Stat heads explain why Brady's rating isn't tops all time

[RayClay]

From Reiss's mailbag

I saw Tom Brady finished the season with a 117.2 passer rating. Where does this rank all time? I know he didn't break the completion percentage record, but did he take the passer rating record?
Edvin Jenssen, Trondheim, Norway

A: This ranks second all-time, behind Peyton Manning, who had a 121.1 rating in the 2004 season. Yet the interesting part of this is that when comparing Brady's 2007 stats to Manning's 2004 stats, Brady had more completions, a higher completion percentage, more yards, more touchdowns and fewer interceptions. :wha:



http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/01/01/perfect_questions/?page=4

 

[DaedalusX]

Sounds to me more like a failing in the passer rating formula than a legitimate justification for Brady hitting second on the all-time list. Given the categories he beat Peyton out in between those two years, I don't think that conclusion just comes from being a homer, either.

 

[Lansdowne]

Brady had 81 more pass attempts, so that may have factored in to it somewhere. Though it still doesn't make sense given that Brady's completion % was still better.

 

[MRBLAZE]

I noticed this too, it's lame. What are ya gonna do though.

 

[fnordcircle]

Brady had 81 more pass attempts, so that may have factored in to it somewhere. Though it still doesn't make sense given that Brady's completion % was still better.

Fewer TDs per attempt is what I'm guessing.

Doesn't matter to me because those 81 attempts factor out to what, 5 more attempts a game? I bet Tom would have traded 5 more attempts per game in order to have played 11 out of 16 games in a dome.

 

[MRBLAZE]

Doesn't matter to me because those 81 attempts factor out to what, 5 more attempts a game? I bet Tom would have traded 5 more attempts per game in order to have played 11 out of 16 games in a dome.

Exactly!!

:rocker:

He also would have thrown 50 TD's a hell of a lot sooner if he'd been in a dome.

 

[DarrylS]

Doesn't Aikman have a different rating system that many fans consider more viable than this system??

Sorry they rate the whole offensive performance:

http://troyaikman.wordpress.com/category/aikman-efficiency-ratings/

 

[Drewwho]

Think about this...ONLY 8 int's in 558 attempts. That is the best ever! Also, his TD/INT ratio of 50/8 is the best ever.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

578 pass attempts - 50 TD's - 8 interceptions
Best ever by the best ever!!!

 

[Miguel]

http://www.primecomputing.com/formula.htm

a = (((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20
b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5
c = (9.5 - ((Int/Att) * 100)) / 4
d = ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4

a, b, c and d can not be greater than 2.375 or less than zero.

QB Rating = (a + b + c + d) / .06

For Manning
a=(((336/497 *100)-30/20 = (67.60563-30)/20=37.60563/20=1.88028169
b=(49/497) * 100)/5=9.859155/5=1.971831
c=(9.5-((Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((10/497)*100)/4)=(9.5-2.012072)/4=7.487928/4=1.871982
d=(4557/497) -3/4=(9.169014-3)/4=6.169014/4=1.542254

QB =(1.880282+1.911831+1.871982+1.542254)/.06=7.266348/.06=121.1058

For Brady
a=(398/578*100)-30/20=(68.85813-30)/20=38.85813/20=1.942907
b=(50/578)*100/5=8.650519/5=1.730104
c=(9.5-(Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((8/578)*100/4=(9.5-1.384083)/4=8.115917/4=2.028979
d=(4806/578)-3)/4=(8.314879-3)/4=5.3134879/4=1.32872

QB rating=(1.942907+1.730101+2.028979+1.32872)/.06=7.030709/.06=117.1785

 

[Water Boy]

Looks like yards per attempt and TDs per attempt were the two variables that gave Manning a better QB rating that Brady.

 

[newton_tom_cat]

From Reiss's mailbag

I saw Tom Brady finished the season with a 117.2 passer rating. Where does this rank all time? I know he didn't break the completion percentage record, but did he take the passer rating record?
Edvin Jenssen, Trondheim, Norway

A: This ranks second all-time, behind Peyton Manning, who had a 121.1 rating in the 2004 season. Yet the interesting part of this is that when comparing Brady's 2007 stats to Manning's 2004 stats, Brady had more completions, a higher completion percentage, more yards, more touchdowns and fewer interceptions. :wha:



http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/01/01/perfect_questions/?page=4

he also scored w/ more super models

 

[bobmal99]

TB also only played one game in a dome all season..


http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/football/patriots/view.bg?articleid=1064063

From Reiss's mailbag

I saw Tom Brady finished the season with a 117.2 passer rating. Where does this rank all time? I know he didn't break the completion percentage record, but did he take the passer rating record?
Edvin Jenssen, Trondheim, Norway

A: This ranks second all-time, behind Peyton Manning, who had a 121.1 rating in the 2004 season. Yet the interesting part of this is that when comparing Brady's 2007 stats to Manning's 2004 stats, Brady had more completions, a higher completion percentage, more yards, more touchdowns and fewer interceptions. :wha:



http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/01/01/perfect_questions/?page=4

 

[dryheat44]

Don't get too worked up about it. I believe Brad Johnson is the leader in career passer rating (or at least he was as of three years ago). It shows you how little the stat is worth.

 

[Erdoboy]

Don't get too worked up about it. I believe Brad Johnson is the leader in career passer rating (or at least he was as of three years ago). It shows you how little the stat is worth.

On this point I am going to say, BS!

The last time I saw anything it was that Steve Young had the career passer rating mark. There is no way that Brad Johnson was more efficient with the ball than Young. In fact it is my guess that Johnson is not even top 10.

So I went and looked it up.
1- Steve Young 96.81
2-Peyton Manning 94.37

8- Tom Brady 88.36

these are before the stats for 2007 get factored in, So Brady would move up.
And here is a shocker, Brad Johnson is not eve in the top 20
:bricks:

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/story.jsp?story_id=2355

Erdoboy

 

[marty]

http://www.primecomputing.com/formula.htm

a = (((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20
b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5
c = (9.5 - ((Int/Att) * 100)) / 4
d = ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4

a, b, c and d can not be greater than 2.375 or less than zero.

QB Rating = (a + b + c + d) / .06

For Manning
a=(((336/497 *100)-30/20 = (67.60563-30)/20=37.60563/20=1.88028169
b=(49/497) * 100)/5=9.859155/5=1.971831
c=(9.5-((Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((10/497)*100)/4)=(9.5-2.012072)/4=7.487928/4=1.871982
d=(4557/497) -3/4=(9.169014-3)/4=6.169014/4=1.542254

QB =(1.880282+1.911831+1.871982+1.542254)/.06=7.266348/.06=121.1058

For Brady
a=(398/578*100)-30/20=(68.85813-30)/20=38.85813/20=1.942907
b=(50/578)*100/5=8.650519/5=1.730104
c=(9.5-(Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((8/578)*100/4=(9.5-1.384083)/4=8.115917/4=2.028979
d=(4806/578)-3)/4=(8.314879-3)/4=5.3134879/4=1.32872

QB rating=(1.942907+1.730101+2.028979+1.32872)/.06=7.030709/.06=117.1785

Miguel, all this at a little over 7am? SHOWOFF!!!! Most people just drink coffee to get revved up in the morning!

 

[upstater1]

On this point I am going to say, BS!

The last time I saw anything it was that Steve Young had the career passer rating mark. There is no way that Brad Johnson was more efficient with the ball than Young. In fact it is my guess that Johnson is not even top 10.

So I went and looked it up.
1- Steve Young 96.81
2-Peyton Manning 94.37

8- Tom Brady 88.36

these are before the stats for 2007 get factored in, So Brady would move up.
And here is a shocker, Brad Johnson is not eve in the top 20
:bricks:

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/story.jsp?story_id=2355

Erdoboy

All I know is that in the Montana-Marino years, Ken O'Brien was the best QB in the league!!!

 

[DaedalusX]

http://www.primecomputing.com/formula.htm

a = (((Comp/Att) * 100) -30) / 20
b = ((TDs/Att) * 100) / 5
c = (9.5 - ((Int/Att) * 100)) / 4
d = ((Yards/Att) - 3) / 4

a, b, c and d can not be greater than 2.375 or less than zero.

QB Rating = (a + b + c + d) / .06

For Manning
a=(((336/497 *100)-30/20 = (67.60563-30)/20=37.60563/20=1.88028169
b=(49/497) * 100)/5=9.859155/5=1.971831
c=(9.5-((Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((10/497)*100)/4)=(9.5-2.012072)/4=7.487928/4=1.871982
d=(4557/497) -3/4=(9.169014-3)/4=6.169014/4=1.542254

QB =(1.880282+1.911831+1.871982+1.542254)/.06=7.266348/.06=121.1058

For Brady
a=(398/578*100)-30/20=(68.85813-30)/20=38.85813/20=1.942907
b=(50/578)*100/5=8.650519/5=1.730104
c=(9.5-(Int/att) *100))/4=9.5-((8/578)*100/4=(9.5-1.384083)/4=8.115917/4=2.028979
d=(4806/578)-3)/4=(8.314879-3)/4=5.3134879/4=1.32872

QB rating=(1.942907+1.730101+2.028979+1.32872)/.06=7.030709/.06=117.1785

The most obvious flaw with this formula is that it doesn't weigh total attempts and completions, or total interceptions and attempts, in a meaningful way, so 3/4 COMP/ATT is just as good as 750/1000 COMP/ATT and 1/100 INT/ATT is just as good as 10/1000 INT/ATT.

The second most obvious flaw is that it makes no exceptions for style of play. It heavily favors high YPA over total completions and total attempts for equivalent total yardage. When a quarterback essentially replaces the running game with the short pass, this metric becomes absolutely meaningless for that style of play.

This isn't surprising since it was conceived of in 1973. As per Wikipedia:

The NFL's current passer rating (also known as quarterback rating) system was conceived by Pro Football Hall of Fame's retired vice president Don Smith in 1973. The system is a sliding scale design, where outstanding performances meet diminishing returns faster than sub-par ones. The best passer rating that a quarterback can obtain is 158.3, while the worst is zero. The architects of the passer rating had 66²⁄3 in mind as the "average" score, but as styles of play have changed, so have average passer ratings.

Now, seeing the actual formula, I see why Peyton is ranked higher. But I'm also convinced that this formula is bogus as a general metric of a QB's performance.

 

[dryheat44]

On this point I am going to say, BS!

The last time I saw anything it was that Steve Young had the career passer rating mark. There is no way that Brad Johnson was more efficient with the ball than Young. In fact it is my guess that Johnson is not even top 10.

So I went and looked it up.
1- Steve Young 96.81
2-Peyton Manning 94.37

8- Tom Brady 88.36

these are before the stats for 2007 get factored in, So Brady would move up.
And here is a shocker, Brad Johnson is not eve in the top 20
:bricks:

http://www.profootballhof.com/history/story.jsp?story_id=2355

Erdoboy

You can call BS on me...and you may be right. Maybe I'm thinking of the wrong statistic I had read 6 years ago (not 3...I remember it was in an article about a rookie QB named Brady)...or you may be wrong, and as Brad Johnson has gotten older, his ineptitude has caused his career passer rating to plummet. He was starting games as recently as last year.

I think my memory is correct, even if my feeble mind mis-remembered the "when". Johnson's career stats linked:

http://www.nfl.com/players/bradjohnson/profile?id=JOH322990

 

[speed]

Think about this...ONLY 8 int's in 558 attempts. That is the best ever! Also, his TD/INT ratio of 50/8 is the best ever.

Agreed, out of everything he did this year, to me, you'll probably never see this again.

You would think you'd have more than that, just from tipped balls, guys tripping on routes, etc.

Otherwise, the rating system is bad, always has been, imho. I'm most surprised someone hasn't come up with a 100%-being perfect system that would do away with this. I am also surprised the NFL even recognizes this stat.