Colvin versus Samuel

[cstjohn17]

I didn't think of this until today, I am not that smart so forgive me if this has been discussed.

Looking at the cap situation for next year, I have already made these assumptions:
- start the offseason with $12M
- Moss signed, guess 3 years $16M (steal, absolute steal), about $4.5 M in year 1
- Stallworth cut, save $6.3~
- Washington cut, save $2.0 M~

This would leave the Pats with approximately ~ of cap space

Colvin has a hit of 7,328,000 and there would be a charge of $1,828,000 if he was cut (savings of $5.5 M). I am not as down on Colvin as others but bitness is bitness.
http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

This would leave about $21.3M which is a ton of cash some of it could be used to sign Samuel. If Colvin is retained $14~ would be available making it difficult to sign Samuel.

Does this all work in reality or is it a pipe dream?

 

[satz]

I think your scenario is correct if the goal is to maximize cap and not talent.
stallworth has a below market deal with us at 29 milion.alot less then dieon branch and he has more skills and potential then branch. He will be a true #1 WR in a year . He is 26 people forget that WR peak at 27 -28 in NFL.

also , we need to sign gay,wilson and samuel. colvin is very critical as is the edge rusher we use extensively against bigger tackles where his speed is clearly gives him a big jump .He is the right pass rush specialist in 4-3 alignment.I would think AD should be moved back to MLB and brushi/lua/draft pick/alexander should manage the weak side LB post for us.

brushi is like the old bru when under 40 snaps a game please lets keep it that way in that case playcalling will be on AD. I want him their as he is the QB of the front seven
just me want to use cap = increase talent

 

[slash83]

release colvin and use the extra money to help sign asante if not that then use it to extend wilfork.

 

[ALP]

looking at the website u have posted....dang....

we have a LOT of guys leaving after next season....

 

[mgteich]

We are not in cap trouble. We have the cap money sign Samuel if we want to, with few cap issues.

Your strategies of playing without linebackers in intriguing. You do understand that Bruschi and Seau can at best share ONE position.

 

[Michigan Dave]

I'd expect Colvin to re-structure. We need him.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I didn't think of this until today, I am not that smart so forgive me if this has been discussed.

Looking at the cap situation for next year, I have already made these assumptions:
- start the offseason with $12M
- Moss signed, guess 3 years $16M (steal, absolute steal), about $4.5 M in year 1
- Stallworth cut, save $6.3~
- Washington cut, save $2.0 M~

This would leave the Pats with approximately ~ of cap space

Colvin has a hit of 7,328,000 and there would be a charge of $1,828,000 if he was cut (savings of $5.5 M). I am not as down on Colvin as others but bitness is bitness.
http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

This would leave about $21.3M which is a ton of cash some of it could be used to sign Samuel. If Colvin is retained $14~ would be available making it difficult to sign Samuel.

Does this all work in reality or is it a pipe dream?

It's not a pipe dream so much as you simply refuse to get it. It's been discussed ad nauseum. No matter what they gave Asante in a long term deal, his cap hit in year 1 would likely be less than the $7.8M it was this year, probably exponentially less. Thing is, they aren't going to overpay him for his value here versus what some other market GM's think he's worth irrespective of cap hit. What they think he's worth is at issue, not if they can afford him in the unit, on the roster or under the cap.

Colvin has nothing to do with the equation. You don't cut a productive 30 year old OLB who was having one of his best seasons as a Patriot whose cap can be cut in half as part of a 3-4 year extension. Not for any reason, let alone to fund overpaying someone else. The last thing we need is another LB to replace. CB's we can draft and develop easier.

Moss isn't going to play here for peanuts, either. And BB wouldn't insult him the way you do. He made more than you project this season. If they are of a like mind he will sign for something in the $7-8M per range for 3-4 years with around $15M guaranteed. Still a substantial discount over the $9.5M average he was due to collect in 2007-2008 under his old deal. If they like Stallworth as their 26 year old #2 who can be legit replacement to Moss, his deal will also not be a problem. And it can be reworked even without being reduced so that the cap hits are in the $3.5-4.5M range for 2008-2009.

Washington has been a great gunner, but not at the money he's signed to. So unless they plan for him to replace Gaffney as well as play gunner, he's likely gone.

 

[Fencer]

In any one year, one can afford almost anybody, just by pushing the problems out to future years.

But one can't afford everybody all years.

I'm guessing Asante isn't re-signed, despite is value. I think Seymour is gone in a couple of years. I think Wilson is gone to a starting job elsewhere instead of being #3-4 safety here. I think Stallworth is gone. I think most of the rest will be kept, including Colvin on a new, not-bank-breaking contract, and Wilfork and Mankins in future years.

 

[cstjohn17]

It's not a pipe dream so much as you simply refuse to get it. It's been discussed ad nauseum. No matter what they gave Asante in a long term deal, his cap hit in year 1 would likely be less than the $7.8M it was this year, probably exponentially less. Thing is, they aren't going to overpay him for his value here versus what some other market GM's think he's worth irrespective of cap hit. What they think he's worth is at issue, not if they can afford him in the unit, on the roster or under the cap.

Colvin has nothing to do with the equation. You don't cut a productive 30 year old OLB who was having one of his best seasons as a Patriot whose cap can be cut in half as part of a 3-4 year extension. Not for any reason, let alone to fund overpaying someone else. The last thing we need is another LB to replace. CB's we can draft and develop easier.

Moss isn't going to play here for peanuts, either. And BB wouldn't insult him the way you do. He made more than you project this season. If they are of a like mind he will sign for something in the $7-8M per range for 3-4 years with around $15M guaranteed. Still a substantial discount over the $9.5M average he was due to collect in 2007-2008 under his old deal. If they like Stallworth as their 26 year old #2 who can be legit replacement to Moss, his deal will also not be a problem. And it can be reworked even without being reduced so that the cap hits are in the $3.5-4.5M range for 2008-2009.

Washington has been a great gunner, but not at the money he's signed to. So unless they plan for him to replace Gaffney as well as play gunner, he's likely gone.

I guess 'getting it' is a matter of perspective. None of us have the ear of BB or SP so everything that is posted in pure speculation. Lots of people talk about Colvin re-structuring, Stallworth re-structuring, Brady extending, Washington re-structuring, etc., etc., etc. but that is a lot of dominoes to fall.

IMO it is not a slam dunk that Samuel leaves, the odds are not good but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Personally I would cut Colvin if a 26 year old pro-bowl CB could be signed.

I threw it out there as an alternative, something to consider. Good discussion, lets see how it plays out.

 

[mcbee]

I think Samuel leaves, Colvin may be extended and have his cap hit reduced.

I could see them signing Jason Taylor for 5M per year or so if he's cut if Colvin isn't resigned.

And although he's a good player, any player getting 10M at his age and with his team in turmoil and needing to be rebuilt could be cut.

BB has proven ability to develop CBs, I think he develops another and gets rid of SAmuel.

Stallworth should go, for his sake and the team's. He's good but could do more on another team, and we have people behind him to get playing time, Gaffney, Jackson.

Plus they may sign a veteran ILB. Maybe Seau again.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

have to think future.

guys like gay, gaffney, sanders, hobbs, vrabel will require moderate payraises to keep within the next few years(vrabel's hits are already at about 4m/season). moss, wilfork, and maybe mankins will require a hefty raise to keep. those 3 i believe we must resign.

we could easily keep asante AND extend colvin and be fine the next 2-3 years but it may be harder to resign all the other players and it would probably put us right up against the cap for years. i think we play it safe and let asante walk, colvin IMO we need to resign as seau/bruschi are not getting any younger and LB could become a big problem. cb's have been rather replaceable in our defense, especially visible in the 04 season when we lost both starters.

another option could be switch to a 4-3 which would allow us to cut colvin and keep the stud corner

 

[Frezo]

How do you guys feel about Izzo? His one year, vet min, extension is up and there has been talk in the past of possible retirement. If he doesn't come back or is released, it raises the value of KW and possibly makes him the ST captain. Wasn't there some talk of KW's contract status a couple of months ago?

 

[Rob0729]

I didn't think of this until today, I am not that smart so forgive me if this has been discussed.

Looking at the cap situation for next year, I have already made these assumptions:
- start the offseason with $12M
- Moss signed, guess 3 years $16M (steal, absolute steal), about $4.5 M in year 1
- Stallworth cut, save $6.3~
- Washington cut, save $2.0 M~

This would leave the Pats with approximately ~ of cap space

Colvin has a hit of 7,328,000 and there would be a charge of $1,828,000 if he was cut (savings of $5.5 M). I am not as down on Colvin as others but bitness is bitness.
http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

This would leave about $21.3M which is a ton of cash some of it could be used to sign Samuel. If Colvin is retained $14~ would be available making it difficult to sign Samuel.

Does this all work in reality or is it a pipe dream?

Moss has said he will take somewhat of a discount to stay, but he also sounded like it would not be an incredibly deep discount. He is going to want something that is closer to Marvin Harrison type money than you throw out there.

As for Colvin, I agree with others that Colvin knows he will have to restructure. I think he likes it here and will be willing to restructure his contract especially since he won't be commanding huge money elsewhere.

 

[Rob0729]

How do you guys feel about Izzo? His one year, vet min, extension is up and there has been talk in the past of possible retirement. If he doesn't come back or is released, it raises the value of KW and possibly makes him the ST captain. Wasn't there some talk of KW's contract status a couple of months ago?

Washington would have to seriously renegotiate his contract. He is due decent #2 WR money if the Pats pick up his bonus. That is far too much for a special teamer.

As for news about his contract, Miguel reported (through someone else) that the type of bonus he would get would be amortized over the life of his contract rather than hit all in 2008. That doesn't really help if we want to keep him primarily as a STer.

 

[ATippett56]

Looking at the cap situation for next year, I have already made these assumptions:
- start the offseason with $12M
- Moss signed, guess 3 years $16M (steal, absolute steal), about $4.5 M in year 1
- Stallworth cut, save $6.3~
- Washington cut, save $2.0 M~

At a minimum, it will take $21 million for three years and $12 million in signing bonus to keep Randy Moss. More likely, it will take $25 million for three years to retain Moss with the New England Patriots. Randy Moss is no dummy.

As for Stallworth, he is expendable based upon the lack of production in the last four games this season. Heck, a fire hydrant (or Jabar Gaffney) could produce his numbers with Moss and Welker on the field.

 

[BTTA]

We've got two primary weaknesses on defense - lateral speed from the IL's and cover skills from the CB's (tall recievers kill us).

Solve those first, then figure out which WR to keep to go with Moss, Gafney, and Welker.

 

[ATippett56]

Solve those first, then figure out which WR to keep to go with Moss, Gafney, and Welker.

Stallworth is expendable for the salary cap charge he will carry in 2008. Gaffney could be signed on the cheap (less than $1 million) hopefully "the light will turn on" for Chad Jackson in 2008.

 

[solman]

Samuel is going to cost more than he is worth.

You don't win championships in a salary cap league by paying players more than they are worth.

Its not even worth thinking about re-sigining him.

End of story.

 

[sieglo]

Don't forget we also need to sign a #7 pick.

I think Stallworth is gone for sure. That's all I'm convinced of at this point.

 

[Dr Pain]

If Moss stays then we need to sign Samuel as teams will be throwing against us as teams will still need huge points to stay in the game.