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I did this last year, but I figured I'd update it for this year. [I will try to update this once a week; I hope one of the mods will sticky this.]
The rules are relatively straightforward.
(1a) The SB winner is assigned pick #32 in every round (excluding compensatory picks).
(1b) The SB loser is assigned pick #31 in every round.
(2) All remaining teams are then sorted by W/L percentage, regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not.
Example: In the 2007 draft, the 8-8 Giants, who made the playoffs, picked before the 9-7 Broncos, who did not.
(3) Among teams from step (2) with identical records, teams are ranked as follows:
(3a) Teams that don't make the playoffs are placed ahead of teams that do make the playoffs.
(3b) Teams that don't make the playoffs are then ranked in increasing order of strength of schedule. [The logic here is that the worse a team's opponents did, the better a team should do.]
(3c) Teams that do make the playoffs are ranked by the order in which they exit the playoffs. If two teams exit in the same stage, they are then ranked by SOS.
Example: A 12-4 team that loses its first playoff game will pick before a 12-4 team that reaches a conference championship, even if the latter team has a weaker SOS.
(3d) If SOS is tied, divisional and/or conference records are used, if possible.
(3e) If two teams remain tied, a coin toss is used.
Example: In the 2007 draft, CLE and TB finished with identical records and identical SOS. Since they were in different conferences, the tiebreakers in 3d could not be used, so a coin toss was held.
At this point, all teams should be ranked from 1 to 32.
(4) For rounds two through seven, with the exception of the SB teams, all rankings cycle within their respective groupings.
Example: In 2007, NYJ, PHI, and NO all finished at 10-6, and all made the playoffs; using rule (3c), the final order for round one was NYJ-PHI-NO. In round two, the pick order was PHI-NO-NYJ; in round three, NO-NYJ-PHI, and so on through the remaining rounds.
* * * * *
As of the end of Week 11, only rules 2 and 3b have any bearing on the SF pick:
(2) SF currently must pick after 0-10 MIA, and ahead of all teams at 3-7 or better, as part of a four-team group consisting of NYJ, OAK, SF, and STL.
(3b) Since SF has the weakest SOS of any 2-8 team, it has the first pick among them; since there is only one team with a record worse than 2-8, that gives the Patriots the #2 pick in the draft.
As for week 12--the pick cannot move to #1; the only way the pick can move down is if SF wins against ARI. If that happens, the worst the pick can drop should be to #5.
The rules are relatively straightforward.
(1a) The SB winner is assigned pick #32 in every round (excluding compensatory picks).
(1b) The SB loser is assigned pick #31 in every round.
(2) All remaining teams are then sorted by W/L percentage, regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not.
Example: In the 2007 draft, the 8-8 Giants, who made the playoffs, picked before the 9-7 Broncos, who did not.
(3) Among teams from step (2) with identical records, teams are ranked as follows:
(3a) Teams that don't make the playoffs are placed ahead of teams that do make the playoffs.
(3b) Teams that don't make the playoffs are then ranked in increasing order of strength of schedule. [The logic here is that the worse a team's opponents did, the better a team should do.]
(3c) Teams that do make the playoffs are ranked by the order in which they exit the playoffs. If two teams exit in the same stage, they are then ranked by SOS.
Example: A 12-4 team that loses its first playoff game will pick before a 12-4 team that reaches a conference championship, even if the latter team has a weaker SOS.
(3d) If SOS is tied, divisional and/or conference records are used, if possible.
(3e) If two teams remain tied, a coin toss is used.
Example: In the 2007 draft, CLE and TB finished with identical records and identical SOS. Since they were in different conferences, the tiebreakers in 3d could not be used, so a coin toss was held.
At this point, all teams should be ranked from 1 to 32.
(4) For rounds two through seven, with the exception of the SB teams, all rankings cycle within their respective groupings.
Example: In 2007, NYJ, PHI, and NO all finished at 10-6, and all made the playoffs; using rule (3c), the final order for round one was NYJ-PHI-NO. In round two, the pick order was PHI-NO-NYJ; in round three, NO-NYJ-PHI, and so on through the remaining rounds.
* * * * *
As of the end of Week 11, only rules 2 and 3b have any bearing on the SF pick:
(2) SF currently must pick after 0-10 MIA, and ahead of all teams at 3-7 or better, as part of a four-team group consisting of NYJ, OAK, SF, and STL.
(3b) Since SF has the weakest SOS of any 2-8 team, it has the first pick among them; since there is only one team with a record worse than 2-8, that gives the Patriots the #2 pick in the draft.
As for week 12--the pick cannot move to #1; the only way the pick can move down is if SF wins against ARI. If that happens, the worst the pick can drop should be to #5.
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