Random Thoughts

[Oswlek]

On the loss of Colvin:

It seems to be a consensus among the media and fans that AD is going to slide inside, but I am not too sure. I can absolutely see it happening, maybe even a majority of the time, but I just don't see the team leaning on Bruschi and Seau that hard. I fully expect AD to man the middle quite a bit more than people expect and NE to use Woods and Brown (Chad, not Troy ) at OLB. I don't see Brown playing the middle much at all unless the game is completely out of hand. I have heard many people discuss that, but I think that they are being swayed by how he was used on 2005 when ILB was completely empty. Even in that season, Brown shifted to the outside once Vrabel and Bruschi took over. Hell, Brown played solely on the outside even in the Jax game when Bruschi was out.

On Troy:

I have a funny feeling that Brown is going to be surprisingly involved in the offense. Troy is definitely slowing down and he clearly couldn't handle being the #1 option, even it was just on key downs like last year. But this team is different. Brown is still an extremely valuable guy out there who can beat every single LB or #3 CB in the entire league - and most safeties as well. I fully expect the team to find packages that give him an opportunity to help this team.

Even despite this, Brown will likely be worked into games where NE has a lead to give Welker some breathers. The WRs still need to work with Brady, but Wes really takes a beating out there.

On Baltimore:

I have said this before, but don't expect NE to be much more balanced than they were last week. Baltimore is awesome against the run at #1 in ypc allowed and #2 (despite a 4-7 record) at total yardage allowed. On the other hand, they are 26th in passing ypa allowed and 25th in defensive passer rating. NE will pass, pass, pass and pass some more. I fully expect the OL to bounce back from a mediocre performance and give Brady plenty of time against a Ravens defense that isn't quite what people think it is anymore.

I'm sure that I am forgetting something, but I have to get going.

 

[makewayhomer]

On the loss of Colvin:

It seems to be a consensus among the media and fans that AD is going to slide inside, but I am not too sure. I can absolutely see it happening, maybe even a majority of the time, but I just don't see the team leaning on Bruschi and Seau that hard. I fully expect AD to man the middle quite a bit more than people expect and NE to use Woods and Brown (Chad, not Troy ) at OLB.

did you mean to say "outside" in your first sentence?

On Baltimore:

I have said this before, but don't expect NE to be much more balanced than they were last week. Baltimore is awesome against the run at #1 in ypc allowed and #2 (despite a 4-7 record) at total yardage allowed. On the other hand, they are 26th in passing ypa allowed and 25th in defensive passer rating. NE will pass, pass, pass and pass some more. I fully expect the OL to bounce back from a mediocre performance and give Brady plenty of time against a Ravens defense that isn't quite what people think it is anymore.

agree with some of this. Baltimore is average against the pass, great against the run. (DVOA rank)

on balance, they are still a great D, though, top 5 in the league.

they are extremely weak vs. TE's (31st in the league), so look for Watson to have a big game. and 29th vs #2 Wr's, so look for Stallworth or welker to be big. Moss may be due for another quite day - they are 5th vs #1 WR's

 

[PonyExpress]

Troy is Welker insurance. If Welker goes down Troy is a downgrade but a serviceable slot replacement, assuming he plays at last season's level. As far as the LBs go... I'm not high on E. Alexander but I thought he showed some strength and burst I hadn't seen before in the preseason. Assuming he's actually healthy again I wonder if he'll enter the ILB rotation over Brown. How much Woods plays, if at all, will be intriguing. He's always in the mix on special teams, hits hard, is not afraid of contact and violence, but didn't show the kind of strength necessary for important snaps in the preseason. He would get ragdolled by Ogden, as would Brown. So I would play AD at OLB this game.

Monday Night is going to be a very tough one, much more than some fans think IMO. McCallister is back, JJohnson will play, the #3 safety is back, the Raven defense has its back against the wall and will be looking for blood. They will play to cause pain in this game, and if the Pats get out of there with a 3 point win and their health in my book it will be a major success.

 

[Oswlek]

did you mean to say "outside" in your first sentence?


agree with some of this. Baltimore is average against the pass, great against the run. (DVOA rank)

on balance, they are still a great D, though, top 5 in the league.

they are extremely weak vs. TE's (31st in the league), so look for Watson to have a big game. and 29th vs #2 Wr's, so look for Stallworth or welker to be big. Moss may be due for another quite day - they are 5th vs #1 WR's

Of course. :bricks:

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

VERY windy conditions predicted for game time. If this is an accurate prediction, how effective can the Pats medium-long passing game be in those conditions?

 

[xmarkd400x]

VERY windy conditions predicted for game time. If this is an accurate prediction, how effective can the Pats medium-long passing game be in those conditions?

I say they just chuck it up into the wind and let moss snag it in his teeth.

 

[BelichickFan]

On the loss of Colvin:

It seems to be a consensus among the media and fans that AD is going to slide outside, but I am not too sure. I can absolutely see it happening, maybe even a majority of the time, but I just don't see the team leaning on Bruschi and Seau that hard. I fully expect AD to man the middle quite a bit more than people expect and NE to use Woods and Brown (Chad, not Troy ) at OLB.

It will be very interesting to see if Woods plays much. He's been with the team for almost two full years now; if he gets almost no time at OLB given the current situation I'll start to think that he's a career special teamer; I know Belichick likes veterans but there comes a time that if you can play you can play and hopefully that's the case with Woods.

Monday Night is going to be a very tough one, much more than some fans think IMO. McCallister is back, JJohnson will play, the #3 safety is back, the Raven defense has its back against the wall and will be looking for blood. They will play to cause pain in this game, and if the Pats get out of there with a 3 point win and their health in my book it will be a major success.

McAlister and Rolle are both likely to play but they've been in and out, I'm not sure the player will match the name on the back of the uniform.

The same might be the case for S. Holmes and Polamalu next week, btw, as they're both doubtful for this week.

VERY windy conditions predicted for game time. If this is an accurate prediction, how effective can the Pats medium-long passing game be in those conditions?

The current forecast I saw :

http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USMD0018?dayNum=3

has the wind dying down in the evening/night, from 24 MPH to 15 MPH. It could have an effect but doesn't sound too bad - if that forecast holds up.

 

[Fanfrom1960]

VERY windy conditions predicted for game time. If this is an accurate prediction, how effective can the Pats medium-long passing game be in those conditions?

The weather people can confidently predict this far in advance on the East Coast? My how things have changed!

 

[teamplay]

On Troy:

I have a funny feeling that Brown is going to be surprisingly involved in the offense.

I've been thinking the same thing. Troy may be inactive for a week or two, but at some point there are going to be packages that Troy's involved with. What's to say, for example, that we don't go with two slot receivers in certain situations. Troy will not just spell WW; he'll have a particular role.

What I especially admire about the Pats is that all 45 guys who dress...they play...and not just token rotation, but meaningful, tactical specialties.

Good stuff!

 

[thunder509s]

I believe AD will still maintain his inside position at LB rotation, maybe a few spots opposite Vrabel. I see Chad Brown playing mostly opposite Vrabel as he is about as good as Alexander in the middle. He has good quickness like Vrabel from the outside to either put pressure on the QB or attack the ball.

I see Troy splitting time with Stallworth and not Welker. I see Gaffney as the best replacement to give Welker some breathers. I see Troy also playing defensive backfield quite a bit as The Pats secondary was tore to peices by Feeley down the middle of the field. If you remember Troys time as defensive back, he pretty much shutdown the inside routes. Very versitile. Go back to the Chargers game last year with the INT and immediate strip by Troy. Extremely heads-up play.

I see Jackson and Washington filling in to give Moss, Stallworth breathers.

Unfortunately, I've looked at the cap figures for Dante' and unless he renegotiates down for next year, he'll be one and done with the Pats. Jackson would have to take his position. Then again, The Moss signing is a big question mark as well...That leaves Jackson, Washington, Welker and Gaffney to possibly be the future WR Corps.

These are just my thoughts. BB has more intelligence in his little pinky than I do in my whole body. I'm sure he'll do what's best for the team and keep them on track!

In BB I trust! Go Pats!!!!!

 

[Oswlek]

Troy is Welker insurance. If Welker goes down Troy is a downgrade but a serviceable slot replacement, assuming he plays at last season's level. As far as the LBs go... I'm not high on E. Alexander but I thought he showed some strength and burst I hadn't seen before in the preseason. Assuming he's actually healthy again I wonder if he'll enter the ILB rotation over Brown. How much Woods plays, if at all, will be intriguing. He's always in the mix on special teams, hits hard, is not afraid of contact and violence, but didn't show the kind of strength necessary for important snaps in the preseason. He would get ragdolled by Ogden, as would Brown. So I would play AD at OLB this game.

Monday Night is going to be a very tough one, much more than some fans think IMO. McCallister is back, JJohnson will play, the #3 safety is back, the Raven defense has its back against the wall and will be looking for blood. They will play to cause pain in this game, and if the Pats get out of there with a 3 point win and their health in my book it will be a major success.

I would always take a three point win with no injuries. Despite the forecast, though, I don't expect this game to be nearly as difficult as you seem to.

This team isn't who they used to be.

 

[Oswlek]

A couple addendums:

With regard to Colvins loss, a lot will fall on the offense. If they can continue to set the tone, NE will be able to play 3-3-5 nickle for much of the games. That would allow them to use the AD-Seau-Bruschi-Vrabel lineup early on and then rotate between them over the second half of the game.

Just a really random prediction: I have a funny feeling that NE will use a flea-flicker at some point in the first half of this game. The Ravens are very proud of their run D (does anyone recall his presser after the Pitt game where he chastised for the Steelers for "going after [their] young guys" in the secondary? It was as if he thought Pitt should have been more macho and ran into a brick wall )....

So, as I was saying, Baltimore is proud of their run D and I think that NE might take advantage of their over-aggressiveness.

 

[PonyExpress]

I would always take a three point win with no injuries. Despite the forecast, though, I don't expect this game to be nearly as difficult as you seem to.

This team isn't who they used to be.

I hate it when I'm right. Why couldn't you be right this time?

 

[Oswlek]

Monday Night is going to be a very tough one, much more than some fans think IMO. McCallister is back, JJohnson will play, the #3 safety is back, the Raven defense has its back against the wall and will be looking for blood. They will play to cause pain in this game, and if the Pats get out of there with a 3 point win and their health in my book it will be a major success.

I would always take a three point win with no injuries. Despite the forecast, though, I don't expect this game to be nearly as difficult as you seem to.

This team isn't who they used to be.

Bump for crow eating on my part.

Mmmmmmm! :bricks:

 

[Oswlek]

I hate it when I'm right. Why couldn't you be right this time?

Didn't even notice this. Nice call.