Good points all.
I agree that in the playoffs we're likely to see a higher fraction of passes going to guys who're REALLY open, although some will still be thrown on the theory that Moss and even Gaffney can outjump most defenders.
On defenses, I think if we do face JAX, we'll scheme to stop certain specific kinds of running plays. Ditto SD, plus a focus on Gates.
Pitt and Indy we've played so many times that I'm not sure how much scheme innovation there will be. But if Harrison is still out a focus on Reggie Wayne is an obvious try on defense, along with the previously effective spying on Dallas Clark.
The real key to beating Indy is to slice up their very fast and effective defense for a whole game, rather than just a quarter or half. I suspect that will involve a lot of scheme variation.
I personally think the key against the Colt D is staying away from negative plays. They create a lot of negative plays in the running game, because when they are focussed on stopping the run, they stunt and blitz, trying to make a tackle for a loss. Without those plays, they have a very hard time stopping a drive.
I think the WORST strategy you can have against the Colt D is to come out and pound the run. You will have many very nice runs, but your drives are short-circuited by not picking up the stunt, losing 4, and then having to throw.
Our balance is perfect to attack that D. We can pretty much come out and throw every play until they cannot commit enough people to the run to beat blocking with scheme. We are more capable than any team in the NFL of running on passing downs, and passing on running downs.
The best blanket statement I could make about the Colts D is that they are very good if they know what you are going to do, and very bad if they do not. Common perception is that you attack them by overpowering their small front 7. The problem with that is you have small guys trying to avoid blocks, and if one cracks through, the play is blown up. The common perception is also that their cover2 is susceptible to certain patterns, but if you are in certain passing situations, they know that is what you will do and can compensate for it.
I expect that we will have one of our best offensive days against them if they progress to the AFCC. My reasoning for this is that they have improved over the last 13 months, not with better play from the players per se, but by adjusting their schemes to take away how teams intended to attack them, which had become somewhat obvious. IMO, offenses are looking at the current Colt D and still trying to attack them they way you would have in Nov of 2006. They have made SCHEMATIC CHANGES to not be beaten that way, and I think most teams are still looking at how small the front 7 is and how pedestrian the seconday is in coverage and ignoring what has IMO been a fantastic coaching job of scheming to take away what everyone sees as their weaknesses.
I have always said the worst thing you can do offensively is find a weakness and attack it so often that the defense has no choice but to overcomepnsate for that weakness. (i.e. if a team has a terrible corner and you throw at him 20 times in a game, you will be throwing at him AND A SAFETY, negating the mismatch).
I think that the Patriot coaching staff has plenty of film from the last 13 months to get inside the heads of the Indy D schemes and create a gameplan that will tear it to shreds.
