I guess it doesn't matter with his opinion, I respect him because he uses analysis to reach his conclusion instead of writing 'the Pats will win because it is the density' or some other crap. Looking at your list.
1) Merrimen has played well down the stretch and was harassing Manning all game, my guess is the Patriots have prepared for the good Merrimen not the invisible one. Light stood his ground in SD last year, in the cold at Gillette he will be fine. I just think the Merriman before roids was unstoppable. post roids he's good, I think he's on the level with colvin maybe a step ahead. real good but not dominating.
2) LT may not be effective but Turner or Sproles can step right in. The Pats will blitz a little more this game but will generally stay conservative. The SD is a sitting duck, it doesn't matter who plays. the question will be... can the pats contain turner. i expect seymour to ahve a big game against mcneil
3) Rodney did great against Clark but not so good against Whitten. If the Patriots play in a nickel package the Chargers will run the ball down their throat, at heart SD is still a power running team.the pats will not be in nickel on early downs. gates will not be a major factor. he won't last the entire game. he might make 2 or 3 catches but he won't be a game changer.4) Seymour & Harrison are huge, the weather may keep the Patriots under 30. I don't think his 35-17 score is conservative, I actually expect about the same as Jacksonville - 28-20.
