Maroney/Addai Comparison Since Matchup

[Oswlek]

I posted this as a reply in the disappointment thread but I thought it was interesting enough to be its own thread

Here are some interesting numbers since the Indy/NE game:

Carries

Addai - 108
Maroney - 96

since they played the same number of games (NE had a bye and Indy just took one themselves) that amounts to.....

Carries per game

Addai - 15.4
Maroney - 13.7

Is that really that much of a difference? And if you say something like, "Well, Indy has been resting him for the playoffs" why is that any more reasonable than the earlier talk of NE resting Maroney for the final stretch? Besides, let's take a look at how effective those carries were.

Total rushing yards

Addai - 341
Maroney - 430

Rushing yards per game

Addai - 48
Maroney - 61

Less carries and more yards. Isn't that doing better? What is interesting is that NE actually faced the more difficult run defenses over that time as well. Indy faced teams allowing an average ypc of 4.1 why NE's opponents averaged 3.9.

Now, just to be fair, NE didn't run Maroney that much against the better run stopping teams (although both him and Addai ran 13 times against Baltimore) so I went through and calculated how many yards each would have gotten if they just ran for the defense's average for each rush. (for example, both guys would be expected to have run for 36.4 yards against Baltimore since 13 x 2.8 = 36.4) That way, Maroney would lose some credit because his largest attempt total was against one of the worst rush D's. Here are those numbers along with what they actually ran (from above)

Addai - 443.4 (341)
Maroney - 377.2 (430)

So Addai ran for over 100 yards less than the average while Maroney was about 50 over. On a ypc rate that looks like

Addai - 4.1 (3.2 actual)
Maroney - 3.9 (4.5 actual)

Again, Addai averaged nearly a full yard per rush less than the mean while Maroney was half a yard over. This isn't just because of the Miami game either, in those seven games Addai has only run for more ypc than the opponent typically allowed one time - and that was only by 0.2 ypc! 4 other times he was under with two essential draws. Maroney split it right down the middle with three over, three under and one draw.

Addai does have Maroney beaten hands down as a receiver and that is irrefutible, but it is my contention that Faulk's excellence on that role steals many of Maroney's opportunities. I would bet a large sum of money that Laurence would have comparable numbers to Addai if Faulk were not on the team.

As much as Addai clearly outperformed Maroney in the first half, Maroney has done nearly the same thing since then to significantly less fanfare.

 

[Oswlek]

Anyone?

Bueller?

 

[tombonneau]

I agree, Addai has slowed down during the stretch. If only they hadn't used him so much the first half of the season as was done with another second year running back who seems to be peaking as the playoffs approach ...

 

[chrisfx811]

Nice research.
Hasn't Addai had nagging injuries for the 2nd half of the season? I had seen a couple of Colt's games where Addai didn't look good, and was getting punished in games.
Like the Pats, it seems with only 1 back-up rb behind Addai, I would understand the need to protect Addai for the stretch run.
I know, for me, I'd fear for every team the Pats faced, if they had the luxury of a 2 headed rushing attack with Morris & Maroney to balance Brady & co on offense.

 

[FibSeq13478]

I would bet a large sum of money that Laurence would have comparable numbers to Addai if Faulk were not on the team.

As much as Addai clearly outperformed Maroney in the first half, Maroney has done nearly the same thing since then to significantly less fanfare.

Addai's value to Colts offense stems from the fact that they run and pass from the same formation and personnel set. I can imagine Pats being able to do the same with Maroney next year when he can be a more effective in passing downs.

It has been mentioned here on this board as well as in other articles that Faulk stays as the preferred back in passing formations because of his pass protection skills. In this regard, I thought Terrell Davis made an observation the other day on NFLN that I thought was very interesting. He said Maroney was BETTER than Faulk in executing blitz blocking but he wasn't as good as Faulk yet at reading where the blitz is going to come from. That is why I think it will take till next year for Maroney to grow in that area- once he does that look out- his running and pass catching numbers will improve substantially.

 

[BradyisGod]

I checked his receiving out of the backfield and he didn't have much to add there either (Addai).

 

[xmarkd400x]

In this regard, I thought Terrell Davis made an observation the other day on NFLN that I thought was very interesting. He said Maroney was BETTER than Faulk in executing blitz blocking but he wasn't as good as Faulk yet at reading where the blitz is going to come from. That is why I think it will take till next year for Maroney to grow in that area- once he does that look out- his running and pass catching numbers will improve substantially.

Interesting. In what context did he say this?

 

[Ring 6]

This is a perfect example of what happens when people are so quick to make conclusions too early.
I mean, half way through each players SECOND NFL SEASON there were numerous posters on this board who had DECIDED the relative careers of Maroney and Addai.
All of a sudden, those conclusions look very murky.

There are sooo many factors with any young player. And, as we have seen, how they perform changes even within a season. This isn't baseball where every hitter comes up 4 times each game, and they all roughly face the same pitchers with exactly the same job to do. There is so much of the development of a player that revolves around learning, that I do not understand how everyone can ignore that learning faster does not equal learning better. Playing with injuries affect all players, but it is both IF they have had to play through more or less injuries AND how they play when they are playing through injuries. What a player is asked to do at any postion is different on different teams, in gameplan, in usage, and in the philosophy of different teams on very similar plays.

I can not fathom how someone can be 'disappointed' in what Laurence Maroney did this year, unless they start from wanting to be disappointed then build a story to support it. It is OBVIOUS to anyone who is paying attention that Maroney has done with his opportunities at least as much as you could expect from a second year player. It is equally obvious that the way the Patriots have chosen to play this year has limited his opportunities. That is not a slight of him. It can't be, because the result was the best offense ever. If Maroney had carried 350 times and averaged 4.5 a carry, gaining 1575 yards, and our offense was mediocre, I somehow think there are fans out there that would think Maroney was better. I do not know why.

I guess some people want the team to have the success it has had, but at the same time want it done on terms they like better. I do not know how anyone can criticize the RB on the best offense ever because the best offense ever was so good at throwing the ball it didn't hand off to him a lot.

The decisions of how much we ran and how much we threw were GENIUS. The best ever, because the result was the best ever. Somehow, we expect that our running back has to be so good that he changes the gameplan of the best offense ever?

By the way, I thought Maroney played a tremendous game against the Giants. The stats do not illustrate that, but if you watched that game, you could not come away without thinking he played very, very well. There are stats for you.

 

[Ring 6]

Interesting. In what context did he say this?

I dont disagree with that. From what Ive seen Maroney is excellent at execute the pass block. I wouldn't be surprised to review film and see that Faulk gets to the blitzer better, but Maroney blocks him better when he gets there.
I also think Maroney is improving there too, because he is in on passing plays more and more frequently.

 

[FibSeq13478]

Interesting. In what context did he say this?

Sorry, I don't remember the context. It was of course part of the Patsathon last week so they likely asked TD a question about "lack" of running game by Patriots.

 

[MetalBleachers]

I think we should all get on the same page in one regard: like him or not, disappointed or not, Maroney is the man for the foreseeable future. No McFadden nor free agent RBs in 2008. It's just not going to happen. It's Maroney, Morris and Faulk for as long as each can do his job.

I think that Maroney had a solid if unspectacular game vs. the Giants that will help him in the playoffs and maybe into the future.

I don't think the comparable stats prove that Maroney and Addai are comparable at this point. Take away the Miami game and we're looking at a very different story.

Anything anyone agrees on? Or am I just :blahblah: ?

 

[onegameatatime]

If Maroney and the Pats were on the 10 yard line, and Jets(as in Lawrence "Jets" Maroney) broke through the line and there were NO ONE IN THE SECONDARY, that would be a 90 yard run, correct? And if the field were 200 yards long, it's be a 190 yard run. What was the length of that other long run? That was a little more impressive, as RM was out front with a block. Point is, as we were reminded of when Addai caught a 73 yard screen pass, you can't always count on plays like that. Take the top two runs out for both players, and see what you get.

If you go down that hole. you have to consider how often they were asked to get short yardage -- e.g., got 2 yards on 3rd and 1. Or how Maroney had several shorter TD runs when maybe he could have gotten more otherwise.

Actually, FootballOutsider does something like this and I believe they rank Maroney as #1 in effectiveness.

 

[onegameatatime]

Why can't we just agree that these are two very good backs on two very good teams?

And that because they are on great passing teams, but teams that use personnel differently, they are asked to do different things from each other and from some other backs in the NFL?

 

[theflinger]

Excellent work. That took quite a bit of effort, and you should be commended.

For what it's worth, although I haven't had time to do a lot of film lately, Maroney does seem to be improving a lot in pass protection.


This post, combined with FO's stats, will surely convince my friends who have already decided that Maroney is terrible.
Also note, Maroney hasn't fumbled the ball once. In this offense, that is HUGE, since the role of our running game is basically "keep 'em honest and don't screw up".

As for the Giants game- Maroney did well. He got stuffed a few times, but every time that I saw, there were multiple guys in the backfield. And if the Maroney haters watched- the same thing happened to faulk.

(Impressions are so easy to make- baseball taught me that first. I trust the stats).

 

[theflinger]

One more thing:
If any of you actually remember when Faulk was new to this team, you'll remember he was not good as pass protection. He made himself good. In fact, at this point, I'd say Maroney is already better than he was, which bodes well if Maroney is a hard worker.

And all of this after major shoulder surgery.

 

[patsox23]

If Maroney had carried 350 times and averaged 4.5 a carry, gaining 1575 yards, and our offense was mediocre, I somehow think there are fans out there that would think Maroney was better. I do not know why.

I guess some people want the team to have the success it has had, but at the same time want it done on terms they like better. I do not know how anyone can criticize the RB on the best offense ever because the best offense ever was so good at throwing the ball it didn't hand off to him a lot.

By the way, I thought Maroney played a tremendous game against the Giants. The stats do not illustrate that, but if you watched that game, you could not come away without thinking he played very, very well. There are stats for you.

COULDN'T AGREE MORE. Thanks for articulating it so well.

 

[bradmahn]

True, and fine. All 12 of his rushing TD's came from inside the 19. I can attest that most of those were insdie the ten, and probably inside the 5.

5 of Maroney's 6 TD's came inside the 19 yard line. Confused, didn't he score on 2 long runs a few weeks ago??

Anyway, you can look up situational stats if you want, sure the goal line stops progress, but with a 12-5 edge in TD's inside the 19, I'd say Addai is affected more adversely by this than Maroney.


EDIT:
It would be interesting to see how often NE RAN on 3rd and short, and how often the RAN Maroney, versus say, Faulk. I doubt (but I do not know) that Maroney has picked up more 3rd and shorts than Addai.

Maroney ran the ball 11 times on 3rd down, gaining 80 yards and FIVE first downs. ONE of those runs was a 59 yarder. So, 10 runs gained 21 yards, and I assume 5 first downs(since I don't think they would count the TD as a TD AND a first down).

Addai ran the ball 27 times on third down, for 108 yards. Gained 16 first downs. Longest run of the bunch was 12 yards.

And second and short? Fourth and inches? Not all "goal line carries" come on third down.

As has been said, Maroney had the second best success rate out of all backs this season while Addai was sixth. Maroney had a DVOA that was higher than Addai's as well (9th and 16th respectively). Addai had a higher DPAR (more total value) and I would imagine that would come as a result of more carries and such.

I don't believe this thread was to knock Addai, who is a good back, it was more intended to end all this "Maroney is made of glass; he's a bust" garbage.

 

[patsox23]

I think that Maroney had a solid if unspectacular game vs. the Giants that will help him in the playoffs and maybe into the future.

I think that undersells his performance. I think it was far more than solid.

 

[theflinger]

And second and short? Fourth and inches? Not all "goal line carries" come on third down.

As has been said, Maroney had the second best success rate out of all backs this season while Addai was sixth. Maroney had a DVOA that was higher than Addai's as well (9th and 16th respectively). Addai had a higher DPAR (more total value) and I would imagine that would come as a result of more carries and such.

I don't believe this thread was to knock Addai, who is a good back, it was more intended to end all this "Maroney is made of glass; he's a bust" garbage.

Precisely.
Note (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb.php) that Maroney actually has a higher DVOA than Adrian Peterson. Ruh roe.

 

[theflinger]

Here's an interesting comparison.

In attempting to correct for the "historic passing offense" factor into the running game, check out Marshall Faulk in 2001, as part of the greatest show on turf:

r = previous stat rank.

Player Team DPAR r PAR r DVOA r voa runs yards td fum s.r. r
M.Faulk STL 43.1 2 45.7 1 25.0% 1 27.3% 260 1382 12 2 56% 1

39-L.Maroney NE 26.4 6 29.8 6 18.6% 9 22.8% 185 835 6 0 58% 2



If you're in the ballpark with a HOF RB, not to mention very comparable to, you simply CANNOT be considered a bust.