rookBoston
In the Starting Line-Up
- Joined
- Sep 13, 2004
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After years of picking Carpenter, Lawson, Posluszny, Griffin and all kinds of good players who never get picked, I've finally decided to take a different approach to Pats draft evaluation this year. Instead of picking THE GUY who I think the Pats are going to select, I've decided to content myself with handicapping based on (1) who's likely to be there and (2) who's likely be perceived as "value" for the Pats.
Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #2 overall:
30% RB McFadden - he's a fit, regardless of what you think of Moroney
25% Trade Down - if Miami takes Dorsey, teams will move up to take McFadden
18% DE Long - mature prospect with 4 years playing in a 3-4 at Al Groh's hands
14% DT Dorsey - if Miami takes McFadden, BPA gives us elite depth on the interior line
12% OT Long - completes the OL for the history books, pushing Kaczur to into #3 swing tackle role
1% The Field - if no one wants to trade into the #2 spot, BB may just take the player he wants. Laurinaitis, Gholston, Ellis, Jenkins-- feasilbe, but would be a shocking reach at #2 overall
Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #5 overall:
15% DE Long - good value at #2, great value at #5 and he might just be there
15% Trade Down - trading back into the 8-12 range would still produce an elite starter
9% DL Ellis - underrated. Could play NT or any DL position for the Pats
8% ILB Laurinaitis - fits a chronic need
8% CB Jenkins (USF) - hard hitting replacement for Asante
8% The Field - lot of good players not listed here
8% OLB Gholston - very trendy pick for the Pats, but a reach at #5
6% OT Long - luxury pick, but unlikely to last this long
6% DE Campbell - downgraded because he's so raw... but looks good on paper!
6% CB Jenkins (OSU) - elite corner, but I need to know more before I bump him up higher
4% ILB Maualuga - assuming he declares
3% OLB Harvey - BB likes kids from Florida
2% Trade Up - long shot, but what if BB sees HOF potential in Dorsey or McFadden?
1% S Phillips - I dont like this kid for the Pats, but cant deny he's in the hunt
1% DT Dorsey - silly to think he'd last until #5... but stranger things have happened
*% RB McFadden - snowball's chance in hell
Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #2 overall:
30% RB McFadden - he's a fit, regardless of what you think of Moroney
25% Trade Down - if Miami takes Dorsey, teams will move up to take McFadden
18% DE Long - mature prospect with 4 years playing in a 3-4 at Al Groh's hands
14% DT Dorsey - if Miami takes McFadden, BPA gives us elite depth on the interior line
12% OT Long - completes the OL for the history books, pushing Kaczur to into #3 swing tackle role
1% The Field - if no one wants to trade into the #2 spot, BB may just take the player he wants. Laurinaitis, Gholston, Ellis, Jenkins-- feasilbe, but would be a shocking reach at #2 overall
Here's how I see the race breaking down, if the Pats select #5 overall:
15% DE Long - good value at #2, great value at #5 and he might just be there
15% Trade Down - trading back into the 8-12 range would still produce an elite starter
9% DL Ellis - underrated. Could play NT or any DL position for the Pats
8% ILB Laurinaitis - fits a chronic need
8% CB Jenkins (USF) - hard hitting replacement for Asante
8% The Field - lot of good players not listed here
8% OLB Gholston - very trendy pick for the Pats, but a reach at #5
6% OT Long - luxury pick, but unlikely to last this long
6% DE Campbell - downgraded because he's so raw... but looks good on paper!
6% CB Jenkins (OSU) - elite corner, but I need to know more before I bump him up higher
4% ILB Maualuga - assuming he declares
3% OLB Harvey - BB likes kids from Florida
2% Trade Up - long shot, but what if BB sees HOF potential in Dorsey or McFadden?
1% S Phillips - I dont like this kid for the Pats, but cant deny he's in the hunt
1% DT Dorsey - silly to think he'd last until #5... but stranger things have happened
*% RB McFadden - snowball's chance in hell