Red Sox, Twins Discussing Deal for Santana

[maverick4]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3133598

"The Red Sox and Twins are discussing the framework of a Johan Santana deal that would have Boston sending four players to Minnesota in return for the two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, pitcher Jon Lester and minor-league shortstop Jed Lowrie, the trio that would to anchor the deal. Red Sox pitcher Michael Bowden has been discussed as a possible fourth player, sources say, but the identity of the fourth player is in flux. Even if the Red Sox and Twins agree on the framework for a deal -- and as of early Thursday afternoon, that hadn't happened -- Boston would still face an enormous hurdle to complete the contract. Santana, who will be 29 at the outset of next season, has a full no-trade clause and is expected to ask for a market ceiling-type of contract of six years and about $150 million."
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If they can keep Ellsbury and Pedroia, it's a no brainer to me. Even the best pitching prospects are still a roll of the dice, I'd give up Lester, Bucholz, and Crisp in a heartbeat AND fork over the money to Santana.

 

[Boston Boxer]

do it now!!!!!!!

 

[maverick4]

"Crisp, 28, could fill the void created in Minnesota by the departure of center fielder Torii Hunter and is under contract for a reasonable salary in the years ahead -- $4.75 million next year, $5.75 million in 2009 and Boston holds a team option for 2010 of $8 million. Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million deal with the Angels last week.

Lester, 23, is 11-2 in 27 major-league appearances, with a 4.68 ERA, and threw well this year, his first year since fighting cancer. Lowrie, 23, hit .298 in 133 minor-league games in 2007 and finished the year with 40 games in Pawtucket, in which he compiled a .356 on-base percentage and .506 slugging percentage.

Bowden, 21, pitched for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs in 2007, finishing 10-6 with a 3.34 ERA overall. Red Sox prospects Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are considered untouchables in the Red Sox-Twins negotiations"

 

[bakes781]

$25mil/year is crazy but I guess by the end of the contract it won't seem so bad.

DO IT

 

[JoeSixPat]

Didn't you read the other thread?

The Twins aren't interested in trading Santana. It's a myth!

Seriously, one aspect that keeps coming up is people saying that we don't need Santana because we just won the World Series.

They forget that the reason we won this year is because we were better than our key rivals. They seem to be thinking in a vacuum, that as long as we stay the same we'll win again - but meanwhile our rivals are attempting to address their weakness - i.e. starting pitching, to get better than us.

If we keep our rivals weak and make ourselves stronger we'll win. If we keep ourselves the same and allow our rivals to get better, winning is very much in question.

So while folks around here seem to think that one can't factor the Yankees into our stratgey, its clear that that's exactly what Theo and the rest of the Red Sox brain trust are doing - whether its running up the price for the Yanks or in seriously bidding themselves.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

Oh noooooooo, What will we b*tch about when Coco leaves

 

[sdaniels7114]

Don't worry, we'll still have Julio Lugo to kick around.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Don't worry, we'll still have Julio Lugo to kick around.

Yeah, I was looking forward to Lowrie showing Lugo the door, but if the trade is as stated (Crisp, Lowrie, Masterson (who is a BEAST), and Lester for Santana) they HAVE TO MAKE IT. Plus it keeps him away from the Yankees.

 

[patsfanofNC12]

I like Lester, and want him to stay, but you just can't not take advantage of a great offer like this. Lester will be a 16-17 game winner in a season for most of his career, with maybe one 20 win season. But Santana is very well the best southpaw in the majors. But I think this trade comes down to if Santana will accept a long term deal in a certain price range.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

It almost sounds to good to be true, so the pessimist in me has me doubting this one.

 

[JoeSixPat]

It almost sounds to good to be true, so the pessimist in me has me doubting this one.

Well, as Free Ted Williams has told us, out of this crew Masterson might be the one that we lament we let "get away"

http://www.soxprospects.com/players/masterson-justin.htm

I can't say I've seen him pitch but he sounds like a potential intimidator if his control is good

The non-traditional delivery however can be a blessing or a curse sometimes

but overall, I'm not expecting to make a trade of quality for crap

 

[maverick4]

Masterson is a better version of Derek Lowe at best.

Seriously, prospects no matter how great, are still unknowns.
Look at how Prior and Wood turned out.
Look at how Armas and Pavano turned out (for Pedro).

 

[Foley]

Mastersons ceiling is closer to Brandon Webb than it is to Derek Lowe. Masterson has the ability to strike people out while being an extreme groundballer, while Lowe never had great strikeout numbers. If this trade goes down as advertised (which I doubt) Masterson will be the one that I'd be most disappointed to see go. But I'd still be happy with the deal.

 

[BradyManny]

I think folks are underestimating Lester. In his first two seasons as a MLB player, he's 11-2 with a 4.68 ERA, in 144.1 innings, with 110Ks. Keep in mind, he did this while losing about 3-5 MPH from his pre-cancer body.

For perspective, Johan Santana in his first two seasons was 3-3, with a 5.9 ERA, in 129.2 innings, with 92 Ks and 70 BBs (for comparison, Lester, who some fans have deemed wild, had 74 BBs in his first two seasons, while pitching 15 more innings than Santana).

What's this all mean? Likely not very much. Santana turned around and had a 2.99 ERA, 8-6 record in 108 IP the following season. Lester likely won't do that. But I'm pointing this out merely to show you that Lester's first two seasons are impressive - he was fighting off cancer one season and recovering it from the next. It robbed him of speed off of his fastball, with that speed back, if he can work on his command, he will become an effective #2 starter. And at worst, in his current form, he's a cheap, valuable #4 starter under the Sox control for quite some time.

Whereas Santana will require an enormously bloated & risky 6-7 year contract that will make it prohibitive to do what it takes to fill the holes we'll eventually have at 3B, catcher and LF. I just don't see how we can justify depleting our chips and spending all this money on something that right now is the opposite of a need when quite soon, we will have glaring needs in other areas.

 

[scout]

I think folks are underestimating Lester. In his first two seasons as a MLB player, he's 11-2 with a 4.68 ERA, in 144.1 innings, with 110Ks. Keep in mind, he did this while losing about 3-5 MPH from his pre-cancer body.

For perspective, Johan Santana in his first two seasons was 3-3, with a 5.9 ERA, in 129.2 innings, with 92 Ks and 70 BBs (for comparison, Lester, who some fans have deemed wild, had 74 BBs in his first two seasons, while pitching 15 more innings than Santana).

What's this all mean? Likely not very much. Santana turned around and had a 2.99 ERA, 8-6 record in 108 IP the following season. Lester likely won't do that. But I'm pointing this out merely to show you that Lester's first two seasons are impressive - he was fighting off cancer one season and recovering it from the next. It robbed him of speed off of his fastball, with that speed back, if he can work on his command, he will become an effective #2 starter. And at worst, in his current form, he's a cheap, valuable #4 starter under the Sox control for quite some time.

Whereas Santana will require an enormously bloated & risky 6-7 year contract that will make it prohibitive to do what it takes to fill the holes we'll eventually have at 3B, catcher and LF. I just don't see how we can justify depleting our chips and spending all this money on something that right now is the opposite of a need when quite soon, we will have glaring needs in other areas.

I'm not close to the cliff if the Yankees sign Santana. If you factor into the equation, that the Sox pushed them into including Huges, who would be a starter in their rotation, and add the other assets in the deal. I'd rather see how all the youngsters develop before moaning about not having Santana.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'm not close to the cliff if the Yankees sign Santana. If you factor into the equation, that the Sox pushed them into including Huges, who would be a starter in their rotation, and add the other assets in the deal. I'd rather see how all the youngsters develop before moaning about not having Santana.

I've got no doubt that the Sox seriously want Santana - but even if they didn't they'd be playing their cards exactly the way they are.

But whether its Hughes or Lester or Bucholz - any or all of them could be Hall of Famers, or busts.

With Santana, barring injury, we know what we're getting. An all star 2nd ace on the rotation, leaving the Yankees even more desparate than before.

And yes, while the Sox certainly did push the Yankees to give up their top prospect, as of this season they are stronger with Santana than without - Hughes isn't really part of that equation.

 

[JoeSixPat]

As of now, I'd agree with this Yankees source that if the Red Sox don't add in Bucholz (no way would they add Elsbury) the Yankees are getting Santana.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spyanks1202,0,5764906.story

But I think I'd add Bucholtz if I were Epstein.

 

[Patti37]

As of now, I'd agree with this Yankees source that if the Red Sox don't add in Bucholz (no way would they add Elsbury) the Yankees are getting Santana.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spyanks1202,0,5764906.story

But I think I'd add Bucholtz if I were Epstein.

I am in agreement...I would add Bucholtz but not Ellsbury. Santana is the best left hander in the game...will some run support (which he didn't have in Minnesota this year) he will a 1B ace.

However, it looks to me that at the moment the Yankees offer is better especially without Ellsbury in the mix. Melky Cabrera is not only a great defensive centerfielder but has some offensive power as well. Hughes and Kennedy have tremendous upside.

 

[BradyManny]

As of now, I'd agree with this Yankees source that if the Red Sox don't add in Bucholz (no way would they add Elsbury) the Yankees are getting Santana.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-spyanks1202,0,5764906.story

But I think I'd add Bucholtz if I were Epstein.

I still strongly disagree - Buchholz is going to cost a fraction of what Santana will for the next 5+ years, and by all accounts, could very well wind up being an ace. Even if he only gives you 60% of what Santana does, let's say for instance Buchholz has averages a 4 ERA, 15 wins over the next 5 seasons - the value in that is too great to give up for Santana. The fact that Santana replaces him in the rotation is besides the point, I'd rather give up a different piece. Buchholz is so low risk and so high ceiling.

 

[Foley]

I know its difficult to gauge the value of Buchholz over Ellsbury considering Ellsbury was give the ability to play more, but don't let Ellsbury's playoff success make people underrate Buchholz.

Buchholz was just ranked the 6th best prospect in baseball (Ellsbury - 13th). Buchholz has the career minor league numbers of an ace: he has better numbers than Papelbon, Lester, Anibal Sanchez and any other Red Sox prospect to have success in the majors the past decade. He also has better career minor league numbers than Roy Oswalt, John Lackey, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Jake Peavy, and many other current MLB Aces. That is obviously not to say Buchholz will be better than any of those players, but he has the ability to be mentioned in their company if he reaches his ceiling.

As I said earlier, unless Ellsbury plays well above what he did in the minors while Buchholz plays way below what he did, Buchholz should be the more valuable player.