good day for Maroney, for different reasons.
Moss will dominate. I expect the Chargers to be focussed more on eliminating Welker than Moss. Take away the automatic pitch and catch and drive right down the field and make them beat you with lower percentage (theoretically) plays.
I see Rodney extending his playoff Int streak.
I think Vrabel will be dominating in the pass rush. (This is tough prediction, because while Vrabel is often dominant when rushing, many games the gameplan does not have him rushing a lot)
_________________________________________________________________
As an aside, I think Mike Vrabel is by FAR the most underrated Pat, and is one of the biggest reasons for this teams success. Vrabel simply does everything a LB does, equally well, as well as almost anyone, and equally as often. Depending on the opponent, Vrabel may control the game with his pass rushing or almost never rush, and fanstastic in pass coverage.
Here is the litmus test to me:
1) How many times have you seen Vrabel be disruptive as a pass rusher (a ton)
2) How many times have you seen an opponent break a big run off of our outside the T on Vrabel side (I cant remember the last one)
3) How many times have you seen passes completed to the man Vrabel was covering (and although it goes unoticed he is in coverage a lot) I can hardly remember any
_________________________________________________________________

Our OL will, again, be awesome. I expect some early pressure, maybe even a sack or 2, but that will be it. They may see some thigns they werent expecting early, but beyond that any sacks will be coverage sacks.

Shawne Merriman at some point will make a play. Ultimately that play will have NO impact on the outcome of the game, but when he makes the play, he will respond as if he just single-handedly won the SB.

I think that we target the ILBs of the Chargers. Expect runs between the Ts, probalby a lot of draws as well, and a lot of passing into the ILB zones, resulting in runs after the catch.

We will force at least 2 fumbles. I see one either in sts, or by a WR, and at least one by whichever QB they have in there.

The Chargers will move the ball reasonbly well. They will make some plays in the passing game up the field, inside the numbers. Oru defensive gameplan will not be designed to sell out for 3 and outs. Early we will take away the run, and give them opportunities in the passing game, but as the game wears on and we are ahead, we will clamp them down, resulting in Int opportunites, sacks, and a flustered Rivers, if he stays around, or Volek forcing throws, if he is in.
The biggest concern IMO with the SD offense is the dump offs and screens to the RBs. I'm not concerned with the running game, because for them to be effective running it, they will have to throw to sustain drives, and playing from ahead, we wont be too concern with them making some first downs on the ground and eating up the clock. I think the dump offs and screens to the RBs will be a huge focus of the gameplan and this weeks practices. They are good at it, so can still make plays if we defend it but they create missed tackles, but the only way they will hurt us with that part of the game is if we do miss tackles.

I see a HUGE game coming from Seymour. I see a huge game from Moss.


I see a reasonably close game throughout the first half, and towards the end of the first half we will extend a lead. In the second half they will hang close, as we play conservative D from ahead, in respect of their weapons and in order to make the clock our friend. Then I see Brady going for the throat, extending the lead and putting it out of reach by the early 4th. SD may score after this to make the final score a little closer, but by the 12 minute mark of the 4th quarter, it will be realistically over.

Final score:
Pats 38 Chargers 20

 

[hambone1818]

So in other words the Patriots are going to win big?

I agree with most of your assessment, though it seems like you're basically taking all the big players (Brady, Moss, Maroney, Rodney and Vrabel) and saying they're going to have big games. That's all well and good, but it really isn't saying a whole hell of a lot.

Me? I expect a ton of 3rd and 4th receiver catches (meaning big days for Watson, Gaffney, etc). Cromartie will probably have the lone responsibility of covering Moss and I think he gets burnt once--maybe twice--for big plays, but for the most part keeps him in check. Because you see the single coverage there, I'd expect Stallworth and Welker to get blanketed, but they only have so many defenders for all the Patriots weapons, which is why I think we'll see Brady check down to his 3rd and 4th options on a number of plays.

I agree wrt to Maroney, he's look so much better the last few weeks and I could see their aggressive defense allowing Maroney enough holes to get into the 2nd and 3rd line of defense on a number of carries.

I expect Wilfork to be huge this game--not on the stat sheet, because he never is--but they're going to have to double him and that'll open it up for AD and Vrabel to come off the edge a few times and pressure whoever's at QB.

Just my thoughts. Oh, and I also expect a pretty big win, something like 38-20.

 

[patsox23]

hope you're right. Interesting stuff.

 

[BelichickFan]

I expect Maroney to to be a factor. Again how the game goes will dictate this. If we run a lot, he will get a lot of tough yards, and move the chains, and if we are throwing, he will break some bigs plays. I'd guess there are 2 distinct possiblities. Something like 15 rushes for 80 yards or 28 for 100.

An underated guy on the Chargers' injury list is NT Williams who has a bad ankle. I imagine he'll play but it will help with our running game. With the Chargers likely to have Merriman and/or Phillips rushing on most plays and the Safeties having to help deep, there should be some serious short stuff available for Watson, Welker, the RB receiving and also less bodies to stop the run.

 

[Ring 6]

An underated guy on the Chargers' injury list is NT Williams who has a bad ankle. I imagine he'll play but it will help with our running game. With the Chargers likely to have Merriman and/or Phillips rushing on most plays and the Safeties having to help deep, there should be some serious short stuff available for Watson, Welker, the RB receiving and also less bodies to stop the run.

As I said, I think we attack their ILBs. All those factors you mention make it a weakness that they will further expose by gameplan.

 

[ShrewBeer]

I see Rodney extending his playoff Int streak.
I think Vrabel will be dominating in the pass rush. (This is tough prediction, because while Vrabel is often dominant when rushing, many games the gameplan does not have him rushing a lot)
_________________________________________________________________
As an aside, I think Mike Vrabel is by FAR the most underrated Pat, and is one of the biggest reasons for this teams success. Vrabel simply does everything a LB does, equally well, as well as almost anyone, and equally as often. Depending on the opponent, Vrabel may control the game with his pass rushing or almost never rush, and fanstastic in pass coverage.
Here is the litmus test to me:
1) How many times have you seen Vrabel be disruptive as a pass rusher (a ton)
2) How many times have you seen an opponent break a big run off of our outside the T on Vrabel side (I cant remember the last one)
3) How many times have you seen passes completed to the man Vrabel was covering (and although it goes unoticed he is in coverage a lot) I can hardly remember any
_________________________________________________________________

Our OL will, again, be awesome. I expect some early pressure, maybe even a sack or 2, but that will be it. They may see some thigns they werent expecting early, but beyond that any sacks will be coverage sacks.

I think that we target the ILBs of the Chargers. Expect runs between the Ts, probalby a lot of draws as well, and a lot of passing into the ILB zones, resulting in runs after the catch.

The biggest concern IMO with the SD offense is the dump offs and screens to the RBs. I'm not concerned with the running game, because for them to be effective running it, they will have to throw to sustain drives, and playing from ahead, we wont be too concern with them making some first downs on the ground and eating up the clock. I think the dump offs and screens to the RBs will be a huge focus of the gameplan and this weeks practices. They are good at it, so can still make plays if we defend it but they create missed tackles, but the only way they will hurt us with that part of the game is if we do miss tackles.

Final score:
Pats 38 Chargers 20

nice ramblings. totally agreed about the dominance of the offense. as for the most underrated pat, i think i could make an argument with you on that. IMO its faulk, followed closely by vrabel, so theres not much of an argument at that.
OL is always awesome, but the recent bouts of the flu have me a little concerned. makes me wonder how many of them actually have it, or are recovered completely.
i too would like to see them attack the middle lbs. lots of draws would be nice, and coupled with play-action will get them to freeze right up.

all in all, pretty much completely agreed.

one thing i would add though, is that i think this game will have many more possessions. these three possession halves are killing me.

 

[Ring 6]

nice ramblings. totally agreed about the dominance of the offense. as for the most underrated pat, i think i could make an argument with you on that. IMO its faulk, followed closely by vrabel, so theres not much of an argument at that.
OL is always awesome, but the recent bouts of the flu have me a little concerned. makes me wonder how many of them actually have it, or are recovered completely.
i too would like to see them attack the middle lbs. lots of draws would be nice, and coupled with play-action will get them to freeze right up.

all in all, pretty much completely agreed.

one thing i would add though, is that i think this game will have many more possessions. these three possession halves are killing me.

Who is more underrated of course depends on what you see as the general opinion. However, Vrabel has a significantly bigger impact. He plays every snap on defense, while Faulk's contributions do go unnoticed he is just a parttime player, so cant have as much impact.

The possession issue is a double edged sword. When you complete 26 of 28, your possessions are going to eat an awful lot of clock. Contrary to the idea that running the ball is the best way to eat clock, actually completing all of your passes eats it better (or at least equally as 100% runs). In fact, in the first half last week, we had those few possessions, even including forcing a turnover.

 

[ShrewBeer]

Who is more underrated of course depends on what you see as the general opinion. However, Vrabel has a significantly bigger impact. He plays every snap on defense, while Faulk's contributions do go unnoticed he is just a parttime player, so cant have as much impact.

The possession issue is a double edged sword. When you complete 26 of 28, your possessions are going to eat an awful lot of clock. Contrary to the idea that running the ball is the best way to eat clock, actually completing all of your passes eats it better (or at least equally as 100% runs). In fact, in the first half last week, we had those few possessions, even including forcing a turnover.

what really gets to me is the long clock eating drives by the opponent. i love to see brady eat ten minutes, but i hate to see the other team doing it, and it seems to be happening often.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

Shawne Merriman at some point will make a play. Ultimately that play will have NO impact on the outcome of the game, but when he makes the play, he will respond as if he just single-handedly won the SB.

I think that this is his ritual...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. I notice that you don't take the wind into account, which both weather services I looked at had in the 16--18 MPG range, assuming a few gusts, those are the kinds of wind that can disrupt a passing game. the wind chill will be close to zeroF, which favors the pats. i have a lot of confidence that the pats will win, but i think it will be a lower scoring game than people are generally allowing for.

 

[JR4]

Every time i see such grandiose expectations .... I worry :scared:
.... because they never come true.
Please ... why can't you say it's going to be a tough close game.

(edit: actually I do agree with your score prediction .. right now )

 

[bradmahn]

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. I notice that you don't take the wind into account, which both weather services I looked at had in the 16--18 MPG range, assuming a few gusts, those are the kinds of wind that can disrupt a passing game. the wind chill will be close to zeroF, which favors the pats. i have a lot of confidence that the pats will win, but i think it will be a lower scoring game than people are generally allowing for.

Sixteen to eighteen mph winds (from everything I've heard/read/seen) aren't the ones that greatly disrupt the passing game.

Despite all that, unlike a lot of other people, I also think that a gustier game will hinder the Chargers passing offense more than it would the Patriots. Rivers has a weaker arm than Brady and bringing the Patriots defense up to the line of scrimmage is not what the Chargers want to do (I think the Patriots, with Tom Brady and better WRs have the advantage in the intermediate to deep passing game regardless of wind speed, and Brady, Welker, Watson, Stallworth, and Faulk all combine to give the Pats a more than adequate short game). Is cold/windy weather going to make it easier for the Chargers offense to run the ball? I don't think so.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

A lot has been made about the Chargers efforts over the last 8 games of the season, but quite apart from the quality of their opposition is the fact that they haven't played in one cold weather venue with actual cold weather!

On December 2 in Kansas City, which they won, it was 45 degrees.

The following week, at Tennessee, it was a record 73 degrees. (They won that one, 23-17.)

And that's it. Everything else was home, a warm weather venue, or an indoor stadium.

I expect the Chargers to make some noise in the first half, but as the game wears on, I expect the weather, as well as the Patriots' relentless attack, to get to them.

 

[italia44]

This belongs in the predict the score thread.

If every tom,****,etc. starts a thread with a

prediction,we'll have 100 pages by game time.

mods pls move.

 

[letekro]

This belongs in the predict the score thread.

If every tom,****,etc. starts a thread with a

prediction,we'll have 100 pages by game time.

mods pls move.

Uh-oh. Watch out for thunderbolts.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This belongs in the predict the score thread.

If every tom,****,etc. starts a thread with a

prediction,we'll have 100 pages by game time.

mods pls move.

oh you're no fun...:singing:

 

[NYCPatsFan]

- I hope Rivers plays and not Volek. The back-up QBs seem to have it easy against our D, at least during the regular season...

- I expect the Bolts offense to attempt executing a style similar to that of the Eagles - fast, unpredictable and try to leave our D guessing, like have Mr. Tomilnson throw a pass. However, given their playoff inexperience - especially after a huge upset last week, the travel back and forth, and the weather, I doubt whether they can pull it off successfully.

- I think our D will be better prepared this time and will not play like how they played in the first half of the Jags game.

- No thoughts on our offense. I am happy to keep my mouth shut and watch them play.

Hope no injuries to any player and we get a nice solid W!