My projection of the 49ers pick, and why we will pick before Jets

[PromisedLand]

Here are the teams that could pass or be passed by the Niners in the picking order, (with their and their opponents' season W-L and last 5 W-L):

4-10 teams
BAL (4-10, 0-5): @SEA (9-5, 4-1), PIT (9-5, 2-3).
Projection: 0-2

OAK (4-10, 2-3): @JAC (10-4, 4-1), SD (9-5, 4-1).
Projection: 0-2.

KC (4-10, 0-5): @DET (6-8, 0-5, 6 GAME LOSING STREAK), @NYJ (3-11, 2-3)
Projection: 0-2.

SF (4-10, 2-3): TB (9-5, 4-1), @CLE (9-5, 4-1)
Projection: 0-2.

3-11 teams
ATL (3-11, 0-5): @ARI (6-8, 2-3), SEA (9-5, 4-1)
Projection: 0-2.

NYJ (3-11, 2-3): @TEN (8-6, 2-3), KC (4-10, 0-5)
Projection: 1-1.

STL (3-11, 2-3): PIT (9-5, 2-3), @ARI (6-8, 2-3)
Projection: 0-2.

Based on these projections the Jets will win their last game in the Herman Edward Bowl and will vault behind the 49ers in the draft, leaving the final order as:

#1 MIA (1-15)
#2 STL (3-13)
#3 ATL (3-13)
#4 NE from SF (4-12)
#5 NYJ (4-12)

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Nice analysis. I agree, esp about the Edwards Bowl. That game is huge for Mangini.

 

[PromisedLand]

Nice analysis. I agree, esp about the Edwards Bowl. That game is huge for Mangini.

Thanks - I just noticed I forgot to put in ATL's last 5 record - I'll edit my post.

 

[patsox23]

I CAN'T BELIEVE F-ing CINCY LOST TO SF. What a bunch of craptastyic, gutless, underachieving cowards.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Thanks - I just noticed I forgot to put in ATL's last 5 record - I'll edit my post.

I think your biggest risk is ARI winning out. I think they will.

 

[LloydBraun]

I predict St Louis will beat pitt on Thursday night and give them 4 wins. What will that then do to the top 5?

 

[patsfaninpa]

I predict St Louis will beat pitt on Thursday night and give them 4 wins. What will that then do to the top 5?

Would move us up to 3. SF has played an easier schedule than St L. The SF pick will at the top of whatever group they get tied with. Whether it be the group with 4,5 or 6 wins. Because SF has played an easier schedule than the other teams.

 

[ayjackson]

Here are the teams that could pass or be passed by the Niners in the picking order, (with their and their opponents' season W-L and last 5 W-L):

4-10 teams
BAL (4-10, 0-5): @SEA (9-5, 4-1), PIT (9-5, 2-3).
Projection: 0-2

OAK (4-10, 2-3): @JAC (10-4, 4-1), SD (9-5, 4-1).
Projection: 0-2.

KC (4-10, 0-5): @DET (6-8, 0-5, 6 GAME LOSING STREAK), @NYJ (3-11, 2-3)
Projection: 0-2.

SF (4-10, 2-3): TB (9-5, 4-1), @CLE (9-5, 4-1)
Projection: 0-2.

3-11 teams
ATL (3-11, 0-5): @ARI (6-8, 2-3), SEA (9-5, 4-1)
Projection: 0-2.

NYJ (3-11, 2-3): @TEN (8-6, 2-3), KC (4-10, 0-5)
Projection: 1-1.

STL (3-11, 2-3): PIT (9-5, 2-3), @ARI (6-8, 2-3)
Projection: 0-2.

Based on these projections the Jets will win their last game in the Herman Edward Bowl and will vault behind the 49ers in the draft, leaving the final order as:

#1 MIA (1-15)
#2 STL (3-13)
#3 ATL (3-13)
#4 NE from SF (4-12)
#5 NYJ (4-12)

The picks seem pretty safe, too. The only one I'd question is StL @ Ari. I think if Bulger and Jackson play, they win. That may move our pick to #3.

 

[ALP]

hmm,i see

well, i KNOW miami wont take mcfadden, and i know stl wont either...

and i imagine ATL will take a QB which they badly need...

so if we fall to 4....u think mcfadden will still be on the board? for that great trade with the boys?

 

[psychoPat]

Been thinkin about this exact subject ... on n off ... all day.
Thanks for clearing it up!

Only one of your predictions struck me amiss ... so not worth mentioning.

Someone pls remind me.
WHAT is Jerry Jones supposed to be willing to part with
to land that spindly-legged Razorback halfback ?

 

[sebman2112]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams actually win another game this season, as their playing a little better of late.

Agree on Baltimore, Oak, KC, SF, and ATL all going 0-2. The Jets should beat Kansas City, so it also seems your projection of 1-1 could be correct.

Now, if STL were to win one more game this season, would NE move up to 3rd overall? I don't know the difference in strength of schedule for the two teams.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams actually win another game this season, as their playing a little better of late.

Agree on Baltimore, Oak, KC, SF, and ATL all going 0-2. The Jets should beat Kansas City, so it also seems your projection of 1-1 could be correct.

Now, if STL were to win one more game this season, would NE move up to 3rd overall? I don't know the difference in strength of schedule for the two teams.

The only team in the top 10 with a comparable SOS to SF is Cincinnati.

 

[Deus Irae]

Detroit is reeling, so a Kansas City victory over the Lions is not out of the question.

 

[Fencer]

Interesting point on Jets/KC. I hope you're right.

On the other hand, when facing a bunch of his former players will Edwards be as much of an idiot as usual?

 

[fnordcircle]

The way I look at it is that if McFadden is on the board when the Patriots time to pick comes up, whatever that is, then good things are going to happen for this team. Either someone will give up a king's ransom for that pick or the FO will feel like he is enough of a game-changer to break the bank and draft him.

I like those projections. I don't think StL will win @ Arizona. Arizona has played well at home as I recall.

 

[spacecrime]

The way I look at it is that if McFadden is on the board when the Patriots time to pick comes up, whatever that is, then good things are going to happen for this team. Either someone will give up a king's ransom for that pick or the FO will feel like he is enough of a game-changer to break the bank and draft him.

Forget McFadden. Running backs cannot consistently carry a team. They are like running QBs like Vick. Franchise RBs are exciting as hell to watch, and can bust open a game or three during the season, but they cannot carry a team game after game.

You want a franchise QB and a stout defense, and a RB good enough to make play action work. Who were the RBs of the superbowl teams this decade, and were they the difference betweeen winning and losing?

2000 ?, defense made the difference
2001 Antowain Smith, defense made the difference
2002 Michael Pitman, defense made the difference
2003 Antowain Smith, defense made the difference
2004 Corey Dillon, QB the made difference
2005 Parker/Bettis, officials the made difference
2006 Addai/Rhodes, QB made the difference, with major help from a surprise defense

 

[JoePats]

2000 ?, defense made the difference

Jamal Lewis. Defense carried the team but he had to carry the offense.

 

[spacecrime]

Jamal Lewis. Defense carried the team but he had to carry the offense.

Yeah, I could remember Dilfer but not who ran. That year the Ravens defense was damn good, and hard to score against. Hard to win if you cann't score.

 

[PromisedLand]

Detroit is reeling, so a Kansas City victory over the Lions is not out of the question.

Except KC is barely above reeling, themselves.

The picks seem pretty safe, too. The only one I'd question is StL @ Ari. I think if Bulger and Jackson play, they win. That may move our pick to #3.

I agree there is a decent chance STL beat ARI. I projected ARI to win because they have a better overall record and will be playing at home.

I don't think STL will beat PIT. PIT is only 2-3 in the past 5 but the two losses are to NE and JAC. I think they will beat STL. They feast on weaker teams.

 

[Dragda]

I CAN'T BELIEVE F-ing CINCY LOST TO SF. What a bunch of craptastyic, gutless, underachieving cowards.

I was at that game on Saturday. I wasn't very popular with the drunken 49er fans. Cinncinati couldn't stop Gore when they had to. Their new QB played pretty well. I can't even remember his name. Definitely a step up from Dilfer and Alex Smith.