Football Outsiders and Jags' Running Game

[BelichickFan]

If you believe their stats, it'll make you feel better. The only concern we should have is long, sustained, clock killing drives that wear us out, beat us down and steal the momentum.

Well, Football Outsiders' stats say that's not happening.

Looking at their OL stats : (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php)

The Power Success shows 3rd and 4th down with 2 or less yards to go. Jacksonville is ranked 18th.

The Stuffed rank shows "Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down". Jacksonville is ranked 23rd.

For reference, NE is ranked 9th in Power Success and 3rd (that's good) in Stuffed.

Now, they're not saying Jacksonville's running game sucks. They are a very good 2nd in 10+ yard runs (we're 26th). But I'm not worried about that. We'll give up some longish runs, that's a given. However we won't score 13 points. We'll very likely score 30+ and Jacksonville won't beat, or come close to, that with a few long runs.

As you would expect from the numbers above, Taylor and Jones-Drew are ranked as good RB, 9th and 22nd in the league (Maroney is 6th, sorry haters). But, again, their Success Rate (you can see the definition at the link, you can probably guess approximately) is 34th and 28th whereas Maroney's is 2nd. To put % to that, Taylor and Jones-Drew have successful runs 45% and 46% respectively whereas Maroney does 58%.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

Again, the Jags' running game is good - but it's a big play running game that'll get stuffed more than most and then crack a big one. Honestly that doesn't concern me in the least.

 

[FibSeq13478]

If you believe their stats, it'll make you feel better. The only concern we should have is long, sustained, clock killing drives that wear us out, beat us down and steal the momentum.

Well, Football Outsiders' stats say that's not happening.

Looking at their OL stats : (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php)

The Power Success shows 3rd and 4th down with 2 or less yards to go. Jacksonville is ranked 18th.

The Stuffed rank shows "Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down". Jacksonville is ranked 23rd.

For reference, NE is ranked 9th in Power Success and 3rd (that's good) in Stuffed.

Now, they're not saying Jacksonville's running game sucks. They are a very good 2nd in 10+ yard runs (we're 26th). But I'm not worried about that. We'll give up some longish runs, that's a given. However we won't score 13 points. We'll very likely score 30+ and Jacksonville won't beat, or come close to, that with a few long runs.

As you would expect from the numbers above, Taylor and Jones-Drew are ranked as good RB, 9th and 22nd in the league (Maroney is 6th, sorry haters). But, again, their Success Rate (you can see the definition at the link, you can probably guess approximately) is 34th and 28th whereas Maroney's is 2nd. To put % to that, Taylor and Jones-Drew have successful runs 45% and 46% respectively whereas Maroney does 58%.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

Again, the Jags' running game is good - but it's a big play running game that'll get stuffed more than most and then crack a big one. Honestly that doesn't concern me in the least.

I think the success rate of Pats running game is tied to the overall effectiveness of Pats offense. They have been able to call run plays that are more likely to succeed given that they have had equally good or better pass play options. They haven't had to force run plays in lower success situations.

 

[Jagwyer]

If you believe their stats, it'll make you feel better. The only concern we should have is long, sustained, clock killing drives that wear us out, beat us down and steal the momentum.

Well, Football Outsiders' stats say that's not happening.

Looking at their OL stats : (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol.php)

The Power Success shows 3rd and 4th down with 2 or less yards to go. Jacksonville is ranked 18th.

The Stuffed rank shows "Percentage of runs that result in (on first down) zero or negative gain or (on second through fourth down) less than one-fourth the yards needed for another first down". Jacksonville is ranked 23rd.

For reference, NE is ranked 9th in Power Success and 3rd (that's good) in Stuffed.

Now, they're not saying Jacksonville's running game sucks. They are a very good 2nd in 10+ yard runs (we're 26th). But I'm not worried about that. We'll give up some longish runs, that's a given. However we won't score 13 points. We'll very likely score 30+ and Jacksonville won't beat, or come close to, that with a few long runs.

As you would expect from the numbers above, Taylor and Jones-Drew are ranked as good RB, 9th and 22nd in the league (Maroney is 6th, sorry haters). But, again, their Success Rate (you can see the definition at the link, you can probably guess approximately) is 34th and 28th whereas Maroney's is 2nd. To put % to that, Taylor and Jones-Drew have successful runs 45% and 46% respectively whereas Maroney does 58%.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php

Again, the Jags' running game is good - but it's a big play running game that'll get stuffed more than most and then crack a big one. Honestly that doesn't concern me in the least.

LOL you never did any statistical analysis, have you. you can make the numbers what you want them to be. Ths Pats are a throwing team and very good at it. So when they do decide to run the ball, of course they will have success. If you set up a defense to stop the Pats running game your in trouble. More than likely your in trouble anyway but if you key on stopping the run your not a good coach.

 

[bradmahn]

LOL you never did any statistical analysis, have you. you can make the numbers what you want them to be. Ths Pats are a throwing team and very good at it. So when they do decide to run the ball, of course they will have success. If you set up a defense to stop the Pats running game your in trouble. More than likely your in trouble anyway but if you key on stopping the run your not a good coach.

"LOL you never did <<reading comprehension,>> have you."

Where did the OP say that the Patriots offense was predicated on the run, or that the Jaguars should focus on stopping the run?

 

[Jagwyer]

"LOL you never did <<reading comprehension,>> have you."

Where did the OP say that the Patriots offense was predicated on the run, or that the Jaguars should focus on stopping the run?

LOL grammical nazi's never seem to amaze me. Yes I was wrong. Whne yuo hsa on cmoebcak yuo og atfer grmamical eorrrs. Good job.

 

[BelichickFan]

LOL you never did any statistical analysis, have you. you can make the numbers what you want them to be. Ths Pats are a throwing team and very good at it. So when they do decide to run the ball, of course they will have success. If you set up a defense to stop the Pats running game your in trouble. More than likely your in trouble anyway but if you key on stopping the run your not a good coach.

I just threw the Patriots numbers in for fun.

I was talking about the Jaguars' running game and showing it's a big play, boom or bust running game, not a grind it out, kick your ass running game.

 

[Jagwyer]

I just threw the Patriots numbers in for fun.

I was talking about the Jaguars' running game and showing it's a big play, boom or bust running game, not a grind it out, kick your ass running game.

See thats what I mean. The Jags had a 20,18,17 and multiple over 10 play drives this year. Thats what they do. Now granted they did have big play running plays also but the majority of there scores were on long sustained drives.

 

[BelichickFan]

See thats what I mean. The Jags had a 20,18,17 and multiple over 10 play drives this year. Thats what they do. Now granted they did have big play running plays also but the majority of there scores were on long sustained drives.

I didn't say they had no long drives. They've played 17 games, I'm sure they did. But the numbers show they're average at short yard running and below average at consistently getting what's needed on a given run.

That doesn't mean they never do it, just that they don't do it enough for me to worry about.

 

[Jagwyer]

I didn't say they had no long drives. They've played 17 games, I'm sure they did. But the numbers show they're average at short yard running and below average at consistently getting what's needed on a given run.

That doesn't mean they never do it, just that they don't do it enough for me to worry about.

They did it consistently on the games they won.

 

[bradmahn]

LOL grammical nazi's never seem to amaze me. Yes I was wrong. Whne yuo hsa on cmoebcak yuo og atfer grmamical eorrrs. Good job.

Where in this:

LOL you never did any statistical analysis, have you. you can make the numbers what you want them to be. Ths Pats are a throwing team and very good at it. So when they do decide to run the ball, of course they will have success. If you set up a defense to stop the Pats running game your in trouble. More than likely your in trouble anyway but if you key on stopping the run your not a good coach.

did you make a point to which I needed a come back? The Patriots are a passing offense (a historically great passing offense) and stupid coaches (Wade Phillips) make it their goal to stop the running game of the greatest passing offense ever. But what do the Patriots passing game and the goals of the opposing coaches have to do with the original poster's comments about the Jaguars' running game?

I don't care about poor grammar or spelling mistakes; I will point out blatantly ignorant and/or stupid comments.

 

[RayClay]

I think the success rate of Pats running game is tied to the overall effectiveness of Pats offense. They have been able to call run plays that are more likely to succeed given that they have had equally good or better pass play options. They haven't had to force run plays in lower success situations.

That's what I was going to say.

Seriously, raw data doesn't mean much, it's how you interpret it. Will Brady throw a 2 yard pass to Welker for a first down and complete it 80% of the time?

Yes, which makes other options more effective.

Their running games a given and slow sustained drives won't get them enough points to win anyway. Garrard has to gamble and hit at least twice before they worry about clock killin' drives.

 

[spacecrime]

Ths Pats are a throwing team and very good at it. So when they do decide to run the ball, of course they will have success.

So you are saying we are successful when we pass and when we run. Well, I agree.

If you set up a defense to stop the Pats running game your in trouble. More than likely your in trouble anyway but if you key on stopping the run your not a good coach.

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[Tommysgirl]

So you are saying we are successful when we pass and when we run. Well, I agree.

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Aaah, the Jaguars fans pearls of wisdom. They are enjoyable.