Official Matchup Discussions: Jax @ NE

[xmarkd400x]

This thread is to discuss the matchups in the upcoming playoff game. Some examples are QB v QB, OL v OL, OL v DL, player v player, coach v coach, etc.

I'll start with Jax DL v. NE OL.

CHFF Analysis

The New England offensive line was #1 in offensive hog index (per CHFF). They gained 4.1 YPA rushing - 14th in the league, had a negative pass play 4.86% of dropbacks (a NPP is a sack/INT) - 2nd in the league, and had a 48.2% success rate on 3rd down - good for 2nd in the league.

The Jacksonville defensive line was tied for 12th in defensive hog index (again, per CHFF). They allowed 4.12 YPA on the ground - 17th in the league, forced the opposing offense into a negative pass play 9.83% of the time - 10th in the league, and allowed opposing offenses to convert a 3rd down 39.8% of the time - 16th in the league.

Going by CHFF's numbers, the Patriots best in the league offensive line should have a fairly successful day against a slightly better than average Jacksonville defensive front.

Sack Analysis (But they are just Miniburgers!)

Jaguars
The Jaguars sacked opposing QBs 37 times this year, good for 9th in the league (2.3 per game - tied with 3 other clubs). Below is a breakdown of how Jacksonville fared against top-rated offensive lines (top rated meaning rated 10 or better in CHFF's offensive hog index) vs. Jacksonville's success against average and bottom-rated offensive lines.

How has Jacksonville fared against top rated offensive lines this year in terms of sacks? (There are 12 teams in the top 10 due to a 3-way tie at tenth)

• Denver (10t in CHFF Offensive Hogs Index) - 3 sacks
• Indianapolis (5) - 2 sacks
• New Orleans (8) - 2 sacks
• San Diego (10t) - 0 sacks
• Indianapolis (5) - 1 sack

Against top-10 rated lines, the Jaguars totalled 8 sacks in 5 games, good for an average of 1.6 sacks/game. In 11 games against Ten (x2), Houston (x2), Atlanta, KC, TB, Buffalo, Carolina, Pitt, and Oakland, they registered 29 sacks; good for 2.6 sacks/game.

So, in 69% of their games against lower-rated offensive lines, the Jaguars accounted for 78% of their sacks. In 31% of their games against higher rated offensive lines, the Jaguars accounted for 22% of their sacks.

Patriots
New England quarterbacks have been sacked 21 times this year (1.3 per game) - good for 5th in the league. Below is a breakdown of how New England fared against top 10 rated defensive fronts (Again going by CHFF -- this time by the defensive hog index).
Here is a list of how NE performed against each one:

• San Diego (5t) - 2 sacks
• Dallas (7t) - 3 sacks
• Washington (9t) - 1 sack
• Baltimore (2) - 3 sacks
• Giants (1) - 1 sack

In 5 games against top-10 defensive hogs, the Patriots allowed 10 sacks or 2 per game.

In 11 games against the 22 teams not in the top 10, New England allowed 11 sacks, or 1 per game.

Sack Conclusion
Jacksonville's defensive front garners half as many sacks per game against top-10 rated offensive fronts (Pats are #1). The Patriots offensive line allows half as many sacks per game to sub-10 rated defensive fronts (Jags are #12).

Overall Conclusion
The stats point to the Patriots offensive line outplaying the Jacksonville defensive front Saturday night. Personally, I think Jacksonville will need to bring more than their 4 down linemen to pressure Brady. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, in games against defensive fronts not rated in the top 10, he has boasted a QB rating of over 100 eight times.

 

[neuronet]

Fantastic analysis. I also expect them to bring the extra guy(s) into the box, as per the "blueprint." There is no other good way to pressure Brady.

Of course, everyone has been blitzing the Pats this year, and as you point out it doesn't always work.

The question is, will the Jaguars be more like the Eagles (ranked 11th in HOG index, with the Jaguars 12th), or more like Pittsburgh (21st)? If you ran this analysis through the statistics on the Eagles, would you have predicted their ability to shut down Brady's mobility in the pocket? I guess that's the problem with statistics: they'll show you averages but not the outliers. Does Jacksonville have the flexibility, coaching, and talent to be an outlier? That's something I think only looking at the specifics of the situation can tell.

As for specifics, I frankly don't know many specifics about the Jacksonville defensive formations. E.g., do they do lots of zone blitz? Is the 4-3 defense their standard? I wish I could see what Belichick is thinking right now.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Well to boil it down, Jacksonville won't be able to bring pressure with just their front 4. If they drop back defenders to stop the pass, that gives Brady all day to pick em apart. If they put extra rushers in the box, that means Moss or Welker, or another Pat receiver/TE will be left in single coverage. They've got to pick their poison. This points to a Pats blowout of the Jags.

The best the Jags can hope to do is to try to minimize TOP and try to hold onto the ball as long as possible to keep Brady and the Pats potent offense off the field.

 

[wpdougie2180]

I think this game is going to look very similar to the NO/JAX game in that the QB in this case it was Brees had a field day against their defense. There was a couple of plays that looked very familar in that game that the Patriots run, one that really stood out was made by a former patriot #81 from the Saints. I think the Patriots will do the same thing with Stallworth because it looked exactly like Stallworth running that buble screen that he's so good at.

 

[letekro]

This just seems to be the worst possible matchup for the Jax D.

Who are the defenses we have struggled against? In every case, it has been smaller, faster units: Indy, Philly, Baltimore.

As others have mentioned, Welker and Faulk will be matchup nightmares.

On the other side, we have always handled power running teams going back to the Bettis Steelers. Drew is a concern, but you can bet he will be the one thing the Pats try to take away.

 

[theflinger]

Great analysis. I was actually doing the exact same thing with FO's stats for the OL v. DL debate, so I'll switch gears and do a quick RB comparison.

Maroney: Runs: 185 Yards: 835 YPC: 4.51 Success Rating: 58%
Fred Taylor: Runs: 223 Yards: 1225 YPC: 5.49 Success Rating: 45%
MJD: Runs: 167 Yards: 770 YPC: 4.61 Success Rating: 46%
Src: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php


Since the Jags have the 1-2 punch and the higher YPC, I give the edge to JAX.
However, note the substantially lower success rating from Fred and Maurice. This is probably partially due to the lack of legitimate passing threat, but is a valid observation nonetheless. Maroney's 4.5 YPC with a high success rating are exactly what the Patriots need- very few negative yardage plays, chew up clock, get first downs.
On the other hand, although MJD and FT are very talented running backs, they can be stopped to kill a drive.
The high YPC but low success rating of the JAX RB's means that the Patriots have to make sure to tackle properly and not allow the big gainers. If they can keep the big plays contained, the low success rating will kill the drive at some point. Since this is an issue for our defense already, we should focus on this in practice.
The second issue for the Patriots will be containing the dump pass to MJD. I wouldn't be surprised to see Adalius spying MJD on some plays.

 

[duvalbill]

I think this game is going to look very similar to the NO/JAX game in that the QB in this case it was Brees had a field day against their defense. There was a couple of plays that looked very familar in that game that the Patriots run, one that really stood out was made by a former patriot #81 from the Saints. I think the Patriots will do the same thing with Stallworth because it looked exactly like Stallworth running that buble screen that he's so good at.

Unfortunately, I had the same idea when I knew the Jags were playing the Pats. The main area of concern for the Jags is the secondary, but Mathis and B. Williams are both very good corners. If John Henderson is out, it may spell trouble for the secondary, but out DL seems to play better when someone goes down-it truly is an anamoly. Did you watch the final snap for the Steelers? That was one ragtag bunch that brought all that pressure. Other than that, the Jags must control TOP to have a legitimate chance. Thankfully, long, sustained drives is one aspect of the game that the Jags have been particualry adept at, and it must continue. Garrard has one of the better competion %'s on 3rd down in the league which has helped the Jags Offense wear down the opposing defense. Then in comes MJD with rested legs for the homerun (I hope). All in all, I expect a tough game, but I expect the Jags season to end. I just hope the acutal Jags team doesn't feel the same way.

 

[theflinger]

Unfortunately, I had the same idea when I knew the Jags were playing the Pats. The main area of concern for the Jags is the secondary, but Mathis and B. Williams are both very good corners. If John Henderson is out, it may spell trouble for the secondary, but out DL seems to play better when someone goes down-it truly is an anamoly. Did you watch the final snap for the Steelers? That was one ragtag bunch that brought all that pressure. Other than that, the Jags must control TOP to have a legitimate chance. Thankfully, long, sustained drives is one aspect of the game that the Jags have been particualry adept at, and it must continue. Garrard has one of the better competion %'s on 3rd down in the league which has helped the Jags Offense wear down the opposing defense. Then in comes MJD with rested legs for the homerun (I hope). All in all, I expect a tough game, but I expect the Jags season to end. I just hope the acutal Jags team doesn't feel the same way.

Interesting points. Do you think that the rag-tag DL is more effective because it's the end of the game and the subs have fresh legs? In other words, do you think the large size of your DL is a problem? This could prove especially important against our offense.

 

[duvalbill]

Interesting points. Do you think that the rag-tag DL is more because it's the end of the game and the subs have fresh legs? In other words, do you think the large size of your DL is a problem? This could prove especially important against our offense.

Have you seen Grady "gravy" Jackson. If the Pats decide to run a no huddle while he's in the game, I can almost guarantee an injury time out for the Jags. Derek Landri, our rookie DT from ND, has really started to play well in the last couple of games, so we have SOME depth on the line. Losing Henderson would hurt badly, and I doubt the Jags could get much pressure without him, as he is described as a 3 gap (not a typo) type of guy. Also, Hayward has been battling injuries for much of the year, and our DE's haven't been able to get the pressure we need much of the time, thus leaving our safeties and CB's vulnerable-AKA a nightmare when you play the pats.

 

[theflinger]

Have you seen Grady "gravy" Jackson. If the Pats decide to run a no huddle while he's in the game, I can almost guarantee an injury time out for the Jags. Derek Landri, our rookie DT from ND, has really started to play well in the last couple of games, so we have SOME depth on the line. Losing Henderson would hurt badly, and I doubt the Jags could get much pressure without him, as he is described as a 3 gap (not a typo) type of guy. Also, Hayward has been battling injuries for much of the year, and our DE's haven't been able to get the pressure we need much of the time, thus leaving our safeties and CB's vulnerable-AKA a nightmare when you play the pats.

Thanks for the insight, duvalbill! I hope you're right
Our defense starts at the line as well, of course, and I'm sure the FT/MJD/Garrard runs will be extremely effective if the front 3 don't play excellent games.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

If the Pats decide to run a no huddle while he's in the game...

Something for you to look for is that NE will run a no-huddle, but will run the clock down to <5 seconds almost every time. The TV announcers tend to refer to it as a hurry-up, but it isn't. They typically do it to prevent defensive substitutions.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Patriots Passing O v. Jacksonville Passing D

The two statistics I will shamelessly borrow from CHFF are Defensive Passer Rating and Passing Yards per Attempt

The Patriots finished #1 in the League in YPA with 7.79 (CHFF's numbers differ from the NFL's number because CHFF includes sack yardage and the NFL does not. Read the note on the top of the YPA page to see CHFF's explanation). Dallas, Green Bay, and Indy were #2-4 and finished with 7.38, 7.26 and 7.03 YPA respectively.

Jacksonville finished 7th in the League in Defensive Passer Rating with 76.1 (Sidenote: NE finished 11th with 78.1). The top 11 teams in terms of Defensive Passer Rating all qualified for the playoffs this year. The Giants, at #17 were the only playoff team without a top-rated Defensive Passer Rating.

Anyways, on to the meat and potatoes.

The Patriots

The New England Patriots played 5 teams rated in the top-10 in Defensive Passer Rating. In those 5 games, the Patriots fared as such:
San Deigo (#1, 70.0) - 8.5YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, 123.0 Passer Rating
Dallas (#5, 75.1) - 8.1 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT, 129.6 Passer Rating
Washington (#10, 77.1) - 8.1 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT, 125.6 Passer Rating
Indianapolis (#3, 73.3) - 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 2 INT, 95.2 Passer Rating
Pittsburgh (#9, 76.5) - 8.7 YPA, 4TD, 0 INT, 125.2 Passer Rating

In these 5 games Brady threw 18 TDs and 3 INTs (Are you kidding me?). Against defenses not rated in the top 10, Brady threw 32 TDs and 5 INTs . That is almost the same ratio (6:1). It appears that no matter the defense, Brady has performed equally well.

The Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars played against 5 teams in the top ten of YPA (Indy and Houston are both division rivals).

Denver (#10, 6.59 YPA) - 9.5 YPA, 1TD, 1 INT, 96.6 Rating (by Jay Cutler)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 7.7 YPA 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.5 (Schuab) & 122.9 (Rosenfels) Note: Schuab & Rosenfels split this game
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 6.6 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 80.8 Rating (P. Manning)
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 9.6 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT, 126.2 Rating (P. Manning)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 6.7 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 78.0 Rating

As you can see, Jacksonville was up and down in terms of YPA. Indy and Denver both posted games above their season YPA while Indy, Denver and Houston posted games below their season YPA. Five out of Six QBs who were on top-10 passing teams did better than Jacksonville's season average for Defensive Passer Rating.

The Conclusion
Well, what did we learn? NE's passing offense fared less well (sorry, I can't bring myself to call 18TD and 3 INT "poorly") against good defenses. Jacksonville's passing defense fared less well (Again, I wouldn't say poorly here) against better passing offenses. In my opinion, Jacksonville will not win if they "hold" the Patriots to 3-4 TD and 0-1 INT, a "normal" day against good defenses for the Patriots this year.

 

[wpdougie2180]

Patriots Passing O v. Jacksonville Passing D

The two statistics I will shamelessly borrow from CHFF are Defensive Passer Rating and Passing Yards per Attempt

The Patriots finished #1 in the League in YPA with 7.79 (CHFF's numbers differ from the NFL's number because CHFF includes sack yardage and the NFL does not. Read the note on the top of the YPA page to see CHFF's explanation). Dallas, Green Bay, and Indy were #2-4 and finished with 7.38, 7.26 and 7.03 YPA respectively.

Jacksonville finished 7th in the League in Defensive Passer Rating with 76.1 (Sidenote: NE finished 11th with 78.1). The top 11 teams in terms of Defensive Passer Rating all qualified for the playoffs this year. The Giants, at #17 were the only playoff team without a top-rated Defensive Passer Rating.

Anyways, on to the meat and potatoes.

The Patriots

The New England Patriots played 5 teams rated in the top-10 in Defensive Passer Rating. In those 5 games, the Patriots fared as such:
San Deigo (#1, 70.0) - 8.5YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, 123.0 Passer Rating
Dallas (#5, 75.1) - 8.1 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT, 129.6 Passer Rating
Washington (#10, 77.1) - 8.1 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT, 125.6 Passer Rating
Indianapolis (#3, 73.3) - 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 2 INT, 95.2 Passer Rating
Pittsburgh (#9, 76.5) - 8.7 YPA, 4TD, 0 INT, 125.2 Passer Rating

In these 5 games Brady threw 18 TDs and 6 INTs (Are you kidding me?). Against defenses not rated in the top 10, Brady threw 32 TDs and 2 INTs . So I suppose you could say that against good defenses the Patriots had a relative famine.

The Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars played against 5 teams in the top ten of YPA (Indy and Houston are both division rivals).

Denver (#10, 6.59 YPA) - 9.5 YPA, 1TD, 1 INT, 96.6 Rating (by Jay Cutler)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 7.7 YPA 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.5 (Schuab) & 122.9 (Rosenfels) Note: Schuab & Rosenfels split this game
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 6.6 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 80.8 Rating (P. Manning)
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 9.6 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT, 126.2 Rating (P. Manning)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 6.7 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 78.0 Rating

As you can see, Jacksonville was up and down in terms of YPA. Indy and Denver both posted games above their season YPA while Indy, Denver and Houston posted games below their season YPA. Five out of Six QBs who were on top-10 passing teams did better than Jacksonville's season average for Defensive Passer Rating.

The Conclusion
Well, what did we learn? NE's passing offense fared less well (sorry, I can't bring myself to call 18TD and 8 INT "poorly") against good defenses. Jacksonville's passing defense fared less well (Again, I wouldn't say poorly here) against better passing offenses. In my opinion, Jacksonville will not win if they "hold" the Patriots to 3-4 TD and 0-1 INT, a "normal" day against good defenses for the Patriots this year.

Brady only threw 3 ints in those 5 game. he threw 1 vs SD, 2 vs INDY, 1 vs Balt., 1 vs NYJ, 2 vs Mia, and 1 vs Cincy. One thing that people seem to forget in the Baltimore and Philly games is that they both had a set of Pro Bowl caliber CBs in Brown/Sheppard & Rolle/McAllister. Neither set played much together because of injuries and other circumstances but thay played the NE game. Rolle/McAllister played maybe 5 games total together this year and neither played after the NE game and Brown/Sheppard didn't play alot together no one metiones this as a reason why their teams didn't do to good this year but did well against the Patriots kinda like the Bears versus GB with Tillman/Vasher with one or both injured most of the season but both played the GB games and they won.

 

[xmarkd400x]

Brady only threw 3 ints in those 5 game. he threw 1 vs SD, 2 vs INDY, 1 vs Balt., 1 vs NYJ, 2 vs Mia, and 1 vs Cincy.

Will be fixing that. My poor columning led to poor addition :bricks:

 

[Satchboogie3]

Patriots Passing O v. Jacksonville Passing D

The two statistics I will shamelessly borrow from CHFF are Defensive Passer Rating and Passing Yards per Attempt

The Patriots finished #1 in the League in YPA with 7.79 (CHFF's numbers differ from the NFL's number because CHFF includes sack yardage and the NFL does not. Read the note on the top of the YPA page to see CHFF's explanation). Dallas, Green Bay, and Indy were #2-4 and finished with 7.38, 7.26 and 7.03 YPA respectively.

Jacksonville finished 7th in the League in Defensive Passer Rating with 76.1 (Sidenote: NE finished 11th with 78.1). The top 11 teams in terms of Defensive Passer Rating all qualified for the playoffs this year. The Giants, at #17 were the only playoff team without a top-rated Defensive Passer Rating.

Anyways, on to the meat and potatoes.

The Patriots

The New England Patriots played 5 teams rated in the top-10 in Defensive Passer Rating. In those 5 games, the Patriots fared as such:
San Deigo (#1, 70.0) - 8.5YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, 123.0 Passer Rating
Dallas (#5, 75.1) - 8.1 YPA, 5 TD, 0 INT, 129.6 Passer Rating
Washington (#10, 77.1) - 8.1 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT, 125.6 Passer Rating
Indianapolis (#3, 73.3) - 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 2 INT, 95.2 Passer Rating
Pittsburgh (#9, 76.5) - 8.7 YPA, 4TD, 0 INT, 125.2 Passer Rating

In these 5 games Brady threw 18 TDs and 3 INTs (Are you kidding me?). Against defenses not rated in the top 10, Brady threw 32 TDs and 5 INTs . That is almost the same ratio (6:1). It appears that no matter the defense, Brady has performed equally well.

The Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars played against 5 teams in the top ten of YPA (Indy and Houston are both division rivals).

Denver (#10, 6.59 YPA) - 9.5 YPA, 1TD, 1 INT, 96.6 Rating (by Jay Cutler)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 7.7 YPA 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.5 (Schuab) & 122.9 (Rosenfels) Note: Schuab & Rosenfels split this game
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 6.6 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 80.8 Rating (P. Manning)
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 9.6 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT, 126.2 Rating (P. Manning)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 6.7 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 78.0 Rating

As you can see, Jacksonville was up and down in terms of YPA. Indy and Denver both posted games above their season YPA while Indy, Denver and Houston posted games below their season YPA. Five out of Six QBs who were on top-10 passing teams did better than Jacksonville's season average for Defensive Passer Rating.

The Conclusion
Well, what did we learn? NE's passing offense fared less well (sorry, I can't bring myself to call 18TD and 3 INT "poorly") against good defenses. Jacksonville's passing defense fared less well (Again, I wouldn't say poorly here) against better passing offenses. In my opinion, Jacksonville will not win if they "hold" the Patriots to 3-4 TD and 0-1 INT, a "normal" day against good defenses for the Patriots this year.

You are stating the obvious. The Pats offense is much better than Jax, so it obviously will perform much better against a tough defense than will Jax.

 

[theflinger]

Although the general point is obvious, that breakdown was useful to see, especially with these last few games where Brady has looked more human. Good work, x.

 

[karran_s]

Well to boil it down, Jacksonville won't be able to bring pressure with just their front 4. If they drop back defenders to stop the pass, that gives Brady all day to pick em apart. If they put extra rushers in the box, that means Moss or Welker, or another Pat receiver/TE will be left in single coverage. They've got to pick their poison. This points to a Pats blowout of the Jags.

The best the Jags can hope to do is to try to minimize TOP and try to hold onto the ball as long as possible to keep Brady and the Pats potent offense off the field.

Hey... great analysis ! Just my thoughts on what they could possibly do..

They must be huddled somewhere right now, figuring out how to stop Tom Brady... They know they must bring pressure but the question is how ???

I think the Jags must already be sweating now...... Also, when they get on the field, I think BB is going to have more than one surprise for them...

 

[Metaphors]

The Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars played against 5 teams in the top ten of YPA (Indy and Houston are both division rivals).

Denver (#10, 6.59 YPA) - 9.5 YPA, 1TD, 1 INT, 96.6 Rating (by Jay Cutler)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 7.7 YPA 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.5 (Schuab) & 122.9 (Rosenfels) Note: Schuab & Rosenfels split this game
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 6.6 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 80.8 Rating (P. Manning)
Indianapolis (#4, 7.03) - 9.6 YPA, 4 TD, 1 INT, 126.2 Rating (P. Manning)
Houston (#5, 6.81 YPA) - 6.7 YPA, 1 TD, 1 INT, 78.0 Rating

Throw out the last HOU game since they weren't trying. The DEN and IND games bolded above were on the road. In addition, they played 2 games on turf this year...the 2nd IND game above and at the Saints (Brees with 119.9 rating). Obviously lost them both.

The signs are not good for the Jags...