Maybe A Hint Of How The Pats Will Do In Playoffs

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Against the six playoff teams + Cleveland (included them because they were so close to making it):

Pats scored an average of 38pts/game - a little above season average of 36.8

Pats allowed an average of 19pts/game - a little worse than season average of 17.1pts

Still they totaled a whopping differential of +19pts/game, quite a margin for another team to overcome, no matter how good they are.

Even if we make the traditional assumption that everything is tighter in the playoffs, no one other team pops out as obviously having the goods to overcome a team capable of outscoring their quality opponents by so much. Let alone that same team playing at home where it's 6-0 in the Brady era in the playoffs.

BTW - long term forecast is for a snowstorm starting some time Saturday or Saturday night. My very amateurish reading of the weather tea leaves says the storm will come a bit later, and/or just be rain.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

The Eagles/Ravens/Steelers sequence was telling, IMO. The Pats didn't get up for those Eagles & Ravens games and they ended up close. The Pats were fired up to play Pittsburgh (who at the time had an outside chance at stealing their seeding) and thumped them. I think the Pats play the rest of their games like Pittsburgh rather than like Philly and Baltimore.

Regards,
Chris

 

[BradyManny]

Co-sign both the above posts. You could see it in the play-calling and game-planning, too. I think to some extent - the intent in the games against teams we knew we could beat (Philly, NYJ, Mia, Balt) was to just win, the intent in games against teams we could face in the postseason (Pittsburgh, Dallas, Washington, SD, etc.) was to destroy, intimidate, dismantle, annihilate, etc.

 

[sieglo]

The last big hurdle from a GOAT perspective is for the Pats to beat the '85 Bears' playoff margin of victory. That means total domination. I hope they do it!

 

[BradyManny]

The last big hurdle from a GOAT perspective is for the Pats to beat the '85 Bears' playoff margin of victory. That means total domination. I hope they do it!

I hope they do it for the sake of my health while watching the games - but if Indy comes through, I'd say it's a safe bet we don't beat the record. We'll have at least 1 nail-biter.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

The last big hurdle from a GOAT perspective is for the Pats to beat the '85 Bears' playoff margin of victory. That means total domination. I hope they do it!

The '85 Bears faced a decent QB in Phil Simms in round 1, but those Giants WRs were nothing to fear that would force the Bears out of their 46 defense. Simms didn't have a chance. In round 2, the Bears had to concentrate on Eric ****erson because they knew Dieter Brock wasn't going to beat them. In round 3, the Bears were licking their chops at going after Tony Eason, who they faced earlier in the year and knew was a pansy under an intense rush.

The Bears owe a lot of their playoff margin not only to their own dominance, but also to the substandard offenses, especially QBs, they had to face. If the Pats end up facing the Colts and Cowboys, they'll have a hard time dominating those far superior offenses than what those Bears faced.

Regards,
Chris

 

[godef]

Against the six playoff teams + Cleveland (included them because they were so close to making it):

Pats scored an average of 38pts/game - a little above season average of 36.8

Pats allowed an average of 19pts/game - a little worse than season average of 17.1pts

Still they totaled a whopping differential of +19pts/game, quite a margin for another team to overcome, no matter how good they are.

Even if we make the traditional assumption that everything is tighter in the playoffs, no one other team pops out as obviously having the goods to overcome a team capable of outscoring their quality opponents by so much. Let alone that same team playing at home where it's 6-0 in the Brady era in the playoffs.

BTW - long term forecast is for a snowstorm starting some time Saturday or Saturday night. My very amateurish reading of the weather tea leaves says the storm will come a bit later, and/or just be rain.

The problem is that you cite scores from the entire year, whereas in reality, the recent trend for the Pats has been tighter games.

Yes, we won at Dallas and at Indy, but that all occurred before mid-season. Seems to me that at least the Colts are playing better than at the time we faced them mid-season.

I'm still confident the Pats will prevail, but all I'm saying is, throw out those numbers, they don't have much meaning beyond the generalization that we are sometimes/often capable of blowing out many teams. But no team ever beat another team by 17.1 points.

 

[GaryfromTO]

it's the playoffs. throw the regular season out the window.

That said. I am confident we have the team to go all the way

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

The problem is that you cite scores from the entire year, whereas in reality, the recent trend for the Pats has been tighter games.

Yes, we won at Dallas and at Indy, but that all occurred before mid-season. Seems to me that at least the Colts are playing better than at the time we faced them mid-season.

I'm still confident the Pats will prevail, but all I'm saying is, throw out those numbers, they don't have much meaning beyond the generalization that we are sometimes/often capable of blowing out many teams. But no team ever beat another team by 17.1 points.

I disagree on several points-

I used these numbers to show how the Pat's O actually was often even better than their average game when they played against the cream of the crop. Late, early, middle, made little difference - when they played a playoff team the offense showed it's teeth.

Tighter late season games could be attributed to general fatigue - that's one big reason no one has gone without a loss in the regular since '72. And I bet that the crown of winning every regular season game started to weigh heavy on the Pats and both motivated them to get the wins while grinding them down emotionally. Good, even great, teams have lost games during the regular season to teams they could/should have beaten for 35 years, it's not easy to avoid, so 'in reality' the remarkable fact is the Pats found the drive and skill to win any which way - tight, blowouts, come from behind, etc. This conclusion speaks of a rare, spectacular strength, not eventual weakness.

Our home town team has long been prone to playing up to, or down to, the level of competition - go check some of the SB seasons. Instead, this year's version smoked everyone they could and gut checked the other very few.

The major road wins at Indy and Dallas should not be lightly dismissed. The Cowboys were blown away when the game got 'tight' and the Colts now have it in the back of their minds they might not have the tools to beat the Pats since they couldn't even hold them off in a game the Colts probably once thought they were going win.