Charger/Pats preview...and overview

[patfanken]

OK, OK, I was wrong in my prediction that the Colts woud be the Pats opponent in the AFCCG. I think I made that assessment because of the obvious simatry (sp?) because of last year, and the nice rivalry and history that's evolved with the Colts... But also, contrary to popular wisdom, I felt the Colts would be the LESS dangerous opponent. Here's why!

1. I thought the match up of special teams was a real positive match up for the Pats
2. I thought that without Freeney, the Colts would have a very difficult time putting any consistent pressure on Brady, just like they didn't put much pressure on Rivers. And having no pressure on Brady would hurt a lot more than it would with the Chargers.
3. I was unafraid of the Colts running game, it had done NOTHING down the stretch, while the Pats run defense was improving...and they didn't do anything on the ground on Sunday.
4. I felt that the Pats having the homefield advantage, in the cold, would be a big advantage,
5. I felt the size advantage the Pats had on the Colts D would be big as the game goes along, especially in the running game.

Like I said, there would have been some Karmic justice beating the Colts to a pulp for the AFCCG, and nothing would have been better than to get a shot of Polian eating crow after the Pats crushed his team... But that is NOT going happen. Its the Chargers we are going to face and in a lot of ways they present a tougher threat than the Colts. Lets take a look at their strengths and how they play against the Pats.

1. They have a DL/LB corps that CAN put pressure on Brady without a lot of Blitzing. Castillo, Williams, Olshansky, and Merriman have the ability to put consistent pressure on Brady. Phillips is a good rushing OLB, so the Pats will have to be balanced with 2 guys who have rush ability on each side, and potential pressure up the middle with Williams and Olshansky

2. Cromartie is playing at a very high level and has the size and freak athletism possibly cover a Randy Moss one on one, which frees up people to cover the rest of the Pats receivers

3. Regardless of who is the RB the Chargers have a running game that matches up with what the Jags can present

4. The Charger OL was the real reason Rivers had time and the runners had openings. This is a an OL that is better than the Colt's

5. Finally this is a team that NOW has great mental toughness and resiliancy, because not only did they have to overcome a tough homefield DISadvantage, injuries to their top 3 offensive players; they had to overcome the fact that nearly every big call went against them including the holding on the pick return and the phantom PI that the Colts seem to get in very big game.

6. SD has a better special teams group than the Colts, so we somewhat lose THAT big advantage.

Now I'm not saying that the Charger WILL beat us. We have a lot of advantages this week, even though its not the Colts. Let me just mention a few.

1. First there is the simple logistics of the Chargers having to take a long trip back to SD, and THEN turn around in about 4 days and come all the way EAST. That's even tougher than what we had to do LAST year.

2. This will be their 3rd tough game in a row. It will be difficult for them to regain the same intensity after such an emotional victory. Remember this isn't the most emotionally stable team to begin with, nor are they led by a guy who can easily reign that in.

3. They ARE hurt. I'm fairly confident they both LT and Rivers will play. I was very surprised, given how well they BOTH looked on the side line, that neither came back. Rivers particularly

4. Lets not foget that for all the Merriman antics and the talent they have, THIS SD Defense allow Manning to pass for over 400 yds through the air, and the Pats have a better, more explosive passing attack than the Colts, with a better offensive line.

5. The Pats running defense is getting better and better. The Giants and Jags profess to have better than average running games, and NEITHER broke 100 rushing yds. Though I'm sure the national media will ignore this and spend the rest of this week talking about the Pats vunerability vs the run.

6. The home field AND the weather will both be BIG advantages for the Pats. Next week promises to be VERY cold, something that most Pats have had experience with, and very few of the Chargers have.

General comments on today's action.

1. This has to be VERY satisfying for Norv Turner. He's taken a lot of flack from fans, media types.....and me this year, and now has his team just one step from the superbowl and 2 more post season wins than Marty.

2. On the other hand this has to be very embarassing to Wade Phillips. The Cowboy's lack to sharpness, and their mental mistakes are an indication that being such a "player's coach" can hurt a team. The Cowboys have being going down hill for several games now, and the fact that THAT offense with all those weapons couldn't score against a Giant secondary that was so desparate for ANY DBs, I wouldn't have been surprise to see Earthwind out there. BTW- I just LOVED the shot of Jones on the sidelines at the end of the game. He looked like he was just going to CRACK that facelift in half.

3. I'm not sure who I want in the Superbowl. It would be great to have redemption aganist the Packers for the 95 team, yet on the other hand wouldn't it be even better to see the "Manning pouty face:"...on ANOTHER Manning....PLUS putting ANOTHER pasting on the city of NY. (though you have to be a Boston Pats fan to understand the last part.

Look forward to breakng this down in detail during the week.

 

[eom]

tl;dr

Look forward to breakng this down in detail during the week.

 

[patsox23]

Ken, always love your stuff, but you're F-ing nuts. The Colts were a FAR bigger threat to us. The Chargers are like Jax but not as good. We waltz to Arizona. Indy would've been tough.

 

[BelichickFan]

I usually agree with most of your stuff Ken but, jeez, in a one game situation give me Rivers. Manning scares the crap out of me. Not Rivers.

You mentioned the travel the extra game, the weather all nice. Then there's HUGE advantages is Bill and Tom over Norvell and Phillip. Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates probably play but they won't be the players the back of their jersey says.

The Chargers' winning streak is against total crap except for today's game. Their Home/Road split is HUGE with their point differential on the road being just barely over break even. Here is is. Chargers, Home 222-109, Road 190-175.

Cromartie is a big play guy for sure but Brady hardly ever throws INTs and Cromartie plays somewhat soft.

The SD lines aren't what they were last year - the Chargers got pressure here and there on Manning but overall didn't get very much.

Is the SD kicker still not 100% ? In a dome where Vinatieri was kicking his kickoffs 4 yards deep, the SD kicker wasn't even reaching the end zone.

 

[sanvara]

Very shrewd and savvy assessment patfanken. Nice work.

 

[BoltsFan]

OK, OK, I was wrong in my prediction that the Colts woud be the Pats opponent in the AFCCG. I think I made that assessment because of the obvious simatry (sp?) because of last year, and the nice rivalry and history that's evolved with the Colts... But also, contrary to popular wisdom, I felt the Colts would be the LESS dangerous opponent. Here's why!

1. I thought the match up of special teams was a real positive match up for the Pats
2. I thought that without Freeney, the Colts would have a very difficult time putting any consistent pressure on Brady, just like they didn't put much pressure on Rivers. And having no pressure on Brady would hurt a lot more than it would with the Chargers.
3. I was unafraid of the Colts running game, it had done NOTHING down the stretch, while the Pats run defense was improving...and they didn't do anything on the ground on Sunday.
4. I felt that the Pats having the homefield advantage, in the cold, would be a big advantage,
5. I felt the size advantage the Pats had on the Colts D would be big as the game goes along, especially in the running game.

Like I said, there would have been some Karmic justice beating the Colts to a pulp for the AFCCG, and nothing would have been better than to get a shot of Polian eating crow after the Pats crushed his team... But that is NOT going happen. Its the Chargers we are going to face and in a lot of ways they present a tougher threat than the Colts. Lets take a look at their strengths and how they play against the Pats.

1. They have a DL/LB corps that CAN put pressure on Brady without a lot of Blitzing. Castillo, Williams, Olshansky, and Merriman have the ability to put consistent pressure on Brady. Phillips is a good rushing OLB, so the Pats will have to be balanced with 2 guys who have rush ability on each side, and potential pressure up the middle with Williams and Olshansky

2. Cromartie is playing at a very high level and has the size and freak athletism possibly cover a Randy Moss one on one, which frees up people to cover the rest of the Pats receivers

3. Regardless of who is the RB the Chargers have a running game that matches up with what the Jags can present

4. The Charger OL was the real reason Rivers had time and the runners had openings. This is a an OL that is better than the Colt's

5. Finally this is a team that NOW has great mental toughness and resiliancy, because not only did they have to overcome a tough homefield DISadvantage, injuries to their top 3 offensive players; they had to overcome the fact that nearly every big call went against them including the holding on the pick return and the phantom PI that the Colts seem to get in very big game.

6. SD has a better special teams group than the Colts, so we somewhat lose THAT big advantage.

Now I'm not saying that the Charger WILL beat us. We have a lot of advantages this week, even though its not the Colts. Let me just mention a few.

1. First there is the simple logistics of the Chargers having to take a long trip back to SD, and THEN turn around in about 4 days and come all the way EAST. That's even tougher than what we had to do LAST year.

2. This will be their 3rd tough game in a row. It will be difficult for them to regain the same intensity after such an emotional victory. Remember this isn't the most emotionally stable team to begin with, nor are they led by a guy who can easily reign that in.

3. They ARE hurt. I'm fairly confident they both LT and Rivers will play. I was very surprised, given how well they BOTH looked on the side line, that neither came back. Rivers particularly

4. Lets not foget that for all the Merriman antics and the talent they have, THIS SD Defense allow Manning to pass for over 400 yds through the air, and the Pats have a better, more explosive passing attack than the Colts, with a better offensive line.

5. The Pats running defense is getting better and better. The Giants and Jags profess to have better than average running games, and NEITHER broke 100 rushing yds. Though I'm sure the national media will ignore this and spend the rest of this week talking about the Pats vunerability vs the run.

6. The home field AND the weather will both be BIG advantages for the Pats. Next week promises to be VERY cold, something that most Pats have had experience with, and very few of the Chargers have.

General comments on today's action.

1. This has to be VERY satisfying for Norv Turner. He's taken a lot of flack from fans, media types.....and me this year, and now has his team just one step from the superbowl and 2 more post season wins than Marty.

2. On the other hand this has to be very embarassing to Wade Phillips. The Cowboy's lack to sharpness, and their mental mistakes are an indication that being such a "player's coach" can hurt a team. The Cowboys have being going down hill for several games now, and the fact that THAT offense with all those weapons couldn't score against a Giant secondary that was so desparate for ANY DBs, I wouldn't have been surprise to see Earthwind out there. BTW- I just LOVED the shot of Jones on the sidelines at the end of the game. He looked like he was just going to CRACK that facelift in half.

3. I'm not sure who I want in the Superbowl. It would be great to have redemption aganist the Packers for the 95 team, yet on the other hand wouldn't it be even better to see the "Manning pouty face:"...on ANOTHER Manning....PLUS putting ANOTHER pasting on the city of NY. (though you have to be a Boston Pats fan to understand the last part.

Look forward to breakng this down in detail during the week.

Nice analysis.

Without going on, I see it this way. The pats are who they are and all you pats fans know this. I'm on record with what I think of this team. It's not the most talented. But it is the most dangerous because it's a complete team that plays to win and understands how to win better than any team thus far this century.

Bottom line, I know my Bolts can hang if we're healthy enough to bring a reasonable facsimile of our A game. But much like today, we're gonna have to play damn hard for a full 60 minutes. Last time we played the pats in the post season we played pretty well for about 52-53 minutes. Obviously we let the last 7-8 slip away.

I can tell you this. I am certain the Bolts will be highly motivated when they get to Foxboro. You can look it up but the team just tends to play better as a big dog. Not predicting any outcomes here. But I wouldn't be shocked if the Bolts won. Must be the homer in me.

 

[swuster]

Cromartie tends to give the WRs too much cushion - you can see a lot of receivers beating him with cutbacks or flat patterns. I don't know if the coaching staff is planning on putting him on Moss but I highly doubt that we are going to hope that we can keep just one man on him and shut him down. And if even if it happens, the Pats have more than enough options to go to.

You're probably giving Rivers a little too much credit, Ken. He's stepped up a bit over the past few games out of necessity, with all the injured players, but I would take Manning any day.

I'm guessing the "key" matchup - if you can call it that - is the Pats O-line (which is excellent, as we've seen all season) against the Chargers' pass rush.

We are definitely in a big hole and there's no doubt that all the pieces are going to have to line up near perfectly if we want to come away with a win. Even so, I'll be rooting for the Chargers all the way!

 

[AzPatsFan]

OK, OK, I was wrong in my prediction that the Colts woud be the Pats opponent in the AFCCG. I think I made that assessment because of the obvious simatry (sp?) because of last year, and the nice rivalry and history that's evolved with the Colts... But also, contrary to popular wisdom, I felt the Colts would be the LESS dangerous opponent. Here's why!

1. I thought the match up of special teams was a real positive match up for the Pats
2. I thought that without Freeney, the Colts would have a very difficult time putting any consistent pressure on Brady, just like they didn't put much pressure on Rivers. And having no pressure on Brady would hurt a lot more than it would with the Chargers.
3. I was unafraid of the Colts running game, it had done NOTHING down the stretch, while the Pats run defense was improving...and they didn't do anything on the ground on Sunday.
4. I felt that the Pats having the homefield advantage, in the cold, would be a big advantage,
5. I felt the size advantage the Pats had on the Colts D would be big as the game goes along, especially in the running game.

Like I said, there would have been some Karmic justice beating the Colts to a pulp for the AFCCG, and nothing would have been better than to get a shot of Polian eating crow after the Pats crushed his team... But that is NOT going happen. Its the Chargers we are going to face and in a lot of ways they present a tougher threat than the Colts. Lets take a look at their strengths and how they play against the Pats.

1. They have a DL/LB corps that CAN put pressure on Brady without a lot of Blitzing. Castillo, Williams, Olshansky, and Merriman have the ability to put consistent pressure on Brady. Phillips is a good rushing OLB, so the Pats will have to be balanced with 2 guys who have rush ability on each side, and potential pressure up the middle with Williams and Olshansky

2. Cromartie is playing at a very high level and has the size and freak athletism possibly cover a Randy Moss one on one, which frees up people to cover the rest of the Pats receivers

3. Regardless of who is the RB the Chargers have a running game that matches up with what the Jags can present

4. The Charger OL was the real reason Rivers had time and the runners had openings. This is a an OL that is better than the Colt's

5. Finally this is a team that NOW has great mental toughness and resiliancy, because not only did they have to overcome a tough homefield DISadvantage, injuries to their top 3 offensive players; they had to overcome the fact that nearly every big call went against them including the holding on the pick return and the phantom PI that the Colts seem to get in very big game.

6. SD has a better special teams group than the Colts, so we somewhat lose THAT big advantage.

Now I'm not saying that the Charger WILL beat us. We have a lot of advantages this week, even though its not the Colts. Let me just mention a few.

1. First there is the simple logistics of the Chargers having to take a long trip back to SD, and THEN turn around in about 4 days and come all the way EAST. That's even tougher than what we had to do LAST year.

2. This will be their 3rd tough game in a row. It will be difficult for them to regain the same intensity after such an emotional victory. Remember this isn't the most emotionally stable team to begin with, nor are they led by a guy who can easily reign that in.

3. They ARE hurt. I'm fairly confident they both LT and Rivers will play. I was very surprised, given how well they BOTH looked on the side line, that neither came back. Rivers particularly

4. Lets not foget that for all the Merriman antics and the talent they have, THIS SD Defense allow Manning to pass for over 400 yds through the air, and the Pats have a better, more explosive passing attack than the Colts, with a better offensive line.

5. The Pats running defense is getting better and better. The Giants and Jags profess to have better than average running games, and NEITHER broke 100 rushing yds. Though I'm sure the national media will ignore this and spend the rest of this week talking about the Pats vunerability vs the run.

6. The home field AND the weather will both be BIG advantages for the Pats. Next week promises to be VERY cold, something that most Pats have had experience with, and very few of the Chargers have.

General comments on today's action.

1. This has to be VERY satisfying for Norv Turner. He's taken a lot of flack from fans, media types.....and me this year, and now has his team just one step from the superbowl and 2 more post season wins than Marty.

2. On the other hand this has to be very embarassing to Wade Phillips. The Cowboy's lack to sharpness, and their mental mistakes are an indication that being such a "player's coach" can hurt a team. The Cowboys have being going down hill for several games now, and the fact that THAT offense with all those weapons couldn't score against a Giant secondary that was so desparate for ANY DBs, I wouldn't have been surprise to see Earthwind out there. BTW- I just LOVED the shot of Jones on the sidelines at the end of the game. He looked like he was just going to CRACK that facelift in half.

3. I'm not sure who I want in the Superbowl. It would be great to have redemption aganist the Packers for the 95 team, yet on the other hand wouldn't it be even better to see the "Manning pouty face:"...on ANOTHER Manning....PLUS putting ANOTHER pasting on the city of NY. (though you have to be a Boston Pats fan to understand the last part.

Look forward to breakng this down in detail during the week.

I am an old Boston Patriots fan and did want to contest a certain Lightning Bolt team for an AFL championship game in 63 and running up the score.

That needs to be avenged. This is the AFCCG and the latter day equivlaent. While I think it would be delicious if Pay-me-a-ton's 'lil brother got to the Superbowl, and he did not, I want the Packers. We need to avenge a certain awful time in February 96.

As an old time Boston Pats fan I want to paste the Nieuw Yawk Futball Giants of Joisey whenever I can, but mostly I want to simply hate them like all Nieuw Yawk teams; and ignore and forget the bahstids.

 

[alamo]

The Chargers showed today they can hit hard. They showed that their depth is very good, and the line play is good enough that a backup QB and a backup runner and a gimpy tight end can still get the job done. They will be as tough to beat, in different ways, as the Colts would have been.

Even if the Colts might have been easier, I am still happy the Colts lost. I am MUCH calmer right now than I would have been. This isn't because I think the Chargers would be easier, it's because the possibility of the Colts repeating as SB champs is gone. As the AFGCG has been approaching recently I have had nightmares that not only might the Pats not win the SB, but that the Colts would win again. A Colts win would have been ten times as devastating. Now that can't happen.

 

[Rawky77]

Please tell how this Bolts team differs from the one we played last year in their house? Yes they have Chambers this yr but we have been successful against him in Miami in the past.

Maybe i am senile but as i remember it TB with a crappy receiving core, not one of whom is still on the team except for Gaffney and Brown, beat this Bolts team in their own house and we did not have Rodney due to injury.

Tell me again how much pressure TB was under in that game and how it overwhelmed him.

The only difference for this team is Norv Turner and i am still not convinced that is a plus. Also this yr they are the ones banged up not us.

The O line will give TB time enough and with MOSS, Welker, Stallworth and a healthy Watson we will score far more then they can respond too.

 

[Horace's Ivories]

Nice analysis.
I also think that while the Chargers have some big hitters in the secondary they arent super fast. The Colts couldnt exploit that as althought they have great route runners they have limited speed demon WRs. Pats WR speed/quickness should be a big edge. Also it was interesting to see the Colts D fold nicely in the second half against the Bolt's fine O-line. Same thing happened in the earlier Pats win. On the contrary seems like the larger and stronger (slower) Pat D's modus operandi is to get better as the game wears. That should help if the game is close in the 4th QTR.

 

[csfoster]

The Chargers showed today they can hit hard. They showed that their depth is very good, and the line play is good enough that a backup QB and a backup runner and a gimpy tight end can still get the job done. They will be as tough to beat, in different ways, as the Colts would have been.

Even if the Colts might have been easier, I am still happy the Colts lost. I am MUCH calmer right now than I would have been. This isn't because I think the Chargers would be easier, it's because the possibility of the Colts repeating as SB champs is gone. As the AFGCG has been approaching recently I have had nightmares that not only might the Pats not win the SB, but that the Colts would win again. A Colts win would have been ten times as devastating. Now that can't happen.

True but as it is now with the Patriots on the virtual verge of being forever immortalized as The Greatest Football Team Ever, a Pats loss to the Chargers will be one hundred times more devastating which is why it is understandable that not a single Pats Fan is willing to go there.

 

[Brady to Brown]

Great post as usual Ken.

While I agree with you 99% of the time on this one I can't agree.

The Patriots have the Chargers number. They will shut down LT, like they did the last time. The Chargers offense will be placed on Rivers shoulders

On offense the Patriots will roll. I don't believe they punted the ball in the game earlier this year and I expect we will see much the same this week. The Patriots are far better on offense than they were 15 games ago.

Patriots in a laugher. 42 - 13.

 

[Brady to Brown]

True but as it is now with the Patriots on the virtual verge of being forever immortalized as The Greatest Football Team Ever, a Pats loss to the Chargers will be one hundred times more devastating which is why it is understandable that not a single Pats Fan is willing to go there.

I have heard that crap for the past 7 games. Its old dude.

 

[NEPatriot]

Please tell how this Bolts team differs from the one we played last year in their house? Yes they have Chambers this yr but we have been successful against him in Miami in the past.

Maybe i am senile but as i remember it TB with a crappy receiving core, not one of whom is still on the team except for Gaffney and Brown, beat this Bolts team in their own house and we did not have Rodney due to injury.

Tell me again how much pressure TB was under in that game and how it overwhelmed him.

The only difference for this team is Norv Turner and i am still not convinced that is a plus. Also this yr they are the ones banged up not us.

The O line will give TB time enough and with MOSS, Welker, Stallworth and a healthy Watson we will score far more then they can respond too.

A couple of major differences. I wouldn't discount the addition of Chambers. He takes alot of the pressure of Gates. I think the biggest difference is that the team has adjusted to Norv Turner. There seems to be a buy in now. I do think though that the travel and weather will definitely be to our advantage.

 

[csfoster]

I have heard that crap for the past 7 games. Its old dude.

Make that a thousand times more devastating dude.

While it will take a substantially greater effort to beat your great team than it did the Colts, do not so causally underestimate the Bolts ability and willingness to do so.

Your best bet is to prepare for the worse and hope for the best as we will.

 

[BelichickFan]

A couple of major differences. I wouldn't discount the addition of Chambers. He takes alot of the pressure of Gates.

Chambers is below average. Jackson is coming on. Gates might as well be out the way he's running. That compared to our crew at WR/TE

 

[jczxohn1]

Nice analysis, ken.
While many people complain about calls that favor the Colts at home, the football gods certainly favored the Chargers. Three plays, a lost fumble by Harrison, and two deflected pass interceptions, weighed heavily in the outcome of the game. If you have to win by that, you ain't eatin' regular.

 

[BoltsFan]

Nice analysis, ken.
While many people complain about calls that favor the Colts at home, the football gods certainly favored the Chargers. Three plays, a lost fumble by Harrison, and two deflected pass interceptions, weighed heavily in the outcome of the game. If you have to win by that, you ain't eatin' regular.

You win anyway you can and the pats damn well know that. How regular were you eating when NE beat the Bolts last postseason. Stupid penalties, dropped ints, and a fortunate strip is what got it done for NE. As a matter of fact NE has pulled more victories out of their arse than any other team this century also. That's why you've got the 3 rings.

You eat what you can when you can.

 

[eom]

You win anyway you can and the pats damn well know that. How regular were you eating when NE beat the Bolts last postseason. Stupid penalties, dropped ints, and a fortunate is what got it done for NE.

oh no he di'int!