SF pick final result: #7

[carolinatony]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 12: SF pick #4)

#2 is great. I hope we can stay in the Top3.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Anybody care to actually keep a running SOS ranking??!!

I'm curious as to how secure SF's "lead" is by that tiebreak.

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Posted this in another thread, but since this one is stickied...

Here’s the remaining schedules for each of the 3 win teams…

49ers
MIN @ SF
CIN @ SF
TB @ SF
SF @ CLE

Falcons
NO @ ATL
ATL @ TB
ATL @ ARI
SEA @ ATL

Jets
CLE @ NYJ
NYJ @ NE
NYJ @ TEN
KC @ NYJ

Rams
STL @ CIN
GB @ STL
PIT @ STL
STL @ ARI

 

[LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Anybody care to actually keep a running SOS ranking??!!

I'm curious as to how secure SF's "lead" is by that tiebreak.

http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=24848&page=8

This thread on TheGangGreen.com (one of the few useful things on that site ) keeps track of the draft order and strength of schedules. Right now, SF has a pretty big SOS "lead" over every team but Atlanta.

Cincy is right there, too, but they have 1 more win than the 9ers. That game between SF and Cincy in 2 weeks should be pretty big, in terms of draft order implications.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Cleveland is going to have a huge impact on pick order.

This also illustrates that they have a very easy schedule.

St. Louis has a fairly tough schedule.

We need SF to lose out.

 

[Fencer]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=24848&page=8

This thread on TheGangGreen.com (one of the few useful things on that site ) keeps track of the draft order and strength of schedules. Right now, SF has a pretty big SOS "lead" over every team but Atlanta.

Cincy is right there, too, but they have 1 more win than the 9ers. That game between SF and Cincy in 2 weeks should be pretty big, in terms of draft order implications.

Do you know whether that's all 16 opponents or (stupidly) just the first 12? At first glance it looks like just the first 12, but I didn't focus on figuring out for sure.

 

[Mix]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Do you know whether that's all 16 opponents or (stupidly) just the first 12? At first glance it looks like just the first 12, but I didn't focus on figuring out for sure.

That is all 16.

The 49ers SOS keeps going up each week. Just from the early games today it is up to .481, it was at .419 after week 7.

EDIT: It's at .487 after the late afternoon games.

 

[SaCaCh]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

SF sched is going to get tough against some high % teams their SOS is going to go up fast!

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

SF sched is going to get tough against some high % teams their SOS is going to go up fast!

3 of 4 of the Jets' opponents are over .500 including a certain undefeated team that they get to play again.

Rams still get GB and Pitt and Arizona is right around .500.

SF has .500 Minnesota, around .500 Arizona, little over .500 Cleveland and pretty good TB.

I'd be surprised if SF doesn't have the worst SoS of the 3 when it's all over although it's a living stat for sure.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Since people asked for it, I figured I'd work it out. As of 8:00 PM EST on 12/2, here is the draft order, with SOS, for teams at 5-7 or below. Numbers in brackets represent SOS rank (1 = hardest); calculation includes all opponents, including games not yet played.

1 MIA .540 [5]

2 SF .487 [22]
3 NYJ .519
4 ATL .521
5 STL .524

6 OAK .500
7 KC .503

8 CIN .476 [25]
9 BAL .508

10 NO .479 [23]
11 HOU .510
12 DEN .529
13 CAR .536
14 CHI .552
15 PHI .565
16 WAS .571 [1]

By the way--New England's SOS is .470 [27].

 

[Fencer]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Since people asked for it, I figured I'd work it out. As of 8:00 PM EST on 12/2, here is the draft order, with SOS, for teams at 5-7 or below. Numbers in brackets represent SOS rank (1 = hardest); calculation includes all opponents, including games not yet played.

1 MIA .540 [5]

2 SF .487 [22]
3 NYJ .519
4 ATL .521
5 STL .524

6 OAK .500
7 KC .503

8 CIN .476 [25]
9 BAL .508

10 NO .479 [23]
11 HOU .510
12 DEN .529
13 CAR .536
14 CHI .552
15 PHI .565
16 WAS .571 [1]

By the way--New England's SOS is .470 [27].

Great stuff. So if SOS is on 12 * 16 games per team, that .31 edge the Niners have vs. the Jets is what -- 6 games?

Does anybody see any big trends in the SOS that are likely to reverse? The most obvious ones (e.g., Pats winning, Fins losing, with both counting heavily on the Jets' SOS) seem likely to just keep on.

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Great stuff. So if SOS is on 12 * 16 games per team, that .31 edge the Niners have vs. the Jets is what -- 6 games?

Does anybody see any big trends in the SOS that are likely to reverse? The most obvious ones (e.g., Pats winning, Fins losing, with both counting heavily on the Jets' SOS) seem likely to just keep on.

I didn't run the #'s, but I'll trust you. 6 game is pretty small, especially when lots of teams will be playing meaningless games the last couple of weeks. I think we are definitely the favorite to get the #2, but a big favorite to finish top 5, which is pretty awesome and I'll be happy with it.

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Here's this week's 3 win teams game lineup.

49ers
MIN @ SF

Falcons
NO @ ATL

Jets
CLE @ NYJ

Rams
STL @ CIN

 

[notex]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Here's this week's 3 win teams game lineup.

49ers
MIN @ SF

Falcons
NO @ ATL

Jets
CLE @ NYJ

Rams
STL @ CIN

49ers should lose...not sure what to think about the rest of the games...

that would be fantastic if we ended up with 1st overall, any chance of the Fins beating out the 49ers for worst record....that would be just hilarious

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

49ers should lose...not sure what to think about the rest of the games...

that would be fantastic if we ended up with 1st overall, any chance of the Fins beating out the 49ers for worst record....that would be just hilarious

Not likely, as they'd have to win 3 of their last 4.

 

[PatriotsDaily.com]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Everyweek on Patriots Daily, we're doing a feature called Niner Watch which will look at the latest draft standings.

The calculations include the Strength of Schedule formula.

Mike Reiss mentioned the Niner Watch feature in one of his recent mailbags.

That link above will always bring you to the latest edition of the standings.

 

[notex]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

If im not mistaken there are a number of teams sitting at 3-9 right now right? so one win for the niners while the rest of the "worst record" teams losing could swing that pick a couple of spots up ... am i right???

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

Falcons play on Monday Night, so if there's any reason for everyone to watch a seemingly horrible match up, it's for potential huge draft positioning.

It's actually their best shot at winning a game for the rest of the season. (With ARI in second, and possibly a Seahawks team playing for nothing in the last week)

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

One other thing I figured I'd add: looking at the Patriots' picks.

Right now, before accounting for the Super Bowl, the Pats' picks cannot be any higher than #23 in each round, since there are only nine other teams that can finish with fewer than four losses.

If the Patriots beat the Steelers on Sunday, the highest their picks could be will be #27 in each round (before adjusting for the SB).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 14: SF pick still #2)

OK, folks. Week 14 is essentially in the books, and the changes aren't huge.

Your "top twelve," with records, strength of schedule, and SOS rank (assuming BAL doesn't pull off the upset of all time) are as follows.

1 'lphins 0-13 .548 [4]
2 Patriots via SF 3-10 .481 [23]
3 Rams 3-10 .515 [10]
4 JEST 3-10 .524 [8]
5 Falcons 3-9 .515 [10]*
6/7 Chiefs/Raiders 4-9 .510 [15]**
8 Ravens 4-9 .514 [12]
9 Bengals 5-8 .466 [25]
10 Panthers 5-8 .534 [6]
11 Bears 5-8 .560 [3]
12 Iggles 5-8 .580 [1]
[. . .]
32 Patriots 13-0 .466 [25]

*If the Falcons lose, the JEST and Falcons will switch places. All other ranks in the top 12 remain the same (there are two other later flips). If the Falcons win, then they are tied with identical .510 SOSs with KC and OAK.
**This would require looking at conference/division records to break. Since there's still time, and things could change, I ain't bothering.