Manning (2004) vs. Brady (2007) actual playing time

[mgcolby]

This is in response to Arr (I believe) in another thread but I figured I would share it with the masses and the best way to do that was with its own thread.

Manning of 2004 played 9 of his 15 games in a dome and all in good weather.

Brady in his 15 games has played in high winds in Baltimore, Sleet/Snow/Rain and high winds against the Jets.

Manning played a total of six games outdoors and only one of those six games were played outdoors during the months of November and December (Chicago Nov 21st, Weather 43 and partly cloudy). He did not play in one game affected by the weather.

Manning was on the sidelines for a total of 27:45 minutes during the first 15 games of the season and played a game in OT. The majority of that (16:15) came against Detroit. Brady has been on the sideline for 45:55 minutes in the first 15 games, that doesn't include the majority of the 2nd half against Miami back in October where he played for a total of 6:23 minutes. Does anyone disagree that Brady could have thrown at least one more TD in that extra 18:10 minutes? Heck, you could even add in the extra 2:47 minutes Manning received for the overtime against SD. That would give Brady a total of 20:57.

That means Brady has until the 9:03 mark of the 2nd quarter against the Giants to throw 49 TD's in the same amount of actual gametime as Manning. And he did that playing the final seven games of the season in the northeast, four at home and three on the road in Buffalo, Baltimore and New York.

Then you could add in other little tidbits like the Colts had a total of 10 rushing TD's for the entire season and the Patriots have 15 after 15 games.

 

[Tommysgirl]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling the Colt fan mentality will find a way to dispute this and call you a liar (save a few of them who have basic math skills).

Thanks for doing all this work.

 

[jman924]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

This is in response to Arr (I believe) in another thread but I figured I would share it with the masses and the best way to do that was with its own thread.

Manning of 2004 played 9 of his 15 games in a dome and all in good weather.

Brady in his 15 games has played in high winds in Baltimore, Sleet/Snow/Rain and high winds against the Jets.

Manning played a total of six games outdoors and only one of those six games were played outdoors during the months of November and December (Chicago Nov 21st, Weather 43 and partly cloudy). He did not play in one game affected by the weather.

Manning was on the sidelines for a total of 27:45 minutes during the first 15 games of the season and played a game in OT. The majority of that (16:15) came against Detroit. Brady has been on the sideline for 45:55 minutes in the first 15 games, that doesn't include the majority of the 2nd half against Miami back in October where he played for a total of 6:23 minutes. Does anyone disagree that Brady could have thrown at least one more TD in that extra 18:10 minutes? Heck, you could even add in the extra 2:47 minutes Manning received for the overtime against SD. That would give Brady a total of 20:57.

That means Brady has until the 9:03 mark of the 2nd quarter against the Giants to throw 49 TD's in the same amount of actual gametime as Manning. And he did that playing the final seven games of the season in the northeast, four at home and three on the road in Buffalo, Baltimore and New York.

Then you could add in other little tidbits like the Colts had a total of 10 rushing TD's for the entire season and the Patriots have 15 after 15 games.

The new arguement would be number of pass attempts.
Brady's got more. It is easier to throw bombs down the field with fewer attempts when you play inside though.

 

[mgcolby]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

The new arguement would be number of pass attempts.
Brady's got more. It is easier to throw bombs down the field with fewer attempts when you play inside though.

Maybe, but how many of those attempts were checkdowns and short "move the chains" passes?

 

[richpats]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

The new arguement would be number of pass attempts.
Brady's got more. It is easier to throw bombs down the field with fewer attempts when you play inside though.

Attempts isn't as relevant as the number of possessions taken to throw 49 TD's. That would be worth researching, but not today.

 

[DarrylS]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Manning should have an asterisk after his record...

 

[FootballFan85]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Attempts isn't as relevant as the number of possessions taken to throw 49 TD's. That would be worth researching, but not today.

Actually pass attempts is a key stat to look at here as the fact that this year TB has 536 attempts vs PMs 497 in his record year. TB will undoubtedly throw at least 10 more attempts. So expect TB to finish out the year with about 50 more attempts in LESS time on the field as youve pointed out. Meaning PM threw more TDs in less attempts by this point in the season. This could show a team favouring the pass more or it could show that Manning let Edgerin James run up the field and then put the ball in the air for the TD. However, I think anyway you look at these stats youre splitting hairs.

I.e., one could easily argue that since PM was scoring TDs at a rate of 1 per 10.1 pass attempts, had he thrown as many as Brady by the end of Week 16, hed have an extra 3.86 TDs. We'll round that down and call it 3, making the record 52. This is complete speculation and an argument that does not hold up, but it just goes to show trying to break down stats to show an edge here or there can easily be turned both ways and people can easily mutilate stats to show their point. Its no different coming from either side.

To me the big breaker on this one wouldve been Bradys INT's. If Brady hadve been more willing to scan the field in the last 3 or 4 games instead of trying to force balls into spots they shouldnt be in trying to get Moss and himself the records, I think he'd both have the TD record by the end of the season, and likely with 5 interceptions. THAT to me would be what really puts his mark on the record. Edging Peyton by 1 (which I believe is what will happen) or 2 is good, but if he did it with half the picks, that wouldve really been the cherry on top.

 

[Joker]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

8 games in a climate controlled dome

1 each in fair weather cities Jax,Tenn and Houston

add in the Polian Rules and the slanted refs in the dome and he should of had SEVENTY touchdown passes

 

[richpats]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

To me the big breaker on this one wouldve been Bradys INT's. If Brady hadve been more willing to scan the field in the last 3 or 4 games instead of trying to force balls into spots they shouldnt be in trying to get Moss and himself the records, I think he'd both have the TD record by the end of the season, and likely with 5 interceptions. THAT to me would be what really puts his mark on the record. Edging Peyton by 1 (which I believe is what will happen) or 2 is good, but if he did it with half the picks, that wouldve really been the cherry on top.

So if Brady has 52 TD's after tomorrow, does that qualify as a "cherry"?

 

[BradyToMoss]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

This is in response to Arr (I believe) in another thread but I figured I would share it with the masses and the best way to do that was with its own thread.

Manning of 2004 played 9 of his 15 games in a dome and all in good weather.

Brady in his 15 games has played in high winds in Baltimore, Sleet/Snow/Rain and high winds against the Jets.

Manning played a total of six games outdoors and only one of those six games were played outdoors during the months of November and December (Chicago Nov 21st, Weather 43 and partly cloudy). He did not play in one game affected by the weather.

Manning was on the sidelines for a total of 27:45 minutes during the first 15 games of the season and played a game in OT. The majority of that (16:15) came against Detroit. Brady has been on the sideline for 45:55 minutes in the first 15 games, that doesn't include the majority of the 2nd half against Miami back in October where he played for a total of 6:23 minutes. Does anyone disagree that Brady could have thrown at least one more TD in that extra 18:10 minutes? Heck, you could even add in the extra 2:47 minutes Manning received for the overtime against SD. That would give Brady a total of 20:57.

That means Brady has until the 9:03 mark of the 2nd quarter against the Giants to throw 49 TD's in the same amount of actual gametime as Manning. And he did that playing the final seven games of the season in the northeast, four at home and three on the road in Buffalo, Baltimore and New York.

Then you could add in other little tidbits like the Colts had a total of 10 rushing TD's for the entire season and the Patriots have 15 after 15 games.

Great stuff, great work. Don't forget about that frigid Sunday night game in Buffalo where Tommy absolutely lit them up !!!

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Does any of this matter?

Brady's TD count is going into the record books, there won't a note regarding playing time, how many attempts he made, amount of time Cassel or Sorgi did or didn't play.

Rice's only playing 12 games might be worth a note, if he falls to second place.

But there will be no footnote about how many mins Sorgi played next to Peyton's name.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Actually pass attempts is a key stat to look at here as the fact that this year TB has 536 attempts vs PMs 497 in his record year. TB will undoubtedly throw at least 10 more attempts. So expect TB to finish out the year with about 50 more attempts in LESS time on the field as youve pointed out. Meaning PM threw more TDs in less attempts by this point in the season. This could show a team favouring the pass more or it could show that Manning let Edgerin James run up the field and then put the ball in the air for the TD. However, I think anyway you look at these stats youre splitting hairs.

I.e., one could easily argue that since PM was scoring TDs at a rate of 1 per 10.1 pass attempts, had he thrown as many as Brady by the end of Week 16, hed have an extra 3.86 TDs. We'll round that down and call it 3, making the record 52. This is complete speculation and an argument that does not hold up, but it just goes to show trying to break down stats to show an edge here or there can easily be turned both ways and people can easily mutilate stats to show their point. Its no different coming from either side.

To me the big breaker on this one wouldve been Bradys INT's. If Brady hadve been more willing to scan the field in the last 3 or 4 games instead of trying to force balls into spots they shouldnt be in trying to get Moss and himself the records, I think he'd both have the TD record by the end of the season, and likely with 5 interceptions. THAT to me would be what really puts his mark on the record. Edging Peyton by 1 (which I believe is what will happen) or 2 is good, but if he did it with half the picks, that wouldve really been the cherry on top.

I don't find # of attempts as particularly compelling in this argument.

Is it Brady's fault that he has MORE passing attempts in LESS playing time? should that work AGAINST him in the argument of whose record means more?

It might be worth considering if the argument was about scoring efficiency or something, but not overall # of TDs ... at least in my opinion.

 

[FootballFan85]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

So if Brady has 52 TD's after tomorrow, does that qualify as a "cherry"?

Depends, but to be honest, I don't see ithappening.

If the Giants play their scrubs tomorow, which I think they will, then I doubt youll see Brady beat the record by more than one. Brady wants the record, so he'll get it, BUT, theres no pride in running up the record against a bunch of scrubs and Brady has too much class to do that. I think youll see him throw 2, hit 50 and then start working the running game. The game should be more or less locked up.

 

[C'est La Vie]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

This is in response to Arr (I believe) in another thread but I figured I would share it with the masses and the best way to do that was with its own thread.

Manning of 2004 played 9 of his 15 games in a dome and all in good weather.

Brady in his 15 games has played in high winds in Baltimore, Sleet/Snow/Rain and high winds against the Jets.

Manning played a total of six games outdoors and only one of those six games were played outdoors during the months of November and December (Chicago Nov 21st, Weather 43 and partly cloudy). He did not play in one game affected by the weather.

Manning was on the sidelines for a total of 27:45 minutes during the first 15 games of the season and played a game in OT. The majority of that (16:15) came against Detroit. Brady has been on the sideline for 45:55 minutes in the first 15 games, that doesn't include the majority of the 2nd half against Miami back in October where he played for a total of 6:23 minutes. Does anyone disagree that Brady could have thrown at least one more TD in that extra 18:10 minutes? Heck, you could even add in the extra 2:47 minutes Manning received for the overtime against SD. That would give Brady a total of 20:57.

That means Brady has until the 9:03 mark of the 2nd quarter against the Giants to throw 49 TD's in the same amount of actual gametime as Manning. And he did that playing the final seven games of the season in the northeast, four at home and three on the road in Buffalo, Baltimore and New York.

Then you could add in other little tidbits like the Colts had a total of 10 rushing TD's for the entire season and the Patriots have 15 after 15 games.

Could you break that down into seconds? I'm not one on the "# of games" bandwagon, but who here doesn't think PM could have racked up a few TD's in that last game at home versus Denver?? Wasn't it a week later when he threw 3+ on them??

In the end, silly arguement. brady does it, he does it. Congrats. Great season.

 

[the taildragger]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

I.e., one could easily argue that since PM was scoring TDs at a rate of 1 per 10.1 pass attempts, had he thrown as many as Brady by the end of Week 16, hed have an extra 3.86 TDs.

easily refutable: if PM could've raised the bar by throwing more, then why didn't he?

Because efficiency stats go DOWN the more you throw. Just ask Big Ben or Garrard (does their higher efficiency alone make them better than Brady or even PM?). That's why TB's relative efficiency (given the huge # of attempts) is so freaking impressive.

For example, PM-04 averaged 30 attempts while TB-07 averages 36 attempts. The pass/run ratios of both teams were a wash. So TB-07 HAS THROWN 20% MORE THAN PM-04. Yet his efficiency stats are right in line with PM in his best statistical year. Then you cancel their weak 2004 AFCS with the equally horrible 2007 AFCE, and add the cushy dome and the fact that NE's top 3 receivers are BRAND NEW....you know, PERSPECTIVE.

If you want to ignore all that, then it really comes down to the final tally.

I like the idea of comparing # of possessions, or even weighting them somehow by schedule strength or even using some weather variables, problem is we're trying to win an argument with idiot Colts fans.

IND-04 scored 2.9 points per drive, and scored TDs on 36.7% of drives.
NE-07 is scoring 3.4 points per drive, and scored TDs on 43.1% of drives.

Indy was historically efficient that season, but Brady has led an even more efficient offense, and again, that's despite the elements and the relative lack of familiarity with the new toys.

And I've never liked discrediting a QB for leading a drive resulting in a running TD....I'd favor a more comprehensive scoring model that includes a discount on running TDs, especially given the fact that they are directly related to the nickel and dime packages that great passing teams consistently face.

Bottom line is that Colts fans have always held up QB STATS (which as we all know are actually a broad reflection of total team offense and impossible to mathematically separate into individual factors)....and now these people can't fall back on STATS whenever they can't handle the growing qualitative disparity between the two players.

Therefore the case is closed.

 

[mgcolby]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

bump for IAN's site. Maybe this info can help you a bit.

 

[bigfandan]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Brady can win 2 more superbowls; Pats as an organization needs to do a lot better (than past 2 years) on talent development, coaching and game day to maximize the window of opportunities. If we can do that, who cares about effing Manning.

 

[FootballFan85]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Why on earth would anyone count playing time as anything meaningful???


If 2 QB's take a snap, and one takes a quick drop and throws a pass for a 10 yd completion, his playing time for that particular play might be 4 seconds.

Whereas if the second QB takes the snap, doesn't see anything at first and rolls out towards the sidelines to avoid a pass rush and then throws a 10 yard pass, his playing time on that play might be 8 seconds.

Double the first guys even though they both produced the exact same result.

Not to mention that a QB could hand the ball off at the 10 yard line and have his RB run 90 yds and he'd be credited with the 'playing time' on the entire run.

The point is playing time is essentially meaningless in this comparison.

You're talking 30 minutes difference, or less than 2 minutes per game.

If you want to compare stats, number of attempts is more important because it means Brady had to throw the ball more to get to where he was than Manning did. Check the post made in Ian's other thread regarding touchdown %. Mannings was higher, and if you were to push Mannings attempts to match Brady's, he'd have had 57 TDs based on his TD %. Now obviously no one can ever say that would be a guarantee, but its pretty safe to say that had Manning stayed in and played til the end of the season and taken all those extra attempts, he probably would've hit at least 51 or 52, and 50 wouldve been almost a guarantee.

 

[glm]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

And Manning played much easier defenses.

 

[mgcolby]

Re: Manning (2004) vs Brady (2007) actual playing time

Why on earth would anyone count playing time as anything meaningful???


If 2 QB's take a snap, and one takes a quick drop and throws a pass for a 10 yd completion, his playing time for that particular play might be 4 seconds.

Whereas if the second QB takes the snap, doesn't see anything at first and rolls out towards the sidelines to avoid a pass rush and then throws a 10 yard pass, his playing time on that play might be 8 seconds.

Double the first guys even though they both produced the exact same result.

Not to mention that a QB could hand the ball off at the 10 yard line and have his RB run 90 yds and he'd be credited with the 'playing time' on the entire run.

The point is playing time is essentially meaningless in this comparison.

You're talking 30 minutes difference, or less than 2 minutes per game.

If you want to compare stats, number of attempts is more important because it means Brady had to throw the ball more to get to where he was than Manning did. Check the post made in Ian's other thread regarding touchdown %. Mannings was higher, and if you were to push Mannings attempts to match Brady's, he'd have had 57 TDs based on his TD %. Now obviously no one can ever say that would be a guarantee, but its pretty safe to say that had Manning stayed in and played til the end of the season and taken all those extra attempts, he probably would've hit at least 51 or 52, and 50 wouldve been almost a guarantee.

Not trying to rehash this debate. Just wanted to give IAN the info. But to put the thread in context, this was a response to Colts fans, in this case a specific one, who kept coming here throwing out the argument of "Payton played in two less games", when in fact he hadn't.