Contrarians view

[kkpat]

Everyone is predicting a blowout as they predicted against Colts. We know we blew them out in week 2. But SD is very strong defense that
matches good against PATS offense. The CBs who can play man coverage, LBs who are fast and pressure QB or cover short passing game. We saw Eagles/Ravens giving us a tough game with their CBs physically not getting our WRs open easily at the LOS and putting a lot of pressure on TB. I remeber the refs not calling holding when Ravens CBs pulling them even after 10 yards. The key will be how Randy Moss & Co will beat such pressure and get open quickly. If they take such an approach and if the refs don't call penalties, how do we fight back? Any ideas...?

When I watched COLTS-BOLTS game, I saw that couple of balls getting tipped and end up as Interceptions. A tipped ball here and there or a punt/kickoff return for TD can alter a game.

The BOLTS offense is banged up but still a good one which kept on scoring against COLTS matching them TD to TD. Ted Cotrell is Jets DC and he knows our system very well. They won 9 in a row. They will have tough time with travel to/from Indianpolis and to foxboro and injuries.

I still think this game is going to be very competitive. If we let their QB(s) throw all over us like last week, we will be in trouble. I hope we prevail at the end but it is going to be a tough game. Hopefully, we go 14-0 and control the game from there onwards.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Well, some people are predicting a blowout and some are predicting a close game. Personally, I haven't thought that the Patriots would cover the spread most of the games during the second half of the season; they've digressed (or other teams have figured them out which is the same thing). I'm expecting a win of about 10, but nothing would shock me.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

It's the NFL. Teams don't get to the final four for no reason.

Of course this game is losable. A catchable ball of Welker's or Watson's hands that bounces up instead of down and gets picked can change a game. One special teams play can change a game.

Lots of trends on the Patriots side. Home field advantage. West coast team coming east. Injuries. Lots of reason to feel better if you're a Pats fan than a Colts fan. All that said, I'm not seeing too much of the blowout talk you're talking about.

I don't know what the final score will be, but I fully expect that at some point in the fourth quarter, you'll see one team down by no more than 8 points and with the ball, which is my definition of a close game whether it ends up that way in the final score or not.

 

[Oswlek]

Watching the SD/NE playoff game again last night, it was amazing at just how ferocious that SD pass rush. The problem was their predictibility, as NE was able to hold them off just long enough despite being pushed around somewhat.

Unless SD mixes things up, an OL that is playing better along with excellent blocking TEs and RBs should keep them at bay. Frankly, I'm more worried about Castillo in the middle then I am Phillips and Merriman.

I fail to see how Cotrell is a positive in any way. He had one good season where NY allowed a surprisingly low number of points and has lived off of that for some years now. Frankly, Cotrell is the biggest source of my confidence going against SD.

You talk about SD pouncing on opportunites like tipped balls and I agree. At the same time, however, Both of the tipped balls involved open receivers, particularly the Keith play. So what is more predictive, the fact that receivers got open or the fact that they didn't hold onto the ball?

 

[Patradomous]

I'm telling you right now you better hope the wind is not much of a factor.The worse thing that could happen is SD having a few stops in the begining of the game.
Pats better come out fast and hitting and scoring.SD is an immature team and if they are down early its all over.But if they think they can play with the Pats they WILL give them all they can handle.

SD will blitz their ass off and if the wind is factor...well, Houston we have a problem.

 

[Skree]

The only thing that concerns me is how struggling (Eli) or back up quarterbacks seem to have career games on the Pats. I don't know what that is about, I think it must be the scheme the Pats play because it has been so consistent.

So, if Volek plays - I fully expect him to light up our secondary and that might cause the Pats to lose.

Then I realize that the Pats are playing the Chargers who will start fighting amongst themselves the first time something goes wrong and I think there is no way the Pats can lose.

 

[Patradomous]

The only thing that concerns me is how struggling (Eli) or back up quarterbacks seem to have career games on the Pats. I don't know what that is about, I think it must be the scheme the Pats play because it has been so consistent.

So, if Volek plays - I fully expect him to light up our secondary and that might cause the Pats to lose.

Then I realize that the Pats are playing the Chargers who will start fighting amongst themselves the first time something goes wrong and I think there is no way the Pats can lose.
__________________

i agree 100%...backups don't take stupid chances and teams seem to put extra effort into protecting the backup.i don't know how many times I've taken a team with a back up QB as underdog,but its usually a good bet.
But like you,I don't think the Pats lose.No team is tougher in the 4th Q.
But I would love to see a 17-7 halftime score.Because I think 30 points gets it done in the end.

 

[TheRazor]

Granted San Diego has a fierce defense that likes to get in the backfield and pressure the QB into making quick decisions, which in turn results in poorly thrown balls, they get intercepted, dropped, tipped, and/or the QB gets nailed. Their defensive backs are outstanding, as well as their linebackers. Their offensive production speaks for itself.


Herein lies the problem:

To beat the Patriots, you have to limit their firepower.

1) Double/triple cover Moss
2) Blanket Stallworth
3) Blanket Welker
4) spy Gaffney if he is on the field
5) Stop the run
6) watch for checkdowns, and screens
7) dont get caught up in blocking schemes
8) pressure Brady
9) dont bite on gadget plays
10) keep the same amount of intensity for 60 minutes


The Chargers, as good as their defense is, only has 11 guys on their defense. It is damn near impossible to stop an offense whose strength is in every facet of the game.

The Patriots are a threat to go deep- Moss/Stallworth/Gaffney
The Patriots are a threat on short/intermediate passes- Welker/Watson
The patriots are a threat on screens- Faulk/Maroney/Stallworth
The Patriots are a threat on checkdowns- Faulk/Maroney/Watson
The Patriots are a threat on the ground- Maroney/Faulk/Evans

Their blocking is outstanding, and Brady dosnt hold on to the ball once the protection breaks down. But the one thing that stands out most with this offense is that they dont make many mistakes, the fewest in the NFL, from penelities to int's.


Blitz get burnt deep, cover our recievers and blitz, we will burn you with dump offs all night, contain and stop the rush we will burn you midfield.


It comes down to picking your poison, some stone will have to be left unturned.



On Defense, if their back up QB starts it wont be a matter of IF, but WHEN. Belichick will confuse the shyt out of Volek, and refuse Tomilson/Turner of their potential game breaking plays. If Philip Rivers isnt 100% its a wrap.

I dont think this game lives up to the hype at all, I dont see a close game even in the most unbias state of mind.

It wouldnt surprize me in the least if we jump ahead by two to three scores by the first half.

 

[patsox23]

Everyone is predicting a blowout as they predicted against Colts. We know we blew them out in week 2. But SD is very strong defense that matches good against PATS offense.

This is where I stopped paying attention.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

I'm telling you right now you better hope the wind is not much of a factor.The worse thing that could happen is SD having a few stops in the begining of the game.
Pats better come out fast and hitting and scoring.SD is an immature team and if they are down early its all over.But if they think they can play with the Pats they WILL give them all they can handle.

SD will blitz their ass off and if the wind is factor...well, Houston we have a problem.

If SD "blitzes their ass off", as you so eloquently put it, Brady will make them pay.

If that's how it goes down at the beginning of the game, look for a lot of 2 TE sets, as well as Welker in the slot, and Stallworth lined up on that side with him.

The idea is, if SD is showing blitz, with LB/safety, the Pats will flood the zone, and if Welker or Stall are sprung, it's lights out.

Traps involving Maroney, or even better, Faulk, have potential, too.

The SD defense is very fast, as a few have mentioned, and given the right set of circumstances, the Pats could turn that to their advantage, influencing over-pursuit, among other things.

Also, should these blitzes not produce the desired effect, and Brady has time to throw, SD will have a real problem....

 

[khantot]

I'm a Charger fan so obviously I expect the Chargers to win. San Diego was never given a chance against Indy and again is perceived to lose to New England on Sunday. This will be a low scoring game if strong winds persist and BB will see a heavy dose of LT, Turner and Sproles in the backfield, slant, and screen. That Chargers' O-line has been known to wear out defenders. If this turns into a ground game then I expect Kaeding to kick the winning field goal.

Here's my prediction: Chargers 17 - Patriots 14

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

That was a good post, Razor. While I don't necessarily agree with the conclusion you posit in the last sentence, you've pointed out a number of situations that are in fact reality-based.

The problem - the real problem, as I see it - for the SD defense is Welker. That little bugger gets separation like no one else, and if SD decides to double him down, whether it be with 2 LBers, a LB and a nickel or dime back, they'll have opened a real can of worms, via Gaffney and Stallworth. As soon as Brady sees Welker drawing double coverage, he'll know someone is going to be open, and doubtless in a favorable place.

This is a path fraught with dangerous repercussions for the SD defense.

For the SD defensive coaches, this game poses a conundrum that they may not find an answer to. Should be most interesting....

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

I'm a Charger fan so obviously I expect the Chargers to win. San Diego was never given a chance against Indy and again is perceived to lose to New England on Sunday. This will be a low scoring game if strong winds persist and BB will see a heavy dose of LT, Turner and Sproles in the backfield, slant, and screen. That Chargers' O-line has been known to wear out defenders. If this turns into a ground game then I expect Kaeding to kick the winning field goal.

Here's my prediction: Chargers 17 - Patriots 14

I'm not trying to attack the opposing fan, but your prediction makes no sense.

NE faced Baltimore with worse wind than they'll see Sunday and still scored 27 points. Two weeks later they faced the Jets in worse weather than they'll see Sunday and scored 20. NE has scored 20 or more points in all 17 games this year and you think they'll only score 14 on Sunday?

Also, NE has been sustaining long drives all year. SD isn't likely to wear down NE's defenders if only because the offense gives them plenty of rest.

Feel free to have faith in your team, but don't blatantly ignore that NE has the greatest offense ever.

 

[khantot]

I'm not trying to attack the opposing fan, but your prediction makes no sense.

NE faced Baltimore with worse wind than they'll see Sunday and still scored 27 points. Two weeks later they faced the Jets in worse weather than they'll see Sunday and scored 20. NE has scored 20 or more points in all 17 games this year and you think they'll only score 14 on Sunday?

Also, NE has been sustaining long drives all year. SD isn't likely to wear down NE's defenders if only because the offense gives them plenty of rest.

Feel free to have faith in your team, but don't blatantly ignore that NE has the greatest offense ever.

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I respect your opinion but those two teams you mentioned hardly compare to San Diego's defense. The Chargers 'killed' the Ravens this season, and that's with several key players missing from the line-up. Turnovers will greatly matter on Sunday. Despite the lopsided outcome of February's meeting, San Diego's 'lost' defense was still able to get to Brady. That same defense has found itself in the second half of the season.

One thing I can say is that it'll be an exciting game. Just don't expect a blow-out (as predicted).

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Here's my prediction: Chargers 17 - Patriots 14

I give the Chargers more credit than most of my fellow Patriots fans, and although i expect the Patriots will win, a Bolts win would not surprise me. But the Chargers won't win 17-14. Patriots wont win 17-14 either. Patriots are going to put points on the board, Bolts will need to match that.

 

[Flying Fungi]

This is where I stopped paying attention.

I'm with you. I am just not getting sucked into the hype. Last week Jacksonville was THE team that matched up well and was poised to beat the Pats. Before that it was Pittsburgh. And Indy. And Dallas. And San Diego.

Tommy is burning from last year, and if he has to put the team on his back to get to the Super Bowl again, then he'll do just that. 26-28 last week wasn't a fluke. Tommy wants another ring.

That said, SD can win. But I wouldn't count on it.

 

[sieglo]

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One thing I can say is that it'll be an exciting game. Just don't expect a blow-out (as predicted).

Who the hell is predicting a blowout? I don't get where people are seeing this. A blowout is 43-10. That's not going to happen.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

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I respect your opinion but those two teams you mentioned hardly compare to San Diego's defense. The Chargers 'killed' the Ravens this season, and that's with several key players missing from the line-up. Turnovers will greatly matter on Sunday. Despite the lopsided outcome of February's meeting, San Diego's 'lost' defense was still able to get to Brady. That same defense has found itself in the second half of the season.

One thing I can say is that it'll be an exciting game. Just don't expect a blow-out (as predicted).

Right, but Sunday's weather will hardly compare.

The last two times they've played NE has scored 24 (with a lousy group of WRs) and 38 against SD. NE has been quite effective at neutralizing SD's pass rush (remember Merriman sucking oxygen in the 2nd quarter last year? I do.). They just had the greatest offensive season ever.

And you predict them to score 14 points. It just makes no sense whatsoever.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

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I respect your opinion but those two teams you mentioned hardly compare to San Diego's defense. The Chargers 'killed' the Ravens this season, and that's with several key players missing from the line-up. Turnovers will greatly matter on Sunday. Despite the lopsided outcome of February's meeting, San Diego's 'lost' defense was still able to get to Brady. That same defense has found itself in the second half of the season.

One thing I can say is that it'll be an exciting game. Just don't expect a blow-out (as predicted).

I think it's probable the score is relatively close at half time, but the Pats' intensity of play (which they are known for!) begins to take it's toll on the Chargers, and while the Pats score TDs, the Chargers end up with FGs. That's how it's gone down the last half of the season, and I see no reason for that scenario to change Sunday.

It may not be a blowout, but the win will be convincing.

Nobody protects the ball better than the Patriots, and if SD can't get the turnovers, the afternoon/evening will turn out to be a very long one for the lads from Southern California.

 

[DaedalusX]

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I respect your opinion but those two teams you mentioned hardly compare to San Diego's defense. The Chargers 'killed' the Ravens this season, and that's with several key players missing from the line-up. Turnovers will greatly matter on Sunday. Despite the lopsided outcome of February's meeting, San Diego's 'lost' defense was still able to get to Brady. That same defense has found itself in the second half of the season.

One thing I can say is that it'll be an exciting game. Just don't expect a blow-out (as predicted).

The Ravens played all of their starters on defense against the Pats. They didn't against you or really anyone else this year. The Ravens defense, when healthy, is by far the best in the league. Last year they held the Colts to no touchdowns in the playoffs. Your Chargers did no such thing.