Odds of each AFC playoff team upsetting the Pats

[sanvara]

Full article here: Link

Colts 2-1
Chargers 10-1
Jaguars 20-1
Steelers 25-1
Titans 70-1

 

[MRBLAZE]

Chargers are 10-1, while Jacksonville is 20-1?

Jacksonville is more dangerous than San Diego is. Think that's overvaluing SD and undervaluing Jacksonville.

 

[Lansdowne]

Odds of Pats not getting upset by any of them should be much better.

 

[ALP]

well, i guess LT had it wrong then....he should have said

"we play them 10 times, we win 1"

 

[sanvara]

well, i guess LT had it wrong then....he should have said

"we play them 10 times, we win 1"

This is a different Patriot's team. This year's team would kill last year's team.

 

[sanvara]

Fox Sports have posted their odds of an upset of the Pats with an article:


Colts, Chargers are best bets vs. Patriots

Colts 4-1
Chargers 8-1
Cowboys 10-1
Jaguars 12-1
Packers 20-1
Bucs 30-1
Giants 30-1
Seahawks 75-1
Redskins 75-1
Steelers 100-1
Titans 150-1

 

[FirstAndGoal]

This is a different Patriot's team. This year's team would kill last year's team.

and last year's Chargers team would kill this years Charger team.

Actually, LdT said it about this year's team.

 

[sanvara]

and last year's Chargers team would kill this years Charger team.

At the start of the season sure, but this Chargers team is completely different than the one that started the season. They are playing playoff caliber football right now.

Last five games:

5-0
Points scored per game: 30
Points allowed per game: 12
Defensive turnovers: 18 (Chargers defense leads the league in turnovers created)

They won't be an easy out.

 

[tombonneau]

I'm assuming those odds are in a vacuum and constitute the odds SD could beat us, not beat us in the 2007 playoffs.

IMO, SD's odds would be *much* higher bc they would have to win the wild card round, *then* travel to Indy and win and *then* win in Foxboro.

In fact for that reason, I would give the 4, 5 & 6 seeds in the AFC higher odds of beating NE than SD.

 

[tombonneau]

At the start of the season sure, but this Chargers team is completely different than the one that started the season. They are playing playoff caliber football right now.

Last five games:

5-0
Points scored per game: 30
Points allowed per game: 12
Defensive turnovers: 18 (Chargers defense leads the league in turnovers created)

They won't be an easy out.

Paper tigers. Who did they play in that stretch? No one.

The one playoff team they faced -- Titans -- they barely managed to get to OT to win the game, and that's only bc Tennessee gave it away. (And I don't believe Haynesworth was playing either, could be wrong though.)

As a Pats fan I'm really bummed they got the 3 seed, was hoping they'd be 4 so NE could wax them in round 2.

 

[eom]

At the start of the season sure, but this Chargers team is completely different than the one that started the season. They are playing playoff caliber football right now.

Last five games:

5-0
Points scored per game: 30
Points allowed per game: 12
Defensive turnovers: 18 (Chargers defense leads the league in turnovers created)

They won't be an easy out.

yeah, they'd be a lot to handle if their road to the superbowl was denver, kc, and oakland, or whoever the hell they probably beat.

I hope you start a thread here when they predictably get their asses beat.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Paper tigers. Who did they play in that stretch? No one.
.

Oak, Den, Det, Tenn, KC......one +.500 team
combined record 32-48......

 

[Fencer]

ESPN's figures seem meant to be odds "Conditional on there being a game" E.g., there's no discussion of whether the game will happen.

Fox DOES have verbiage as to whether the game will happen in the first place, so that's evidently meant to be total odds.

As for my opinion:

I think Mike Reiss's 50% chance for Indy is way too high. But 70-30, which is close to ESPN'S 2-1? Not unreasonable.

Everybody else in the AFC has a pretty small chance.

 

[makewayhomer]

Colts 40% chance
Jaguars and Chargers 30%

down the stretch, the Jags have been the best team in the AFC

losing to the colts @ Indy by 3 means they played them pretty even. they beat SD & Pitt as well

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

At the start of the season sure, but this Chargers team is completely different than the one that started the season. They are playing playoff caliber football right now.

Last five games:

5-0
Points scored per game: 30
Points allowed per game: 12
Defensive turnovers: 18 (Chargers defense leads the league in turnovers created)

They won't be an easy out.

Exactly. They have so much talent on that team that they could easily make a run. Plus in 2004 the Steelers(15-1) got knocked off in the playoffs but in 2005 came back (11-5) as the 6th seed and won the playoffs. The Colts in 2005(14-2) got knocked off in the playoffs then in 2006 (12-4 with a terrible run defense) as the 3rd seed and won the playoffs. Chargers in 2006 were (14-2) the 1st seed and got knocked out. Teams seem to refocus after thinking they should of won and being knocked off.


Hopefully that trend changes and the Pats go all the way!:rocker:

 

[Patjew]

Let's face it. I think this team played it's best football in October. I think San Diego's playing its best football right now.

But even if that's true, it's a relative measure. Who is to say that the Pats' ALMOST-BEST isn't better than SD's BEST.

 

[Bostonian1962]

At the start of the season sure, but this Chargers team is completely different than the one that started the season. They are playing playoff caliber football right now.

Last five games:

5-0
Points scored per game: 30
Points allowed per game: 12
Defensive turnovers: 18 (Chargers defense leads the league in turnovers created)

They won't be an easy out.

Appreciate that, but I gotta figure the fact that those 5 games included games against KC, Det, Den, and Oak makes that far less impressive.