ESPN's Green: Pats will lose to Jags

[HughesMiester]

From Insider analyst Jeremy Green:

There are a couple of things I am pretty sure about as the 2007 playoffs approach: the New England Patriots are going to finish the regular season at 16-0 and the Jacksonville Jaguars will beat them if they play in the Divisional round of the playoffs.

David Garrard has thrown a league-low two interceptions.
Last week I wrote a blog about how the Vikings could go to the Super Bowl. I said could. Now I am going to tell you why the Jaguars would beat the Patriots in the postseason. The Jaguars are motivated, this team is built for the cold weather, the Patriots defense is overrated and Jaguars QB David Garrard is underrated. Simply put, the Patriots should be worried.

First, let's start with a little motivation. Head coach Jack Del Rio will be politically correct with the media and in front of the cameras, but I wonder what he is telling his team these days? He will sell the fact that every team they play does not respect them, the other staff does not respect them and even their fans do not respect them. I couldn't believe the Jaguars did not have at least one player named to the Pro Bowl. In fact, I had to hit the TiVo rewind button and watch the AFC selections again to make sure I didn't miss something. In my opinion Garrard should have been named over Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and RB Fred Taylor should have gone over Colts RB Joseph Addai or Steelers RB Willie Parker. However, these players being snubbed will play into Del Rio's psychological approach with his team. He has pushed all the right buttons all season and this will be the next one.

The second reason the Jaguars are going to win is because they are better equipped to win in Foxborough than the Patriots. Before their Week 15 game in Pittsburgh, I had one question left with the Jaguars -- could they get it done on a sloppy field in cold weather? They answered that by bullying one of the biggest bullies on the block and walked away with a statement win over the Steelers.

Plus, Tom Brady and the Patriots' high-flying offense have not been quite as potent through the air since the weather changed in the Northeast. Windy conditions and cold temperatures have clearly bothered the Pats' offense. While that hasn't stopped them from trying to throw it all over the field, but at least they tried to establish a running game Sunday against the Jets. RB Laurence Maroney rushed for 104 yards, but that performance was against the Jets' 30th-ranked run defense and the yards did not come easily. Remember Jaguars own the fifth-ranked run defense and have consistently shut down the run early and often. So if there is snow, wind or cold weather, that's an advantage for the Jaguars.

Fred Taylor
Fred Taylor rushed for 147 yards and one TD in the Jags' win over the Steelers.
The third reason is the Patriots' run defense. Can anyone find it lately? Sure, the Patriots are ranked No. 10 against the run in the NFL, but that stat can get thrown out the window because it will be useless against the Jags. The Patriots have such a high ranking because they blow teams out and negate their running game. However, the Jaguars will be in the game because they don't get blown out. New England has an excellent defensive front, but the Jaguars' offensive line is still more physical. If the Jaguars can get their offensive line to the second level, their second-ranked running game led by Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew will run for over 200 yards. The Patriots may feature a big-name group of linebackers, but they are overrated. Tedy Bruschi can't get off blocks anymore, Junior Seau is no longer an every-down player, Mike Vrabel does not play the run well and Adalius Thomas has not been the stud the Patriots thought he would be.

My final reason the Patriots won't get past Jacksonville is Garrard. He is the leader this team has been seeking. Garrard does not turn the ball over or put his defense in bad positions. He is also the guy who can make plays with his big-time arm, like he did against Pittsburgh in poor conditions. The Jaguars' signal-caller plays in a nice, controlled passing offense where he spreads the ball around. Plus, he has the ability to frustrate a defense with his ability to extend drives by running for first downs. And despite popular belief, he is more than a game manager. Garrard is a guy that can win games for his team and done it with an average receiving corps. He should be able to have success against an overhyped Patriots' secondary. CB Ellis Hobbs has been up and down and SS Rodney Harrison is primarily a box player at this point in his career. As long as Garrard stays away from CB Asante Samuel, he will make plays in the passing game.

I know people will laugh at me, but the Jaguars are built to upset the Patriots. They are a ticked off team that takes care of the football, stops the run and runs the ball very well. Plus, they smack their opponents in the mouth and play solid special teams. But most importantly, Jacksonville will not be intimidated by anyone, and that includes undefeated New England.

 

[patsox23]

Green's been beating this drum for weeks. He's an idiot. Jax may be the Patriots EASIEST opponent. I can't believe ESPN hires these fools and tools.

 

[patriotspride]

From Insider analyst Jeremy Green:

yawnnnnnnnnnnnnnn whatever

 

[aluminum seats]

I for one welcome all this kind of stuff--I want as much national buzz as possible about other teams, and how they'll beat the Pats. I think we've all seen how that tends to work out.

 

[HughesMiester]

I think the Jags are good too; but a reason that they're going to beat us is Garrard??? Come on! Belichick would show him schemes he's never seen before.

 

[PatsDeb]

Bring it on, JAgs. I guess this guy missed the two games at the end of 2005 (wasn't Garrard the QB in one of those? and they went back to Leftwich because they thought they had a better shot with him on a bad ankle?) where we wiped the field with Jax. I'm not saying they will be an easy opponent, but to suggest they are hungrier or more P.O.'d than the Pats is ludicrous.

 

[Dr Pain]

I for one welcome all this kind of stuff--I want as much national buzz as possible about other teams, and how they'll beat the Pats. I think we've all seen how that tends to work out.

I agree. I think this is great. Look how well this worked out for the Steelers

 

[letekro]

Bring it on, JAgs. I guess this guy missed the two games at the end of 2005 (wasn't Garrard the QB in one of those? and they went back to Leftwich because they thought they had a better shot with him on a bad ankle?) where we wiped the field with Jax. I'm not saying they will be an easy opponent, but to suggest they are hungrier or more P.O.'d than the Pats is ludicrous.

We played them last year in Jax, with Garrard. They were playing for a playoff spot. And we soundly beat them. They beat a struggling Steelers team and all of the sudden they're worldbeaters. It's completely ridiculous.

 

[chrisfx811]

Pats need to really watch out for the clever schemes the Jags put together, and the way JDR puts his teams in position to win the big games, like against Indy...... yea.

Oh, not to mention the recent BIG wins over Carolina, Buffalo, and Tennessee recently. if they can hold those offenses in check, God only knows what sort of havoc they could create against the struggling Patriots.

 

[richpats]

If they are so good, why do they have 4 losses? And why aren't the 3 teams that BEAT Jacksonville (IND, TEN, Saints) a bigger threat to NE?

Silly questions, I know.

 

[flasox27]

They are the flavor of the month. All we do is put Harrison in the box and have Garrard and his receivers try to beat us in January in Foxboro.

 

[ljuneau]

How many teams, week after week, have the stars alligned perfectly to beat the Patriots? This stuff is getting old and rediculous. I do hope we play the Jags. This article will look great on the Pat's bulletinboard.

 

[primetime]

They lost to the Colts twice, and the games weren't particularly close. They were outcoached by a worse team in the Titans, and the Saints beat them with Quinn Gray at the helm.

Frankly, Del Rio doesn't scare me at all as a coach. They needed a last minute drive to beat a beat-up Steelers squad despite dominating them all game... if they were a legitimate threat to the Patriots, they'd have beaten the Colts. They got their two shots at them.

The Patriots beat the same Jaguars team soundly last year when the Jags were playing for the playoffs, and a similar Jaguars team two years ago very soundly in the playoffs. They don't scare me.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

What is it with the Jag(off)s..
Every year you hear about how they are going to knock off the colts, and then, inevitably, they get trounced. Twice.

If I had a dollar for every time there has been a prediction about how a team with a bruising running game and a great D is going to beat the Pats, I would be a rich man. This goes all the way back to Carolina in the second SB.

Jax has a lousy secondary and lousy receivers, to boot.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

They are the flavor of the month. All we do is put Harrison in the box and have Garrard and his receivers try to beat us in January in Foxboro.[/QUOTE]

Ain't gonna happen

 

[Pats Fanatic]

So what the guy goes on about the Jags 5 ranked run defense but nothing about their 25 ranked pass defense.

 

[Mogamedogz]

New week... new team... same TIRED azz story.

The fact of the matter is... the Patriots, at their core, are still the most versatile team in the league. They have been that way for about 7 years now. They can adjust to play any style of football better than any team (possibly) in the history of the league.

You want to play smash mouth?? They can grind it out. You want a shoot-out?? No problem. Bad weather?? Check the record... Blitz the house?? They dink and dunk you all day long. You think you can run?? Only if they let you by design (because your QB isn’t good enough to beat them through the air).

When are these idiots going to wake up? The Patriots have no particular style of play. They are hybrids, who change things up at the drop of a dime.

 

[amazinPats]

I might find the argument more convincing if the Jags had been able to beat the Colts just once this season. Truth is that they got manhandled both games, and the second loss caught them when they were even playing good ball. They can't beat teams who have the capacity to pour on points quickly. Jags need to be ahead and control things. They couldnt' get it done against Indy--they weren't even CLOSE to getting it done against them twice this season.

 

[Mogamedogz]

I might find the argument more convincing if the Jags had been able to beat the Colts just once this season. Truth is that they got manhandled both games, and the second loss caught them when they were even playing good ball. They can't beat teams who have the capacity to pour on points quickly. Jags need to be ahead and control things. They couldnt' get it done against Indy--they weren't even CLOSE to getting it done against them twice this season.

Personally... I thought the Jags got robbed in the Second Indy game. But that is here nor there. A loss is a loss.

 

[xmarkd400x]

They are the flavor of the month. All we do is put Harrison in the box and have Garrard and his receivers try to beat us in January in Foxboro.

Logic has no place here.